Transplantation of chemically induced pluripotent stem-cell-derived islets under abdominal anterior rectus sheath in a type 1 diabetes patient.

We report the 1-year results from one patient as the preliminary analysis of a first-in-human phase I clinical trial (ChiCTR2300072200) assessing the feasibility of autologous transplantation of chemically induced pluripotent stem-cell-derived islets (CiPSC islets) beneath the abdominal anterior rectus sheath for type 1 diabetes treatment. The patient achieved sustained insulin independence starting 75 days post-transplantation. The patient's time-in-target glycemic range increased from a baseline value of 43.18% to 96.21% by month 4 post-transplantation, accompanied by a decrease in glycated hemoglobin, an indicator of long-term systemic glucose levels at a non-diabetic level. Thereafter, the patient presented a state of stable glycemic control, with time-in-target glycemic range at >98% and glycated hemoglobin at around 5%. At 1 year, the clinical data met all study endpoints with no indication of transplant-related abnormalities. Promising results from this patient suggest that further clinical studies assessing CiPSC-islet transplantation in type 1 diabetes are warranted.

Achieving Near-Infrared Highly Sensitive Temperature Sensing in Lanthanide-Doped Lead-Free Double Perovskite NaLaMgWO6 with Significant Thermal Enhancement.

The significant temperature response of lanthanide-doped up-conversion luminescent materials is typically characterized by a severe thermal quenching of the luminescence intensity at elevated ambient temperatures, which severely restricts materials' capability in temperature sensing. Herein, the influence of matrix phonon properties on the remarkable thermal enhancement effect in the thermosensitive material NaLaMgWO6:Yb3+/Nd3+ is reported. It is elucidated that achieving a significant thermal enhancement of Nd3+ with a higher phonon energy oxide matrix is easier than a halide matrix, which has lower phonon energy by comparison with previous findings. Interestingly, the emission of thermally related levels gets enhanced to various extents through phonon-assisted thermal population. In light of this, a three-model thermometer is constructed based on luminescence intensity ratio (LIR) technology. Given that Sr and ΔE possess a positive correlation, it is feasible to acquire greater temperature monitoring sensitivity Sr in Nd3+, which has a larger ΔE. At 313 K, this thermometry model may achieve a maximum sensitivity of 2.84%·K-1. This work not only provides guidance for the selection of efficient near-infrared up-conversion material but also opens up a prospect for the realization of ultrasensitive thermally coupled luminescent thermometers.

Correction: Association of daytime napping with incidence of chronic kidney disease and end-stage kidney disease: A prospective observational study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298375.].

RNA Surveillance Factor SMG5 Is Essential for Mouse Embryonic Stem Cell Differentiation.

Nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD) is a highly conserved post-transcriptional gene expression regulatory mechanism in eukaryotic cells. NMD eliminates aberrant mRNAs with premature termination codons to surveil transcriptome integrity. Furthermore, NMD fine-tunes gene expression by destabilizing RNAs with specific NMD features. Thus, by controlling the quality and quantity of the transcriptome, NMD plays a vital role in mammalian development, stress response, and tumorigenesis. Deficiencies of NMD factors result in early embryonic lethality, while the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. SMG5 is a key NMD factor. In this study, we generated an Smg5 conditional knockout mouse model and found that Smg5-null results in early embryonic lethality before E13.5. Furthermore, we produced multiple lines of Smg5 knockout mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs) and found that the deletion of Smg5 in mESCs does not compromise cell viability. Smg5-null delays differentiation of mESCs. Mechanistically, our study reveals that the c-MYC protein, but not c-Myc mRNA, is upregulated in SMG5-deficient mESCs. The overproduction of c-MYC protein could be caused by enhanced protein synthesis upon SMG5 loss. Furthermore, SMG5-null results in dysregulation of alternative splicing on multiple stem cell differentiation regulators. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of SMG5-NMD in regulating mESC cell-state transition.

