Cost-Effectiveness of a Risk-Tailored Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection Strategy Among Patients With New-Onset Diabetes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in asymptomatic adults is not recommended, however, patients with new-onset diabetes (NoD) have an 8 times higher risk of PDAC than expected. A novel risk-tailored early detection strategy targeting high-risk NoD patients might improve PDAC prognosis. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of this strategy. METHODS: We compared PDAC early detection strategies targeting NoD individuals age 50 years and older at various minimal predicted PDAC risk thresholds vs standard of care in a Markov state-transition decision model under the health care sector perspective using a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the early detection strategy targeting patients with a minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1% was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $116,911). At a WTP threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the early detection strategy at the 2% risk threshold was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $63,045). The proportion of PDACs detected at local stage, costs of treatment for metastatic PDAC, utilities of local and regional cancers, and sensitivity of screening were the most influential parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed that at a WTP threshold of $150,000, early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold was favored (30.6%), followed by the 0.5% risk threshold (20.4%) vs standard of care (1.7%). At a WTP threshold of $100,000, early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold was favored (27.3%) followed by the 2.0% risk threshold (22.8%) vs standard of care (2.0%). CONCLUSIONS: A risk-tailored PDAC early detection strategy targeting NoD patients with a minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1.0% to 2.0% may be cost effective.

Could EEG Monitoring in Critically Ill Children Be a Cost-effective Neuroprotective Strategy?

PURPOSE: Electrographic status epilepticus (ESE) in critically ill children is associated with unfavorable functional outcomes, but identifying candidates for ESE management requires resource-intense EEG monitoring. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to estimate how much ESE identification and management would need to improve patient outcomes to make EEG monitoring strategies a good value. METHODS: A decision tree was created to examine the relationships among variables important to deciding whether to perform EEG monitoring. Variable costs were estimated from their component parts, outcomes were estimated in quality-adjusted life-years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated to compare the relative values using four alternative EEG monitoring strategies that varied by monitoring duration. RESULTS: Forty-eight hours of EEG monitoring would be worth its cost if ESE identification and management improved patient outcomes by ≥7%. If ESE identification and management improved patient outcomes by 3% to 6%, then 24 or 48 hours of EEG monitoring would be worth the cost depending on how much decision makers were willing to pay per quality-adjusted life-year gained. If ESE identification and management improved outcomes by as little as 3%, then 24 hours of EEG monitoring would be worth the cost. CONCLUSIONS: EEG monitoring has the potential to be cost-effective if ESE identification and management improves patient outcomes by as little as 3%.

How much does it cost to identify a critically ill child experiencing electrographic seizures?

OBJECTIVES: Electrographic seizures in critically ill children may be identified by continuous EEG monitoring. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of 4 electrographic seizure identification strategies (no EEG monitoring and EEG monitoring for 1 hour, 24 hours, or 48 hours). METHODS: We created a decision tree to model the relationships among variables from a societal perspective. To provide input for the model, we estimated variable costs directly related to EEG monitoring from their component parts, and we reviewed the literature to estimate the probabilities of outcomes. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to identify the trade-off between cost and effectiveness at different willingness-to-pay values. RESULTS: Our analysis found that the preferred strategy was EEG monitoring for 1 hour, 24 hours, and 48 hours if the decision maker was willing to pay <$1,666, $1,666-$22,648, and >$22,648 per critically ill child identified with electrographic seizures, respectively. The 48-hour strategy only identified 4% more children with electrographic seizures at substantially higher cost. Sensitivity analyses found that all 3 strategies were acceptable at lower willingness-to-pay values when children with higher electrographic seizure risk were monitored. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study support monitoring of critically ill children for 24 hours because the cost to identify a critically ill child with electrographic seizures is modest. Further study is needed to predict better which children may benefit from 48 hours of EEG monitoring because the costs are much higher.

Diagnosis of stable ischemic heart disease: summary of a clinical practice guideline from the American College of Physicians/American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association/American Association for Thoracic Surgery/Preventive Cardiovascular Nurses Association/Society of Thoracic Surgeons.

DESCRIPTION: The American College of Physicians (ACP) developed this guideline in collaboration with the American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF), American Heart Association (AHA), American Association for Thoracic Surgery, Preventive Cardiovascular Nurses Association, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons to help clinicians diagnose known or suspected stable ischemic heart disease. METHODS: Literature on this topic published before November 2011 was identified by using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL, PsychINFO, AMED, and SCOPUS. Searches were limited to human studies published in English. This guideline grades the evidence and recommendations according to a translation of the ACCF/AHA grading system into ACP's clinical practice guidelines grading system. RECOMMENDATIONS: This guideline includes 28 recommendations that address the following issues: the initial diagnosis of the patient who might have stable ischemic heart disease, cardiac stress testing to assess the risk for death or myocardial infarction in patients diagnosed with stable ischemic heart disease, and coronary angiography for risk assessment.

Management of stable ischemic heart disease: summary of a clinical practice guideline from the American College of Physicians/American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association/American Association for Thoracic Surgery/Preventive Cardiovascular Nurses Association/Society of Thoracic Surgeons.

