Pain prevalence, intensity, and association with neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia in immigrant and non-immigrant aged care residents in Australia.

Pain recognition for culturally diverse people is complex as pain experience is subjective and influenced by cultural background. We compared the prevalence, intensity, and association of pain with neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) between immigrants and non-immigrants living with dementia in residential aged care homes (RACHs) who were referred to two Dementia Support Australia programs. Immigrant status was defined by the documented country of birth. Pain and NPS were assessed using PainChek® and the Neuropsychiatric Inventory, respectively. Subgroup analyses were also completed for English-speaking and non-English-speaking immigrants. A total of 17,637 referrals [immigrants, n = 6340; non-immigrants, n = 11,297] from 2792 RACHs were included. There were no significant differences for the prevalence of pain across all groups. Immigrants were slightly more likely to have moderate pain or severe pain than non-immigrants. Non-English-speaking immigrants had 0.5 points higher total pain scores on average (Cohen's d = 0.10 [0.05, 0.15], p < 0.001) than non-immigrants. Total pain score had a significant effect on total NPS severity scores in all groups. While pain prevalence is similar across groups, higher pain intensities are more common among immigrants living with dementia. Increased care staff awareness, education, and training about the potential effect of culture on pain expression is needed.

Forensic mental health: envisioning a more empirical future.

Forensic mental health services provide crucial interventions for society. Such services provide care for people with mental disorders who commit violent and other serious crimes, and they have a key role in the protection of the public. To achieve these goals, these services are necessarily expensive, but they have been criticised for a high-cost, low-volume approach, for lacking consistent standards of care, and for neglecting human rights and other ethical considerations. A key concern is an insufficient evidence base to justify common practices, such as restricting leave from hospital and detaining patients for long periods. There is also insufficient quality evidence for core interventions, including psychological therapies, pharmacotherapy, and seclusion and restraint. The causes for this evidence deficit are complex but include insufficient investment in research infrastructure and fragmentation and isolationism of services, both nationally and internationally. In this Personal View, we highlight some of the major gaps in the forensic mental health evidence base and the challenges in addressing these gaps. We suggest solutions with implications at clinical, societal, and public health policy levels.

Using Electronic Health Records to Facilitate Precision Psychiatry.

The use of clinical prediction models to produce individualized risk estimates can facilitate the implementation of precision psychiatry. As a source of data from large, clinically representative patient samples, electronic health records (EHRs) provide a platform to develop and validate clinical prediction models, as well as potentially implement them in routine clinical care. The current review describes promising use cases for the application of precision psychiatry to EHR data and considers their performance in terms of discrimination (ability to separate individuals with and without the outcome) and calibration (extent to which predicted risk estimates correspond to observed outcomes), as well as their potential clinical utility (weighing benefits and costs associated with the model compared to different approaches across different assumptions of the number needed to test). We review 4 externally validated clinical prediction models designed to predict psychosis onset, psychotic relapse, cardiometabolic morbidity, and suicide risk. We then discuss the prospects for clinically implementing these models and the potential added value of integrating data from evidence syntheses, standardized psychometric assessments, and biological data into EHRs. Clinical prediction models can utilize routinely collected EHR data in an innovative way, representing a unique opportunity to inform real-world clinical decision making. Combining data from other sources (e.g., meta-analyses) or enhancing EHR data with information from research studies (clinical and biomarker data) may enhance our abilities to improve the performance of clinical prediction models.

Approaches and challenges to assessing risk of violence in first episode psychosis: A qualitative interview study of clinicians, patients and carers.

AIM: Clinical services for early psychosis seek to improve prognosis for a range of adverse outcomes. For some individuals, perpetration of violence is an important potential outcome to reduce. How these clinical services currently assess this risk however is uncertain. This study aimed to address this gap by using qualitative methods to examine in depth current approaches, attitudes and challenges to assessing violence risk in this clinical setting, from the perspectives of multidisciplinary clinicians, patients and carers. METHODS: Participants were recruited from two UK Early Intervention in Psychosis services. Semi-structured individual interviews were undertaken using a topic guide. In addition, clinical vignettes were presented to clinician participants as a probe to prompt discussion. Data were analysed using thematic analysis, informed by the constant comparative method. RESULTS: We conducted 30 qualitative interviews, of 18 clinicians and 12 patients and carers. Themes developed from clinician interviews included key difficulties of low confidence, limited training, accessing collateral information and variation in how risk is appraised and communicated. Potential stigma and sensitivity of the topic of violence were perceived as barriers to its discussion. Patient and carer perspectives provided insight into how to address barriers, and highlighted the importance of an open approach, including with families. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend developing contextually appropriate pathways to collaboratively assess violence risk and identify modifiable needs to reduce this risk, and for practical improvements in training and information-sharing.

Neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia in those with and without a recorded history of psychological trauma: A comparative study from an Australian dementia support service.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the number and severity of neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) and associated caregiver distress between those with and without a noted history of psychological trauma among those referred to a specialised national dementia NPS support service. METHODS: This was a 5-year retrospective observational study of records from the Dementia Support Australia NPS support service. NPS were reported by formal or informal caregivers at service entry using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Nursing Home version or Questionnaire version. A history of psychological trauma was recorded in the person's social or medical history and/or endorsed as a contributor to NPS by a trained dementia consultant after a comprehensive clinical review. Regression was used to examine the impact of a recorded history of psychological trauma on NPS severity and associated caregiver distress, controlling for age and sex. RESULTS: Among 41,876 eligible referrals with dementia, 6% (n = 2529) had some reference in their records to a history of psychological trauma. Referrals with a recorded history of psychological trauma were rated with a higher rate of both NPS severity (mean = 12.0) and associated caregiver distress (mean = 16.5) at service entry than those without a recorded history of psychological trauma (means = 10.7 and 14.5, respectively). A recorded history of psychological trauma was associated with higher odds of psychotic symptoms, agitation/aggression, irritability, disinhibition, affective symptoms and night-time behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: Traumatic stress symptoms may represent a neglected target for intervention to reduce the impact of NPS in people with dementia.

Effectiveness of Violence Prevention Interventions: Umbrella Review of Research in the General Population.

To address the societal harms of violence, many violence prevention interventions have been developed, tested, and implemented in the general population. These have been reported in systematic reviews and meta-analyses, which have typically focused on one type of intervention or outcome. We aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current evidence regarding the effectiveness of different psychosocial interventions in reducing all forms of violence toward others. We have conducted an umbrella review of previous meta-analyses using standard approaches and converted findings on effectiveness into odds ratios. We tested for the underlying quality of the meta-analytic evidence by examining heterogeneity, excess statistical significance, prediction intervals, and small study effects. We identified 16 meta-analyses, including nine investigating psychosocial interventions, and five legislative and policy changes. Most meta-analyses reported positive effects of tested interventions. The strongest effects were found for sports-based initiatives, and the weakest for general population programs aimed at early childhood, youth development, and reducing sexual assault perpetration by men. Legislative changes had varying effectiveness. We conclude that simple, scalable, and cost-efficient programs, such as sport-based initiatives, have the clearest empirical support as population-based approaches to violence prevention.

Comparing clinico-demographics and neuropsychiatric symptoms for immigrant and non-immigrant aged care residents living with dementia: a retrospective cross-sectional study from an Australian dementia-specific support service.

