Unpaid carers of people with dementia and information communication technology: Use, impact and ideas for the future.

OBJECTIVES: Several 100,000s of people living with dementia in the UK are cared for at home by a spouse or relative. Few studies have considered the ICT needs and experiences of unpaid carers. This study explores the types of ICT unpaid carers use, the ways they use ICT, the impact of ICT-use, and their ideas for how ICT could be more supportive of their role as a carer. METHODS: Six focus groups with 32 unpaid carers of people living with dementia discussed their experiences of - and barriers to - using ICT. Transcripts were analysed thematically according to three types of ICT (mainstream, accessible and formal) and five functions (supporting domestic tasks, care management, monitoring, communication and information and education). RESULTS: Participants predominantly used mainstream ICT devices such as laptops and smartphones and internet-enabled applications including videoconferencing and social media platforms to support their daily activities and assist them in their caring role. A few participants discussed using accessible devices such as memory clocks and formal telecare and care-phone services for care management and monitoring functions. Participants' ideas for improvements centred on personalised communication applications that facilitate remote interactions and promote persons living with dementia's independence. Others expressed concerns about the growing need to use ICT to access formal care services and the inadequacy of the ICT infrastructure in some care homes. CONCLUSIONS: Unpaid carers mostly turn to readily available mainstream ICT to support their personal and care activities. Further research is required to understand the social impact of the increasing reliance of ICT across health, social and residential care service sectors. Improved cooperation between unpaid carers, technology developers and care services providers could align ICT development to the needs and experiences of families living with dementia and assist unpaid carers with identifying ICTs that optimally support their personal circumstances.

Scaling-up an evidence-based intervention for family carers of people with dementia: Current and future costs and outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: The STrAtegies for RelaTives (START) intervention is effective and cost-effective in supporting family carers of people with dementia. It is currently not available to all eligible carers in England. What would be the impacts on service costs and carer health-related quality of life if START was provided to all eligible carers in England, currently and in future? METHODS: Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data from a previously conducted randomised controlled trial were combined with current and future projections of numbers of people with newly diagnosed dementia to estimate overall and component costs and health-related quality of life outcomes between 2015 (base year for projections) and 2040. RESULTS: Scaling-up START requires investments increasing annually but would lead to significant savings in health and social care costs. Family carers of people with dementia would experience improvements in mental health and quality of life, with clinical effects lasting at least 6 years. Scaling up the START intervention to eligible carers was estimated to cost £9.4 million in 2020, but these costs would lead to annual savings of £68 million, and total annual quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains of 1247. Although the costs of START would increase to £19.8 million in 2040, savings would rise to £142.7 million and Quality adjusted life years gained to 1883. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling-up START for family carers of people with dementia in England would improve the lives of family carers and reduce public sector costs. Family carers play a vital part in dementia care; evidence-based interventions that help them to maintain this role, such as START, should be available across the country.

Long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the quality of life of people with dementia and their family carers.

INTRODUCTION: Few studies have longitudinally mapped quality of life (QoL) trajectories of newly diagnosed people with dementia and their carers, particularly during coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: In a UK cohort study, 261 newly diagnosed people with dementia and 206 family carers were assessed prior to the pandemic (July 2019-March 2020), followed up after the first lockdown (July-October 2020) and then again a year and 2 years later. Latent growth curve modelling examined the level and change of QoL over the four time-points using dementia-specific QoL measures (DEMQOL and C-DEMQOL). RESULTS: Despite variations in individual change scores, our results suggest that generally people with dementia maintained their QoL during the pandemic and experienced some increase towards the end of the period. This contrasted with carers who reported a general deterioration in their QoL over the same period. 'Confidence in future' and 'Feeling supported' were the only carer QoL subscales to show some recovery post-pandemic. DISCUSSION: It is positive that even during a period of global disruption, decline in QoL is not inevitable following the onset of dementia. However, it is of concern that carer QoL declined during this same period even after COVID-19 restrictions had been lifted. Carers play an invaluable role in the lives of people with dementia and wider society, and our findings suggest that, post-pandemic, they may require greater support to maintain their QoL.

Projected costs of informal care for older people in England.

