RESUMEN
Infectious disease dynamics are driven by the complex interplay of epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary processes. Accurately modeling these interactions is crucial for understanding pathogen spread and informing public health strategies. However, existing simulators often fail to capture the dynamic interplay between these processes, resulting in oversimplified models that do not fully reflect real-world complexities in which the pathogen's genetic evolution dynamically influences disease transmission. We introduce the epidemiological-ecological-evolutionary simulator (e3SIM), an open-source framework that concurrently models the transmission dynamics and molecular evolution of pathogens within a host population while integrating environmental factors. Using an agent-based, discrete-generation, forward-in-time approach, e3SIM incorporates compartmental models, host-population contact networks, and quantitative-trait models for pathogens. This integration allows for realistic simulations of disease spread and pathogen evolution. Key features include a modular and scalable design, flexibility in modeling various epidemiological and population-genetic complexities, incorporation of time-varying environmental factors, and a user-friendly graphical interface. We demonstrate e3SIM's capabilities through simulations of realistic outbreak scenarios with SARS-CoV-2 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis, illustrating its flexibility for studying the genomic epidemiology of diverse pathogen types.
RESUMEN
Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination requires treatment access expansion, especially for underserved populations. Telehealth has the potential to improve HCV treatment access, although data are limited on its incorporation into standard clinical practice. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, e-mail survey of 598 US HCV treatment providers who had valid email addresses and 1) were located in urban areas and had written ≥20 prescriptions for HCV treatment to US Medicare beneficiaries in 2019-20 or 2) were located in non-urban areas and wrote any HCV prescriptions in 2019-20. Through email, we notified providers of a self-administered electronic 28-item survey of clinical strategies and attitudes about telemedicine for HCV. Results: We received 86 responses (14% response rate), of which 75 used telemedicine for HCV in 2022. Of those 75, 24% were gastroenterologists/hepatologists, 23% general medicine, 17% infectious diseases, and 32% non-physicians. Most (82%) referred patients to commercial laboratories, and 85% had medications delivered directly to patients. Overwhelmingly, respondents (92%) felt that telehealth increases healthcare access, and 76% reported that it promotes or is neutral for treatment completion. Factors believed to be "extremely" or "very" important for telehealth use included patient access to technology (86%); patients' internet access (74%); laboratory access (76%); reimbursement for video visits (74%) and audio-only visits (66%). Non-physician licensing and liability statutes were rated "extremely" or "very" important by 43% and 44%, respectively. Conclusions: Providers felt that telehealth increases HCV treatment access. Major limitations were technological requirements, reimbursement, and access to ancillary services. These findings support the importance of digital equity and literacy to achieve HCV elimination goals.
RESUMEN
Background: Time-course multi-omics experiments have been highly informative for obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic relationships between molecules in a biological process, especially if the different profiles are obtained from the same samples. A fundamental step in analyzing time-course multi-omics data involves selecting a short list of genes or gene regions ("sites") that warrant further study. Two important criteria for site selection are the magnitude of change and the temporal dynamic consistency. However, existing methods only consider one of these criteria, while neglecting the other. Results: In our study, we propose a framework called MINT-DE (Multi-omics INtegration of Time-course for Diffierential Expression analysis) to address this limitation. MINT-DE is capable of selecting sites based on summarized measures of both aforementioned aspects. We calculate evidence measures assessing the extent of differential expression for each assay and for the dynamical similarity across assays. Then based on the summary of the evidence assessment measures, sites are ranked. To evaluate the performance of MINT-DE, we apply it to analyze a time-course multi-omics dataset of Drosophila development. We compare the selection obtained from MINT-DE with those obtained from other existing methods. The analysis reveal that MINT-DE is able to identify differentially expressed time-course pairs with the highest correlations. Their corresponding genes are significantly enriched for known biological functions, as measured by gene-gene interaction networks and the Gene Ontology enrichment. Conclusions: These findings suggest the effectiveness of MINT-DE in selecting sites that are both differentially expressed within at least one assay and temporally related across assays. This highlights the potential of MINT-DE to identify biologically important sites for downstream analysis and provide a complementarity of sites that is neglected by existing methods.
