Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks.

The workshop titled "Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks" was co-organized by the Evidence-based Toxicology Collaboration and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and hosted by EFSA at its headquarters in Parma, Italy on October 2 and 3, 2019. The goal was to explore integration of systematic review with mechanistic evidence evaluation. Participants were invited to work on concrete products to advance the exploration of how evidence-based approaches can support the development and application of adverse outcome pathways (AOP) in chemical risk assessment. The workshop discussions were centered around three related themes: 1) assessing certainty in AOPs, 2) literature-based AOP development, and 3) integrating certainty in AOPs and non-animal evidence into decision frameworks. Several challenges, mostly related to methodology, were identified and largely determined the workshop recommendations. The workshop recommendations included the comparison and potential alignment of processes used to develop AOP and systematic review methodology, including the translation of vocabulary of evidence-based methods to AOP and vice versa, the development and improvement of evidence mapping and text mining methods and tools, as well as a call for a fundamental change in chemical risk and uncertainty assessment methodology if to be conducted based on AOPs and new approach methodologies (NAM). The usefulness of evidence-based approaches for mechanism-based chemical risk assessments was stressed, particularly the potential contribution of the rigor and transparency inherent to such approaches in building stakeholders' trust for implementation of NAM evidence and AOPs into chemical risk assessment.

Improving weight of evidence approaches to chemical evaluations.

Federal and other regulatory agencies often use or claim to use a weight of evidence (WoE) approach in chemical evaluation. Their approaches to the use of WoE, however, differ significantly, rely heavily on subjective professional judgment, and merit improvement. We review uses of WoE approaches in key articles in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and find significant variations. We find that a hypothesis-based WoE approach, developed by Lorenz Rhomberg et al., can provide a stronger scientific basis for chemical assessment while improving transparency and preserving the appropriate scope of professional judgment. Their approach, while still evolving, relies on the explicit specification of the hypothesized basis for using the information at hand to infer the ability of an agent to cause human health impacts or, more broadly, affect other endpoints of concern. We describe and endorse such a hypothesis-based WoE approach to chemical evaluation.

In vitro metabolism and bioavailability tests for endocrine active substances: what is needed next for regulatory purposes?

Legislation and prospective legislative proposals internationally (may) require that chemicals be tested for their ability to disrupt the hormonal systems of mammals. Chemicals found to test positive in vitro are considered to be endocrine active substances (EAS) and may be putative endocrine disruptors (EDs) in vivo. While there is a growing body of international in vitro test guidelines addressing EAS mechanisms and modes of action, to date there are still few or no standardized methods to incorporate metabolic and toxicokinetic aspects into these in vitro tests for EAS. In vitro assays for EAS should incorporate metabolic enzyme systems to better address the relevance of EAS tests to in vivo adverse outcome pathways, and a previous OECD review paper indicated how this could be done. This paper revisits those recommendations, addressing where research and funding efforts are needed to expedite the development of suitable in vitro metabolism systems to improve the accuracy of in vitro assays for identifying EAS and EDs. Recommendations are made for projects to support short, medium, and long-term goals. The complexity of in vivo metabolism presents major challenges for the development of predictive models suitable for the extrapolation of data from in silico/in vitro approaches to models that can occur in vivo. Therefore, the long-term recommendations are intended to foster an international harmonization of databases, delineation of metabolic pathways, and development of predictive tools that will provide a fundamental understanding of the processes by which metabolism occurs, increasing the predictive accuracy of in silico/in vitro methods.

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.