BACKGROUND: Health economics research and economic evaluation have increasingly taken a societal perspective, accounting for the economic impacts of informal care. Projected economic costs of informal care help researchers and policymakers understand better the long-term consequences of policy reforms and health interventions. This study makes projections of the economic costs of informal care for older people in England. METHODS: Data come from two national surveys: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA, N = 35,425) and the Health Survey for England (N = 17,292). We combine a Markov model with a macrosimulation model to make the projections. We explore a range of assumptions about future demographic and epidemiological trends to capture model uncertainty and take a Bayesian approach to capture parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: We estimate that the economic costs of informal care were £54.2 billion in 2019, three times larger than the expenditure on formal long-term care. Those costs are projected to rise by 87% by 2039, faster than public expenditure but slower than private expenditure on formal long-term care. These results are sensitive to assumptions about future life expectancy, fertility rates, and progression of disabilities in the population. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention schemes aiming to promote healthy aging and independence will be important to alleviate the costs of informal care. The government should strengthen support for informal caregivers and care recipients to ensure the adequacy of care, protect the well-being of caregivers, and prevent the costs of informal care from spilling over to other sectors of the economy.

Estimating the costs of blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment among people with diabetes in India.

OBJECTIVES: This study provides an estimate of the annual cost of blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) among people with diabetes aged 40 years and above in India in the year 2019. DESIGN: A cost of illness study. SETTING: India. PARTICIPANTS: People with diabetes aged 40 years and above in India in the year 2019. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimates are provided for the total costs of screening for most common vision-threatening eye conditions, treatment of these conditions, economic activity lost by these people and their family carers whose ability to work is affected, and loss of quality of life experienced by people with diabetes and blindness or MSVI. RESULTS: It is estimated that for people with diabetes aged 40 years or above, annual screening followed by eye examination where required would cost around 42.3 billion Indian rupees (INR) (4230 crores) per year; treating sight problems around 2.87 billion INR (287 crores) per year if 20% of those needing treatment receive it; and lost economic activity around 472 billion INR (47 200 crores). Moreover, 2.86 million (0.286 crores) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) are lost annually due to blindness and MSVI. The estimate of lost production is highly sensitive to the proportion of people with MSVI able to work and how their output compares with that of a person with no visual impairment. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to estimate the cost of blindness and MSVI for people aged 40 years and over with diabetes in India. The annual cost to the Indian economy is substantial. This cost will be expected to fall if a successful screening and treatment plan is introduced in India. Further work is suggested using more robust data, when available, to estimate the loss of productivity and loss of QALYs, as this would be worthwhile.

The relationships between informal and formal social care for older people in England: A comparison before and after the Care Act 2014.

Social care is an integral part of the UK welfare system and plays an imperative role in promoting the well-being of older people. This study investigates the impacts of receiving informal social care on formal social care use among community-dwelling older people in England before and after the implementation of the Care Act 2014. Data came from the Health Survey for England for the years 2011 to 2018 (N = 17,292). Bivariate probit models were used to address the endogeneity issue. The analysis shows that receipt of informal care substitutes for formal care. Informal care had a strong substitution effect on formal personal care before 2015, which was significantly weakened after 2015. While the receipt of formal personal care has been increasingly "carer-blind," that of formal domestic care depends on the availability of informal carers and personal affordability, which may result in unmet care needs.

Household wealth, neighbourhood deprivation and frailty amongst middle-aged and older adults in England: a longitudinal analysis over 15 years (2002-2017).

BACKGROUND: frailty is a condition of reduced function and health due to ageing processes and is associated with a higher risk of falls, hospitalisation, disability and mortality. OBJECTIVE: to determine the relationship between household wealth and neighbourhood deprivation with frailty status, independently of demographic factors, educational attainment and health behaviours. DESIGN: population-based cohort study. SETTING: communities in England. SUBJECTS: in total 17,438 adults aged 50+ from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. METHODS: multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic regression was used in this study. Frailty was measured using a frailty index. We defined small geographic areas (neighbourhoods) using English Lower layer Super Output Areas. Neighbourhood deprivation was measured by the English Index of Multiple Deprivation, grouped into quintiles. Health behaviours included in this study are smoking and frequency of alcohol consumption. RESULTS: the proportion of respondents who were prefrail and frail were 33.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 33.0-34.6%] and 11.7 (11.1-12.2)%, respectively. Participants in the lowest wealth quintile and living in the most deprived neighbourhood quintile had 1.3 (95% CI = 1.2-1.3) and 2.2 (95% CI = 2.1-2.4) times higher odds of being prefrail and frail, respectively, than the wealthiest participants living in the least deprived neighbourhoods Living in more deprived neighbourhood and poorer wealth was associated with an increased risk of becoming frail. Those inequalities did not change over time. CONCLUSIONS: in this population-based sample, living in a deprived area or having low wealth was associated with frailty in middle-aged and older adults. This relationship was independent of the effects of individual demographic characteristics and health behaviours.