BACKGROUND: Neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia such as agitation and aggression are common in people living with dementia. The presentation of neuropsychiatric symptoms is influenced by the cultural background of people living with dementia. Further, identifying factors contributing to neuropsychiatric symptoms may be complicated if people living with dementia are immigrants or from non-English-speaking backgrounds. Most of what is known about differences in neuropsychiatric symptoms between racial and ethnic groups living with dementia come from community-based samples. This study investigated differences in clinico-demographics and neuropsychiatric symptoms between immigrants and non-immigrants living with dementia in residential aged care homes who were referred to two Dementia Support Australia programs. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational cross-sectional study from 2018 to 2022 using data extracted from the Dementia Support Australia database. Immigrant status was identified by documented country of birth. We conducted exploratory subgroup analyses for English-speaking or non-English-speaking immigrants in comparison to non-immigrants. Neuropsychiatric Inventory and PainChek® were used to assess neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia and pain, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 23,889 referrals, 36% were immigrants living with dementia. Immigrants were 0.8 years older than non-immigrants on average. Immigrants had a slightly higher prevalence of mixed dementia (9.5%) than non-immigrants (8.2%). Overall, the groups had no difference in the severity of neuropsychiatric symptoms and associated caregiver distress. However, there was a significant difference in the total number of neuropsychiatric inventory domains (Cohen's d = -0.06 [-0.09, - 0.02], p <.001) between non-English-speaking immigrants and non-immigrants. Immigrants were more likely to present with agitation/aggression, while non-immigrants were more likely to present with hallucinations. Factors contributing to neuropsychiatric symptoms were common between the groups, with language barriers and cultural considerations frequently endorsed for immigrants. CONCLUSION: This study reveals a mixed picture of neuropsychiatric symptoms between immigrants and non-immigrants. However, due to the exploratory nature of the hypotheses, our findings need to be replicated in future studies to confirm any conclusions. There is a need for increased awareness on the impact of culture and language on neuropsychiatric symptoms for people receiving residential care. Future studies investigating neuropsychiatric symptoms in different immigrant groups will help increase our understanding of neuropsychiatric symptoms for all people.

An umbrella review of adverse effects associated with antipsychotic medications: the need for complementary study designs.

Antipsychotic medications are widely prescribed in psychotic illnesses and other mental disorders. Effectiveness is well-established, particularly for reducing symptoms such as delusions and hallucinations, but can be impacted by tolerability. Adverse effects are wide-ranging, and vary between antipsychotics, which is clinically important. This umbrella review aimed to comprehensively summarise the extent and quality of evidence for adverse effects associated with antipsychotic use in people with mental disorders. We included 32 meta-analyses of randomised trials and observational studies. The overall robustness of reported associations was considered in terms of review quality, heterogeneity, excess significance bias, and prediction intervals. Using this approach, endocrine and metabolic, movement-related, and sedation and sleep problems were the clinical domains with strongest evidence. The overall quality of included meta-analyses was low, and individual adverse effects were not typically examined in meta-analyses of both randomised trials and observational study designs. Future reviews should focus on adhering to methodological guidelines, consider the complementary strengths of different study designs, and integrate clinically relevant information on absolute rates and severity of adverse effects.

Violence risk assessment instruments in forensic psychiatric populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although structured tools have been widely used to predict violence risk in specialist mental health settings, there is uncertainty about the extent and quality of evidence of their predictive performance. We aimed to systematically review the predictive performance of tools used to assess violence risk in forensic mental health, where they are routinely administered. METHODS: In our systematic review and meta-analysis, we followed PRISMA guidelines and searched four databases (PsycINFO, Embase, Medline, and Global Health) from database inception to Nov 1, 2022, to identify studies examining the predictive performance of risk assessment tools in people discharged from forensic (secure) mental health hospitals. Systematic and narrative reviews were excluded from the review. Performance measures and descriptive statistics were extracted from published reports. A quality assessment was performed for each study using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Meta-analysis was conducted on the performance of instruments that were independently externally validated with a sample size greater than 100. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022304716. FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic review of 50 eligible publications, assessing the predictive performance of 36 tools, providing data for 10 460 participants (88% men, 12% women; median age [from 47 studies] was 35 years, IQR 33-38) from 12 different countries. Post-discharge interpersonal violence and crime was most often measured by new criminal offences or recidivism (47 [94%] of 50 studies); only three studies used informant or self-report data on physical aggression or violent behaviour. Overall, the predictive performance of risk assessment tools was mixed. Most studies reported one discrimination metric, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); other key performance measures such as calibration, sensitivity, and specificity were not presented. Most studies had a high risk of bias (49 [98%] of 50), partly due to poor analytical approaches. A meta-analysis was conducted for violent recidivism on 29 independent external validations from 19 studies with at least 100 patients. Pooled AUCs for predicting violent outcomes ranged from 0·72 (0·65-0·79; I2=0%) for H10, to 0·69 for the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 version 2 (95% CI 0·65-0·72; I2=0%) and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (0·63-0·75; I2=0%), to 0·64 for the Static-99 (0·53-0·73; I2=45%). INTERPRETATION: Current violence risk assessment tools in forensic mental health have mixed evidence of predictive performance. Forensic mental health services should review their use of current risk assessment tools and consider implementing those with higher-quality evidence in support. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Assessing violence risk in first-episode psychosis: external validation, updating and net benefit of a prediction tool (OxMIV).

