The Effect of Semaglutide on Mortality and COVID-19-Related Deaths: An Analysis From the SELECT Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with overweight and obesity are at increased risk of death from multiple causes, including cardiovascular (CV) death, with few therapies proven to reduce the risk. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess the effect of semaglutide 2.4 mg on all-cause death, CV death, and non-CV death, including subcategories of death and death from coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: The SELECT (Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Overweight or Obesity) trial randomized 17,604 participants ≥45 years of age with a body mass index ≥27 kg/m2 with established CV disease but without diabetes to once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2.4 mg or placebo; the mean trial duration was 3.3 years. Adjudicated causes of all deaths, COVID-19 cases, and associated deaths were captured prospectively. RESULTS: Of 833 deaths, 485 (58%) were CV deaths, and 348 (42%) were non-CV deaths. Participants assigned to semaglutide vs placebo had lower rates of all-cause death (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.71-0.93), CV death (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.71-1.01), and non-CV death (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.62-0.95). The most common causes of CV death with semaglutide vs placebo were sudden cardiac death (98 vs 109; HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.68-1.17) and undetermined death (77 vs 90; HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.63-1.15). Infection was the most common cause of non-CV death and occurred at a lower rate in the semaglutide vs the placebo group (62 vs 87; HR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.51-0.98). Semaglutide did not reduce incident COVID-19; however, among participants who developed COVID-19, fewer participants treated with semaglutide had COVID-19-related serious adverse events (232 vs 277; P = 0.04) or died of COVID-19 (43 vs 65; HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.44-0.96). High rates of infectious deaths occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, with less infectious death in the semaglutide arm, and resulted in fewer participants in the placebo group being at risk for CV death. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to placebo, patients treated with semaglutide 2.4 mg had lower rates of all-cause death, driven similarly by CV and non-CV death. The lower rate of non-CV death with semaglutide was predominantly because of fewer infectious deaths. These findings highlight the effect of semaglutide on mortality across a broad population of patients with CV disease and obesity. (Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Overweight or Obesity [SELECT]; NCT03574597).

Clonal hematopoiesis, cardiovascular events and treatment benefit in 63,700 individuals from five TIMI randomized trials.

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease in the general population. Currently, it is unclear whether this association is observed in large clinical trial cohorts with a high burden of existing CV disease or whether CV therapies can mitigate CHIP-associated CV risk. To address these questions, we studied 63,700 patients from five randomized trials that tested established therapies for CV disease, including treatments targeting the proteins PCSK9, SGLT2, P2Y12 and FXa. During a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 7,453 patients had at least one CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke or coronary revascularization). The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for CV events for CHIP+ patients was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.99-1.16, P = 0.08), with consistent risk estimates across each component of CV risk. Significant heterogeneity in the risk of MI was observed, such that CHIP+ patients had a 30% increased risk of first MI (aHR = 1.31 (1.05-1.64), P = 0.02) but no increased risk of recurrent MI (aHR = 0.94 (0.79-1.13), Pint = 0.008), as compared to CHIP- patients. Moreover, no significant heterogeneity in treatment effect between individuals with and without CHIP was observed for any of the therapies studied in the five trials. These results indicate that in clinical trial populations, CHIP is associated with incident but not recurrent coronary events and that the presence of CHIP does not appear to identify patients who will derive greater benefit from commonly used CV therapies.

Risk of new-onset diabetes and efficacy of pharmacological weight loss therapy.

AIMS: To develop a clinical risk model to identify individuals at higher risk of developing new-onset diabetes and who might benefit more from weight loss pharmacotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 21 143 patients without type 2 diabetes at baseline from two TIMI clinical trials of stable cardiovascular patients were divided into a derivation (~2/3) and validation (~1/3) cohort. The primary outcome was new-onset diabetes. Twenty-seven candidate risk variables were considered, and variable selection was performed using multivariable Cox regression. The final model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration, and for its ability to identify patients who experienced a larger benefit from the weight loss medication lorcaserin in terms of risk of new-onset diabetes. RESULTS: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 2.3 (1.8-2.7) years, new-onset diabetes occurred in 1013 patients (7.7%). The final model included five independent predictors (glycated haemoglobin, fasting glucose, age, body mass index, and triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein). The clinical risk model showed good discrimination (Harrell's C-indices 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.788-0.817 and 0.807, 95% CI 0.788-0.826) in the derivation and validation cohorts. The calibration plot demonstrated adequate calibration (2.5-year area under the curve was 81.2 [79.1-83.5]). While hazard ratios for new-onset diabetes with a weight-loss therapy were comparable across risk groups (annual risks of <1%, 1%-5%, and >5%), there was a sixfold gradient in absolute risk reduction from lowest to highest risk group (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical risk model effectively predicts new-onset diabetes, with potential implications for personalized patient care and therapeutic decision making.

