Effect of Early Sustained Prophylactic Hypothermia on Neurologic Outcomes Among Patients With Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: The POLAR Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: After severe traumatic brain injury, induction of prophylactic hypothermia has been suggested to be neuroprotective and improve long-term neurologic outcomes. Objective: To determine the effectiveness of early prophylactic hypothermia compared with normothermic management of patients after severe traumatic brain injury. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Prophylactic Hypothermia Trial to Lessen Traumatic Brain Injury-Randomized Clinical Trial (POLAR-RCT) was a multicenter randomized trial in 6 countries that recruited 511 patients both out-of-hospital and in emergency departments after severe traumatic brain injury. The first patient was enrolled on December 5, 2010, and the last on November 10, 2017. The final date of follow-up was May 15, 2018. Interventions: There were 266 patients randomized to the prophylactic hypothermia group and 245 to normothermic management. Prophylactic hypothermia targeted the early induction of hypothermia (33°C-35°C) for at least 72 hours and up to 7 days if intracranial pressures were elevated, followed by gradual rewarming. Normothermia targeted 37°C, using surface-cooling wraps when required. Temperature was managed in both groups for 7 days. All other care was at the discretion of the treating physician. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was favorable neurologic outcomes or independent living (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended score, 5-8 [scale range, 1-8]) obtained by blinded assessors 6 months after injury. Results: Among 511 patients who were randomized, 500 provided ongoing consent (mean age, 34.5 years [SD, 13.4]; 402 men [80.2%]) and 466 completed the primary outcome evaluation. Hypothermia was initiated rapidly after injury (median, 1.8 hours [IQR, 1.0-2.7 hours]) and rewarming occurred slowly (median, 22.5 hours [IQR, 16-27 hours]). Favorable outcomes (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended score, 5-8) at 6 months occurred in 117 patients (48.8%) in the hypothermia group and 111 (49.1%) in the normothermia group (risk difference, 0.4% [95% CI, -9.4% to 8.7%]; relative risk with hypothermia, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.82-1.19]; P = .94). In the hypothermia and normothermia groups, the rates of pneumonia were 55.0% vs 51.3%, respectively, and rates of increased intracranial bleeding were 18.1% vs 15.4%, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe traumatic brain injury, early prophylactic hypothermia compared with normothermia did not improve neurologic outcomes at 6 months. These findings do not support the use of early prophylactic hypothermia for patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00987688; Anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12609000764235.

Quality sleep using earplugs in the intensive care unit: the QUIET pilot randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of a definitive, randomised controlled trial of earplugs as a noise-abatement strategy to improve sleep and reduce delirium in patients admitted to the intensive care unit. DESIGN AND SETTING: An open-label trial of 40 patients randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive earplugs in addition to standard care, or standard care alone, conducted in a 10-bed ICU of a large, private hospital in Perth, Western Australia. PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTION: Patients were eligible for participation if they were expected to be undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV) on admission to the ICU. Patients assigned to receive earplugs had earplugs placed on admission to the ICU and were offered earplug placement between 10 pm and 6 am for the first night in the ICU once they were extubated. Earplugs were not provided for patients assigned to standard care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome of study feasibility was assessed using criteria for acceptability of the intervention and protocol compliance. RESULTS: Of the 20 participants randomised to receive earplugs, 19 had earplugs placed within 6 hours of ICU admission, corresponding to 76% of the MV time (mean time with earplugs, 7.5 hours [SD, 5.3 hours]). Earplugs were placed for 18 of 20 participants during their first full night after extubation, corresponding to 78% of the total overnight time (mean time with earplugs, 6.2 hours [SD, 2.5 hours]). CONCLUSION: A definitive study of earplugs as a noiseabatement strategy for patients admitted to the ICU is feasible on the basis of participant acceptability of the intervention and protocol compliance. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12615001125516.

Using Clinically Accessible Tools to Measure Sound Levels and Sleep Disruption in the ICU: A Prospective Multicenter Observational Study.