BACKGROUND: Violence perpetration is a key outcome to prevent for an important subgroup of individuals presenting to mental health services, including early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services. Needs and risks are typically assessed without structured methods, which could facilitate consistency and accuracy. Prediction tools, such as OxMIV (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool), could provide a structured risk stratification approach, but require external validation in clinical settings. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to validate and update OxMIV in first-episode psychosis and consider its benefit as a complement to clinical assessment. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of individuals assessed in two UK EIP services was included. Electronic health records were used to extract predictors and risk judgements made by assessing clinicians. Outcome data involved police and healthcare records for violence perpetration in the 12 months post-assessment. FINDINGS: Of 1145 individuals presenting to EIP services, 131 (11%) perpetrated violence during the 12 month follow-up. OxMIV showed good discrimination (area under the curve 0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80). Calibration-in-the-large was also good after updating the model constant. Using a 10% cut-off, sensitivity was 71% (95% CI 63% to 80%), specificity 66% (63% to 69%), positive predictive value 22% (19% to 24%) and negative predictive value 95% (93% to 96%). In contrast, clinical judgement sensitivity was 40% and specificity 89%. Decision curve analysis showed net benefit of OxMIV over comparison approaches. CONCLUSIONS: OxMIV performed well in this real-world validation, with improved sensitivity compared with unstructured assessments. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Structured tools to assess violence risk, such as OxMIV, have potential in first-episode psychosis to support a stratified approach to allocating non-harmful interventions to individuals who may benefit from the largest absolute risk reduction.

Clinico-demographics of people with younger-onset dementia and neuropsychiatric symptoms referred to an Australian dementia support service: A comparison study with older-onset dementia.

OBJECTIVE: Younger-onset dementia accounts for about 5-10% of all dementias in Australia. Little data is available on neuropsychiatric symptoms in people with younger-onset dementia compared to those with older-onset dementia. This study aims to compare the types of neuropsychiatric symptoms and their clinico-demographic characteristics of people with younger-onset dementia and older-onset dementia who are referred to a specific dementia support service. METHODS: A 2-year retrospective observational cross-sectional analysis was undertaken on referrals with neuropsychiatric symptoms from Dementia Support Australia programmes. Neuropsychiatric symptoms were measured using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory total severity scores and distress scores. Contributing factors to neuropsychiatric symptoms for dementia groups were examined. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between individual neuropsychiatric symptoms and having older-onset dementia vs younger-onset dementia. RESULTS: Of the 15,952 referrals, about 5% (n = 729, mean age: 60.7 years, standard deviation = 5.4) were individuals with younger-onset dementia. Referrals with older-onset dementia were more likely to be female (56%), whereas referrals with younger-onset dementia were more likely to be male (54%). There was a four times greater rate of frontotemporal dementia for those with younger-onset dementia (16.0%, n = 117) compared to those with older-onset dementia (2.8%, n = 427), χ2 (1) = 366.2, p < 0.001. Referrals with younger-onset dementia were more likely to be referred from community settings and those with older-onset dementia were more likely to be from residential aged care. Overall, there was no difference in the severity and distress of neuropsychiatric symptoms between the two groups. Contributing factors to neuropsychiatric symptoms were different between the groups, with pain being more frequently endorsed for individuals with older-onset dementia whereas communication difficulties were more commonly identified for those with younger-onset dementia. CONCLUSION: Clinico-demographics of referrals with younger-onset dementia differ from those with older-onset dementia. There were some differences in the characteristics of neuropsychiatric symptoms between younger-onset dementia and older-onset dementia. Our findings have implications for service provision and support for people with dementia at different ages.

Rapid readout of terahertz orbital angular momentum beams using atom-based imaging.