Long-term effects of fecal microbiota transplantation on gut microbiota after Helicobacter pylori eradication with bismuth quadruple therapy: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Eradicating Helicobacter pylori infection by bismuth quadruple therapy (BQT) is effective. However, the effect of BQT and subsequent fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) on the gut microbiota is less known. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective randomized controlled trial was conducted at a tertiary hospital in China from January 2019 to October 2020, with the primary endpoints the effect of BQT on the gut microbiota and the effect of FMT on the gut microbiota after bismuth quadruple therapy eradication therapy. A 14-day BQT with amoxicillin and clarithromycin was administered to H. pylori-positive subjects, and after eradication therapy, patients received a one-time FMT or placebo treatment. We then collected stool samples to assess the effects of 14-day BQT and FMT on the gut microbiota. 16 s rDNA and metagenomic sequencing were used to analyze the structure and function of intestinal flora. We also used Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale (GSRS) to evaluate gastrointestinal symptom during treatment. RESULTS: A total of 30 patients were recruited and 15 were assigned to either FMT or placebo groups. After eradication therapy, alpha-diversity was decreased in both groups. At the phylum level, the abundance of Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes decreased, while Proteobacteria increased. At the genus level, the abundance of beneficial bacteria decreased, while pathogenic bacteria increased. Eradication therapy reduced some resistance genes abundance while increased the resistance genes abundance linked to Escherichia coli. While they all returned to baseline by Week 10. Besides, the difference was observed in Week 10 by the diarrhea score between two groups. Compared to Week 2, the GSRS total score and diarrhea score decreased in Week 3 only in FMT group. CONCLUSIONS: The balance of intestinal flora in patients can be considerably impacted by BQT in the short term, but it has reverted back to baseline by Week 10. FMT can alleviate gastrointestinal symptoms even if there was no evidence it promoted restoration of intestinal flora.

Toward Ultra-High Sensitivity Optical Thermometers and Bright Yellow LEDs Based on Phonon-Assisted Energy Transfer in Rare Earth-Doped La2ZnTiO6 Double Perovskite.

Double perovskites, a class of ceramic oxides with unique crystal structures and diverse physical properties, show promise for various technological applications including solar cells, photodetectors, and light-emitting diodes (LEDs). Despite limited research on rare earth-doped double perovskites, leveraging their ultrahigh luminous efficiency to achieve bright yellow LED emission and addressing energy transfer challenges between Yb3+ and Nd3+ ions in double perovskite La2ZnTiO6 with moderate phonon energy are explored in this work. Through phonon-assisted energy transfer, an ultrasensitive optical thermometer covering a wide temperature range is developed by utilizing the different temperature responses of Er3+ emission in the visible light region and Nd3+ emission in the near-infrared region based on the luminescence intensity ratio (LIR). All the results demonstrate that the rare earth (Yb-Er, Yb-Nd, and Yb-Nd-Er)-doped La2ZnTiO6 phosphors can be effectively utilized for ultrabright LED illumination and ultrahigh sensitivity self-calibrated temperature sensing. This research underscores the significance of phonon-assisted energy transfer in improving material properties and provides valuable insights for the advancement of multifunctional materials.

Endoscopic Combined Drainage of One Giant and Multiple Small Pancreatic Pseudocysts: A Case Report.

A pancreatic pseudocyst (PPC) is a frequent complication of pancreatitis, often stemming from alcohol, gallstones, or hyperlipidemia. Endoscopic treatment of PPC has become the mainstream treatment. A case of one giant and multiple small PPCs was observed, manifesting as repeated abdominal bloating, abdominal pain, nausea, and vomiting after meals. Initial computed tomography scans revealed the presence of multiple PPCs. Despite ineffective medical treatment, the pseudocysts progressively increased. In response, we conducted a combined endoscopic intervention, involving Hot AXIOS (Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA) stenting through endoscopic ultrasound-guided transmural drainage (EUS-TMD) and the placement of the endoscopic nasopancreatic drainage (ENPD) mimic stent through endoscopic retrograde pancreatography (ERP). Remarkably, after nine months of postoperative follow-up, the patient had no discomfort symptoms and the cyst disappeared. We conducted a literature review on endoscopic combined drainage for PPCs, which is still controversial. Our presented case serves as a demonstration that endoscopic combined drainage can effectively and successfully manage giant and multiple PPCs.