Efficacy and safety of SGLT2 inhibitors with and without glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists: a SMART-C collaborative meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists both improve cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. We sought to evaluate whether the benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors are consistent in patients receiving and not receiving GLP-1 receptor agonists. METHODS: We conducted a collaborative meta-analysis of trials included in the SGLT2 Inhibitor Meta-Analysis Cardio-Renal Trialists' Consortium, restricted to participants with diabetes. Treatment effects from individual trials were obtained from Cox regression models and pooled using inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. The two main cardiovascular outcomes assessed included major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death), and hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death. The main kidney outcomes assessed were chronic kidney disease progression (≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], kidney failure [eGFR <15 mL/min/1·73 m2, chronic dialysis, or kidney transplantation], or death due to kidney failure), and the rate of change in eGFR over time. Safety outcomes were also assessed. FINDINGS: Across 12 randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials, 3065 (4·2%) of 73 238 participants with diabetes were using GLP-1 receptor agonists at baseline. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in participants both receiving and not receiving GLP-1 receptor agonists (hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·63-1·03 vs 0·90, 0·86-0·94; p-heterogeneity=0·31). Effects on hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death (0·76, 0·57-1·01 vs 0·78, 0·74-0·82; p-heterogeneity=0·90) and chronic kidney disease progression (0·65, 0·46-0·94 vs 0·67, 0·62-0·72; p-heterogeneity=0·81) were also consistent regardless of GLP-1 receptor agonist use, as was the effect on the chronic rate of change in eGFR over time (heterogeneity=0·92). Fewer serious adverse events occurred with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo, irrespective of GLP-1 receptor agonist use (relative risk 0·87, 95% CI 0·79-0·96 vs 0·91, 0·89-0·93; p-heterogeneity=0·41). INTERPRETATION: The effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on cardiovascular and kidney outcomes are consistent regardless of the background use of GLP-1 receptor agonists. These findings suggest independent effects of these evidence-based therapies and support clinical practice guidelines recommending the use of these agents in combination to improve cardiovascular and kidney metabolic outcomes. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Ramaciotti Foundation.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: A SMART-C Collaborative Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) consistently improve heart failure and kidney-related outcomes; however, effects on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) across different patient populations are less clear. METHODS: This was a collaborative trial-level meta-analysis from the SGLT2i Meta-analysis Cardio-Renal Trialists Consortium, which includes all phase 3, placebo-controlled, outcomes trials of SGLT2i across 3 patient populations (patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure [HF], or chronic kidney disease). The outcomes of interest were MACE (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction , or stroke), individual components of MACE (inclusive of fatal and nonfatal events), all-cause mortality, and death subtypes. Effect estimates for SGLT2i versus placebo were meta-analyzed across trials and examined across key subgroups (established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, previous HF, albuminuria, chronic kidney disease stages, and risk groups). RESULTS: A total of 78 607 patients across 11 trials were included: 42 568 (54.2%), 20 725 (26.4%), and 15 314 (19.5%) were included from trials of patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, HF, or chronic kidney disease, respectively. SGLT2i reduced the rate of MACE by 9% (hazard ration [HR], 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.96], P<0.0001) with a consistent effect across all 3 patient populations (I2=0%) and across all key subgroups. This effect was primarily driven by a reduction in cardiovascular death (HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.92], P<0.0001), with no significant effect for myocardial infarction in the overall population (HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.87-1.04], P=0.29), and no effect on stroke (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.91-1.07], P=0.77). The benefit for cardiovascular death was driven primarily by reductions in HF death and sudden cardiac death (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.46-1.02] and HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95], respectively) and was generally consistent across subgroups, with the possible exception of being more apparent in those with albuminuria (Pinteraction=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i reduce the risk of MACE across a broad range of patients irrespective of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney function, or other major clinical characteristics at baseline. This effect is driven primarily by a reduction of cardiovascular death, particularly HF death and sudden cardiac death, without a significant effect on myocardial infarction in the overall population, and no effect on stroke. These data may help inform selection for SGLT2i therapies across the spectrum of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic disease.

Reductions in remnant cholesterol and VLDL cholesterol through inhibition of ANGPTL3 protein synthesis: an analysis from the TRANSLATE-TIMI 70 trial.