We demonstrate the rapid readout of terahertz orbital angular momentum (OAM) beams using an atomic-vapor-based imaging technique. OAM modes with both azimuthal and radial indices are created using phase-only transmission plates. The beams undergo terahertz-to-optical conversion in an atomic vapor, before being imaged in the far field using an optical CCD camera. In addition to the spatial intensity profile, we also observe the self-interferogram of the beams by imaging through a tilted lens, allowing the sign and magnitude of the azimuthal index to be read out directly. Using this technique, we can reliably read out the OAM mode of low-intensity beams with high fidelity in 10 ms. Such a demonstration is expected to have far-reaching consequences for proposed applications of terahertz OAM beams in communications and microscopy.

Association of Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders and Violence Perpetration in Adults and Adolescents From 15 Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Violence perpetration outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders contribute to morbidity and mortality at a population level, disrupt care, and lead to stigma. Objective: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk of perpetrating interpersonal violence in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders compared with general population control individuals. Data Sources: Multiple databases were searched for studies in any language from January 1970 to March 2021 using the terms violen* or homicid* and psychosis or psychoses or psychotic or schizophren* or schizoaffective or delusional and terms for mental disorders. Bibliographies of included articles were hand searched. Study Selection: The study included case-control and cohort studies that allowed risks of interpersonal violence perpetration and/or violent criminality in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders to be compared with a general population group without these disorders. Data Extraction and Synthesis: The study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines and the Meta-analyses of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) proposal. Two reviewers extracted data. Quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was violence to others obtained either through official records, self-report and/or collateral-report, or medical file review and included any physical assault, robbery, sexual offenses, illegal threats or intimidation, and arson. Results: The meta-analysis included 24 studies of violence perpetration outcomes in 15 countries over 4 decades (N = 51 309 individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders; reported mean age of 21 to 54 years at follow-up; of those studies that reported outcomes separately by sex, there were 19 976 male individuals and 14 275 female individuals). There was an increase in risk of violence perpetration in men with schizophrenia and other psychoses (pooled odds ratio [OR], 4.5; 95% CI, 3.6-5.6) with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 85%; 95% CI, 77-91). The risk was also elevated in women (pooled OR, 10.2; 95% CI, 7.1-14.6), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 66%; 95% CI, 31-83). Odds of perpetrating sexual offenses (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 3.8-6.8) and homicide (OR, 17.7; 95% CI, 13.9-22.6) were also investigated. Three studies found increased relative risks of arson but data were not pooled for this analysis owing to heterogeneity of outcomes. Absolute risks of violence perpetration in register-based studies were less than 1 in 20 in women with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and less than 1 in 4 in men over a 35-year period. Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review and meta-analysis found that the risk of perpetrating violent outcomes was increased in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders compared with community control individuals, which has been confirmed in new population-based longitudinal studies and sibling comparison designs.

Effect of COVID-19 on BPSD severity and caregiver distress: Trend data from national dementia-specific behavior support programs in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Globally, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused a significant disruption to the physical and mental well-being of all individuals, including those living with dementia. Social restrictions and lockdown measures due to COVID-19 have worsened the feelings of loneliness and behaviours and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD). National BPSD support programs in Australia are offered by Dementia Support Australia (DSA) through the Dementia Behavior Management Advisory Service (DBMAS) and the Severe Behavior Response Teams (SBRT). This study aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on BPSD severity and related caregiver distress among referrals to DSA programs. METHODS: A retrospective comparative analysis was conducted on the intake data of referrals to DSA between two periods: Pre-COVID-19 Period (January 2018-Decmeber 2019) and COVID-19 Period (January 2020-July 2021). Referrals were compared on demographic characteristics (e.g., age), and BPSD severity (i.e., neuropsychiatric symptoms such as agitation) and caregiver distress as measured by the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI). NPI scores were compared on a month-to-month basis between the specified periods. RESULTS: Across the two periods, there were a total of 23,180 referrals eligible for the analysis. While no differences were noted in age, sex, or dementia subtype, there were elevated levels of NPI severity and caregiver distress scores during COVID-19 Period compared to the Pre-COVID-19 Period. The month-to-month trends of these differences (Figure 1, Figure 2) reflect the timing of outbreaks across Australia. Specifically, there were no significant differences at the start of 2020 prior to the declaration of the pandemic, with an initial rise in NPI severity and distress through April after initial measures were implemented nationally in March 2020. These levels of severity and distress continued to rise through the remainder of 2020, alongside outbreaks in specific regions within Australia, such as Victoria (June-October), and New South Wales (December/January). NPI severity and caregiver distress then began to return to Pre-COVID levels from February-May before elevating again with the outbreak of the Delta variant in Australia. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 has a significant impact on the severity levels of BPSD and related caregiver distress.