Association of daytime napping with incidence of chronic kidney disease and end-stage kidney disease: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Few studies have examined the relationship between daytime napping and risk of kidney diseases. We aimed to investigate the association of daytime napping with the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). We also examined whether sleep duration modified the association of nap with CKD or ESKD. METHODS: We recruited 460,571 European middle- to older-aged adults without prior CKD or ESKD between March 13, 2006, and October 1, 2010, in the UK Biobank. Sleep behavior data were obtained through questionnaires administered during recruitment. The analysis of the relationship between napping and the occurrence of CKD and ESKD utilized Cox proportional hazards regression models. The modification role of sleep duration on the effect of nap on CKD and ESKD was also examined. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 11.1 (standard deviation 2.2) years, we observed 28,330 incident CKD cases and 927 ESKD cases. The daytime napping was associated with incident CKD (P for trend = .004). After fully adjusted, when compared with participants who did not take nap, those in sometimes and usually nap groups had higher risk of CKD. Nevertheless, the available evidence did not support a link between daytime napping and ESKD (P for trend = .06). Simultaneously, there was insufficient evidence suggesting that sleeping duration modified the association of daytime napping with incident CKD or ESKD. CONCLUSION: Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of CKD. However, the absence of conclusive evidence did not indicate a connection between daytime napping and ESKD.

Sensitive, Low-Background-Signal miRNA Analysis via the Self-Priming-Initiated Color Reaction Loaded on a Rolling Circle Amplification Product.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been regarded as potential biomarkers in evaluating various diseases, such as pregnancy-induced hypertension and cancers. However, sensitive and reliable miRNA detection is still a challenge due to the low amplification efficiency and high background signal. Herein, we developed a colorimetric method for miRNA detection utilizing the self-priming-initiated color reaction loaded on a rolling circle amplification (RCA) product. In this method, a biotin-labeled RCA product is fixed on the surface of the streptavidin-coated wells, and the interfering components in samples are removed to avoid false reactions, thus reducing the background signals. Two signal amplification processes, including RCA and self-priming-initiated chain extension, endow the method with high sensitivity and a low limit of detection at the 10 fM level. In conclusion, our approach offers a promising perspective on sensitive and reliable miRNA detection and has the potential to be further utilized in biomedical research and early cancer detection.

Blast Exposure Alters Synaptic Connectivity in the Mouse Auditory Cortex.

Blast exposure can cause auditory deficits that have a lasting, significant impact on patients. Although the effects of blast on auditory functions localized to the ear have been well documented, the impact of blast on central auditory processing is largely undefined. Understanding the structural and functional alterations in the central nervous system (CNS) associated with blast injuries is crucial for unraveling blast-induced pathophysiological pathways and advancing development of therapeutic interventions. In this study, we used electrophysiology in combination with optogenetics assay, proteomic analysis, and morphological evaluation to investigate the impairment of synaptic connectivity in the auditory cortex (AC) of mice following blast exposure. Our results show that the long-range functional connectivity between the medial geniculate nucleus (MGN) and AC was impaired in the acute phase of blast injury. We also identified impaired synaptic transmission and dendritic spine alterations within 7 days of blast exposure, which recovered at 28 days post-blast. Additionally, proteomic analysis identified a few differentially expressed proteins in the cortex that are involved in synaptic signaling and plasticity. These findings collectively suggest that blast-induced alterations in the sound signaling network in the auditory cortex may underlie hearing deficits in the acute and sub-acute phases after exposure to shockwaves. This study may shed light on the perturbations underlying blast-induced auditory dysfunction and provide insights into the potential therapeutic windows for improving auditory outcomes in blast-exposed individuals.

Ice cream with sucralose, stevioside, and erythritol as sugar substitutes: Sensory profile and customer preference.

Sugar-free food has been gaining popularity because of low-calorie content. But sugar replacement by high-intensity sweeteners can negatively affect sensory. In this study, the effect of the addition of sucralose (Suc), stevioside (Ste), and erythritol (Ery) as sugar substitutes on the sensory profile and overall acceptance of ice cream were evaluated by penalty analysis (PA) based on the check-all-that apply (CATA) method, with those of the partial least squares (PLS) regression. Twelve sweetening agents of ice cream samples were presented to 106 consumers who answered on an overall liking question using the 15-point hedonic scale and a CATA question with 32 attributes that described the sensory characteristics of ice cream. The results showed that mixed sweeteners (60%Suc+20%Ste+20%Ery or 60%Suc+10%Ste+30%Ery) can present an advantageous performance when used separately, and making ice cream similar to that of sucrose (Sac) added. Adding Suc, Ste, and Ery to ice cream hardly felt bitterness, astringency, and chemical-like sensations of the sweetening agent. The significant difference between different sweeteners is the intensity and speed of sweetness. Developing combination of high-potency sweeteners that can make sweetness appear quickly could open up new ways to design sugar-free ice cream.