AIMS: Remnant cholesterol and very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) are increasingly recognized risk factors for atherosclerotic disease with few therapeutic options. Angiopoietin-like 3 (ANGPTL3), a key protein in the metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, is a promising target. METHODS AND RESULTS: TRANSLATE-TIMI 70 was a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial testing seven dose regimens of vupanorsen, an antisense oligonucleotide against ANGPTL3, in adults with non-HDL-C ≥ 100 mg/dL and triglycerides 150-500 mg/dL. The primary endpoint of this analysis was percentage change in remnant cholesterol (total cholesterol minus directly measured LDL-C minus HDL-C) and VLDL-C (directly measured) over 24 weeks. Two hundred eighty-six patients were enrolled, with a median age of 64 years and 44% female. Median baseline remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C were 42 and 31 mg/dL, respectively (reference: <30 mg/dL). Vupanorsen lowered remnant cholesterol by 42-59% at 24 weeks over placebo (P < 0.001), achieving a median level of 18 mg/dL at the highest dose. Over the same period, VLDL-C was reduced by 52-67% over placebo (P < 0.001), with a median achieved level of 2.5 mg/dL at the highest dose. The effect of vupanorsen on remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C reduction was dose-dependent and directly associated with the degree of ANGPTL3 inhibition: at 90% ANGPTL3 reduction, there was a 61% and 81% decrease in remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C, respectively. CONCLUSION: Inhibition of ANGPTL3 protein synthesis significantly lowered remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C in patients with hypertriglyceridaemia. The magnitude of reduction was associated with the degree of ANGPTL3 inhibition. These findings support ANGPTL3 inhibition as a promising target for lowering cholesterol on triglyceride-rich lipoproteins.

In this randomized controlled trial of 286 participants with elevated triglycerides, treatment with vupanorsen, an ANGPTL3 inhibitor, lowered remnant cholesterol by up to 59% and VLDL cholesterol by up to 67% over placebo. The effect of the treatment was sustained throughout 24 weeks and consistent across key patient subgroups. ANGPTL3 inhibition may be a promising approach to treat patients with elevated triglycerides.

Novel Polygenic Risk Score and Established Clinical Risk Factors for Risk Estimation of Aortic Stenosis.

Importance: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have proven to be as strong as or stronger than established clinical risk factors for many cardiovascular phenotypes. Whether this is true for aortic stenosis remains unknown. Objective: To develop a novel aortic stenosis PRS and compare its aortic stenosis risk estimation to established clinical risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP; 2011-2020), UK Biobank (2006-2010), and 6 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials, including DECLARE-TIMI 58 (2013-2018), FOURIER (TIMI 59; 2013-2017), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (2010-2014), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (2010-2013), SOLID-TIMI 52 (2009-2014), and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (2008-2013), which were a mix of population-based and randomized clinical trials. Individuals from UK Biobank and the MVP meeting a previously validated case/control definition for aortic stenosis were included. All individuals from TIMI trials were included unless they had a documented preexisting aortic valve replacement. Analysis took place from January 2022 to December 2023. Exposures: PRS for aortic stenosis (developed using data from MVP and validated in UK Biobank) and other previously validated cardiovascular PRSs, defined either as a continuous variable or as low (bottom 20%), intermediate, and high (top 20%), and clinical risk factors. Main Outcomes: Aortic stenosis (defined using International Classification of Diseases or Current Procedural Terminology codes in UK Biobank and MVP or safety event data in the TIMI trials). Results: The median (IQR) age in MVP was 67 (57-73) years, and 135 140 of 147 104 participants (92%) were male. The median (IQR) age in the TIMI trials was 66 (54-78) years, and 45 524 of 59 866 participants (71%) were male. The best aortic stenosis PRS incorporated 5 170 041 single-nucleotide variants and was associated with aortic stenosis in both the MVP testing sample (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.37-1.45 per 1 SD PRS; P = 4.6 × 10-116) and TIMI trials (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.62 per 1 SD PRS; P = 3.2 × 10-9). Among genetic and clinical risk factors, the aortic stenosis PRS performed comparably to most risk factors besides age, and within a given age range, the combination of clinical and genetic risk factors was additive, providing a 3- to 4-fold increased gradient of risk of aortic stenosis. However, the addition of the aortic stenosis PRS to a model including clinical risk factors only improved risk discrimination of aortic stenosis by 0.01 to 0.02 (C index in MVP: 0.78 with clinical risk factors, 0.79 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS; C index in TIMI: 0.71 with clinical risk factors, 0.73 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS). Conclusions: This study developed and validated 1 of the first aortic stenosis PRSs. While aortic stenosis genetic risk was independent from clinical risk factors and performed comparably to all other risk factors besides age, genetic risk resulted in only a small improvement in overall aortic stenosis risk discrimination beyond age and clinical risk factors. This work sets the stage for further development of an aortic stenosis PRS.

Natriuretic peptides, body mass index and heart failure risk: Pooled analyses of SAVOR-TIMI 53, DECLARE-TIMI 58 and CAMELLIA-TIMI 61.