OBJECTIVES: To use clinically accessible tools to determine unit-level and individual patient factors associated with sound levels and sleep disruption in a range of representative ICUs. DESIGN: A cross-sectional, observational study. SETTING: Australian and New Zealand ICUs. PATIENTS: All patients 16 years or over occupying an ICU bed on one of two Point Prevalence study days in 2015. INTERVENTIONS: Ambient sound was measured for 1 minute using an application downloaded to a personal mobile device. Bedside nurses also recorded the total time and number of awakening for each patient overnight. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The study included 539 participants with sound level recorded using an application downloaded to a personal mobile device from 39 ICUs. Maximum and mean sound levels were 78 dB (SD, 9) and 62 dB (SD, 8), respectively. Maximum sound levels were higher in ICUs with a sleep policy or protocol compared with those without maximum sound levels 81 dB (95% CI, 79-83) versus 77 dB (95% CI, 77-78), mean difference 4 dB (95% CI, 0-2), p < 0.001. There was no significant difference in sound levels regardless of single room occupancy, mechanical ventilation status, or illness severity. Clinical nursing staff in all 39 ICUs were able to record sleep assessment in 15-minute intervals. The median time awake and number of prolonged disruptions were 3 hours (interquartile range, 1-4) and three (interquartile range, 2-5), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Across a large number of ICUs, patients were exposed to high sound levels and substantial sleep disruption irrespective of factors including previous implementation of a sleep policy. Sound and sleep measurement using simple and accessible tools can facilitate future studies and could feasibly be implemented into clinical practice.

Association between augmented renal clearance and clinical outcomes in patients receiving ß-lactam antibiotic therapy by continuous or intermittent infusion: a nested cohort study of the BLING-II randomised, placebo-controlled, clinical trial.

Augmented renal clearance (ARC) is known to influence ß-lactam antibiotic pharmacokinetics. This substudy of the BLING-II trial aimed to explore the association between ARC and patient outcomes in a large randomised clinical trial. BLING-II enrolled 432 participants with severe sepsis randomised to receive ß-lactam therapy by continuous or intermittent infusion. An 8-h creatinine clearance (CLCr) measured on Day 1 was used to identify ARC, defined as CLCr ≥ 130 mL/min. Patients receiving any form of renal replacement therapy were excluded. Primary outcome was alive ICU-free days at Day 28. Secondary outcomes included 90-day mortality and clinical cure at 14 days following antibiotic cessation. A total of 254 patients were included, among which 45 (17.7%) manifested ARC [median (IQR) CLCr 165 (144-198) mL/min]. ARC patients were younger (P <0.001), more commonly male (P = 0.04) and had less organ dysfunction (P <0.001). There was no difference in ICU-free days at Day 28 [ARC, 21 (12-24) days; no ARC, 21 (11-25) days; P = 0.89], although clinical cure was significantly greater in the unadjusted analysis in those manifesting ARC [33/45 (73.3%) vs. 115/209 (55.0%) P = 0.02]. This was attenuated in the multivariable analysis. No difference was noted in 90-day mortality. There were no statistically significant differences in clinical outcomes in ARC patients according to the dosing strategy employed. In this substudy of a large clinical trial of ß-lactam antibiotics in severe sepsis, ARC was not associated with any differences in outcomes, regardless of dosing strategy.

Cost of surviving sepsis: a novel model of recovery from sepsis in Drosophila melanogaster.