Receipt of help by people with cognitive impairment: results from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether people with dementia or low memory/orientation reported more help misaligned with needs - more unmet need and/or more unrequired help - than other people with similar levels of functional limitation, and examined associations with quality of life. METHODS: From pooled English Longitudinal Study of Ageing data from waves 6, 7, and 8, we identified community-dwelling people aged 50+ with: dementia (n= 405); low memory/orientation but no dementia (n= 4520); and intact memory/orientation (n= 10,264). Unmet need (not receiving help for the functional limitation) and unrequired help (receipt of help without the respective functional limitation) were used as outcomes in two-part regressions. Quality of life (CASP-19) was used as a continuous outcome in a linear regression. Functional limitation and its interaction with cognitive status and socio-demographic factors were included in the models. RESULTS: Those with dementia or low memory/orientation but few functional limitations reported more unmet needs and unrequired help than their counterparts with intact memory/orientation. At high levels of limitations, the needs of those with dementia or lower memory/orientation were met more often and the receipt of unrequired help was similar compared to those with intact memory/orientation. Unmet need and unrequired help were associated with poorer quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Unmet need and unrequired help were particular challenges for those with poorer cognition and potentially at early stages of dementia; they were associated with lower quality of life. Our results highlight the importance of good-quality timely diagnosis, identification of needs, and person-centred assessment to help improve quality of life.

The economic case for hospital discharge services for people experiencing homelessness in England: An in-depth analysis with different service configurations providing specialist care.

There are long-standing concerns that people experiencing homelessness may not recover well if left unsupported after a hospital stay. This study reports on a study investigating the cost-effectiveness of three different 'in patient care coordination and discharge planning' configurations for adults experiencing homelessness who are discharged from hospitals in England. The first configuration provided a clinical and housing in-reach service during acute care and discharge coordination but with no 'step-down' care. The second configuration provided clinical and housing in-reach, discharge coordination and 'step-down' intermediate care. The third configuration consisted of housing support workers providing in-reach and discharge coordination as well as step-down care. These three configurations were each compared with 'standard care' (control, defined as one visit by the homelessness health nurse before discharge during which patients received an information leaflet on local services). Multiple sources of data and multi-outcome measures were adopted to assess the cost utility of hospital discharge service delivery for the NHS and broader public perspective. Details of 354 participants were collated on service delivery costs (salary, on-costs, capital, overheads and 'hotel' costs, advertising and other indirect costs), the economic consequences for different public services (e.g. NHS, social care, criminal justice, housing, etc.) and health utilities (quality-adjusted-life-years, QALYs). Findings were complex across the configurations, but, on the whole, there was promising evidence suggesting that, with delivery costs similar to those reported for bed-based intermediate care, step-down care secured better health outcomes and improved cost-effectiveness (compared with usual care) within NICE cost-effectiveness recommendations.

The sociocultural framing of public attitudes to sharing the costs of social care for older people in England.