AIM: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations are lower in patients with obesity. The interaction between body mass index (BMI) and NT-proBNP with respect to heart failure risk remains incompletely defined. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were pooled across three randomized clinical trials enrolling predominantly patients who were overweight or obese with established cardiometabolic disease: SAVOR-TIMI 53, DECLARE-TIMI 58 and CAMELLIA-TIMI 61. Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) was examined across strata of baseline BMI and NT-proBNP. The effect of dapagliflozin versus placebo was assessed for a treatment interaction across BMI categories in patients with or without an elevated baseline NT-proBNP (≥125 pg/ml). Among 24 455 patients, the median NT-proBNP was 96 (interquartile range [IQR]: 43-225) pg/ml and the median BMI was 33 (IQR 29-37) kg/m2, with 68% of patients having a BMI ≥30 kg/m2. There was a significant inverse association between NT-proBNP and BMI which persisted after adjustment for all clinical variables (p < 0.001). Within any range of NT-proBNP, those at higher BMI had higher risk of HHF at 2 years (comparing BMI <30 vs. ≥40 kg/m2 for NT-proBNP ranges of <125, 125-<450 and ≥450 pg/ml: 0.0% vs. 0.6%, 1.3% vs. 4.0%, and 8.1% vs. 13.8%, respectively), which persisted after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj] 7.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.16-17.66, HRadj 3.22 [95% CI 2.13-4.86], and HRadj 1.87 [95% CI 1.35-2.60], respectively). In DECLARE-TIMI 58, dapagliflozin versus placebo consistently reduced HHF across BMI categories in those with an elevated NT-proBNP (p-trend for HR across BMI = 0.60), with a pattern of greater absolute risk reduction (ARR) at higher BMI (ARR for BMI <30 to ≥40 kg/m2: 2.2% to 4.7%; p-trend = 0.059). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of HHF varies across BMI categories for any given range of circulating NT-proBNP. These findings showcase the importance of considering BMI when applying NT-proBNP for heart failure risk stratification, particularly for patients with low-level elevations in NT-proBNP (125-<450 pg/ml) where there appears to be a clinically meaningful absolute and relative risk gradient.

Hepatic fat changes with antisense oligonucleotide therapy targeting ANGPTL3.

BACKGROUND: Angiopoietin-like protein 3 (ANGPTL3) is a novel therapeutic target for hyperlipidemia. Vupanorsen, an antisense oligonucleotide targeting ANGPTL3, reduced triglycerides up to 57% in a phase 2b trial, but caused dose-dependent increases in hepatic fat fraction (HFF). OBJECTIVE: To determine the degree of HFF progression with escalating doses of vupanorsen, differential HFF increases in key patient subgroups, and the correlation between changes in HFF and liver enzymes. METHODS: TRANSLATE-TIMI 70 was a randomized, placebo-controlled trial testing 7 dosing regimens of vupanorsen in 286 adults with hyperlipidemia. A total of 227 patients had HFF measured at baseline and 24 weeks and were included in this analysis. RESULTS: The median HFF at baseline was 8.5%. Vupanorsen led to dose-dependent relative increases in HFF of up to 76% at 24 weeks (p < 0.001), corresponding to an absolute increase of up to 7.0% at the highest dose (p < 0.001). Increases in HFF were numerically greater in patients who had elevated baseline HFF, body mass index, triglycerides, or diabetes. Vupanorsen also increased liver enzymes in a dose-dependent manner, and changes in HFF were moderately positively correlated with changes in aspartate transaminase (AST) (rho = 0.49, p < 0.001) and alanine transaminase (ALT) (rho = 0.50, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Vupanorsen, an inhibitor of ANGPTL3 protein synthesis, caused dose-dependent increases in HFF. Increases in HFF were only moderately correlated with elevations in AST and ALT, suggesting that liver enzymes are an imperfect indicator to detect increases in hepatic fat. These results highlight the need to monitor HFF in clinical trials of therapies targeting intracellular ANGPTL3 inhibition, especially those that are targeted to the liver.

Risk Assessment of Kidney Disease Progression and Efficacy of SGLT2 Inhibition in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk assessment tool to identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at higher risk for kidney disease progression and who might benefit more from sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 41,204 patients with T2D from four Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) clinical trials were divided into derivation (70%) and validation cohorts (30%). Candidate predictors of kidney disease progression (composite of sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], end-stage kidney disease, or kidney death) were selected with multivariable Cox regression. Efficacy of dapagliflozin was assessed by risk categories (low: <0.5%; intermediate: 0.5 to <2%; high: ≥2%) in Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events (DECLARE)-TIMI 58. RESULTS: There were 695 events over a median follow-up of 2.4 years. The final model comprised eight independent predictors of kidney disease progression: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, T2D duration, glycated hemoglobin, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and hemoglobin. The c-indices were 0.798 (95% CI, 0.774-0.821) and 0.798 (95% CI, 0.765-0.831) in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration plot slope (deciles of predicted vs. observed risk) was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.04) in the validation cohort. Whereas relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin did not differ across risk categories, there was greater absolute risk reduction in patients with higher baseline risk, with a 3.5% absolute risk reduction in kidney disease progression at 4 years in the highest risk group (≥1%/year). Results were similar with the 2022 Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium risk prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Risk models for kidney disease progression can be applied in patients with T2D to stratify risk and identify those who experience a greater magnitude of benefit from SGLT2 inhibition.

