Novel multi-cluster workflow system to support real-time HPC-enabled epidemic science: Investigating the impact of vaccine acceptance on COVID-19 spread.

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of "what-if" scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. The meta-scheduler optimizes the total execution time of simulations in the workflow, and helps improve overall human productivity. As an exemplar of the kind of studies that can be conducted using Mackenzie, we present a modeling study to understand the impact of vaccine-acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US. We use a 288 million node synthetic social contact network (digital twin) spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based model used for the epidemic simulations uses realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Computational experiments show that, for the simulation workload discussed above, MacKenzie is able to scale up well to 10K CPU cores. Our modeling results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K across the US. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. We also find that if vaccine acceptance could be increased by 10% in all states, averted infections could be increased from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total averted deaths could be increased from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% improvement) nationwide.

Data-driven mechanistic framework with stratified immunity and effective transmissibility for COVID-19 scenario projections.

Scenario-based modeling frameworks have been widely used to support policy-making at state and federal levels in the United States during the COVID-19 response. While custom-built models can be used to support one-off studies, sustained updates to projections under changing pandemic conditions requires a robust, integrated, and adaptive framework. In this paper, we describe one such framework, UVA-adaptive, that was built to support the CDC-aligned Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) across multiple rounds, as well as weekly/biweekly projections to Virginia Department of Health (VDH) and US Department of Defense during the COVID-19 response. Building upon an existing metapopulation framework, PatchSim, UVA-adaptive uses a calibration mechanism relying on adjustable effective transmissibility as a basis for scenario definition while also incorporating real-time datasets on case incidence, seroprevalence, variant characteristics, and vaccine uptake. Through the pandemic, our framework evolved by incorporating available data sources and was extended to capture complexities of multiple strains and heterogeneous immunity of the population. Here we present the version of the model that was used for the recent projections for SMH and VDH, describe the calibration and projection framework, and demonstrate that the calibrated transmissibility correlates with the evolution of the pathogen as well as associated societal dynamics.

Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics.

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.

Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support.

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of (i) an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; (ii) a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; (iii) a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; (iv) an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions. This pipeline can run 400 replicates of national runs in less than 33 h, and reduces the need for human intervention, resulting in faster turnaround times and higher reliability and accuracy of the results. Scientifically, the work has led to significant advances in real-time epidemic sciences.

From 5Vs to 6Cs: Operationalizing Epidemic Data Management with COVID-19 Surveillance.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the forefront an unprecedented need for experts, as well as citizens, to visualize spatio-temporal disease surveillance data. Web application dashboards were quickly developed to fill this gap, including those built by JHU, WHO, and CDC, but all of these dashboards supported a particular niche view of the pandemic (ie, current status or specific regions). In this paper, we describe our work developing our own COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard, available at https://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/, which offers a universal view of the pandemic while also allowing users to focus on the details that interest them. From the beginning, our goal was to provide a simple visual way to compare, organize, and track near-real-time surveillance data as the pandemic progresses. Our dashboard includes a number of advanced features for zooming, filtering, categorizing and visualizing multiple time series on a single canvas. In developing this dashboard, we have also identified 6 key metrics we call the 6Cs standard which we propose as a standard for the design and evaluation of real-time epidemic science dashboards. Our dashboard was one of the first released to the public, and remains one of the most visited and highly used. Our group uses it to support federal, state and local public health authorities, and it is used by people worldwide to track the pandemic evolution, build their own dashboards, and support their organizations as they plan their responses to the pandemic. We illustrate the utility of our dashboard by describing how it can be used to support data story-telling - an important emerging area in data science.

Evaluating the impact of international airline suspensions on the early global spread of COVID-19.

Global airline networks play a key role in the global importation of emerging infectious diseases. Detailed information on air traffic between international airports has been demonstrated to be useful in retrospectively validating and prospectively predicting case emergence in other countries. In this paper, we use a well-established metric known as effective distance on the global air traffic data from IATA to quantify risk of emergence for different countries as a consequence of direct importation from China, and compare it against arrival times for the first 24 countries. Using this model trained on official first reports from WHO, we estimate time of arrival (ToA) for all other countries. We then incorporate data on airline suspensions to recompute the effective distance and assess the effect of such cancellations in delaying the estimated arrival time for all other countries. Finally we use the infectious disease vulnerability indices to explain some of the estimated reporting delays.