Twelve synchronous online focus groups were conducted, each involving four to six members of the general public who had expressed in-principle support for sharing the costs of social care for older people between service users and government. These explored participants' reasons for preferring a shared approach and their views on how costs should be shared, with particular attention given to the sociocultural frames employed. Four main sociocultural frames were identified, reflecting dominant discourses concerning (i) the financial burden of meeting social care need ('scarcity' frame) (ii) the core purpose of social care ('medicalised conception of care' frame) (iii) the role and perceived limitations of the private market ('consumer' frame), and (iv) fundamental concerns about safety, security and belonging ('loss and abandonment' frame). Of these four frames, the 'scarcity' frame was dominant, with views about how costs should be shared overwhelmingly formulated upon assumptions of insufficient resources. This was reflected in concerns about affordability and the consequent need for the financial burden to be shared between individuals and government, and resulted in a residual vision for care and anxieties about care quality, cliff-edge costs and abandonment. The concept of shared funding was also employed rhetorically to suggest an equitable approach to managing financial burden, reflected in phrases such as 'splitting the difference'. Whilst out-of-pocket payments were sometimes seen as useful or necessary in the context of scarce public resources, the idea of shared funding was sometimes interpreted more flexibly to include individual contributions made in a range of ways, including tax, social insurance payments and wider social and economic contributions to society. Despite the dominance of the 'scarcity' frame, participants favoured greater government contribution than currently. These four frames and their associated discourses provide insight into how the public 'hear' and make sense of the debate about social care funding and, specifically, how apparent support for shared public-private funding is structured. Government and those hoping to influence the future of social care funding need to promote a vision of funding reform and win support for it by actively engaging with the sociocultural frames that the public recognise and engage with, with all of their apparent inconsistencies and contradictions.

Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the effect of recent stalling of life expectancy and various scenarios for disability progression on projections of social care expenditure between 2018 and 2038, and the likelihood of reaching the Ageing Society Grand Challenge mission of five extra healthy, independent years at birth. DESIGN: two linked projections models: the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model and the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre long-term care projections model, updated to include 2018-based population projections. POPULATION: PACSim: about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the England population in 2014) created from three nationally representative longitudinal ageing studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total social care expenditure (public and private) for older people, and men and women's independent life expectancy at age 65 (IndLE65) under five scenarios of changing disability progression and recovery with and without lower life expectancy. RESULTS: between 2018 and 2038, total care expenditure was projected to increase by 94.1%-1.25% of GDP; men's IndLE65 increasing by 14.7% (range 11.3-16.5%), exceeding the 8% equivalent of the increase in five healthy, independent years at birth, although women's IndLE65 increased by only 4.7% (range 3.2-5.8%). A 10% reduction in disability progression and increase in recovery resulted in the lowest increase in total care expenditure and increases in both men's and women's IndLE65 exceeding 8%. CONCLUSIONS: interventions that slow down disability progression, and improve recovery, could significantly reduce social care expenditure and meet government targets for increases in healthy, independent years.

Factors associated with change over time in quality of life of people with dementia: longitudinal analyses from the MODEM cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research to date offers mixed evidence about the relationship between quality of life and severity of cognitive impairment in people with dementia. We aimed to investigate longitudinal changes in patient- and proxy-rated health-related quality of life (HRQL) by severity of dementia and explore factors associated with changes in HRQL over a one-year period. We used data from the MODEM longitudinal cohort study which recruited dyads of persons with clinically diagnosed dementia and their principal carer and interviewed them face-to-face at baseline and again 1 year later. METHODS: Quota sampling was used to generate balanced numbers (target n = 100 for each severity level) of people with mild cognitive impairment (20+ on the standardised Mini-Mental State Examination (sMMSE)), moderate cognitive impairment (score 10 to 19), and severe cognitive impairment (score 0 to 9). Persons with dementia without an identifiable family carer or other informant (e.g., a formal/professional/paid carer) were excluded from the study. Participants answered a series of questions measuring their HRQL: DEMQOL, DEMQOL-proxy, EQ-5D-3 L, EQ-5D-3L proxy. Multiple regression models were built to understand the effects of baseline demographics and dementia symptoms (cognitive impairment, neuropsychiatric symptoms) on change in HRQL over 1 year. RESULTS: Two hundred and forty-three dyads of people with clinically diagnosed dementia and carers completed baseline and follow-up interviews. Most measures of HRQL remaining relatively stable between time-points, but one index of HRQL, EQ-5D proxy, significantly declined. Depending on the HRQL measure, different factors were associated with change in HRQL. The only factor consistently associated with decline in HRQL (when compared to improvement) was having a diagnosis of a non-Alzheimer's dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Deterioration in HRQL is not an inevitable part of the dementia journey. However, people with non-Alzheimer's dementias may be more susceptible to HRQL decline. This may indicate that those with non-Alzheimer's dementia may benefit from specific support focussed on maintaining their quality of life.

Social Insurance for Long-term Care.