Pitavastatin to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease in HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: The risk of cardiovascular disease is increased among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, so data regarding primary prevention strategies in this population are needed. METHODS: In this phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned 7769 participants with HIV infection with a low-to-moderate risk of cardiovascular disease who were receiving antiretroviral therapy to receive daily pitavastatin calcium (at a dose of 4 mg) or placebo. The primary outcome was the occurrence of a major adverse cardiovascular event, which was defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral arterial ischemia, revascularization, or death from an undetermined cause. RESULTS: The median age of the participants was 50 years (interquartile range, 45 to 55); the median CD4 count was 621 cells per cubic millimeter (interquartile range, 448 to 827), and the HIV RNA value was below quantification in 5250 of 5997 participants (87.5%) with available data. The trial was stopped early for efficacy after a median follow-up of 5.1 years (interquartile range, 4.3 to 5.9). The incidence of a major adverse cardiovascular event was 4.81 per 1000 person-years in the pitavastatin group and 7.32 per 1000 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48 to 0.90; P = 0.002). Muscle-related symptoms occurred in 91 participants (2.3%) in the pitavastatin group and in 53 (1.4%) in the placebo group; diabetes mellitus occurred in 206 participants (5.3%) and in 155 (4.0%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with HIV infection who received pitavastatin had a lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event than those who received placebo over a median follow-up of 5.1 years. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; REPRIEVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02344290.).

Assessment of Atherothrombotic Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Risk of atherothrombotic events is not uniform in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Tailored risk assessment may help guide selection of pharmacotherapies for cardiovascular primary and secondary prevention. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a risk model for atherothrombosis in patients with T2DM. METHODS: We developed and validated a risk model for myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke (IS) in a pooled cohort of 42,181 patients with T2DM from 4 TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) clinical trial cohorts. Candidate variables were assessed with multivariable Cox regression, and independent variables (P < 0.05) were retained in the final model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. Treatment interactions with dapagliflozin (sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor) and evolocumab (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor) were explored in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 58) and FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research with PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects with Elevated Risk) trials, respectively. RESULTS: Sixteen variables were independent predictors of MI or IS. The model identified a >8-fold gradient of MI or IS rates between the top vs bottom risk quintiles in the validation cohort (3-year Kaplan-Meier rate: 14.9% vs 1.4%; P < 0.0001). C-indexes were 0.704 and 0.706 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model was well-calibrated in both primary and secondary prevention. Absolute reduction in the rates of MI or IS tended to be greater in patients with higher baseline predicted risk for both dapagliflozin (absolute risk reduction: 2.1% vs 0.2%) and evolocumab (absolute risk reduction: 3.2% vs 1.0%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a risk score for atherothrombotic events, leveraging 16 routinely assessed clinical variables in patients with T2DM. The score has the potential to improve risk assessment and inform clinical decision-making.

Association of Cardiac Biomarkers With Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in High-risk Patients With Diabetes: A Secondary Analysis of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 Trial.

Importance: Dapagliflozin reduces the risk of hospitalizations for heart failure and the progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D), whereas the effects on reducing atherosclerotic events appear less clear. Objective: To explore whether N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) levels can identify a subset of patients with T2D at higher risk and who might benefit more from dapagliflozin with regard to atherosclerotic events. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a secondary analysis of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial, a randomized clinical trial of dapagliflozin in patients with T2D and either multiple risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD; approximately 60%) or established ASCVD (approximately 40%). All patients with available blood samples at randomization were included in these analyses. Data were collected from May 2013 to September 2018, and data were analyzed from May 2019 to June 2022. Interventions: Dapagliflozin vs placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), the composite of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular death, which was one of dual primary outcomes of the main trial. Results: Of 14 565 included patients, 9143 (62.8%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 63.9 (6.8) years. When tested individually in a multivariable model for MACE risk, NT-proBNP and hsTnT were each significantly associated with the risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] per 1 SD in log-transformed biomarker: NT-proBNP, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.49-1.76; hsTnT: 1.59; 95% CI, 1.46-1.74). The magnitude of the association was similar in patients with ASCVD (NT-proBNP: aHR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.45-1.77; hsTnT: aHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.81) and multiple risk factors for ASCVD (NT-proBNP: aHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.40-1.88; hsTnT: aHR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.29-1.77). Moreover, both biomarkers remained independently associated with MACE when both were included in the multivariable model (NT-proBNP: aHR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.34-1.60; hsTnT: aHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.53). Modeled as a continuous variable, baseline biomarker levels did not modify the relative treatment effect of dapagliflozin vs placebo with MACE. However, the relative risk reduction numerically grew with higher biomarker levels, as did the baseline risk. Thus, MACE event rates were nominally lower in dapagliflozin-treated vs placebo-treated patients with biomarker concentrations in the top quartile (NT-proBNP: HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.97; absolute risk reduction [ARR], 2.4%; hsTnT: HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-0.99; ARR, 2.7%), whereas there was no significant treatment effect in patients with biomarkers levels in quartiles 1 to 3 (NT-proBNP: HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.88-1.18; ARR, 0%; hsTnT: HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.84-1.13; ARR, 0.2%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, NT-proBNP and hsTnT levels were associated with the risk for future cardiovascular events in both primary and secondary prevention patients with T2D. Both cardiac biomarkers were helpful to identify patients at very high risk for atherosclerotic events that may derive reduction in risk of MACE with dapagliflozin. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01730534.

