Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) ad hoc meeting, 28 June - 1 July 2024.

The World Health Organization's Immunization and Vaccines-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC) serves to independently review and evaluate vaccine-related research to maximize the potential impact of vaccination programs. From 28 June - 1 July 2024, IVIR-AC was convened for an ad hoc meeting to discuss new evidence on criteria for rubella vaccine introduction and the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. This report summarizes background information on rubella virus transmission and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome, meeting structure and presentations, proceedings, and recommendations.

Challenges and Approaches to Establishing Multi-Pathogen Serosurveillance: Findings from the 2023 Serosurveillance Summit.

Multiplex-based serological surveillance is a valuable but underutilized tool to understand gaps in population-level exposure, susceptibility, and immunity to infectious diseases. Assays for which blood samples can be tested for antibodies against several pathogens simultaneously, such as multiplex bead immunoassays, can more efficiently integrate public health surveillance in low- and middle-income countries. On March 7-8, 2023 a group of experts representing research institutions, multilateral organizations, private industry, and country partners met to discuss experiences, identify challenges and solutions, and create a community of practice for integrated, multi-pathogen serosurveillance using multiplex bead assay technologies. Participants were divided into six working groups: 1) supply chain; 2) laboratory assays; 3) seroepidemiology; 4) data analytics; 5) sustainable implementation; and 6) use case scenarios. These working groups discussed experiences, challenges, solutions, and research needs to facilitate integrated, multi-pathogen serosurveillance for public health. Several solutions were proposed to address challenges that cut across working groups.

Adjusting mobile phone data to account for children's travel and the impact on measles dynamics in Zambia.

Models of measles transmission can be used to identify areas of high risk to tailor immunization strategies. Estimates of spatial connectivity can be derived from data such as mobile phone records, however it is not clear how this maps to the movement of children who are more likely to be infected. Using travel surveys across two districts in Zambia and national mobile phone data, we compared estimates of out-of-district travel for the population captured in the mobile phone data and child-specific travel from travel surveys. We then evaluated the impact of unadjusted and adjusted connectivity measures on simulated measles virus introduction events across Zambia. The number of trips made by children from the travel survey was three to five times lower than the general population estimates from mobile phone data. This decreased the percentage of districts with measles virus introduction events from 78% when using unadjusted data to 51% - 64% following adjustment. Failure to account for age-specific heterogeneities in travel estimated from mobile phone data resulted in overestimating subnational areas at high risk of introduction events, which could divert mitigation efforts to districts that are at lower risk.

Possible Paths to Measles Eradication: Conceptual Frameworks, Strategies, and Tactics.

Measles elimination refers to the interruption of measles virus transmission in a defined geographic area (e.g., country or region) for 12 months or more, and measles eradication refers to the global interruption of measles virus transmission. Measles eradication was first discussed and debated in the late 1960's shortly after the licensure of measles vaccines. Most experts agree that measles meets criteria for disease eradication, but progress toward national and regional measles elimination has slowed. Several paths to measles eradication can be described, including an incremental path through country-wide and regional measles elimination and phased paths through endgame scenarios and strategies. Infectious disease dynamic modeling can help inform measles elimination and eradication strategies, and all paths would be greatly facilitated by innovative technologies such as microarray patches to improve vaccine access and demand, point-of-contact diagnostic tests to facilitate outbreak responses, and point-of-contact IgG tests to identify susceptible populations. A pragmatic approach to measles eradication would identify and realize the necessary preconditions and clearly articulate various endgame scenarios and strategies to achieve measles eradication with an intensified and coordinated global effort in a specified timeframe, i.e., to "go big and go fast". To encourage and promote deliberation among a broad array of stakeholders, we provide a brief historical background and key considerations for setting a measles eradication goal.

Rubella immunity among pregnant women and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in India, 2022.