The issue of how best to finance long-term care (LTC) is the subject of recent reforms, forthcoming reforms or continuing debate in various countries and remains as relevant and challenging as ever. LTC services are crucial to the wellbeing of large numbers of older adults who need help with everyday tasks. Demand for LTC for older adults is projected to rise across developed and developing countries as the number of older adults rises. Supply of care services is likely to remain constrained due to shortages of long-term care workforce and financial constraints in many countries, and the financial risks associated with LTC remain. Financing of LTC is a complicated issue which raises considerations of economic efficiency and incentives, equity including intergenerational equity, the balance of risk between public and private funding, and sustainability of public expenditures. The aim of this paper is to discuss analytically the case for social insurance as an equitable and efficient way to finance LTC. The paper considers social insurance systems, especially in Germany and Japan, in comparison with safety net tax funded systems such as in England and the USA and more generous tax funded systems such as in Sweden and Denmark. Social insurance has advantages and disadvantages compared with these other systems. It tends to be associated with greater clarity and acceptability since it involves collection of revenues ear marked for LTC and, at least in principle, a link between contributions and benefits on the basis of clear eligibility criteria.

A cohort study of the impact of COVID-19 on the quality of life of people newly diagnosed with dementia and their family carers.

Introduction: COVID-19 has impacted people with dementia and their family carers, yet little is known about effects on overall quality of life. Methods: In a UK cohort study, pre- and post-pandemic data were collected from 114 carers and 93 recently diagnosed people with dementia. Latent growth curve modeling examined change in quality of life. Results: Carers reported significant decline in quality of life, although no change was demonstrated by people with dementia. In multivariable analyses, higher levels of cognitive impairment, deprivation, study site, and lower number of memory clinic contacts were associated with greater decline in carer quality of life. Discussion: Maintaining life quality for people with dementia during the pandemic appears to have come at the expense of their family carers. This inequity has fallen hardest on those caring for people with more severe dementia, in deprived areas, and with least support from memory services. These effects may be prevented or reversed by post-diagnostic care.

What are the current and projected future cost and health-related quality of life implications of scaling up cognitive stimulation therapy?

OBJECTIVES: Cognitive stimulation therapy (CST) is one of the few non-pharmacological interventions for people living with dementia shown to be effective and cost-effective. What are the current and future cost and health-related quality of life implications of scaling-up CST to eligible new cases of dementia in England? METHODS/DESIGN: Data from trials were combined with microsimulation and macrosimulation modelling to project future prevalence, needs and costs. Health and social costs, unpaid care costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared with and without scaling-up of CST and follow-on maintenance CST (MCST). RESULTS: Scaling-up group CST requires year-on-year increases in expenditure (mainly on staff), but these would be partially offset by reductions in health and care costs. Unpaid care costs would increase. Scaling-up MCST would also require additional expenditure, but without generating savings elsewhere. There would be improvements in general cognitive functioning and health-related quality of life, summarised in terms of QALY gains. Cost per QALY for CST alone would increase from £12,596 in 2015 to £19,573 by 2040, which is below the threshold for cost-effectiveness used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Cost per QALY for CST and MCST combined would grow from £19,883 in 2015 to £30,906 by 2040, making it less likely to be recommended by NICE on cost-effectiveness grounds. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling-up CST England for people with incident dementia can improve lives in an affordable, cost-effective manner. Adding MCST also improves health-related quality of life, but the economic evidence is less compelling.

Burden of Diabetic Retinopathy amongst People with Diabetes Attending Primary Care in Kerala: Nayanamritham Project.

BACKGROUND: The burden of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in people attending the public health sector in India is unclear. Thirty percent of the population in India is reliant on public healthcare. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of DR and its risk factors in people with diabetes in the non-communicable disease registers who were attending the family health centres (FHCs) in the Thiruvananthapuram district in Kerala. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted over 12 months in 2019 within the framework of a pilot district-wide teleophthalmology DR screening programme. The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of any DR and sight-threatening DR (STDR) in the whole sample, considering socio-demography, lifestyle and known clinical risk groups, are reported. RESULTS: A total of 4527 out of 5307 (85.3%) screened in the FHCs had gradable retinal images in at least one eye. The age and gender standardised prevalence for any DR was 17.4% (95% CI 15.1, 19.7), and STDR was 3.3% (95% CI 2.1, 4.5). Ages 41-70 years, males, longer diabetes duration, hyperglycaemia and hypertension, insulin users and lower socio-economic status were associated with both DR outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of DR and its risk factors in this study highlights the need to implement DR screening programs within primary care to reduce health inequality.