Effects of dapagliflozin on hospitalisations in people with type 2 diabetes: post-hoc analyses of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial.

BACKGROUND: In people with type 2 diabetes at high risk of cardiovascular or kidney disease, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors consistently reduce the risk of hospitalisations for heart failure. Less is known about their effects on hospitalisation from any cause, especially in people with type 2 diabetes without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which includes most of the global population of people with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to assess the effect of the SGLT2 inhibitor, dapagliflozin, on the risks of hospitalisations for any cause and for specific causes in people with type 2 diabetes with and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial was a double-blind, multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled study. People with type 2 diabetes and either risk factors for or established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral dapagliflozin 10 mg or placebo once daily. In these post-hoc analyses, the effects of dapagliflozin on risks of first non-elective any-cause and cause-specific hospitalisation were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression models overall and in the subset of participants without prevalent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The risk of total (first plus subsequent) non-elective hospitalisations was assessed with Lin-Wei-Ying-Yang model. Investigator-reported System Organ Class terms were used to classify cause-specific hospitalisations. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01730534. FINDINGS: Between April 25, 2013, and Sept 18, 2018, 17 160 people (6422 [37·4%] women, 10 738 [62·6%] men; mean age 63·9 years [SD 6·8]) were enrolled in the original trial, of whom 10186 (59·4%) had multiple risk factors for but did not have established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and 6835 (39·8%) had both no evidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and low KDIGO risk. Over a median follow-up of 4·2 years (IQR 3·9-4·4), dapagliflozin was associated with a lower risk of first non-elective hospitalisation for any cause (2779 [32·4%] of 8582 people in the dapagliflozin group vs 3036 [35·4%] of 8578 people in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 0·89 [95% CI 0·85-0·94]) and total (first plus subsequent) non-elective hospitalisations for any cause (risk ratio 0·92 [95% CI 0·86-0·97]). The association between dapagliflozin use and the risk of first non-elective hospitalisation for any cause was consistent in subgroups of participants with (HR 0·92 [95% CI 0·85-0·99] and without (0·87 [0·81-0·94]) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease at baseline (p interaction=0·31). Compared with the placebo group, the dapagliflozin group had lower risk of first hospitalisations due to cardiac disorders (HR 0·91 [95% CI 0·84-1·00]), metabolism and nutrition disorders (0·73 [0·60-0·89]), renal and urinary disorders (0·61 [0·49-0·77]), and due to any other cause excluding these three causes (0·90 [0·85-0·96]). Treatment with dapagliflozin was also associated with a lower risk of hospitalisations due to musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders (HR 0·81 [0·67-0·99]) and infections and infastations (HR 0·86 [0·78-0·96]). INTERPRETATION: Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of first and total non-elective hospitalisations for any cause in people with type 2 diabetes, regardless of the presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, including hospitalisations not directly attributed to cardiac, kidney, or metabolic causes. These findings might have implications on health-related quality of life for people with type 2 diabetes and on health-care costs attributable this condition. FUNDING: AstraZeneca.

Association Between Achieved Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Levels and Long-Term Cardiovascular and Safety Outcomes: An Analysis of FOURIER-OLE.