DESCRIPTION: The American College of Physicians (ACP) developed this guideline with the American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF), American Heart Association (AHA), American Association for Thoracic Surgery, Preventive Cardiovascular Nurses Association, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons to present the available evidence on the management of stable known or suspected ischemic heart disease. METHODS: Literature on this topic published before November 2011 was identified by using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL, PsychINFO, AMED, and SCOPUS. Searches were limited to human studies published in English. This guideline grades the evidence and recommendations according to a translation of the ACCF/AHA grading system into ACP's clinical practice guidelines grading system. RECOMMENDATIONS: The guideline includes 48 specific recommendations that address the following issues: patient education, management of proven risk factors (dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, physical activity body weight, and smoking), risk factor reduction strategies of unproven benefit, medical therapy to prevent myocardial infarction and death and to relieve symptoms, alternative therapy, revascularization to improve survival and symptoms, and patient follow-up.

In the clinic. Preoperative evaluation.

The content of In the Clinic is drawn from the clinical information and education resources of the American College of Physicians (ACP), including PIER (Physicians' Information and Education Resource) and MKSAP (Medical Knowledge and Self Assessment Program). Annals of Internal Medicine editors develop In the Clinic from these primary sources in collaboration with the ACP's Medical Education and Publishing division and with assistance of science writers and physician writers. Editorial consultants from PIER and MKSAP provide expert review of the content. Readers who are interested in these primary resources for more detail can consult www.acponline.org, http://pier.acponline.org, and other resources referenced within each issue of In the Clinic. The information contained herein should never be used as a substitute for clinical judgment. CME OBJECTIVE: To review strategies to evaluate and reduce perioperative risk.

Screening mammography in women 40 to 49 years of age: a systematic review for the American College of Physicians.

BACKGROUND: The risks and benefits of mammography screening among women 40 to 49 years of age remain an important issue for clinical practice. PURPOSE: To evaluate the evidence about the risks and benefits of mammography screening for women 40 to 49 years of age. DATA SOURCES: English-language publications in MEDLINE (1966-2005), Pre-MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and references of selected studies through May 2005. STUDY SELECTION: Previous systematic reviews; randomized, controlled trials; and observational studies. DATA EXTRACTION: Two independent reviewers. DATA SYNTHESIS: In addition to publications from the original mammography trials, 117 studies were included in the review. Meta-analyses of randomized, controlled trials demonstrate a 7% to 23% reduction in breast cancer mortality rates with screening mammography in women 40 to 49 years of age. Screening mammography is associated with an increased risk for mastectomy but a decreased risk for adjuvant chemotherapy and hormone therapy. The risk for death due to breast cancer from the radiation exposure involved in mammography screening is small and is outweighed by a reduction in breast cancer mortality rates from early detection. Rates of false-positive results are high (20% to 56% after 10 mammograms), but false-positive results have little effect on psychological health or subsequent mammography adherence. Although many women report pain at the time of the mammography, few see pain as a deterrent to future screening. Evidence about the effect of negative screening mammography on psychological well-being or the subsequent clinical presentation of breast cancer is insufficient. LIMITATIONS: Few randomized, controlled trials assessed the risks of screening, and the literature search was completed in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Although few women 50 years of age or older have risks from mammography that outweigh the benefits, the evidence suggests that more women 40 to 49 years of age have such risks.

A physicians' agenda for partnering with employers and insurers: fresh ideas.

We report the results of the second phase of a multiphase qualitative investigation of the ways physicians, employers, and insurers can work together more effectively to provide better ambulatory care to employees and their dependents. This article focuses on ways physicians can develop more useful relationships among these groups. We used a grounded theory approach to conduct 71 interviews from August 12, 2004, to December 27, 2005, with 25 practicing physicians in large and small groups, urban and rural areas, private and academic settings, and primary care and specialty practices; 33 hospital administrators, medical association executives, health insurance medical officers, and health policy analysts; and 13 senior executives of large and small companies. The study identifies 2 approaches to the structuring of ambulatory care that can lead to improved health care outcomes and value. In the first approach, direct contracting between physicians and employers transfers tasks previously performed by insurers to employers or other intermediaries who may be able to provide better service or lower cost. In the second approach, insurer-mediated relationships between physicians and employers are restructured, particularly in ways that improve information flow. Such relationships may strengthen physicians' ability to provide quality services while enabling patients to make more informed decisions about physician selection, treatments, and spending. We believe that broader use of these approaches may improve the quality and efficiency of ambulatory care for the large proportion of the population that has work-related health insurance. Although the findings are promising, our intent is not to claim broad external validity but rather to encourage greater experience with these approaches and more formal studies of their effectiveness.

The effect of market reform on racial differences in hospital mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether racial differences in hospital mortality worsened after implementation of a New Jersey law in 1993 that reduced subsidies for uninsured hospital care and changed hospital payment from rate regulation to price competition. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: State discharge data for New Jersey and New York from 1990 to 1996. STUDY DESIGN: We used an interrupted time series design to compare risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates between states over time. Adjusting for patient characteristics, baseline interstate differences, and common intertemporal trends, we compared the effect sizes for whites and blacks in the following 4 groups: overall, uninsured, insured under age 65, and Medicare patients. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: The study sample included 1,357,394 patients admitted to New Jersey or New York hospitals between 1990 to 1996 with stroke, hip fracture, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, congestive heart failure, or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The increase in mortality in New Jersey versus New York was significantly larger among blacks than among whites for AMI (2.4% points vs 0.1% points, P-value for difference .026) but not for the other 6 conditions. In groupings of conditions for which hospital admission is non-discretionary and conditions in which admission is discretionary, we found qualitatively larger increases in mortality for blacks but no statistically significant racial differences among patients overall, uninsured patients, insured patients under age 65, or Medicare patients. CONCLUSIONS: Market-based reform and reductions in subsidies for hospital care for the uninsured in New Jersey were associated with worsening racial disparities in in-hospital mortality for AMI but not for 6 other common conditions.