A Longitudinal Study of Functional Unmet Need Among People with Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the changes of unmet need in dementia may enable effective targeting of help and allow people to stay in their homes longer. OBJECTIVE: We investigated changes in unmet need and functioning over a 4-year period and the role of socio-demographic factors in these changes among people with dementia. METHODS: 234 community-dwelling people with dementia at baseline were studied in three consecutive waves (four years) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Unmet needs (self/informant-reported limitations for which no help was received) and functional limitations (self/informant-reported difficulties in activities/instrumental activities of daily living and mobility) were modelled with latent growth curves. Sex, age, partnership, and socioeconomic status at baseline were used as predictors. Admission to a care home was an additional outcome. RESULTS: Unmet needs increased over time, especially among those who initially had more functional limitations. Unmet needs contributed to faster decline in functional capability, except among those with many limitations initially. The major driver of increased unmet needs was not having a partner (direct effect). Age, sex, and wealth contributed indirectly via the initial level of functional limitations and/or unmet need. Those with several functional limitations but few unmet needs were most likely to move to a care home. CONCLUSION: Unmet need increases over time in those with dementia with mitigating effects of having a partner and initial levels of functioning. Meeting needs at early stages of dementia, especially for those living alone and when functional limitations are low may help slow functional decline.

Complex interventions to implement a diabetic retinopathy care pathway in the public health system in Kerala: the Nayanamritham study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Using a type 2 hybrid effectiveness-implementation design, we aim to pilot a diabetic retinopathy (DR) care pathway in the public health system in Kerala to understand how it can be scaled up to and sustained in the whole state. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Currently, there is no systematic DR screening programme in Kerala. Our intervention is a teleophthalmology pathway for people with diabetes in the non-communicable disease registers in 16 family health centres. The planned implementation strategy of the pathway will be developed based on the discrete Expert Recommendations for Implementing Change taxonomy. We will use both quantitative data from a cross-sectional study and qualitative data obtained from structured interviews, surveys and group discussions with stakeholders to report the effectiveness of the DR care pathway and evaluation of the implementation strategy.We will use logistic regression models to assess crude associations DR and sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy and fractional polynomials to account for the form of continuous covariates to predict uptake of DR screening. The primary effectiveness outcome is the proportion of patients in the non-communicable disease register with diabetes screened for DR over 12 months. Other outcomes include cost-effectiveness, safety, efficiency, patient satisfaction, timeliness and equity. The outcomes of evaluation of the implementation strategies include acceptability, feasibility, adoption, appropriateness, fidelity, penetration, costs and sustainability. Addition of more family health centres during the staggered initial phase of the programme will be considered as a sign of acceptability and feasibility. In the long term, the state-wide adoption of the DR care pathway will be considered as a successful outcome of the Nayanamritham study. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by Indian Medical Research Council (2018-0551) dated 13 March 2019. Study findings will be disseminated through scientific publications and the report will inform adoption of the DR care pathway by Kerala state in future. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN28942696.

Analysis of trends in emergency and elective hospital admissions and hospital bed days 1997 to 2015.

Despite the concerns and efforts of policy makers, it has proved difficult to restrain the growth in hospital admissions in England. Using data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), in this paper we perform, for all patients treated in English hospitals between 1997/8 and 2014/15, an age, period, cohort (APC) analysis to examine how far trends in emergency and elective hospital admissions and bed days can be explained by: the effects of the age distribution of the population, together with rising numbers of older people; cohort effects due to differing admission rates of people born in different years, and period effects, effects relating to a specific year which cannot be explained by either age or cohort effects. This time period was chosen to cover a time of significant policy upheaval in the NHS, including significant reforms to the ways in which hospitals were funded, managed and had patients referred to them. We find that most of the increase in elective admissions is due to the period effect. Elective bed-days have been decreasing, generally due to a shift towards day-cases. Emergency bed-day rates have remained consistent, with the effects of an ageing population being counteracted by increasingly healthy cohorts. These results suggest that demographic factors are not the primary drivers of growth in hospital use and that there may be a role for well-designed policy to influence the current trends.