EpiViewer: an epidemiological application for exploring time series data.

BACKGROUND: Visualization plays an important role in epidemic time series analysis and forecasting. Viewing time series data plotted on a graph can help researchers identify anomalies and unexpected trends that could be overlooked if the data were reviewed in tabular form; these details can influence a researcher's recommended course of action or choice of simulation models. However, there are challenges in reviewing data sets from multiple data sources - data can be aggregated in different ways (e.g., incidence vs. cumulative), measure different criteria (e.g., infection counts, hospitalizations, and deaths), or represent different geographical scales (e.g., nation, HHS Regions, or states), which can make a direct comparison between time series difficult. In the face of an emerging epidemic, the ability to visualize time series from various sources and organizations and to reconcile these datasets based on different criteria could be key in developing accurate forecasts and identifying effective interventions. Many tools have been developed for visualizing temporal data; however, none yet supports all the functionality needed for easy collaborative visualization and analysis of epidemic data. RESULTS: In this paper, we present EpiViewer, a time series exploration dashboard where users can upload epidemiological time series data from a variety of sources and compare, organize, and track how data evolves as an epidemic progresses. EpiViewer provides an easy-to-use web interface for visualizing temporal datasets either as line charts or bar charts. The application provides enhanced features for visual analysis, such as hierarchical categorization, zooming, and filtering, to enable detailed inspection and comparison of multiple time series on a single canvas. Finally, EpiViewer provides several built-in statistical Epi-features to help users interpret the epidemiological curves. CONCLUSION: EpiViewer is a single page web application that provides a framework for exploring, comparing, and organizing temporal datasets. It offers a variety of features for convenient filtering and analysis of epicurves based on meta-attribute tagging. EpiViewer also provides a platform for sharing data between groups for better comparison and analysis. Our user study demonstrated that EpiViewer is easy to use and fills a particular niche in the toolspace for visualization and exploration of epidemiological data.

Disparities in spread and control of influenza in slums of Delhi: findings from an agent-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: This research studies the role of slums in the spread and control of infectious diseases in the National Capital Territory of India, Delhi, using detailed social contact networks of its residents. METHODS: We use an agent-based model to study the spread of influenza in Delhi through person-to-person contact. Two different networks are used: one in which slum and non-slum regions are treated the same, and the other in which 298 slum zones are identified. In the second network, slum-specific demographics and activities are assigned to the individuals whose homes reside inside these zones. The main effects of integrating slums are that the network has more home-related contacts due to larger family sizes and more outside contacts due to more daily activities outside home. Various vaccination and social distancing interventions are applied to control the spread of influenza. RESULTS: Simulation-based results show that when slum attributes are ignored, the effectiveness of vaccination can be overestimated by 30%-55%, in terms of reducing the peak number of infections and the size of the epidemic, and in delaying the time to peak infection. The slum population sustains greater infection rates under all intervention scenarios in the network that treats slums differently. Vaccination strategy performs better than social distancing strategies in slums. CONCLUSIONS: Unique characteristics of slums play a significant role in the spread of infectious diseases. Modelling slums and estimating their impact on epidemics will help policy makers and regulators more accurately prioritise allocation of scarce medical resources and implement public health policies.

Combining Participatory Influenza Surveillance with Modeling and Forecasting: Three Alternative Approaches.

