Spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the international trade resilience during COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have created immeasurable health and economic crises, leading to unprecedented disruptions to world trade. The COVID-19 pandemic shows diverse impacts on different economies that suffer and recover at different rates and degrees. This research aims to evaluate the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of international trade network vulnerabilities in the current crisis to understand the global production resilience and prepare for the future crisis. We applied a series of complex network analysis approaches to the monthly international trade networks at the world, regional, and country scales for the pre- and post- COVID-19 outbreak period. The spatio-temporal patterns indicate that countries and regions with an effective COVID-19 containment such as East Asia show the strongest resilience, especially Mainland China, followed by high-income countries with fast vaccine roll-out (e.g., U.S.), whereas low-income countries (e.g., Africa) show high vulnerability. Our results encourage a comprehensive strategy to enhance international trade resilience when facing future pandemic threats including effective non-pharmaceutical measures, timely development and rollout of vaccines, strong governance capacity, robust healthcare systems, and equality via international cooperation. The overall findings elicit the hidden global trading disruption, recovery, and growth due to the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of Human Mobility on COVID-19 Transmission According to Mobility Distance, Location, and Demographic Factors in the Greater Bay Area of China: Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Mobility restriction was one of the primary measures used to restrain the spread of COVID-19 globally. Governments implemented and relaxed various mobility restriction measures in the absence of evidence for almost 3 years, which caused severe adverse outcomes in terms of health, society, and economy. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify the impact of mobility reduction on COVID-19 transmission according to mobility distance, location, and demographic factors in order to identify hotspots of transmission and guide public health policies. METHODS: Large volumes of anonymized aggregated mobile phone position data between January 1 and February 24, 2020, were collected for 9 megacities in the Greater Bay Area, China. A generalized linear model (GLM) was established to test the association between mobility volume (number of trips) and COVID-19 transmission. Subgroup analysis was also performed for sex, age, travel location, and travel distance. Statistical interaction terms were included in a variety of models that express different relations between involved variables. RESULTS: The GLM analysis demonstrated a significant association between the COVID-19 growth rate ratio (GR) and mobility volume. A stratification analysis revealed a higher effect of mobility volume on the COVID-19 GR among people aged 50-59 years (GR decrease of 13.17% per 10% reduction in mobility volume; P<.001) than among other age groups (GR decreases of 7.80%, 10.43%, 7.48%, 8.01%, and 10.43% for those aged ≤18, 19-29, 30-39, 40-49, and ≥60 years, respectively; P=.02 for the interaction). The impact of mobility reduction on COVID-19 transmission was higher for transit stations and shopping areas (instantaneous reproduction number [Rt] decreases of 0.67 and 0.53 per 10% reduction in mobility volume, respectively) than for workplaces, schools, recreation areas, and other locations (Rt decreases of 0.30, 0.37, 0.44, and 0.32, respectively; P=.02 for the interaction). The association between mobility volume reduction and COVID-19 transmission was lower with decreasing mobility distance as there was a significant interaction between mobility volume and mobility distance with regard to Rt (P<.001 for the interaction). Specifically, the percentage decreases in Rt per 10% reduction in mobility volume were 11.97% when mobility distance increased by 10% (Spring Festival), 6.74% when mobility distance remained unchanged, and 1.52% when mobility distance declined by 10%. CONCLUSIONS: The association between mobility reduction and COVID-19 transmission significantly varied according to mobility distance, location, and age. The substantially higher impact of mobility volume on COVID-19 transmission for longer travel distance, certain age groups, and specific travel locations highlights the potential to optimize the effectiveness of mobility restriction strategies. The results from our study demonstrate the power of having a mobility network using mobile phone data for surveillance that can monitor movement at a detailed level to measure the potential impacts of future pandemics.

COVID-19 lockdown introduces human mobility pattern changes for both Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area and the San Francisco bay area.