BACKGROUND: Multiple organ failure, wasting, increased morbidity, and mortality following acute illness complicates the health span of patients surviving sepsis. Persistent inflammation has been implicated, and it is proposed that insulin signaling contributes to persistent inflammatory signaling during the recovery phase after sepsis. However, mechanisms are unknown and suitable pre-clinical models are lacking. We therefore developed a novel Drosophila melanogaster model of sepsis to recapitulate the clinical course of sepsis, explored inflammation over time, and its relation to impaired mobility, metabolic disturbance, and changes in lifespan. METHODS: We used wild-type (WT), Drosomycin-green fluorescent protein (GFP), and NF-κB-luc reporter male Drosophila melanogaster 4-5 days of age (unmanipulated). We infected Drosophila with Staphylococcus aureus (infected without treatment) or pricked with aseptic needles (sham). Subsets of insects were treated with oral linezolid after the infection (infected with antibiotics). We assessed rapid iterative negative geotaxis (RING) in all the groups as a surrogate for neuromuscular functional outcome up to 96 h following infection. We harvested the flies over the 7-day course to evaluate bacterial burden, inflammatory and metabolic pathway gene expression patterns, NF-κB translation, and metabolic reserve. We also followed the lifespan of the flies. RESULTS: Our results showed that when treated with antibiotics, flies had improved survival compared to infected without treatment flies in the early phase of sepsis up to 1 week (81 %, p = 0.001). However, the lifespan of infected with antibiotics flies was significantly shorter than that of sham controls (p = 0.001). Among infected with antibiotic sepsis survivors, we observed persistent elevation of NF-κB in the absence of any obvious infection as shown by culturing flies surviving sepsis. In the same group, geotaxis had an early (18 h) and sustained decline compared to its baseline. Geotaxis in infected with antibiotics sepsis survivors was significantly lower than that in sham and age-matched unmanipulated flies at 18 and 48 h. Expression of antimicrobial peptides (AMP) remained significantly elevated over the course of 7 days after sepsis, especially drosomycin (5.7-fold, p = 0.0145) on day 7 compared to that of sham flies. Infected with antibiotics flies had a trend towards decreased Akt activation, yet their glucose stores were significantly lower than those of sham flies (p = 0.001). Sepsis survivors had increased lactate levels and LDH activity by 1 week, whereas ATP and pyruvate content was similar to that of the sham group. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, our model mimics human survivors of sepsis with persistent inflammation, impaired motility, dysregulated glucose metabolism, and shortened lifespan.

A Multicenter Randomized Trial of Continuous versus Intermittent ß-Lactam Infusion in Severe Sepsis.

RATIONALE: Continuous infusion of ß-lactam antibiotics may improve outcomes because of time-dependent antibacterial activity compared with intermittent dosing. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of continuous versus intermittent infusion in patients with severe sepsis. METHODS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial in 25 intensive care units (ICUs). Participants commenced on piperacillin-tazobactam, ticarcillin-clavulanate, or meropenem were randomized to receive the prescribed antibiotic via continuous or 30-minute intermittent infusion for the remainder of the treatment course or until ICU discharge. The primary outcome was the number of alive ICU-free days at Day 28. Secondary outcomes were 90-day survival, clinical cure 14 days post antibiotic cessation, alive organ failure-free days at Day 14, and duration of bacteremia. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We enrolled 432 eligible participants with a median age of 64 years and an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of 20. There was no difference in ICU-free days: 18 days (interquartile range, 2-24) and 20 days (interquartile range, 3-24) in the continuous and intermittent groups (P = 0.38). There was no difference in 90-day survival: 74.3% (156 of 210) and 72.5% (158 of 218); hazard ratio, 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.31; P = 0.61). Clinical cure was 52.4% (111 of 212) and 49.5% (109 of 220); odds ratio, 1.12 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.63; P = 0.56). There was no difference in organ failure-free days (6 d; P = 0.27) and duration of bacteremia (0 d; P = 0.24). CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients with severe sepsis, there was no difference in outcomes between ß-lactam antibiotic administration by continuous and intermittent infusion. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number (ACT RN12612000138886).

Increased hospital costs associated with red blood cell transfusion.