BACKGROUND: India aims to eliminate rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) by 2023. We conducted serosurveys among pregnant women to monitor the trend of rubella immunity and estimate the CRS burden in India following a nationwide measles and rubella vaccination campaign. METHODS: We surveyed pregnant women at 13 sentinel sites across India from Aug to Oct 2022 to estimate seroprevalence of rubella IgG antibodies. Using age-specific seroprevalence data from serosurveys conducted during 2017/2019 (prior to and during the vaccination campaign) and 2022 surveys (after the vaccination campaign), we developed force of infection (FOI) models and estimated incidence and burden of CRS. RESULTS: In 2022, rubella seroprevalence was 85.2% (95% CI: 84.0, 86.2). Among 10 sites which participated in both rounds of serosurveys, the seroprevalence was not different between the two periods (pooled prevalence during 2017/2019: 83.5%, 95% CI: 82.1, 84.8; prevalence during 2022: 85.1%, 95% CI: 83.8, 86.3). The estimated annual incidence of CRS during 2017/2019 in India was 218.3 (95% CI: 209.7, 226.5) per 100, 000 livebirths, resulting in 47,120 (95% CI: 45,260, 48,875) cases of CRS every year. After measles-rubella (MR) vaccination campaign, the estimated incidence of CRS declined to 5.3 (95% CI: 0, 21.2) per 100,000 livebirths, resulting in 1141 (95% CI: 0, 4,569) cases of CRS during the post MR-vaccination campaign period. CONCLUSION: The incidence of CRS in India has substantially decreased following the nationwide MR vaccination campaign. About 15% of women in childbearing age in India lack immunity to rubella and hence susceptible to rubella infection. Since there are no routine rubella vaccination opportunities for this age group under the national immunization program, it is imperative to maintain high rates of rubella vaccination among children to prevent rubella virus exposure among women of childbearing age susceptible for rubella.

Feasibility and acceptability of collecting dried blood spots (DBS) from children after vaccination during supplementary immunization activities to estimate measles and rubella seroprevalence.

Nested serosurveys within routine service delivery platforms such as planned supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) provide an opportunity to collect information that can be used to answer valuable questions on the effectiveness and efficiency of the delivery model to inform future activities. However, integrating research data collection in SIAs is rarely done due to concerns it will negatively impact the program. We conducted a serosurvey nested within the November 2020 measles-rubella SIA integrated with the Child Health Week activities in Zambia to evaluate this approach. In-depth interviews with the study teams and vaccination campaign staff at the vaccination sites were conducted. Recorded interviews were transcribed, transcripts were coded and then grouped into themes based on a process evaluation framework. A multi-methods analytical approach was used to assess the feasibility and acceptability of collecting dried blood spots from children during the SIA. This included a quantitative assessment of participant enrollment. The serosurvey successfully enrolled 90% of children from Child Health Week due to close coordination and teamwork between the vaccination teams and serosurvey team, in addition to substantial social mobilization efforts. Continually adjusting the sampling interval that was used to select eligible children allowed us to enroll throughout the SIA and capture a representative sample of children in attendance although it was challenging for the staff involved. As vaccination programs aim to tailor their approaches to reach the hardest-to-reach children, embedding research questions in SIAs will allow evaluation of the successes and challenges and compare alternative approaches. Lessons learned from this experience collecting data during an SIA can be applicable to future research activities embedded in SIAs or other delivery platforms.

Modeling the Cost of Vaccinating a Measles Zero-Dose Child in Zambia Using Three Vaccination Strategies.

Countries with moderate to high measles-containing vaccine coverage face challenges in reaching the remaining measles zero-dose children. There is growing interest in targeted vaccination activities to reach these children. We developed a framework for prioritizing districts for targeted measles and rubella supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) for Zambia in 2020, incorporating the use of the WHO's Measles Risk Assessment Tool (MRAT) and serosurveys. This framework was used to build a model comparing the cost of vaccinating one zero-dose child under three vaccination scenarios: standard nationwide SIA, targeted subnational SIA informed by MRAT, and targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and measles seroprevalence data. In the last scenario, measles seroprevalence data are acquired via either a community-based serosurvey, residual blood samples from health facilities, or community-based IgG point-of-contact rapid diagnostic testing. The deterministic model found that the standard nationwide SIA is the least cost-efficient strategy at 13.75 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated. Targeted SIA informed by MRAT was the most cost-efficient at 7.63 USD per zero-dose child, assuming that routine immunization is just as effective as subnational SIA in reaching zero-dose children. Under similar conditions, a targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and seroprevalence data resulted in 8.17-8.35 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated, suggesting that use of seroprevalence to inform SIA planning may not be as cost prohibitive as previously thought. Further refinement to the decision framework incorporating additional data may yield strategies to better target the zero-dose population in a financially feasible manner.