BACKGROUND: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a well-established risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. However, the optimal achieved LDL-C level with regard to efficacy and safety in the long term remains unknown. METHODS: In FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk), 27 564 patients with stable atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were randomized to evolocumab versus placebo, with a median follow-up of 2.2 years. In the open-label extension (FOURIER-OLE), 6635 of these patients were transitioned to open-label evolocumab regardless of initial treatment allocation in the parent trial and were followed for an additional median of 5 years. In this prespecified analysis, we examined the relationship between achieved LDL-C levels (an average of the first 2 LDL-C levels measured) in FOURIER-OLE (available in 6559 patients) and the incidence of subsequent cardiovascular and safety outcomes. We also performed sensitivity analyses evaluating cardiovascular and safety outcomes in the entire FOURIER and FOURIER-OLE patient population. Multivariable modeling was used to adjust for baseline factors associated with achieved LDL-C levels. RESULTS: In FOURIER-OLE, 1604 (24%), 2627 (40%), 1031 (16%), 486 (7%), and 811 (12%) patients achieved LDL-C levels of <20, 20 to <40, 40 to <55, 55 to <70, and ≥70 mg/dL, respectively. There was a monotonic relationship between lower achieved LDL-C levels-down to very low levels <20 mg/dL-and a lower risk of the primary efficacy end point (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospital admission for unstable angina or coronary revascularization) and the key secondary efficacy end point (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke) that persisted after multivariable adjustment (adjusted Ptrend<0.0001 for each end points). No statistically significant associations existed in the primary analyses between lower achieved LDL-C levels and increased risk of the safety outcomes (serious adverse events, new or recurrent cancer, cataract-related adverse events, hemorrhagic stroke, new-onset diabetes, neurocognitive adverse events, muscle-related events, or noncardiovascular death). Similar findings were noted in the entire FOURIER and FOURIER-OLE cohort up to a maximum follow-up of 8.6 years. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, long-term achievement of lower LDL-C levels, down to <20 mg/dL (<0.5 mmol/L), was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular outcomes with no significant safety concerns. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT01764633.

Growth differentiation factor 15 and cardiovascular risk: individual patient meta-analysis.

AIMS: Levels of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), a cytokine secreted in response to cellular stress and inflammation, have been associated with multiple types of cardiovascular (CV) events. However, its comparative prognostic performance across different presentations of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual patient meta-analysis was performed using data pooled from eight trials including 53 486 patients. Baseline GDF-15 concentration was analyzed as a continuous variable and using established cutpoints (<1200 ng/L, 1200-1800 ng/L, > 1800 ng/L) to evaluate its prognostic performance for CV death/hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and their components using Cox models adjusted for clinical variables and established CV biomarkers. Analyses were further stratified on ASCVD status: acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stabilized after recent ACS, and stable ASCVD. Overall, higher GDF-15 concentration was significantly and independently associated with an increased rate of CV death/HHF and MACE (P < 0.001 for each). However, while GDF-15 showed a robust and consistent independent association with CV death and HHF across all presentations of ASCVD, its prognostic association with future myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke only remained significant in patients stabilized after recent ACS or with stable ASCVD [hazard ratio (HR): 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-1.31 and HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.05-1.28 for MI and stroke, respectively] and not in ACS (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.90-1.06 and HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.39-1.92, respectively). CONCLUSION: Growth differentiation factor 15 consistently adds prognostic information for CV death and HHF across the spectrum of ASCVD. GDF-15 also adds prognostic information for MI and stroke beyond clinical risk factors and cardiac biomarkers but not in the setting of ACS.

Efficacy and Safety of Dapagliflozin by Baseline Insulin Regimen and Dose: Post Hoc Analyses From DECLARE-TIMI 58.

OBJECTIVE: The cardiorenal benefits of adding sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor therapy for patients on insulin, particularly those on intensive regimens that include short-acting (SA) insulin, have not been explored. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events trial (DECLARE-TIMI 58), 17,160 patients with type 2 diabetes were randomized to dapagliflozin or placebo for a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Cardiovascular (CV), renal, metabolic, and safety outcomes with dapagliflozin versus placebo by insulin dose and regimen were studied with Cox regression models. RESULTS: The study included 7,013 insulin users at baseline, with 4,650 (66.3%) patients on regimens including SA insulin. Insulin doses varied, with 2,443 (34.8%) patients receiving <0.5 IU/kg, 2,795 (39.9%) 0.5 to ≤1 IU/kg, and 1,339 (19.1%) >1 IU/kg. Dapagliflozin reduced CV death/hospitalization for heart failure among overall insulin users (hazard ratio [HR] 0.82 [95% CI 0.69-0.97]) and consistently in patients on insulin regimens with or without SA insulin (0.83 [0.67-1.03] and 0.78 [0.57-1.07], respectively, Pinteraction = 0.75). No heterogeneity was observed by insulin dose (Pinteraction = 0.43). The HR for major adverse CV events with dapagliflozin among insulin users (0.84 [0.74-0.97]) was similar irrespective of regimen or dose (Pinteraction = 0.75 and 0.07). Dapagliflozin reduced the rate of adverse renal outcomes overall and consistently across subgroups of insulin users. Decreases in HbA1c, weight, and systolic blood pressure with dapagliflozin were seen regardless of insulin dose or regimen. The known safety profile of dapagliflozin was unchanged in patients on intensive insulin regimens. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits and safety of dapagliflozin were maintained in high-risk patients receiving high-dose or intensive insulin regimens including SA insulin.

