Recent advances in predicting acute mountain sickness: from multidimensional cohort studies to cutting-edge model applications.

High-altitude illnesses, encompassing a spectrum of health threats including Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS), pose significant challenges to individuals exposed to high altitude environments, necessitating effective prophylaxis and immediate management. Given the variability in individual responses to these conditions, accurate prediction of high-altitude illnesses onset is of paramount importance. This review systematically consolidates recent advancements in research on predicting AMS by evaluating existing cohort data, predictive models, and methodologies, while also delving into the application of emerging technologies. Through a thorough analysis of scholarly literature, we discuss traditional prediction methods anchored in physiological parameters (e.g., heart rate, respiratory frequency, blood pressure) and biochemical markers, as well as the integration and utility of novel technologies such as biosensors, genetic testing, and artificial intelligence within high-altitude prediction research. While conventional pre-diction techniques have been extensively used, they are often constrained by limitations in accuracy, reliability, and multifactorial influences. The advent of these innovative technologies holds promise for more precise individual risk assessments and personalized preventive and therapeutic strategies across various forms of AMS. Future research endeavors must pivot decisively towards the meticulous identification and stringent validation of innovative predictive biomarkers and models. This strategic re-direction should catalyze intensified interdisciplinary cooperation to significantly deepen our mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of AMS while refining existing prediction methodologies. These groundbreaking advancements harbor the potential to fundamentally transform preventive and therapeutic frameworks for high-altitude illnesses, ultimately securing augmented safety standards and wellbeing for individuals operating at elevated altitudes with far-reaching global implications.

Spatiotemporal variation in the blood lead levels of Chinese children with the environmental Kuznets curve trend.

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is often used to analyze the relationship between environmental pollution health indicators and economic development level in different regions. In developed countries, the blood lead levels (BLLs) of children have been declining fitting the EKC since the 1970s. However, such figures in China have remained at relatively high levels, without any obvious decline, since 2010. We explored spatial variations and graded countermeasures using reported data on BLLs including the lead poisoning rates (LPRs) of children. We found that there were prefectures where either the mean BLLs of the children had reached 100.00 µg/L or the LPRs of more than 40% of the children had reached 100 µg/L. When we reduced the average BLLs to 50 µg/L or lowered the proportion of children with a lead poisoning rate (LPR) above 100 µg/L to 10.00%, the EKC trend decreased, and the linear slope after 2010 became -0.202. If the areas where children's BLLs exceeded 50.00 µg/L or the proportion of children with an LPR above 100 µg/L was more than 10.00% will be controlled, the linear slope of the EKC decrease trend after 2010 will became -0.989, and the national average of children's BLLs would decline by 22.17%. The study concluded that children's BLLs in different regions of China are situated at different EKC stages, and urgent prevention and control strategies must be put in place for undeveloped areas.

Heavy element contents of vegetables and health-risk assessment in China.

This study analyzed five heavy elements (HEs), including cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and arsenic (As), in fresh vegetables (i.e., legume, rhizome and potato, gourd, bulb, solanaceous fruit, leafy, and brassica; total: 7214) collected from 31 provinces in China from 2016 to the first half of 2017. By analyzing the concentration level of the five HEs in seven regions (the Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Central China, the Northwest, and the Southwest), except for As, average HEs concentrations were higher in the Southwest than that in the other six regions. According to the maximum permissible limit (MPL), the highest rate of HEs concentration above the MPL was found in the Southwest (11.038%). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed varying degrees of variability between regions and categories. By using principal component analysis (PCA), it was found that two principal components account for 73.79% of the total variance in the data. Together with hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), concluded that Tibet was significantly different from the other 30 provinces. By calculating estimated daily intake (EDI) and the target hazard quotient (THQ), the EDI of Cr in the Southwest was the highest, with results of 1.2119 µg/kg/day for children and 0.8073 µg/kg/day for adults. North China had the highest total target hazard quotient (TTHQ) for HEs in vegetables ingested by children, with a result of 0.933.

Uneven development of the lead industry leads to regional differences in blood lead levels of children.

Children's exposure to lead is a global health problem, especially in low- and middle-income countries. However, research on the relationship between children's blood lead levels (BLLs) and the development of the lead industry is still limited. This study examined whether children's BLLs were associated with the development of lead industry in different regions. Using survey data on the BLLs of children living in 250 prefectures in China with corresponding data on their economic factors and lead industries, we explored the regional variation of children's BLLs using statistical methods. The results show that the level of economic development in leaded areas was associated with inequity in children's BLLs and met the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. In areas without lead industries, there was little correlation between the level of economic development and the BLLs of children and thus the environmental Kuznets hypothesis was not supported. Lead mines, lead smelting and chemical companies are major sources of blood lead in children living in leaded areas. This study demonstrated the success of control policies for lead-acid battery manufacturers in promoting the prevention and control of childhood lead poisoning in China. China should consciously support the improvement of children's BLLs in undeveloped areas with lead industries through national financing and policies to avoid the continuous effects of the regional inequality problem of high children's BLLs.