Efficacy of fecal microbiota transplantation in patients with Parkinson's disease: clinical trial results from a randomized, placebo-controlled design.

The occurrence and development of Parkinson's disease (PD) have been demonstrated to be related to gut dysbiosis, however, the impact of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) on microbiota engraftment in PD patients is uncertain. We performed a randomized, placebo-controlled trial at the Department of Neurology, Army Medical University Southwest Hospital in China (ChiCTR1900021405) from February 2019 to December 2019. Fifty-six participants with mild to moderate PD (Hoehn-Yahr stage 1-3) were randomly assigned to the FMT and placebo group, 27 patients in the FMT group and 27 in the placebo group completed the whole trial. During the follow-up, no severe adverse effect was observed, and patients with FMT treatment showed significant improvement in PD-related autonomic symptoms compared with the placebo group at the end of this trial (MDS-UPDRS total score, group×time effect, B = -6.56 [-12.98, -0.13], P < 0.05). Additionally, FMT improved gastrointestinal disorders and a marked increase in the complexity of the microecological system in patients. This study demonstrated that FMT through oral administration is clinically feasible and has the potential to improve the effectiveness of current medications in the clinical symptoms of PD patients.

Cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of stroke in the general population: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Previous results on the association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and stroke are mixed. Most studies derived the eGFR from serum creatinine, which is affected by non-kidney determinants and thus has possibly biased the association with stroke risk. Methods: In this cohort study, we included 429 566 UK Biobank participants (94.5% white, 54% women, age 56 ± 8 years) free of stroke at enrollment. The eGFRcys and eGFRcr were calculated with serum cystatin C and creatinine, respectively. Outcomes of interest were risk of total stroke and subtypes. We investigated the linear and nonlinear associations using Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic splines, corrected for regression dilution bias. Results: During an average follow-up of 10.11 years, 4427 incident strokes occurred, among which 3447 were ischemic and 1163 were hemorrhagic. After adjustment for confounders, the regression dilution-corrected hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for every 10 mL/min/1.73 m2 decrement in eGFRcys were 1.10 (1.05-1.14) for total stroke and 1.11 (1.08-1.15) for ischemic stroke. A similar pattern was observed with eGFRcr, although the association was weaker. When either type of eGFR was below 75 mL/min/1.73 m2, the risks of total and ischemic stroke increased exponentially as eGFR decreased. A U-shaped relationship was witnessed if eGFRcr was used instead. There was a null association between eGFR and hemorrhagic stroke. Conclusions: The risks of total stroke and ischemic stroke increased exponentially when the eGFRcys fell below 75 mL/min/1.73 m2.

mTORC2 acts as a gatekeeper for mTORC1 deficiency-mediated impairments in ILC3 development.

Group 3 innate lymphoid cells (ILC3s) are mediators of intestinal immunity and barrier function. Recent studies have investigated the role of the mammalian target of rapamycin complex (mTOR) in ILC3s, whereas the mTORC1-related mechanisms and crosstalk between mTORC1 and mTORC2 involved in regulating ILC3 homeostasis remain unknown. In this study, we found that mTORC1 but not mTORC2 was critical in ILC3 development, IL-22 production, and ILC3-mediated intestinal homeostasis. Single-cell RNA sequencing revealed that mTORC1 deficiency led to disruption of ILC3 heterogeneity, showing an increase in differentiation into ILC1-like phenotypes. Mechanistically, mTORC1 deficiency decreased the expression of NFIL3, which is a critical transcription factor responsible for ILC3 development. The activities of both mTORC1 and mTORC2 were increased in wild-type ILC3s after activation by IL-23, whereas inhibition of mTORC1 by Raptor deletion or rapamycin treatment resulted in increased mTORC2 activity. Previous studies have demonstrated that S6K, the main downstream target of mTORC1, can directly phosphorylate Rictor to dampen mTORC2 activity. Our data found that inhibition of mTORC1 activity by rapamycin reduced Rictor phosphorylation in ILC3s. Reversing the increased mTORC2 activity via heterozygous or homozygous knockout of Rictor in Raptor-deleted ILC3s resulted in severe ILC3 loss and complete susceptibility to intestinal infection in mice with mTORC1 deficiency (100% mortality). Thus, mTORC1 acts as a rheostat of ILC3 heterogeneity, and mTORC2 protects ILC3s from severe loss of cells and immune activity against intestinal infection when mTORC1 activity is diminished.

