Early prediction of ventricular peritoneal shunt dependency in aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage patients by recurrent neural network-based machine learning using routine intensive care unit data.

Aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) can lead to complications such as acute hydrocephalic congestion. Treatment of this acute condition often includes establishing an external ventricular drainage (EVD). However, chronic hydrocephalus develops in some patients, who then require placement of a permanent ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt. The aim of this study was to employ recurrent neural network (RNN)-based machine learning techniques to identify patients who require VP shunt placement at an early stage. This retrospective single-centre study included all patients who were diagnosed with aSAH and treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) between November 2010 and May 2020 (n = 602). More than 120 parameters were analysed, including routine neurocritical care data, vital signs and blood gas analyses. Various machine learning techniques, including RNNs and gradient boosting machines, were evaluated for their ability to predict VP shunt dependency. VP-shunt dependency could be predicted using an RNN after just one day of ICU stay, with an AUC-ROC of 0.77 (CI: 0.75-0.79). The accuracy of the prediction improved after four days of observation (Day 4: AUC-ROC 0.81, CI: 0.79-0.84). At that point, the accuracy of the prediction was 76% (CI: 75.98-83.09%), with a sensitivity of 85% (CI: 83-88%) and a specificity of 74% (CI: 71-78%). RNN-based machine learning has the potential to predict VP shunt dependency on Day 4 after ictus in aSAH patients using routine data collected in the ICU. The use of machine learning may allow early identification of patients with specific therapeutic needs and accelerate the execution of required procedures.

A recurrent machine learning model predicts intracranial hypertension in neurointensive care patients.

The evolution of intracranial pressure (ICP) of critically ill patients admitted to a neurointensive care unit (ICU) is difficult to predict. Besides the underlying disease and compromised intracranial space, ICP is affected by a multitude of factors, many of which are monitored on the ICU, but the complexity of the resulting patterns limits their clinical use. This paves the way for new machine learning techniques to assist clinical management of patients undergoing invasive ICP monitoring independent of the underlying disease. An institutional cohort (ICP-ICU) of patients with invasive ICP monitoring (n = 1346) was used to train recurrent machine learning models to predict the occurrence of ICP increases of ≥22 mmHg over a long (>2 h) time period in the upcoming hours. External validation was performed on patients undergoing invasive ICP measurement in two publicly available datasets [Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC, n = 998) and eICU Collaborative Research Database (n = 1634)]. Different distances (1-24 h) between prediction time point and upcoming critical phase were evaluated, demonstrating a decrease in performance but still robust AUC-ROC with larger distances (24 h AUC-ROC: ICP-ICU 0.826 ± 0.0071, MIMIC 0.836 ± 0.0063, eICU 0.779 ± 0.0046, 1 h AUC-ROC: ICP-ICU 0.982 ± 0.0008, MIMIC 0.965 ± 0.0010, eICU 0.941 ± 0.0025). The model operates on sparse hourly data and is stable in handling variable input lengths and missingness through its nature of recurrence and internal memory. Calculation of gradient-based feature importance revealed individual underlying decisions for our long short time memory-based model and thereby provided improved clinical interpretability. Recurrent machine learning models have the potential to be an effective tool for the prediction of ICP increases with high translational potential.