RESUMEN
We introduce a new two-sample inference procedure to assess the relative performance of two groups over time. Our model-free method does not assume proportional hazards, making it suitable for scenarios where nonproportional hazards may exist. Our procedure includes a diagnostic tau plot to identify changes in hazard timing and a formal inference procedure. The tau-based measures we develop are clinically meaningful and provide interpretable estimands to summarize the treatment effect over time. Our proposed statistic is a U-statistic and exhibits a martingale structure, allowing us to construct confidence intervals and perform hypothesis testing. Our approach is robust with respect to the censoring distribution. We also demonstrate how our method can be applied for sensitivity analysis in scenarios with missing tail information due to insufficient follow-up. Without censoring, Kendall's tau estimator we propose reduces to the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney statistic. We evaluate our method using simulations to compare its performance with the restricted mean survival time and log-rank statistics. We also apply our approach to data from several published oncology clinical trials where nonproportional hazards may exist.
Asunto(s)
Neoplasias , Humanos , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Oncología Médica , Proyectos de Investigación , Análisis de SupervivenciaRESUMEN
A mixture-model of beta distributions framework is introduced to identify significant correlations among P features when P is large. The method relies on theorems in convex geometry, which are used to show how to control the error rate of edge detection in graphical models. The proposed 'betaMix' method does not require any assumptions about the network structure, nor does it assume that the network is sparse. The results hold for a wide class of data-generating distributions that include light-tailed and heavy-tailed spherically symmetric distributions. The results are robust for sufficiently large sample sizes and hold for non-elliptically-symmetric distributions.
RESUMEN
Sex peptide (SP), a seminal fluid protein of Drosophila melanogaster males, has been described as driving a virgin-to-mated switch in females, through eliciting an array of responses including increased egg laying, activity, and food intake and a decreased remating rate. While it is known that SP achieves this, at least in part, by altering neuronal signaling in females, the genetic architecture and temporal dynamics of the female's response to SP remain elusive. We used a high-resolution time series RNA-sequencing dataset of female heads at 10 time points within the first 24 h after mating to learn about the genetic architecture, at the gene and exon levels, of the female's response to SP. We find that SP is not essential to trigger early aspects of a virgin-to-mated transcriptional switch, which includes changes in a metabolic gene regulatory network. However, SP is needed to maintain and diversify metabolic changes and to trigger changes in a neuronal gene regulatory network. We further find that SP alters rhythmic gene expression in females and suggests that SP's disruption of the female's circadian rhythm might be key to its widespread effects.
Asunto(s)
Relojes Circadianos , Proteínas de Drosophila , Animales , Masculino , Femenino , Drosophila melanogaster/metabolismo , Proteínas de Drosophila/metabolismo , Espermatozoides/metabolismo , Relojes Circadianos/genética , Factores de Tiempo , Péptidos/metabolismo , Perfilación de la Expresión Génica , Conducta Sexual Animal/fisiologíaRESUMEN
The fragility index has been increasingly used to assess the robustness of the results of clinical trials since 2014. It aims at finding the smallest number of event changes that could alter originally statistically significant results. Despite its popularity, some researchers have expressed several concerns about the validity and usefulness of the fragility index. It offers a comprehensive review of the fragility index's rationale, calculation, software, and interpretation, with emphasis on application to studies in obstetrics and gynecology. This article presents the fragility index in the settings of individual clinical trials, standard pairwise meta-analyses, and network meta-analyses. Moreover, this article provides worked examples to demonstrate how the fragility index can be appropriately calculated and interpreted. In addition, the limitations of the traditional fragility index and some solutions proposed in the literature to address these limitations were reviewed. In summary, the fragility index is recommended to be used as a supplemental measure in the reporting of clinical trials and a tool to communicate the robustness of trial results to clinicians. Other considerations that can aid in the fragility index's interpretation include the loss to follow-up and the likelihood of data modifications that achieve the loss of statistical significance.