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, various countries have sought to control COVID-19 transmission by introducing non-pharmaceutical interventions. Restricting population mobility, by introducing social distancing, is one of the most widely used non-pharmaceutical interventions. Although similar population mobility restriction interventions were introduced, their impacts on COVID-19 transmission are often inconsistent across different regions and different time periods. These differences may provide critical information for tailoring COVID-19 control strategies. In this paper, anonymized high spatiotemporal resolution mobile-phone location data were employed to empirically analyze and quantify the impact of lockdowns on population mobility. Both the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in China and the San Francisco Bay Area (SBA) in the United States were studied. In response to the lockdowns, a general reduction in population mobility was observed, but the structural changes in mobility are very different between the two bays: 1) GBA mobility decreased by approximately 74.0-80.1% while the decrease of SBA was about 25.0-42.1%; 2) compared to SBA, the GBA had smoother volatility in daily volume during the lockdown. The volatility change indexes for GBA and SBA were 2.55% and 7.52%, respectively; 3) the effect of lockdown on short- to long-distance mobility was similar in GBA while the medium- and long-distance impact was more pronounced in SBA.

Effects of human mobility restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China: a modelling study using mobile phone data.

Background: Restricting human mobility is an effective strategy used to control disease spread. However, whether mobility restriction is a proportional response to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is unclear. We aimed to develop a model that can quantify the potential effects of various intracity mobility restrictions on the spread of COVID-19. Methods: In this modelling study, we used anonymous and aggregated mobile phone sightings data to build a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered transmission model for COVID-19 based on the city of Shenzhen, China. We simulated how disease spread changed when we varied the type and magnitude of mobility restrictions in different transmission scenarios, with variables such as the basic reproductive number (R 0), length of infectious period, and the number of initial cases. Findings: 331 COVID-19 cases distributed across the ten regions of Shenzhen were reported on Feb 7, 2020. In our basic scenario (R 0 of 2·68), mobility reduction of 20-60% within the city had a notable effect on controlling COVID-19 spread: a flattening of the peak number of cases by 33% (95% UI 21-42) and delay to the peak number by 2 weeks with a 20% restriction, 66% (48-75) reduction and 4 week delay with a 40% restriction, and 91% (79-95) reduction and 14 week delay with a 60% restriction. The effects of mobility restriction were increased when combined with reductions of 25% or 50% in transmissibility of the virus. In specific analyses of mobility restrictions for individuals with symptomatic infections and for high-risk regions, these measures also had substantial effects on reducing the spread of COVID-19. For example, the peak of the epidemic was delayed by 2 weeks if the proportion of individuals with symptomatic infections who could move freely was maintained at 20%, and by 4 weeks if two high-risk regions were locked down. The simulation results were also affected by various transmission parameters. Interpretation: Our model shows the effects of various types and magnitudes of mobility restrictions on controlling COVID-19 outbreaks at the city level in Shenzhen, China. The model could help policy makers to establish the optimal combinations of mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially to assess the potential positive effects of mobility restriction on public health in view of the potential negative economic and societal effects. Funding: Guangdong Medical Science Fund, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

A Peak Traffic Congestion Prediction Method Based on Bus Driving Time.

Road traffic congestion has a large impact on travel. The accurate prediction of traffic congestion has become a hot topic in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Recently, a variety of traffic congestion prediction methods have been proposed. However, most approaches focus on floating car data, and the prediction accuracy is often unstable due to large fluctuations in floating speed. Targeting these challenges, we propose a method of traffic congestion prediction based on bus driving time (TCP-DT) using long short-term memory (LSTM) technology. Firstly, we collected a total of 66,228 bus driving records from 50 buses for 66 working days in Guangzhou, China. Secondly, the actual and standard bus driving times were calculated by processing the buses' GPS trajectories and bus station data. Congestion time is defined as the interval between actual and standard driving time. Thirdly, congestion time prediction based on LSTM (T-LSTM) was adopted to predict future bus congestion times. Finally, the congestion index and classification (CI-C) model was used to calculate the congestion indices and classify the level of congestion into five categories according to three classification methods. Our experimental results show that the T-LSTM model can effectively predict the congestion time of six road sections at different time periods, and the average mean absolute percentage error ( M A P E ¯ ) and root mean square error ( R M S E ¯ ) of prediction are 11.25% and 14.91 in the morning peak, and 12.3% and 14.57 in the evening peak, respectively. The TCP-DT method can effectively predict traffic congestion status and provide a driving route with the least congestion time for vehicles.

