Selection of artemisinin partial resistance Kelch13 mutations in Uganda in 2016-22 was at a rate comparable to that seen previously in South-East Asia.

Background: Artemisinin partial resistance, mediated by mutations in the Plasmodium falciparum Kelch13 protein (K13), rapidly spread in South-East Asia (SEA), undermining antimalarial efficacies of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT). Validated K13 mutations have recently arisen in Africa, but rates of increase are not well characterized. Methods: We investigated K13 mutation prevalence at 16 sites in Uganda (2016-2022, 6586 samples), and five sites in SEA (2003-2018, 5465 samples) by calculating selection coefficients using Bayesian mixed-effect linear models. We then tested whether SEA K13 mutation prevalence could have been forecast accurately using up to the first five years of available data and forecast future K13 mutation prevalence in Uganda. Findings: The selection coefficient for the prevalence of relevant K13 mutations (441L, 469F/Y, 561H, 675V) was estimated at s=0·383 (95% CrI: 0·247 - 0·528) per year, a 38% relative prevalence increase. Selection coefficients across Uganda were s=0·968 (0·463 - 1·569) for 441L, s=0·153 (-0·445 - 0·727) for 469F, s=0·222 (-0·011 - 0·398) for 469Y, and s=0·152 (-0·023 - 0·312) for 675V. In SEA, the selection coefficient was s=-0·005 (-0·852 - 0·814) for 539T, s=0·574 (-0·092 - 1·201) for 580Y, and s=0·308 (0·089 - 0·536) for all validated K13 mutations. Forecast prevalences for Uganda assuming constant selection neared fixation (>95% prevalence) within a decade (2028-2033) for combined K13 mutations. Interpretation: The selection of K13 mutations in Uganda was at a comparable rate to that observed in SEA, suggesting K13 mutations may continue to increase quickly in Uganda. Funding: NIH R01AI156267, R01AI075045, and R01AI089674.

Global risk of selection and spread of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 gene deletions.

In the thirteen years since the first report of pfhrp2-deleted parasites in 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) has found that 40 of 47 countries surveyed worldwide have reported pfhrp2/3 gene deletions. Due to a high prevalence of pfhrp2/3 deletions causing false-negative HRP2 RDTs, in the last five years, Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia have switched or started switching to using alternative RDTs, that target pan-specific-pLDH or P. falciparum specific-pLDH alone of in combination with HRP2. However, manufacturing of alternative RDTs has not been brought to scale and there are no WHO prequalified combination tests that use Pf-pLDH instead of HRP2 for P. falciparum detection. For these reasons, the continued spread of pfhrp2/3 deletions represents a growing public health crisis that threatens efforts to control and eliminate P. falciparum malaria. National malaria control programmes, their implementing partners and test developers desperately seek pfhrp2/3 deletion data that can inform their immediate and future resource allocation. In response, we use a mathematical modelling approach to evaluate the global risk posed by pfhrp2/3 deletions and explore scenarios for how deletions will continue to spread in Africa. We incorporate current best estimates of the prevalence of pfhrp2/3 deletions and conduct a literature review to estimate model parameters known to impact the selection of pfhrp2/3 deletions for each malaria endemic country. We identify 20 countries worldwide to prioritise for surveillance and future deployment of alternative RDT, based on quickly selecting for pfhrp2/3 deletions once established. In scenarios designed to explore the continued spread of deletions in Africa, we identify 10 high threat countries that are most at risk of deletions both spreading to and subsequently being rapidly selected for. If HRP2-based RDTs continue to be relied on for malaria case management, we predict that the major route for pfhrp2 deletions to spread is south out from the current hotspot in the Horn of Africa, moving through East Africa over the next 20 years. We explore the variation in modelled timelines through an extensive parameter sensitivity analysis and despite wide uncertainties, we identify three countries that have not yet switched RDTs (Senegal, Zambia and Kenya) that are robustly identified as high risk for pfhrp2/3 deletions. These results provide a refined and updated prediction model for the emergence of pfhrp2/3 deletions in an effort to help guide pfhrp2/3 policy and prioritise future surveillance efforts and innovation.

Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines have reduced severe disease and death from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, with evidence of waning efficacy coupled with continued evolution of the virus, health programmes need to evaluate the requirement for regular booster doses, considering their impact and cost-effectiveness in the face of ongoing transmission and substantial infection-induced immunity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a combined immunological-transmission model parameterised with data on transmissibility, severity, and vaccine effectiveness. We simulated Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and vaccine rollout in characteristic global settings with different population age-structures, contact patterns, health system capacities, prior transmission, and vaccine uptake. We quantified the impact of future vaccine booster dose strategies with both ancestral and variant-adapted vaccine products, while considering the potential future emergence of new variants with modified transmission, immune escape, and severity properties. We found that regular boosting of the oldest age group (75+) is an efficient strategy, although large numbers of hospitalisations and deaths could be averted by extending vaccination to younger age groups. In countries with low vaccine coverage and high infection-derived immunity, boosting older at-risk groups was more effective than continuing primary vaccination into younger ages in our model. Our study is limited by uncertainty in key parameters, including the long-term durability of vaccine and infection-induced immunity as well as uncertainty in the future evolution of the virus. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling suggests that regular boosting of the high-risk population remains an important tool to reduce morbidity and mortality from current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our results suggest that focusing vaccination in the highest-risk cohorts will be the most efficient (and hence cost-effective) strategy to reduce morbidity and mortality.

Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach.

With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

coiaf: Directly estimating complexity of infection with allele frequencies.

In malaria, individuals are often infected with different parasite strains. The complexity of infection (COI) is defined as the number of genetically distinct parasite strains in an individual. Changes in the mean COI in a population have been shown to be informative of changes in transmission intensity with a number of probabilistic likelihood and Bayesian models now developed to estimate the COI. However, rapid, direct measures based on heterozygosity or FwS do not properly represent the COI. In this work, we present two new methods that use easily calculated measures to directly estimate the COI from allele frequency data. Using a simulation framework, we show that our methods are computationally efficient and comparably accurate to current approaches in the literature. Through a sensitivity analysis, we characterize how the distribution of parasite densities, the assumed sequencing depth, and the number of sampled loci impact the bias and accuracy of our two methods. Using our developed methods, we further estimate the COI globally from Plasmodium falciparum sequencing data and compare the results against the literature. We show significant differences in the estimated COI globally between continents and a weak relationship between malaria prevalence and COI.

Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.

Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.

Lessons from COVID-19 for rescalable data collection.

Novel data and analyses have had an important role in informing the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing surveillance systems were scaled up, and in some instances new systems were developed to meet the challenges posed by the magnitude of the pandemic. We describe the routine and novel data that were used to address urgent public health questions during the pandemic, underscore the challenges in sustainability and equity in data generation, and highlight key lessons learnt for designing scalable data collection systems to support decision making during a public health crisis. As countries emerge from the acute phase of the pandemic, COVID-19 surveillance systems are being scaled down. However, SARS-CoV-2 resurgence remains a threat to global health security; therefore, a minimal cost-effective system needs to remain active that can be rapidly scaled up if necessary. We propose that a retrospective evaluation to identify the cost-benefit profile of the various data streams collected during the pandemic should be on the scientific research agenda.

Therapeutic response to artemisinin combination therapies among individuals with Plasmodium falciparum single infection vs mixed Plasmodium species infections: a retrospective posthoc analysis in Kisumu County, western Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the treatment response of mixed vs single-species Plasmodium falciparum infections to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A total of 1211 blood samples collected on days 0, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, and 42 from 173 individuals enrolled in two randomized ACT efficacy studies were tested for malaria using 18s ribosomal RNA-based real-time polymerase chain reaction. All recurrent parasitemia were characterized for Plasmodium species composition and time to reinfection during 42-day follow-up compared across ACTs. RESULTS: Day 0 samples had 71.1% (116/163) single P. falciparum infections and 28.2% (46/163) coinfections. A total of 54.0% (88/163) of individuals tested positive for Plasmodium at least once between days 7-42. A total of 19.3% (17/88) of individuals with recurrent infections were infected with a different Plasmodium species than observed at day 0, with 76.5% (13/17) of these "hidden" infections appearing after clearing P. falciparum present at day 0. Artesunate-mefloquine (16.4 hours) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (17.6 hours) had increased clearance rates over artemether-lumefantrine (21.0 hours). Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine exhibited the longest duration of reinfection prophylaxis. Cure rates were comparable across each species composition. CONCLUSION: No differences in clearance rates were found depending on whether the infection contained species other than P. falciparum. Significantly longer durations of protection were observed for individuals treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine.