Asunto(s)
Probabilidad , Humanos , Metaanálisis en Red , Metaanálisis como Asunto , Ensayos Clínicos como AsuntoRESUMEN
Since the introduction of integrated histological and molecular diagnoses by the 2016 World Health Organization (WHO) Classification of Tumors of the Nervous System, an increasing number of molecular markers have been found to have prognostic significance in infiltrating gliomas, many of which have now become incorporated as diagnostic criteria in the 2021 WHO Classification. This has increased the applicability of targeted-next generation sequencing in the diagnostic work-up of neuropathology specimens and in addition, raises the question of whether targeted sequencing can, in practice, reliably replace older, more traditional diagnostic methods such as immunohistochemistry and fluorescence in-situ hybridization. Here, we demonstrate that the Oncomine Cancer Gene Mutation Panel v2 assay targeted-next generation sequencing panel for solid tumors is not only superior to IHC in detecting mutation in IDH1/2 and TP53 but can also predict 1p/19q co-deletion with high sensitivity and specificity relative to fluorescence in-situ hybridization by looking at average copy number of genes sequenced on 1p, 1q, 19p, and 19q. Along with detecting the same molecular data obtained from older methods, targeted-next generation sequencing with an RNA sequencing component provides additional information regarding the presence of RNA based alterations that have diagnostic significance and possible therapeutic implications. From this work, we advocate for expanded use of targeted-next generation sequencing over more traditional methods for the detection of important molecular alterations as a part of the standard diagnostic work up for CNS neoplasms.
Asunto(s)
Glioma , Humanos , Glioma/diagnóstico , Glioma/genética , Glioma/patología , Neuropatología , Secuenciación de Nucleótidos de Alto Rendimiento/métodos , Análisis de Secuencia de ARN , ADNRESUMEN
PURPOSE: Prolonged observation could avoid invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and related risks in patients with Covid-19 acute respiratory failure (ARF) compared to initiating early IMV. We aimed to determine the association between ARF management strategy and in-hospital mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients in the Weill Cornell Covid-19 registry who developed ARF between March 5 - March 25, 2020 were exposed to an early IMV strategy; between March 26 - April 1, 2020 to an intermediate strategy; and after April 2 to prolonged observation. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model in-hospital mortality and test an interaction between ARF management strategy and modified sequential organ failure assessment (mSOFA). RESULTS: Among 632 patients with ARF, 24% of patients in the early IMV strategy died versus 28% in prolonged observation. At lower mSOFA, prolonged observation was associated with lower mortality compared to early IMV (at mSOFA = 0, HR 0.16 [95% CI 0.04-0.57]). Mortality risk increased in the prolonged observation strategy group with each point increase in mSOFA score (HR 1.29 [95% CI 1.10-1.51], p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: In Covid-19 ARF, prolonged observation was associated with a mortality benefit at lower mSOFA scores, and increased mortality at higher mSOFA scores compared to early IMV.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Síndrome de Dificultad Respiratoria , Insuficiencia Respiratoria , COVID-19/terapia , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Humanos , Puntuaciones en la Disfunción de Órganos , Respiración Artificial , Insuficiencia Respiratoria/terapiaRESUMEN
Studies of the impact of host genetics on gut microbiome composition have mainly focused on the impact of individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on gut microbiome composition, without considering their collective impact or the specific functions of the microbiome. To assess the aggregate role of human genetics on the gut microbiome composition and function, we apply sparse canonical correlation analysis (sCCA), a flexible, multivariate data integration method. A critical attribute of metagenome data is its sparsity, and here we propose application of a Tweedie distribution to accommodate this. We use the TwinsUK cohort to analyze the gut microbiomes and human variants of 250 individuals. Sparse CCA, or sCCA, identified SNPs in microbiome-associated metabolic traits (BMI, blood pressure) and microbiome-associated disorders (type 2 diabetes, some neurological disorders) and certain cancers. Both common and rare microbial functions such as secretion system proteins or antibiotic resistance were found to be associated with host genetics. sCCA applied to microbial species abundances found known associations such as Bifidobacteria species, as well as novel associations. Despite our small sample size, our method can identify not only previously known associations, but novel ones as well. Overall, we present a new and flexible framework for examining host-microbiome genetic interactions, and we provide a new dimension to the current debate around the role of human genetics on the gut microbiome.