The role of complex interactions between the intestinal flora and host in regulating intestinal homeostasis and inflammatory bowel disease.

Pharmacological treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is inefficient and difficult to discontinue appropriately, and enterobacterial interactions are expected to provide a new target for the treatment of IBD. We collected recent studies on the enterobacterial interactions among the host, enterobacteria, and their metabolite products and discuss potential therapeutic options. Intestinal flora interactions in IBD are affected in the reduced bacterial diversity, impact the immune system and are influenced by multiple factors such as host genetics and diet. Enterobacterial metabolites such as SCFAs, bile acids, and tryptophan also play important roles in enterobacterial interactions, especially in the progression of IBD. Therapeutically, a wide range of sources of probiotics and prebiotics exhibit potential therapeutic benefit in IBD through enterobacterial interactions, and some have gained wide recognition as adjuvant drugs. Different dietary patterns and foods, especially functional foods, are novel therapeutic modalities that distinguish pro-and prebiotics from traditional medications. Combined studies with food science may significantly improve the therapeutic experience of patients with IBD. In this review, we provide a brief overview of the role of enterobacteria and their metabolites in enterobacterial interactions, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the potential therapeutic options derived from such metabolites, and postulate directions for further research.

Development and validation of a deep learning-based approach to predict the Mayo endoscopic score of ulcerative colitis.

Background: The ulcerative colitis (UC) Mayo endoscopy score is a useful tool for evaluating the severity of UC in patients in clinical practice. Objectives: We aimed to develop and validate a deep learning-based approach to automatically predict the Mayo endoscopic score using UC endoscopic images. Design: A multicenter, diagnostic retrospective study. Methods: We collected 15120 colonoscopy images of 768 UC patients from two hospitals in China and developed a deep model based on a vision transformer named the UC-former. The performance of the UC-former was compared with that of six endoscopists on the internal test set. Furthermore, multicenter validation from three hospitals was also carried out to evaluate UC-former's generalization performance. Results: On the internal test set, the areas under the curve of Mayo 0, Mayo 1, Mayo 2, and Mayo 3 achieved by the UC-former were 0.998, 0.984, 0.973, and 0.990, respectively. The accuracy (ACC) achieved by the UC-former was 90.8%, which is higher than that achieved by the best senior endoscopist. For three multicenter external validations, the ACC was 82.4%, 85.0%, and 83.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The developed UC-former could achieve high ACC, fidelity, and stability to evaluate the severity of UC, which may provide potential application in clinical practice. Registration: This clinical trial was registered at the ClinicalTrials.gov (trial registration number: NCT05336773).

Why was this study done? The development of an auxiliary diagnostic tool can reduce the workload of endoscopists and achieve rapid assessment of ulcerative colitis (UC) severity. What did the researchers do? We developed and validated a deep learning-based approach to automatically predict the Mayo endoscopic score using UC endoscopic images. What did the researchers find? The model that was developed in this study achieved high accuracy, fidelity, and stability, and demonstrated potential application in clinical practice. What do the findings mean? Deep learning could effectively assist endoscopists in evaluating the severity of UC in patients using endoscopic images.

Optimization of deliquescence-proof perovskite-like Cs3ErF6 phosphor and dual-mode luminescent intensity ratio thermometry.

The susceptibility of Cs-based fluorides to deliquescence has led to the fact that lanthanide-doped Cs-based fluorides and their related applications have hardly been reported. Herein, the method to solve the deliquescence of Cs3ErF6 and its excellent temperature measurement performance were discussed in this work. Initially, the soaking experiment of Cs3ErF6 found that water had irreversible damage to the crystallinity of Cs3ErF6. Subsequently, the luminescent intensity was ensured by the successful isolation of Cs3ErF6 from the deliquescence of vapor by the silicon rubber sheet encapsulation at room temperature. In addition, we also removed moisture by heating samples to obtain temperature-dependent spectra. According to spectral results, two luminescent intensity ratio (LIR) temperature sensing modes were designed. The LIR mode which can quickly respond to temperature parameters by monitoring single band Stark level emission named as "rapid mode". The maximum sensitivity of 7.362%K-1 can be obtained in another "ultra-sensitive mode" thermometer based on the non-thermal coupling energy levels. This work will focus on the deliquescence effect of Cs3ErF6 and the feasibility of silicone rubber encapsulation. At the same time, a dual-mode LIR thermometer is designed for different situations.