BACKGROUND: Red blood cell (RBC) transfusion is independently associated in a dose-dependent manner with increased intensive care unit stay, total hospital length of stay, and hospital-acquired complications. Since little is known of the cost of these transfusion-associated adverse outcomes our aim was to determine the total hospital cost associated with RBC transfusion and to assess any dose-dependent relationship. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all multiday acute care inpatients discharged from a five hospital health service in Western Australia between July 2011 and June 2012 was conducted. Main outcome measures were incidence of RBC transfusion and mean inpatient hospital costs. RESULTS: Of 89,996 multiday, acute care inpatient discharges, 4805 (5.3%) were transfused at least 1 unit of RBCs. After potential confounders were adjusted for, the mean inpatient cost was 1.83 times higher in the transfused group compared with the nontransfused group (95% confidence interval, 1.78-1.89; p < 0.001). The estimated total hospital-associated cost of RBC transfusion in this study was AUD $77 million (US $72 million), representing 7.8% of total hospital expenditure on acute care inpatients. There was a significant dose-dependent association between the number of RBC units transfused and increased costs after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSION: RBC transfusions were independently associated with significantly higher hospital costs. The financial implication to hospital budgets will assist in prioritizing areas to reduce the rate of RBC transfusions and in implementing patient blood management programs.

Goal-directed resuscitation for patients with early septic shock.

BACKGROUND: Early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) has been endorsed in the guidelines of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign as a key strategy to decrease mortality among patients presenting to the emergency department with septic shock. However, its effectiveness is uncertain. METHODS: In this trial conducted at 51 centers (mostly in Australia or New Zealand), we randomly assigned patients presenting to the emergency department with early septic shock to receive either EGDT or usual care. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 90 days after randomization. RESULTS: Of the 1600 enrolled patients, 796 were assigned to the EGDT group and 804 to the usual-care group. Primary outcome data were available for more than 99% of the patients. Patients in the EGDT group received a larger mean (±SD) volume of intravenous fluids in the first 6 hours after randomization than did those in the usual-care group (1964±1415 ml vs. 1713±1401 ml) and were more likely to receive vasopressor infusions (66.6% vs. 57.8%), red-cell transfusions (13.6% vs. 7.0%), and dobutamine (15.4% vs. 2.6%) (P<0.001 for all comparisons). At 90 days after randomization, 147 deaths had occurred in the EGDT group and 150 had occurred in the usual-care group, for rates of death of 18.6% and 18.8%, respectively (absolute risk difference with EGDT vs. usual care, -0.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, -4.1 to 3.6; P=0.90). There was no significant difference in survival time, in-hospital mortality, duration of organ support, or length of hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients presenting to the emergency department with early septic shock, EGDT did not reduce all-cause mortality at 90 days. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Alfred Foundation; ARISE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00975793.).

A multicentre feasibility study evaluating stress ulcer prophylaxis using hospital-based registry data.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether histamine-2 receptor blockers (H2RBs) or proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are preferred for stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) in intensive care unit patients. Suitably powered comparative effectiveness trials are warranted. OBJECTIVE: To establish the feasibility of collecting process-of-care and outcome data relevant to a proposed interventional trial of SUP using existing databases. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study conducted in seven Australia and New Zealand tertiary ICUs, including all patients ≥18 years admitted between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Doses of dispensed PPIs and H2RBs, upper gastrointestinal bleeding events, upper respiratory tract colonisation with pathogenic bacteria, Clostridium difficile infections and inhospital mortality. RESULTS: All sites were able to contribute to the study and investigators reported that data were generally easy to obtain. A median dose/ICU of 477 g of PPIs (interquartile range [IQR], 430.5-865 g), and 408.5 g (IQR, 109-1630.2 g) of H2RBs, were dispensed over the 2 years of the study. The median proportion of patients/ICU with upper GI bleeding complicating admission was 1.4% (IQR, 0.3%-1.8%). Colonisation of the respiratory tract with gram-negative bacteria occurred in a median of 7.1% of patients/ICU (IQR, 6.3%-14.1%). Pseudomembranous colitis occurred in hospital in a median of 1.4% of patients (IQR, 0.9%-2%) and inhospital mortality was 10.6% (95% CI, 9.5%- 11.7%). CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to use existing data sources to measure process-of-care and outcome data necessary for a registry-based interventional trial of SUP.

A protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial of continuous beta-lactam infusion compared with intermittent beta-lactam dosing in critically ill patients with severe sepsis: the BLING II study.

BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE: Beta-lactam antibiotics are largely administered by bolus dosing, despite displaying time-dependent pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics and there being a strong rationale for continuous administration. The randomised controlled trials conducted to date comparing the mode of betalactam administration have been inconclusive and limited by non-equivalent dosing, unblinded administration and small sample sizes. OBJECTIVE: A multicentre, randomised controlled trial (the Beta-lactam Infusion Group [BLING] II study) is currently under way, comparing continuous infusion to standard bolus administration of beta-lactam antibiotics in critically ill patients, independent of dose. DESIGN, SETTINGS, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS: BLING II is a Phase IIB, double-blinded, randomised controlled trial recruiting 420 intensive care unit patients with severe sepsis to receive one of three beta-lactam study antibiotics (ticarcillin-clavulanate, piperacillin- tazobactam or meropenem) by either continuous infusion or intermittent bolus administration. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is ICUfree days at Day 28. Secondary outcomes include 90-day survival, clinical cure 14 days after study antibiotic cessation, organ failure-free days at Day 14 and duration of bacteraemia. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The study started in July 2012 and will provide clinical evidence as to whether continuous infusion of beta-lactam antibiotics is superior to intermittent bolus administration in critically ill patients with severe sepsis. A Phase III study powered for a survival end point may be justified, based on the results of our study.

Patient comfort in the intensive care unit: a multicentre, binational point prevalence study of analgesia, sedation and delirium management.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the prevalence of assessment and management practices for analgesia, sedation and delirium in patients in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed survey items from a modified Delphi panel and included them in a binational, point prevalence study. We used a standard case report form to capture retrospective patient data on management of analgesia, sedation and delirium at the end of a 4-hour period on the study day. Other data were collected during independent assessment of patient status and medication requirements. RESULTS: Data were collected on 569 patients in 41 ICUs. Pain assessment was documented in the 4 hours before study observation in 46% of patients. Of 319 assessable patients, 16% had moderate pain and 6% had severe pain. Routine sedation assessment using a scale was recorded in 63% of intubated and ventilated patients. When assessed, 38% were alert and calm, or drowsy and rousable, 22% were lightly to moderately sedated, 31% were deeply sedated (66% of these had a documented indication), and 9% were agitated or restless. Sedatives were titrated to a target level in 42% of patients. Routine assessment of delirium occurred in 3%, and at study assessment 9% had delirium. Wrist or arm restraints were used for 7% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Only two-thirds of sedated patients had their sedation levels formally assessed, half had pain assessed and very few had formal assessment of delirium. Our description of current practices, and other observational data, may help in planning further research in this area.

Continuous infusion of beta-lactam antibiotics in severe sepsis: a multicenter double-blind, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Beta-lactam antibiotics are a commonly used treatment for severe sepsis, with intermittent bolus dosing standard therapy, despite a strong theoretical rationale for continuous administration. The aim of this trial was to determine the clinical and pharmacokinetic differences between continuous and intermittent dosing in patients with severe sepsis. METHODS: This was a prospective, double-blind, randomized controlled trial of continuous infusion versus intermittent bolus dosing of piperacillin-tazobactam, meropenem, and ticarcillin-clavulanate conducted in 5 intensive care units across Australia and Hong Kong. The primary pharmacokinetic outcome on treatment analysis was plasma antibiotic concentration above the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) on days 3 and 4. The assessed clinical outcomes were clinical response 7-14 days after study drug cessation, ICU-free days at day 28 and hospital survival. RESULTS: Sixty patients were enrolled with 30 patients each allocated to the intervention and control groups. Plasma antibiotic concentrations exceeded the MIC in 82% of patients (18 of 22) in the continuous arm versus 29% (6 of 21) in the intermittent arm (P = .001). Clinical cure was higher in the continuous group (70% vs 43%; P = .037), but ICU-free days (19.5 vs 17 days; P = .14) did not significantly differ between groups. Survival to hospital discharge was 90% in the continuous group versus 80% in the intermittent group (P = .47). CONCLUSIONS: Continuous administration of beta-lactam antibiotics achieved higher plasma antibiotic concentrations than intermittent administration with improvement in clinical cure. This study provides a strong rationale for further multicenter trials with sufficient power to identify differences in patient-centered endpoints.