Asunto(s)
Microbioma Gastrointestinal , Genoma Humano , HumanosRESUMEN
Older individuals with chronic health conditions are at highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes from COVID-19, but there is widespread belief that risk to younger, relatively lower-risk individuals is negligible. We assessed the rate and predictors of life-threatening complications among relatively lower-risk adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Of 3766 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 to three hospitals in New York City from March to May 2020, 963 were relatively lower-risk based on absence of preexisting health conditions. Multivariable logistic regression models examined in-hospital development of life-threatening complications (major medical events, intubation, or death). Covariates included age, sex, race/ethnicity, hypertension, weight, insurance type, and area-level sociodemographic factors (poverty, crowdedness, and limited English proficiency). In individuals ≥55 years old (n = 522), 33.3% experienced a life-threatening complication, 17.4% were intubated, and 22.6% died. Among those <55 years (n = 441), 15.0% experienced a life-threatening complication, 11.1% were intubated, and 5.9% died. In multivariable analyses among those ≥55 years, age (OR 1.03 [95%CI 1.01-1.06]), male sex (OR 1.72 [95%CI 1.14-2.64]), being publicly insured (versus commercial insurance: Medicare, OR 2.02 [95%CI 1.22-3.38], Medicaid, OR 1.87 [95%CI 1.10-3.20]) and living in areas with relatively high limited English proficiency (highest versus lowest quartile: OR 3.50 [95%CI 1.74-7.13]) predicted life-threatening complications. In those <55 years, no sociodemographic factors significantly predicted life-threatening complications. A substantial proportion of relatively lower-risk patients hospitalized with COVID-19 experienced life-threatening complications and more than 1 in 20 died. Public messaging needs to effectively convey that relatively lower-risk individuals are still at risk of serious complications.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19/patología , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Hipertensión/complicaciones , Factores de Edad , COVID-19/complicaciones , COVID-19/etnología , COVID-19/virología , Femenino , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Humanos , Tiempo de Internación , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Factores SexualesRESUMEN
The fragility index is a clinically meaningful metric based on modifying patient outcomes that is increasingly used to interpret the robustness of clinical trial results. The fragility index relies on a concept that explores alternative realizations of the same clinical trial by modifying patient measurements. In this article, we propose to generalize the fragility index to a family of fragility indices called the incidence fragility indices that permit only outcome modifications that are sufficiently likely and provide an exact algorithm to calculate the incidence fragility indices. Additionally, we introduce a far-reaching generalization of the fragility index to any data type and explain how to permit only sufficiently likely modifications for nondichotomous outcomes. All of the proposed methodologies follow the fragility index concept.