Evaluating the Clinical Impact of National Dementia Behaviour Support Programs on Neuropsychiatric Outcomes in Australia.

Background/Objective: People living with dementia (PLWD) in residential aged care homes (RACHs) are frequently prescribed psychotropic medications due to the high prevalence of neuropsychiatric symptoms, also known as behaviours and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD). However, the gold standard to support BPSD is using psychosocial/non-pharmacological therapies. This study aims to describe and evaluate services and neuropsychiatric outcomes associated with the provision of psychosocial person-centred care interventions delivered by national multidisciplinary dementia-specific behaviour support programs. Methods: A 2-year retrospective pre-post study with a single-arm analysis was conducted on BPSD referrals received from Australian RACHs to the two Dementia Support Australia (DSA) programs, the Dementia Behaviour Management Advisory Service (DBMAS) and the Severe Behaviour Response Teams (SBRT). Neuropsychiatric outcomes were measured using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) total scores and total distress scores. The questionnaire version "NPI-Q" was administered for DBMAS referrals whereas the nursing home version "NPI-NH" was administered for SBRT referrals. Linear mixed effects models were used for analysis, with time, baseline score, age, sex, and case length as predictors. Clinical significance was measured using Cohen's effect size (d; ≥0.3), the mean change score (MCS; 3 points for the NPI-Q and 4 points for the NPI-NH) and the mean percent change (MPC; ≥30%) in NPI parameters. Results: A total of 5,914 referrals (55.9% female, age 82.3 ± 8.6 y) from 1,996 RACHs were eligible for analysis. The most common types of dementia were Alzheimer's disease (37.4%) and vascular dementia (11.7%). The average case length in DSA programs was 57.2 ± 26.3 days. The NPI scores were significantly reduced as a result of DSA programs, independent of covariates. There were significant reductions in total NPI scores as a result of the DBMAS (61.4%) and SBRT (74.3%) programs. For NPI distress scores, there were 66.5% and 69.1% reductions from baseline for the DBMAS and SBRT programs, respectively. All metrics (d, MCS, MPC) were above the threshold set for determining a clinically significant effect. Conclusions: Multimodal psychosocial interventions delivered by DSA programs are clinically effective as demonstrated by positive referral outcomes, such as improved BPSD and related caregiver distress.

Development and external validation of an admission risk prediction model after treatment from early intervention in psychosis services.

Early Intervention in psychosis (EIP) teams are the gold standard treatment for first-episode psychosis (FEP). EIP is time-limited and clinicians are required to make difficult aftercare decisions that require weighing up individuals' wishes for treatment, risk of relapse, and health service capacity. Reliable decision-making tools could assist with appropriate resource allocation and better care. We aimed to develop and externally validate a readmission risk tool for application at the point of EIP discharge. All persons from EIP caseloads in two NHS Trusts were eligible for the study. We excluded those who moved out of the area or were only seen for assessment. We developed a model to predict the risk of hospital admission within a year of ending EIP treatment in one Trust and externally validated it in another. There were n = 831 participants in the development dataset and n = 1393 in the external validation dataset, with 79 (9.5%) and 162 (11.6%) admissions to inpatient hospital, respectively. Discrimination was AUC = 0.76 (95% CI 0.75; 0.77) in the development dataset and AUC = 0.70 (95% CI 0.66; 0.75) in the external dataset. Calibration plots in external validation suggested an underestimation of risk in the lower predicted probabilities and slight overestimation at predicted probabilities in the 0.1-0.2 range (calibration slope = 0.86, 95% CI 0.68; 1.05). Recalibration improved performance at lower predicted probabilities but underestimated risk at the highest range of predicted probabilities (calibration slope = 1.00, 95% CI 0.79; 1.21). We showed that a tool for predicting admission risk using routine data has good performance and could assist clinical decision-making. Refinement of the model, testing its implementation and further external validation are needed.