Hydroxyethyl starch or saline for fluid resuscitation in intensive care.

BACKGROUND: The safety and efficacy of hydroxyethyl starch (HES) for fluid resuscitation have not been fully evaluated, and adverse effects of HES on survival and renal function have been reported. METHODS: We randomly assigned 7000 patients who had been admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in a 1:1 ratio to receive either 6% HES with a molecular weight of 130 kD and a molar substitution ratio of 0.4 (130/0.4, Voluven) in 0.9% sodium chloride or 0.9% sodium chloride (saline) for all fluid resuscitation until ICU discharge, death, or 90 days after randomization. The primary outcome was death within 90 days. Secondary outcomes included acute kidney injury and failure and treatment with renal-replacement therapy. RESULTS: A total of 597 of 3315 patients (18.0%) in the HES group and 566 of 3336 (17.0%) in the saline group died (relative risk in the HES group, 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.96 to 1.18; P=0.26). There was no significant difference in mortality in six predefined subgroups. Renal-replacement therapy was used in 235 of 3352 patients (7.0%) in the HES group and 196 of 3375 (5.8%) in the saline group (relative risk, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.45; P=0.04). In the HES and saline groups, renal injury occurred in 34.6% and 38.0% of patients, respectively (P=0.005), and renal failure occurred in 10.4% and 9.2% of patients, respectively (P=0.12). HES was associated with significantly more adverse events (5.3% vs. 2.8%, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients in the ICU, there was no significant difference in 90-day mortality between patients resuscitated with 6% HES (130/0.4) or saline. However, more patients who received resuscitation with HES were treated with renal-replacement therapy. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and others; CHEST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00935168.).

Accuracy of International classification of diseases, 10th revision codes for identifying severe sepsis in patients admitted from the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of International classification of diseases, 10th revision, Australian modification (ICD-10-AM) codes in identifying severe sepsis in patients admitted from the emergency department (ED). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study of ED patients transferred to the intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital within 24 hours of leaving ED, 2000- 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical diagnosis of severe sepsis compared with diagnosis-based code (DB-C) categories based on ICD-10-AM codes in the Emergency Department Information Systems (EDIS) and Hospital Morbidity Data System (HMDS); sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value of these databases. RESULTS: In the study period, 1645 patients were transferred to the ICU from the ED, of whom 254 had severe sepsis. Single discharge ICD-10-AM codes recorded in the EDIS and the principal ICD-10-AM codes recorded in the HMDS that fell into D-BC categories for sepsis, pneumonia, viscous perforation, peritonitis, cholecystitis or cholangitis had a PPV of 85.0% (95% CI, 78.4%-91.6%; 96/113) and 88.2% (95%CI, 72.6%-82.6%; 112/127), respectively. The respective sensitivity was 37.8% (95% CI, 31.8%-43.8%) (96/254) and 44.1% (95% CI, 38.0-50.2) (112/254). In contrast, ICD-10-AM codes in the HMDS that code for infection and organ dysfunction had a PPV of 33.5% (95% CI, 30.0%-37.0%; 227/677) and sensitivity of 89.4% (95% CI, 85.6%-93.2%; 227/254). CONCLUSION: ICD-10-AM codes recorded in the EDIS or HMD had limited utility for identifying severe sepsis in patients admitted to ICU from the ED.

Comparison of physician prediction with 2 prognostic scoring systems in predicting 2-year mortality after intensive care admission: a linked-data cohort study.