Asunto(s)
Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Algoritmos , Humanos , Proyectos de Investigación , Tamaño de la MuestraRESUMEN
Public health interventions such as social distancing and mask wearing decrease the incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but it is unclear whether they decrease the viral load of infected patients and whether changes in viral load impact mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated 6923 patients with COVID-19 at six New York City hospitals from March 15-May 14, 2020, corresponding with the implementation of public health interventions in March. We assessed changes in cycle threshold (CT) values from reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests and in-hospital mortality and modeled the impact of viral load on mortality. Mean CT values increased between March and May, with the proportion of patients with high viral load decreasing from 47.7% to 7.8%. In-hospital mortality increased from 14.9% in March to 28.4% in early April, and then decreased to 8.7% by May. Patients with high viral loads had increased mortality compared to those with low viral loads (adjusted odds ratio 2.34). If viral load had not declined, an estimated 69 additional deaths would have occurred (5.8% higher mortality). SARS-CoV-2 viral load steadily declined among hospitalized patients in the setting of public health interventions, and this correlated with decreases in mortality.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19/virología , Mortalidad Hospitalaria/tendencias , Carga Viral/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/mortalidad , Prueba de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , New York , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Clinical trials routinely have patients lost to follow up. We propose a methodology to understand their possible effect on the results of statistical tests by altering the concept of the fragility index to treat the outcomes of observed patients as fixed but incorporate the potential outcomes of patients lost to follow up as random and subject to modification. METHODS: We reanalyse the statistical results of three clinical trials on coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) to study the possible effect of patients lost to follow up on the treatment effect statistical significance. To do so, we introduce the LTFU-aware fragility indices as a measure of the robustness of a clinical trial's statistical results with respect to patients lost to follow up. RESULTS: The analyses illustrate that clinical trials can either be completely robust to the outcomes of patients lost to follow up, extremely sensitive to the outcomes of patients lost to follow up, or in an intermediate state. When a clinical trial is in an intermediate state, the LTFU-aware fragility indices provide an interpretable measure to quantify the degree of fragility or robustness. CONCLUSIONS: The LTFU-aware fragility indices allow researchers to rigorously explore the outcomes of patients who are lost to follow up, when their data is the appropriate kind. The LTFU-aware fragility indices are sensitivity measures in a way that the original fragility index is not.
Asunto(s)
Perdida de Seguimiento , HumanosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The fragility index is a clinically interpretable metric increasingly used to interpret the robustness of clinical trials results that is generally not incorporated in sample size calculation and applied post-hoc. In this manuscript, we propose to base the sample size calculation on the fragility index in a way that supplements the classical prefixed alpha and power cutoffs and we provide a dedicated R software package for the design and analysis tools. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This approach follows from a novel hypothesis testing framework that is based on the fragility index and builds on the classical testing approach. As case studies, we re-analyse the design of two important trials in cardiovascular medicine, the FAME and FAMOUS-NSTEMI trials. RESULTS: The analyses show that approach returns sample sizes which results in a higher power for the P value based test and most importantly a lower and context dependent Type I error rate for the fragility index based test compared to standard tests. CONCLUSION: Our method allows clinicians to control for the fragility index during clinical trial design.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/terapia , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto/estadística & datos numéricos , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto/normas , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/normas , Proyectos de Investigación/normas , Tamaño de la Muestra , Algoritmos , Humanos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/estadística & datos numéricos , Proyectos de Investigación/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Immune responses need to be initiated rapidly, and maintained as needed, to prevent establishment and growth of infections. At the same time, resources need to be balanced with other physiological processes. On the level of transcription, studies have shown that this balancing act is reflected in tight control of the initiation kinetics and shutdown dynamics of specific immune genes. RESULTS: To investigate genome-wide expression dynamics and trade-offs after infection at a high temporal resolution, we performed an RNA-seq time course on D. melanogaster with 20 time points post Imd stimulation. A combination of methods, including spline fitting, cluster analysis, and Granger causality inference, allowed detailed dissection of expression profiles, lead-lag interactions, and functional annotation of genes through guilt-by-association. We identified Imd-responsive genes and co-expressed, less well characterized genes, with an immediate-early response and sustained up-regulation up to 5 days after stimulation. In contrast, stress response and Toll-responsive genes, among which were Bomanins, demonstrated early and transient responses. We further observed a strong trade-off with metabolic genes, which strikingly recovered to pre-infection levels before the immune response was fully resolved. CONCLUSIONS: This high-dimensional dataset enabled the comprehensive study of immune response dynamics through the parallel application of multiple temporal data analysis methods. The well annotated data set should also serve as a useful resource for further investigation of the D. melanogaster innate immune response, and for the development of methods for analysis of a post-stress transcriptional response time-series at whole-genome scale.