Implantation underneath the abdominal anterior rectus sheath enables effective and functional engraftment of stem-cell-derived islets.

Human pluripotent stem cell-derived islets (hPSC islets) are a promising alternative to primary human islets for the treatment of insulin-deficient diabetes. We previously demonstrated the feasibility of this approach in nonhuman primates; however, the therapeutic effects of hPSC islets can be limited by the maladaptive processes at the transplantation site. Here, we demonstrate successful implantation of hPSC-derived islets in a new transplantation site in the abdomen, the subanterior rectus sheath, in eight nonhuman primates (five male and three female). In this proof-of-principle study, we find that hPSC islets survive and gradually mature after transplantation, leading to improved glycemic control in diabetic primates. Notably, C-peptide secretion responds to meal challenge from 6 weeks post-transplantation (wpt), with stimulation indices comparable to those of native islets. The average post-prandial C-peptide level reaches approximately 2.0 ng ml-1 from 8 wpt, which is five times higher than the peak value we previously obtained after portal vein infusion of hPSC islets and was associated with a decrease of glycated hemoglobin levels by 44% at 12 wpt. Although additional studies in larger cohorts involving long-term follow-up of transplants are needed, our results indicate that the subanterior rectus sheath supports functional maturation and maintenance of hPSC islets, suggesting that it warrants further exploration as a transplantation target site in the context of for hPSC-based cell-replacement therapies.

PHF3 Technique: A Pyramid Hybrid Feature Fusion Framework for Severity Classification of Ulcerative Colitis Using Endoscopic Images.

Evaluating the severity of ulcerative colitis (UC) through the Mayo endoscopic subscore (MES) is crucial for understanding patient conditions and providing effective treatment. However, UC lesions present different characteristics in endoscopic images, exacerbating interclass similarities and intraclass differences in MES classification. In addition, inexperience and review fatigue in endoscopists introduces nontrivial challenges to the reliability and repeatability of MES evaluations. In this paper, we propose a pyramid hybrid feature fusion framework (PHF3) as an auxiliary diagnostic tool for clinical UC severity classification. Specifically, the PHF3 model has a dual-branch hybrid architecture with ResNet50 and a pyramid vision Transformer (PvT), where the local features extracted by ResNet50 represent the relationship between the intestinal wall at the near-shot point and its depth, and the global representations modeled by the PvT capture similar information in the cross-section of the intestinal cavity. Furthermore, a feature fusion module (FFM) is designed to combine local features with global representations, while second-order pooling (SOP) is applied to enhance discriminative information in the classification process. The experimental results show that, compared with existing methods, the proposed PHF3 model has competitive performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of MES 0, MES 1, MES 2, and MES 3 reached 0.996, 0.972, 0.967, and 0.990, respectively, and the overall accuracy reached 88.91%. Thus, our proposed method is valuable for developing an auxiliary assessment system for UC severity.

A Method for Improving the Prediction of Outpatient Visits for Hospital Management: Bayesian Autoregressive Analysis.

The number of outpatient visits is generally influenced by various factors that are difficult to quantify and obtain, resulting in some irregular fluctuations. The traditional statistical methodology seldom considers these uncertainties. Accordingly, this paper presents a Bayesian autoregressive (AR) analysis to propose a forecasting framework to cope with the strict requirements. The AR model was conducted to identify the linear and autocorrelation relationships of historical series, and Bayesian inference was used to correct and optimize the AR model parameters. Posterior distribution of parameters was stably and reliably obtained by Gibbs sampling on the condition of the convergent Markov chain. Meanwhile, the lag orders of the AR model were adjusted based on the series characteristics. To increase the variability and generality of the dataset, the developed Bayesian AR model was evaluated at seven hospitals in China. The results demonstrated that the Bayesian AR model had varying degrees of decline in the MAPE value in the seven sets of experimental data. The reductions ranged from 0.1431% to 0.0342%, indicating effective optimization of the Bayesian inference in the AR model parameters and reflecting the useful correction of the lag order adjustment strategy. The proposed Bayesian AR framework showed high accuracy index and stable prediction accuracy, thereby outperforming the traditional AR model.