PURPOSE: Patients who survive an episode of critical illness continue to experience significant mortality after hospital discharge. This study assessed the accuracy of physician prediction of 2-year mortality and compared it with 2 objective prognostic models. METHODS: Sensitivity (probability of a prediction of death in patients who died within 2 years) and specificity (probability of a prediction of survival in patients who survived at least 2 years) of physicians' 2-year prediction were compared with those from 2 objective prognostic models, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Predicted Risk Existing Disease Intensive Care Therapy (PREDICT). RESULTS: Physician prediction of 2-year mortality was available for 2497 (94.8%) intensive care unit admissions. Specificity was high (85.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 83.7-86.4), but sensitivity (65.0%; 95% CI, 61.1-68.8) and positive predictive value (57.4%; 95% CI, 53.6-61.2) were relatively low, suggesting overpessimistic prediction of 2-year mortality. Age, Charlson comorbidity index, and APACHE score were independent risk factors for an inaccurate physician prediction. The diagnostic odds ratio for the physician predictions was at least comparable with the APACHE and PREDICT models, which both had very good discrimination of mortality at 2-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians tended to overpredict the risk of 2-year mortality of critically ill patients, but accuracy was comparable with 2 objective prognostic models.

Critical care services and the H1N1 (2009) influenza epidemic in Australia and New Zealand in 2010: the impact of the second winter epidemic.

INTRODUCTION: During the first winter of exposure, the H1N1 2009 influenza virus placed considerable strain on intensive care unit (ICU) services in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ). We assessed the impact of the H1N1 2009 influenza virus on ICU services during the second (2010) winter, following the implementation of vaccination. METHODS: A prospective, cohort study was conducted in all ANZ ICUs during the southern hemisphere winter of 2010. Data on demographic and clinical characteristics, including vaccination status and outcomes, were collected. The characteristics of patients admitted during the 2010 and 2009 seasons were compared. RESULTS: From 1 June to 15 October 2010, there were 315 patients with confirmed influenza A, of whom 283 patients (90%) had H1N1 2009 (10.6 cases per million inhabitants; 95% confidence interval (CI), 9.4 to 11.9) which was an observed incidence of 33% of that in 2009 (P < 0.001). The maximum daily ICU occupancy was 2.4 beds (95% CI, 1.8 to 3) per million inhabitants in 2010 compared with 7.5 (95% CI, 6.5 to 8.6) in 2009, (P < 0.001). The onset of the epidemic in 2010 was delayed by five weeks compared with 2009. The clinical characteristics were similar in 2010 and 2009 with no difference in the age distribution, proportion of patients treated with mechanical ventilation, duration of ICU admission, or hospital mortality. Unlike 2009 the incidence of critical illness was significantly greater in New Zealand (18.8 cases per million inhabitants compared with 9 in Australia, P < 0.001). Of 170 patients with known vaccination status, 26 (15.3%) had been vaccinated against H1N1 2009. CONCLUSIONS: During the 2010 ANZ winter, the impact of H1N1 2009 on ICU services was still appreciable in Australia and substantial in New Zealand. Vaccination failure occurred.

Acute kidney injury in patients with influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to evaluate the incidence and outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) among critically ill adult patients with H1N1 2009 infection. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: From a prospectively collected influenza A (H1N1) 2009 bi-national, we identified 671 adult patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) from June 1 to August 31, 2009. Of these, 628 (93.6%) had admission and/or peak serum creatinine values during ICU stay. We defined AKI according to the creatinine criteria of the RIFLE classification. RESULTS: Of 628 adult patients, 211 [33.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 29.8-37.4%] had AKI: 41 (6.5%) risk, 56 (8.9%) injury and 114 (18.2%) failure. Of all 211 AKI patients, 76 [36.0% (29.4-42.6%)] died in hospital (36.6% in risk, 25.0% in injury and 41.3% in failure group) compared with 33 of 408 (8.1%) patients without AKI. Among the 33 AKI patients treated with renal replacement therapy, 13 died (39.4%). Mechanical ventilation [odds ratio (OR) 3.62 (2.07-6.34)], any severe co-morbidity (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.15-3.71), age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03 per 1 year increase), and AKI (OR 6.69, 95% CI 4.25-10.55) were independently associated with hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Acute kidney injury appears common in H1N1 2009 infected patients and is independently associated with an increased risk of hospital mortality.