Examining the Early Distribution of the Artemisinin-Resistant Plasmodium falciparum kelch13 R561H Mutation in Areas of Higher Transmission in Rwanda.

Background: Artemisinin resistance mutations in Plasmodium falciparum kelch13 (Pfk13) have begun to emerge in Africa, with Pfk13-R561H being the first reported in Rwanda in 2014, but limited sampling left questions about its early distribution and origin. Methods: We genotyped P. falciparum positive dried blood spot (DBS) samples from a nationally representative 2014-2015 Rwanda Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) HIV study. DBS were subsampled from DHS sampling clusters with >15% P. falciparum prevalence, as determined by rapid testing or microscopy done during the DHS study (n clusters = 67, n samples = 1873). Results: We detected 476 parasitemias among 1873 residual blood spots from a 2014-2015 Rwanda Demographic Health Survey. We sequenced 351 samples: 341/351 were wild-type (97.03% weighted), and 4 samples (1.34% weighted) harbored R561H that were significantly spatially clustered. Other nonsynonymous mutations found were V555A (3), C532W (1), and G533A (1). Conclusions: Our study better defines the early distribution of R561H in Rwanda. Previous studies only observed the mutation in Masaka as of 2014, but our study indicates its presence in higher-transmission regions in the southeast of the country at that time.

Diagnosis and management of vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome: Experience of the UK national diagnostic service, Sheffield.

The UK National Diagnostic Service for Ehlers-Danlos Syndromes (EDS) was established in 2009 for the rare types of EDS. Vascular EDS (vEDS) is an inherited connective tissue disorder caused by pathogenic variants in the COL3A1 gene. Associated tissue fragility affects multiple organ systems, increasing the risk of blood vessel dissection and rupture, with potentially fatal consequences. The diagnosis of vEDS has improved with advances in genetic testing, however this is most often suspected following an acute event. We provide data on the clinical features of vEDS for 180 patients (full cohort) seen in our service with confirmed molecular diagnoses. Increased awareness of this rare condition will prompt genetic testing essential to confirm the diagnosis. Outcomes are improved by early diagnosis followed by appropriate management. Fragile connective tissues make invasive procedures potentially dangerous, particularly in an emergency setting. Lifestyle advice from a young age can help acceptance and understanding of the diagnosis and inform choices. There is currently limited evidence for the use of drug therapy to reduce vascular events. We report on the incidence of vascular events in 126 patients (statistical analysis cohort) in our care and the use of medication. Our retrospective data showed that those patients on a long-term angiotensin II receptor blocker and/or beta-blocker had fewer vascular events than those not on cardiac medication who received the same lifestyle and emergency care advice.

The efficacy of low molecular weight heparin is reduced in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: A significant degree of mortality and morbidity in COVID-19 is through thromboembolic complications, only partially mitigated by anticoagulant therapy. Reliable markers of infection severity are not fully established. OBJECTIVES: This study investigated whether visco-elastic biomarkers predict disease severity on presentation to the Emergency Department (ED) and how they measure response to anticoagulationMETHODS:Patients testing positive for COVID-19 at a large University Teaching Hospital ED were recruited at presentation. Multiple blood samples were taken throughout hospital admission to monitor disease progression with end outcome recorded. Visco-elastic markers, fractal dimension (df) and Time to Gel Point (TGP) which measure the properties of the incipient clot were compared in patients with and without anticoagulation by Low Molecular Weight Heparin (LMWH). RESULTS: TGP and df did not predict severity of infection with COVID-19. Although LMWH prolonged TGP, there was no change in df indicating LMWH did not change clot microstructure. CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic efficacy of LMWH appears blunted in COVID-19 infection. This may be due to the inflammatory state creating a resistance to LMWH activity, which may explain why LMWH appears less effective in COVID-19 compared to other disease states. COVID-19 was not predicted by visco-elastic testing at the time of ED presentation.