Developing Subdomain Allocation Algorithms Based on Spatial and Communicational Constraints to Accelerate Dust Storm Simulation.

Dust storm has serious disastrous impacts on environment, human health, and assets. The developments and applications of dust storm models have contributed significantly to better understand and predict the distribution, intensity and structure of dust storms. However, dust storm simulation is a data and computing intensive process. To improve the computing performance, high performance computing has been widely adopted by dividing the entire study area into multiple subdomains and allocating each subdomain on different computing nodes in a parallel fashion. Inappropriate allocation may introduce imbalanced task loads and unnecessary communications among computing nodes. Therefore, allocation is a key factor that may impact the efficiency of parallel process. An allocation algorithm is expected to consider the computing cost and communication cost for each computing node to minimize total execution time and reduce overall communication cost for the entire simulation. This research introduces three algorithms to optimize the allocation by considering the spatial and communicational constraints: 1) an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) based algorithm from combinational optimization perspective; 2) a K-Means and Kernighan-Lin combined heuristic algorithm (K&K) integrating geometric and coordinate-free methods by merging local and global partitioning; 3) an automatic seeded region growing based geometric and local partitioning algorithm (ASRG). The performance and effectiveness of the three algorithms are compared based on different factors. Further, we adopt the K&K algorithm as the demonstrated algorithm for the experiment of dust model simulation with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM-dust) and compared the performance with the MPI default sequential allocation. The results demonstrate that K&K method significantly improves the simulation performance with better subdomain allocation. This method can also be adopted for other relevant atmospheric and numerical modeling.

A New Model for a Carpool Matching Service.

Carpooling is an effective means of reducing traffic. A carpool team shares a vehicle for their commute, which reduces the number of vehicles on the road during rush hour periods. Carpooling is officially sanctioned by most governments, and is supported by the construction of high-occupancy vehicle lanes. A number of carpooling services have been designed in order to match commuters into carpool teams, but it known that the determination of optimal carpool teams is a combinatorially complex problem, and therefore technological solutions are difficult to achieve. In this paper, a model for carpool matching services is proposed, and both optimal and heuristic approaches are tested to find solutions for that model. The results show that different solution approaches are preferred over different ranges of problem instances. Most importantly, it is demonstrated that a new formulation and associated solution procedures can permit the determination of optimal carpool teams and routes. An instantiation of the model is presented (using the street network of Guangzhou city, China) to demonstrate how carpool teams can be determined.

A service brokering and recommendation mechanism for better selecting cloud services.

Cloud computing is becoming the new generation computing infrastructure, and many cloud vendors provide different types of cloud services. How to choose the best cloud services for specific applications is very challenging. Addressing this challenge requires balancing multiple factors, such as business demands, technologies, policies and preferences in addition to the computing requirements. This paper recommends a mechanism for selecting the best public cloud service at the levels of Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) and Platform as a Service (PaaS). A systematic framework and associated workflow include cloud service filtration, solution generation, evaluation, and selection of public cloud services. Specifically, we propose the following: a hierarchical information model for integrating heterogeneous cloud information from different providers and a corresponding cloud information collecting mechanism; a cloud service classification model for categorizing and filtering cloud services and an application requirement schema for providing rules for creating application-specific configuration solutions; and a preference-aware solution evaluation mode for evaluating and recommending solutions according to the preferences of application providers. To test the proposed framework and methodologies, a cloud service advisory tool prototype was developed after which relevant experiments were conducted. The results show that the proposed system collects/updates/records the cloud information from multiple mainstream public cloud services in real-time, generates feasible cloud configuration solutions according to user specifications and acceptable cost predication, assesses solutions from multiple aspects (e.g., computing capability, potential cost and Service Level Agreement, SLA) and offers rational recommendations based on user preferences and practical cloud provisioning; and visually presents and compares solutions through an interactive web Graphical User Interface (GUI).