BACKGROUND: Influenza outbreaks affect millions of people every year and its surveillance is usually carried out in developed countries through a network of sentinel doctors who report the weekly number of Influenza-like Illness cases observed among the visited patients. Monitoring and forecasting the evolution of these outbreaks supports decision makers in designing effective interventions and allocating resources to mitigate their impact. OBJECTIVE: Describe the existing participatory surveillance approaches that have been used for modeling and forecasting of the seasonal influenza epidemic, and how they can help strengthen real-time epidemic science and provide a more rigorous understanding of epidemic conditions. METHODS: We describe three different participatory surveillance systems, WISDM (Widely Internet Sourced Distributed Monitoring), Influenzanet and Flu Near You (FNY), and show how modeling and simulation can be or has been combined with participatory disease surveillance to: i) measure the non-response bias in a participatory surveillance sample using WISDM; and ii) nowcast and forecast influenza activity in different parts of the world (using Influenzanet and Flu Near You). RESULTS: WISDM-based results measure the participatory and sample bias for three epidemic metrics i.e. attack rate, peak infection rate, and time-to-peak, and find the participatory bias to be the largest component of the total bias. The Influenzanet platform shows that digital participatory surveillance data combined with a realistic data-driven epidemiological model can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of epidemic intensities, and the ground truth data lie within the 95 percent confidence intervals for most weeks. The statistical accuracy of the ensemble forecasts increase as the season progresses. The Flu Near You platform shows that participatory surveillance data provide accurate short-term flu activity forecasts and influenza activity predictions. The correlation of the HealthMap Flu Trends estimates with the observed CDC ILI rates is 0.99 for 2013-2015. Additional data sources lead to an error reduction of about 40% when compared to the estimates of the model that only incorporates CDC historical information. CONCLUSIONS: While the advantages of participatory surveillance, compared to traditional surveillance, include its timeliness, lower costs, and broader reach, it is limited by a lack of control over the characteristics of the population sample. Modeling and simulation can help overcome this limitation as well as provide real-time and long-term forecasting of influenza activity in data-poor parts of the world.

GenoCAD Plant Grammar to Design Plant Expression Vectors for Promoter Analysis.

With the rapid advances in prediction tools for discovery of new promoters and their cis-elements, there is a need to improve plant expression methodologies in order to facilitate a high-throughput functional validation of these promoters in planta. The promoter-reporter analysis is an indispensible approach for characterization of plant promoters. It requires the design of complex plant expression vectors, which can be challenging. Here, we describe the use of a plant grammar implemented in GenoCAD that will allow the users to quickly design constructs for promoter analysis experiments but also for other in planta functional studies. The GenoCAD plant grammar includes a library of plant biological parts organized in structural categories to facilitate their use and management and a set of rules that guides the process of assembling these biological parts into large constructs.

Rule-Based Design of Plant Expression Vectors Using GenoCAD.

Plant synthetic biology requires software tools to assist on the design of complex multi-genic expression plasmids. Here a vector design strategy to express genes in plants is formalized and implemented as a grammar in GenoCAD, a Computer-Aided Design software for synthetic biology. It includes a library of plant biological parts organized in structural categories and a set of rules describing how to assemble these parts into large constructs. Rules developed here are organized and divided into three main subsections according to the aim of the final construct: protein localization studies, promoter analysis and protein-protein interaction experiments. The GenoCAD plant grammar guides the user through the design while allowing users to customize vectors according to their needs. Therefore the plant grammar implemented in GenoCAD will help plant biologists take advantage of methods from synthetic biology to design expression vectors supporting their research projects.

GenoLIB: a database of biological parts derived from a library of common plasmid features.

Synthetic biologists rely on databases of biological parts to design genetic devices and systems. The sequences and descriptions of genetic parts are often derived from features of previously described plasmids using ad hoc, error-prone and time-consuming curation processes because existing databases of plasmids and features are loosely organized. These databases often lack consistency in the way they identify and describe sequences. Furthermore, legacy bioinformatics file formats like GenBank do not provide enough information about the purpose of features. We have analyzed the annotations of a library of ∼2000 widely used plasmids to build a non-redundant database of plasmid features. We looked at the variability of plasmid features, their usage statistics and their distributions by feature type. We segmented the plasmid features by expression hosts. We derived a library of biological parts from the database of plasmid features. The library was formatted using the Synthetic Biology Open Language, an emerging standard developed to better organize libraries of genetic parts to facilitate synthetic biology workflows. As proof, the library was converted into GenoCAD grammar files to allow users to import and customize the library based on the needs of their research projects.

The Synthetic Biology Open Language (SBOL) provides a community standard for communicating designs in synthetic biology.

The re-use of previously validated designs is critical to the evolution of synthetic biology from a research discipline to an engineering practice. Here we describe the Synthetic Biology Open Language (SBOL), a proposed data standard for exchanging designs within the synthetic biology community. SBOL represents synthetic biology designs in a community-driven, formalized format for exchange between software tools, research groups and commercial service providers. The SBOL Developers Group has implemented SBOL as an XML/RDF serialization and provides software libraries and specification documentation to help developers implement SBOL in their own software. We describe early successes, including a demonstration of the utility of SBOL for information exchange between several different software tools and repositories from both academic and industrial partners. As a community-driven standard, SBOL will be updated as synthetic biology evolves to provide specific capabilities for different aspects of the synthetic biology workflow.