Malaria Transmission Dynamics in a High-Transmission Setting of Western Kenya and the Inadequate Treatment Response to Artemether-Lumefantrine in an Asymptomatic Population.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the infectious reservoir is critical in malaria control and elimination strategies. We conducted a longitudinal epidemiological study in a high-malaria-burden region in Kenya to characterize transmission in an asymptomatic population. METHODS: 488 study participants encompassing all ages in 120 households within 30 clusters were followed for 1 year with monthly sampling. Malaria was diagnosed by microscopy and molecular methods. Transmission potential in gametocytemic participants was assessed using direct skin and/or membrane mosquito feeding assays, then treated with artemether-lumefantrine. Study variables were assessed using mixed-effects generalized linear models. RESULTS: Asexual and sexual parasite data were collected from 3792 participant visits, with 903 linked with feeding assays. Univariate analysis revealed that the 6-11-year-old age group was at higher risk of harboring asexual and sexual infections than those <6 years old (odds ratio [OR] 1.68, P < .001; and OR 1.81, P < .001), respectively. Participants with submicroscopic parasitemia were at a lower risk of gametocytemia compared with microscopic parasitemia (OR 0.04, P < .001), but they transmitted at a significantly higher rate (OR 2.00, P = .002). A large proportion of the study population who were infected at least once remained infected (despite treatment) with asexual (71.7%, 291/406) or sexual (37.4%, 152/406) parasites. 88.6% (365/412) of feeding assays conducted in individuals who failed treatment the previous month resulted in transmissions. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with asymptomatic infection sustain the transmission cycle, with the 6-11-year age group serving as an important reservoir. The high rates of artemether-lumefantrine treatment failures suggest surveillance programs using molecular methods need to be expanded for accurate monitoring and evaluation of treatment outcomes.

Pre-existing partner-drug resistance to artemisinin combination therapies facilitates the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance: a consensus modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum have now emerged a minimum of six times on three continents despite recommendations that all artemisinins be deployed as artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). Widespread resistance to the non-artemisinin partner drugs in ACTs has the potential to limit the clinical and resistance benefits provided by combination therapy. We aimed to model and evaluate the long-term effects of high levels of partner-drug resistance on the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant genotypes. METHODS: Using a consensus modelling approach, we used three individual-based mathematical models of Plasmodium falciparum transmission to evaluate the effects of pre-existing partner-drug resistance and ACT deployment on the evolution of artemisinin resistance. Each model simulates 100 000 individuals in a particular transmission setting (malaria prevalence of 1%, 5%, 10%, or 20%) with a daily time step that updates individuals' infection status, treatment status, immunity, genotype-specific parasite densities, and clinical state. We modelled varying access to antimalarial drugs if febrile (coverage of 20%, 40%, or 60%) with one primary ACT used as first-line therapy: dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ), artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ), or artemether-lumefantrine (AL). The primary outcome was time until 0·25 580Y allele frequency for artemisinin resistance (the establishment time). FINDINGS: Higher frequencies of pre-existing partner-drug resistant genotypes lead to earlier establishment of artemisinin resistance. Across all models, a 10-fold increase in the frequency of partner-drug resistance genotypes on average corresponded to loss of artemisinin efficacy 2-12 years earlier. Most reductions in time to artemisinin resistance establishment were observed after an increase in frequency of the partner-drug resistance genotype from 0·0 to 0·10. INTERPRETATION: Partner-drug resistance in ACTs facilitates the early emergence of artemisinin resistance and is a major public health concern. Higher-grade partner-drug resistance has the largest effect, with piperaquine resistance accelerating the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant alleles the most. Continued investment in molecular surveillance of partner-drug resistant genotypes to guide choice of first-line ACT is paramount. FUNDING: Schmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Wellcome Trust.

Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The first COVID-19 vaccine outside a clinical trial setting was administered on Dec 8, 2020. To ensure global vaccine equity, vaccine targets were set by the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility and WHO. However, due to vaccine shortfalls, these targets were not achieved by the end of 2021. We aimed to quantify the global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination programmes. METHODS: A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination was separately fit to reported COVID-19 mortality and all-cause excess mortality in 185 countries and territories. The impact of COVID-19 vaccination programmes was determined by estimating the additional lives lost if no vaccines had been distributed. We also estimated the additional deaths that would have been averted had the vaccination coverage targets of 20% set by COVAX and 40% set by WHO been achieved by the end of 2021. FINDINGS: Based on official reported COVID-19 deaths, we estimated that vaccinations prevented 14·4 million (95% credible interval [Crl] 13·7-15·9) deaths from COVID-19 in 185 countries and territories between Dec 8, 2020, and Dec 8, 2021. This estimate rose to 19·8 million (95% Crl 19·1-20·4) deaths from COVID-19 averted when we used excess deaths as an estimate of the true extent of the pandemic, representing a global reduction of 63% in total deaths (19·8 million of 31·4 million) during the first year of COVID-19 vaccination. In COVAX Advance Market Commitment countries, we estimated that 41% of excess mortality (7·4 million [95% Crl 6·8-7·7] of 17·9 million deaths) was averted. In low-income countries, we estimated that an additional 45% (95% CrI 42-49) of deaths could have been averted had the 20% vaccination coverage target set by COVAX been met by each country, and that an additional 111% (105-118) of deaths could have been averted had the 40% target set by WHO been met by each country by the end of 2021. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 vaccination has substantially altered the course of the pandemic, saving tens of millions of lives globally. However, inadequate access to vaccines in low-income countries has limited the impact in these settings, reinforcing the need for global vaccine equity and coverage. FUNDING: Schmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust; WHO; UK Medical Research Council; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; National Institute for Health Research; and Community Jameel.

Impaired fibrinolysis in severe Covid-19 infection is detectable in early stages of the disease.

BACKGROUND: A significant degree of mortality and morbidity in Covid-19 is due to thromboembolic disease. Coagulopathy has been well described in critically unwell patients on ICU. There is less clear evidence regarding these changes at the time of presentation to the Emergency Department and the progression of disease over time. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate whether coagulation markers can predict severity and how they change over the disease course. METHODS: Patients presenting to a single University Teaching Hospital were recruited and followed up if PCR was positive. Alongside routine blood testing, Rotational Thromboelastometry (ROTEM) was performed. Outcome data was recorded for all patients, and ROTEM values were compared across outcome groups. RESULTS: Extem and Intem Maximum Lysis were significantly reduced in those who died or required an ICU admission, indicating a reduced ability to break down clot mass in the most critically unwell patients. CONCLUSION: Comparisons between groups demonstrated that one distinguishing feature between those who require ICU admission or die of Covid-19 compared with those who survive a hospital stay to discharge was the extent to which fibrinolysis could occur. Mortality and morbidity in Covid-19 infection appears in part driven by an inability to break down clot mass.

Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling.

Background: The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is a key statistic for estimating the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been continuously debated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The age-specific IFR can be quantified using antibody surveys to estimate total infections, but requires consideration of delay-distributions from time from infection to seroconversion, time to death, and time to seroreversion (i.e. antibody waning) alongside serologic test sensitivity and specificity. Previous IFR estimates have not fully propagated uncertainty or accounted for these potential biases, particularly seroreversion. Methods: We built a Bayesian statistical model that incorporates these factors and applied this model to simulated data and 10 serologic studies from different countries. Results: We demonstrate that seroreversion becomes a crucial factor as time accrues but is less important during first-wave, short-term dynamics. We additionally show that disaggregating surveys by regions with higher versus lower disease burden can inform serologic test specificity estimates. The overall IFR in each setting was estimated at 0.49-2.53%. Conclusion: We developed a robust statistical framework to account for full uncertainties in the parameters determining IFR. We provide code for others to apply these methods to further datasets and future epidemics.