Anticoagulation and Antiplatelet Therapy for Prevention of Venous and Arterial Thrombotic Events in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19: COVID-PACT.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and safety of prophylactic full-dose anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy in critically ill COVID-19 patients remain uncertain. METHODS: COVID-PACT (Prevention of Arteriovenous Thrombotic Events in Critically-ill COVID-19 Patients Trial) was a multicenter, 2×2 factorial, open-label, randomized-controlled trial with blinded end point adjudication in intensive care unit-level patients with COVID-19. Patients were randomly assigned to a strategy of full-dose anticoagulation or standard-dose prophylactic anticoagulation. Absent an indication for antiplatelet therapy, patients were additionally randomly assigned to either clopidogrel or no antiplatelet therapy. The primary efficacy outcome was the hierarchical composite of death attributable to venous or arterial thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, clinically evident deep venous thrombosis, type 1 myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, systemic embolic event or acute limb ischemia, or clinically silent deep venous thrombosis, through hospital discharge or 28 days. The primary efficacy analyses included an unmatched win ratio and time-to-first event analysis while patients were on treatment. The primary safety outcome was fatal or life-threatening bleeding. The secondary safety outcome was moderate to severe bleeding. Recruitment was stopped early in March 2022 (≈50% planned recruitment) because of waning intensive care unit-level COVID-19 rates. RESULTS: At 34 centers in the United States, 390 patients were randomly assigned between anticoagulation strategies and 292 between antiplatelet strategies (382 and 290 in the on-treatment analyses). At randomization, 99% of patients required advanced respiratory therapy, including 15% requiring invasive mechanical ventilation; 40% required invasive ventilation during hospitalization. Comparing anticoagulation strategies, a greater proportion of wins occurred with full-dose anticoagulation (12.3%) versus standard-dose prophylactic anticoagulation (6.4%; win ratio, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.08-3.55]; P=0.028). Results were consistent in time-to-event analysis for the primary efficacy end point (full-dose versus standard-dose incidence 19/191 [9.9%] versus 29/191 [15.2%]; hazard ratio, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.32-0.99]; P=0.046). The primary safety end point occurred in 4 (2.1%) on full dose and in 1 (0.5%) on standard dose (P=0.19); the secondary safety end point occurred in 15 (7.9%) versus 1 (0.5%; P=0.002). There was no difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.56-1.48]; P=0.70). There were no differences in the primary efficacy or safety end points with clopidogrel versus no antiplatelet therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients with COVID-19, full-dose anticoagulation, but not clopidogrel, reduced thrombotic complications with an increase in bleeding, driven primarily by transfusions in hemodynamically stable patients, and no apparent excess in mortality. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04409834.

Long-Term Evolocumab in Patients With Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: In FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk), the proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitor evolocumab reduced low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and risk of cardiovascular events and was safe and well tolerated over a median of 2.2 years of follow-up. However, large-scale, long-term data are lacking. METHODS: The parent FOURIER trial randomized 27 564 patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and LDL-C ≥70 mg/dL on statin to evolocumab versus placebo. Patients completing FOURIER at participating sites were eligible to receive evolocumab in 2 open-label extension studies (FOURIER-OLE [FOURIER Open-Label Extension]) in the United States and Europe; primary analyses were pooled across studies. The primary end point was the incidence of adverse events. Lipid values and major adverse cardiovascular events were prospectively collected. RESULTS: A total of 6635 patients were enrolled in FOURIER-OLE (3355 randomized to evolocumab and 3280 to placebo in the parent study). Median follow-up in FOURIER-OLE was 5.0 years; maximum exposure to evolocumab in parent plus FOURIER-OLE was 8.4 years. At 12 weeks in FOURIER-OLE, median LDL-C was 30 mg/dL, and 63.2% of patients achieved LDL-C <40 mg/dL on evolocumab. Incidences of serious adverse events, muscle-related events, new-onset diabetes, hemorrhagic stroke, and neurocognitive events with evolocumab long term did not exceed those for placebo-treated patients during the parent study and did not increase over time. During the FOURIER-OLE follow-up period, patients originally randomized in the parent trial to evolocumab versus placebo had a 15% lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina or coronary revascularization (hazard ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.96]; P=0.008); a 20% lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.68-0.93]; P=0.003); and a 23% lower risk of cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.60-0.99]; P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term LDL-C lowering with evolocumab was associated with persistently low rates of adverse events for >8 years that did not exceed those observed in the original placebo arm during the parent study and led to further reductions in cardiovascular events compared with delayed treatment initiation. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifiers: NCT02867813 and NCT03080935.