Who is missed in a community-based survey: Assessment and implications of biases due to incomplete sampling frame in a community-based serosurvey, Choma and Ndola Districts, Zambia, 2022.

Community-based serological studies are increasingly relied upon to measure disease burden, identify population immunity gaps, and guide control and elimination strategies; however, there is little understanding of the potential for and impact of sampling biases on outcomes of interest. As part of efforts to quantify measles immunity gaps in Zambia, a community-based serological survey using stratified multi-stage cluster sampling approach was conducted in Ndola and Choma districts in May-June 2022, enrolling 1245 individuals. We carried out a follow-up study among individuals missed from the sampling frame of the serosurvey in July-August 2022, enrolling 672 individuals. We assessed the potential for and impact of biases in the community-based serosurvey by i) estimating differences in characteristics of households and individuals included and excluded (77% vs 23% of households) from the sampling frame of the serosurvey and ii) evaluating the magnitude these differences make on healthcare-seeking behavior, vaccination coverage, and measles seroprevalence. We found that missed households were 20% smaller and 25% less likely to have children. Missed individuals resided in less wealthy households, had different distributions of sex and occupation, and were more likely to seek care at health facilities. Despite these differences, simulating a survey in which missed households were included in the sampling frame resulted in less than a 5% estimated bias in these outcomes. Although community-based studies are upheld as the gold standard study design in assessing immunity gaps and underlying community health characteristics, these findings underscore the fact that sampling biases can impact the results of even well-conducted community-based surveys. Results from these studies should be interpreted in the context of the study methodology and challenges faced during implementation, which include shortcomings in establishing accurate and up-to-date sampling frames. Failure to account for these shortcomings may result in biased estimates and detrimental effects on decision-making.

Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Post-campaign coverage evaluation of a measles and rubella supplementary immunization activity in five districts in India, 2019-2020.

BACKGROUND: In alignment with the Measles and Rubella (MR) Strategic Elimination plan, India conducted a mass measles and rubella vaccination campaign across the country between 2017 and 2020 to provide a dose of MR containing vaccine to all children aged 9 months to 15 years. We estimated campaign vaccination coverage in five districts in India and assessed campaign awareness and factors associated with vaccination during the campaign to better understand reasons for not receiving the dose. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Community-based cross-sectional serosurveys were conducted in five districts of India among children aged 9 months to 15 years after the vaccination campaign. Campaign coverage was estimated based on home-based immunization record or caregiver recall. Campaign coverage was stratified by child- and household-level risk factors and descriptive analyses were performed to assess reasons for not receiving the campaign dose. Three thousand three hundred and fifty-seven children aged 9 months to 15 years at the time of the campaign were enrolled. Campaign coverage among children aged 9 months to 5 years documented or by recall ranged from 74.2% in Kanpur Nagar District to 90.4% in Dibrugarh District, Assam. Similar coverage was observed for older children. Caregiver awareness of the campaign varied from 88.3% in Hoshiarpur District, Punjab to 97.6% in Dibrugarh District, Assam, although 8% of children whose caregivers were aware of the campaign were not vaccinated during the campaign. Failure to receive the campaign dose was associated with urban settings, low maternal education, and lack of school attendance although the associations varied by district. CONCLUSION: Awareness of the MR vaccination campaign was high; however, campaign coverage varied by district and did not reach the elimination target of 95% coverage in any of the districts studied. Areas with lower coverage among younger children must be prioritized by strengthening the routine immunization programme and implementing strategies to identify and reach under-vaccinated children.