Development of a domain-specific genetic language to design Chlamydomonas reinhardtii expression vectors.

MOTIVATION: Expression vectors used in different biotechnology applications are designed with domain-specific rules. For instance, promoters, origins of replication or homologous recombination sites are host-specific. Similarly, chromosomal integration or viral delivery of an expression cassette imposes specific structural constraints. As de novo gene synthesis and synthetic biology methods permeate many biotechnology specialties, the design of application-specific expression vectors becomes the new norm. In this context, it is desirable to formalize vector design strategies applicable in different domains. RESULTS: Using the design of constructs to express genes in the chloroplast of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as an example, we show that a vector design strategy can be formalized as a domain-specific language. We have developed a graphical editor of context-free grammars usable by biologists without prior exposure to language theory. This environment makes it possible for biologists to iteratively improve their design strategies throughout the course of a project. It is also possible to ensure that vectors designed with early iterations of the language are consistent with the latest iteration of the language. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The context-free grammar editor is part of the GenoCAD application. A public instance of GenoCAD is available at http://www.genocad.org. GenoCAD source code is available from SourceForge and licensed under the Apache v2.0 open source license.

Sequence verification of synthetic DNA by assembly of sequencing reads.

Gene synthesis attempts to assemble user-defined DNA sequences with base-level precision. Verifying the sequences of construction intermediates and the final product of a gene synthesis project is a critical part of the workflow, yet one that has received the least attention. Sequence validation is equally important for other kinds of curated clone collections. Ensuring that the physical sequence of a clone matches its published sequence is a common quality control step performed at least once over the course of a research project. GenoREAD is a web-based application that breaks the sequence verification process into two steps: the assembly of sequencing reads and the alignment of the resulting contig with a reference sequence. GenoREAD can determine if a clone matches its reference sequence. Its sophisticated reporting features help identify and troubleshoot problems that arise during the sequence verification process. GenoREAD has been experimentally validated on thousands of gene-sized constructs from an ORFeome project, and on longer sequences including whole plasmids and synthetic chromosomes. Comparing GenoREAD results with those from manual analysis of the sequencing data demonstrates that GenoREAD tends to be conservative in its diagnostic. GenoREAD is available at www.genoread.org.

A step-by-step introduction to rule-based design of synthetic genetic constructs using GenoCAD.

GenoCAD is an open source web-based system that provides a streamlined, rule-driven process for designing genetic sequences. GenoCAD provides a graphical interface that allows users to design sequences consistent with formalized design strategies specific to a domain, organization, or project. Design strategies include limited sets of user-defined parts and rules indicating how these parts are to be combined in genetic constructs. In addition to reducing design time to minutes, GenoCAD improves the quality and reliability of the finished sequence by ensuring that the designs follow established rules of sequence construction. GenoCAD.org is a publicly available instance of GenoCAD that can be found at www.genocad.org. The source code and latest build are available from SourceForge to allow advanced users to install and customize GenoCAD for their unique needs. This chapter focuses primarily on how the GenoCAD tools can be used to organize genetic parts into customized personal libraries, then how these libraries can be used to design sequences. In addition, GenoCAD's parts management system and search capabilities are described in detail. Instructions are provided for installing a local instance of GenoCAD on a server. Some of the future enhancements of this rapidly evolving suite of applications are briefly described.

GenoCAD for iGEM: a grammatical approach to the design of standard-compliant constructs.

One of the foundations of synthetic biology is the project to develop libraries of standardized genetic parts that could be assembled quickly and cheaply into large systems. The limitations of the initial BioBrick standard have prompted the development of multiple new standards proposing different avenues to overcome these shortcomings. The lack of compatibility between standards, the compliance of parts with only some of the standards or even the type of constructs that each standard supports have significantly increased the complexity of assembling constructs from standardized parts. Here, we describe computer tools to facilitate the rigorous description of part compositions in the context of a rapidly changing landscape of physical construction methods and standards. A context-free grammar has been developed to model the structure of constructs compliant with six popular assembly standards. Its implementation in GenoCAD makes it possible for users to quickly assemble from a rich library of genetic parts, constructs compliant with any of six existing standards.