Heavy metal accumulation and health risk assessment of crayfish in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River during 2015-2017.

This study performed statistical analysis and risk assessment of five heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Pb) in crayfish samples collected from six provinces in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River during 2015-2017. The Spearman correlation test and the results of hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) indicated that As, Pb, and Cd in crayfish were significantly correlated, and the results of HCA showed that Jiangxi, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang were clustered into one group; Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui were clustered into another group; and provinces in the same group had spatial similarities in heavy metals. The pollution index (PI) values of five heavy metals in all provinces were below 1, implying that crayfish samples in this area were not highly contaminated. The target hazard quotient (THQ) values of five heavy metals were mainly below 1 except Hg in Anhui (2.9709), which was far beyond 1, indicating that the health risk posed by Hg exposure should not be ignored in Anhui.

Spatial heterogeneity of bacillary dysentery and the impact of temperature in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China.

Previous studies indicate that the incidence of bacillary dysentery is closely related to meteorological factors. However, the impact of temperature and the spatial heterogeneity of the disease in regions of unbalanced socioeconomic development remains unclear. Therefore, this research collected data for 29,639 daily bacillary dysentery cases in children under 5 years of age, as well as the meteorological variables from China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, to analyze the spatial pattern of bacillary dysentery and reveal its nonlinear association with temperature. The SatScan method was employed first, to detect the spatial heterogeneity of the disease risk, and then the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the relationships between the daily minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures and bacillary dysentery in the stratified heterogeneous regions. The results indicated that bacillary dysentery incidence presented statistically significant spatial heterogeneity. The area of highest risk was found to be Beijing and its neighboring regions, which have high population densities. There was also a positive association between bacillary dysentery and temperature. Hotter temperatures were accompanied by higher relative risks. In the most likely spatial cluster region, the excess risk (ER) values for a 1°C rise in minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures above the median were 4.65%, 11.30%, and 19.21%, respectively. The effect of temperature on bacillary dysentery peaked at a lag of 3 to 4 days. The findings of this study will aid risk assessments and early warning systems for bacillary dysentery.

Regional characteristics of children's blood lead levels in China: A systematic synthesis of national and subnational population data.

The blood lead levels (BLLs) of children in China remain notably high in many areas. We aimed to summarise the relevant regional characteristics, identifying problematic areas and the causes of lead pollution. We searched the databases of PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Wanfang Data, systematically reviewing 219 articles published from January 2010 to September 2020. In doing so, we assessed the BLLs noted in 220 prefectures across China. Data were organised using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping. Out of a total of 629,627 children sampled, we found that the average blood lead level (BLL) of children included in our study is 50.61 ± 13.63 µg/L, which slightly exceeds the 50.00 µg/L US standard. Within the sample, 8.75% had BLLs higher than 100.00 µg/L. Children living in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Anhui, Fujian, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Guangxi had notably high BLLs, at more than 60.00 µg/L. A total of 112 municipalities had an average children's BLL above 50.00 µg/L. Furthermore, Chenzhou, Linfen, Yuncheng, and Hechi had the highest children's BLLs, with average values above 100.00 µg/L. The leading contributors to lead pollution are lead mining, lead recovery and the smelting industry. Nonetheless, the lead-acid battery industry needs more attention. Although data suggest that BLLs are decreasing in China, many areas still have high BLLs that need to be monitored. Moreover, national standards must improve to decrease acceptable BLL thresholds for children.

Heavy metal concentrations in aquatic organisms (fishes, shrimp and crabs) and health risk assessment in China.

This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of heavy metals in 6746 samples of aquatic organisms (fishes, shrimp and crabs), to make health risk assessments of six heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg and Pb). The results indicated that there were significant differences of heavy metal concentrations between different groups of aquatic organisms, months and provinces. The concentrations of Cd, Cr, Hg and Pb varied greatly within one year, with levels higher in summer and autumn, and lower in spring and winter. Crabs in Shandong, Shanxi, Zhejiang and Shanghai posed a high risk of Cd exposure, with the average Cd level exceeding the limit set by China (0.5 mg/kg, w.w.). In addition, the average TRCd value in sea crab was greater than 10-4, indicating a high cancer risk. However, the average THQ values of the six metals were all below 1 in China, and there was no overall non-carcinogenic risk.

Heavy metals in aquatic products and the health risk assessment to population in China.

In this paper, a total of 62,712 aquatic product samples were collected from 32 provinces of China during 2015-2017. By analyzing the spatial distributions and non-parametric tests of five heavy metals (lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), and arsenic (As)) in four aquatic product (fish (n = 44,353), shrimp (n = 8453), crab (n = 5367), and shellfish (n = 4539)), it was found that the concentrations of the five heavy metals in the same aquatic product are significantly different in different regions. Furthermore, we calculated daily estimated intake (EDI) of each of the five heavy metals and assessed non-cancer risk and cancer risk using target hazard quotient (THQ) and target cancer risk (TR), respectively. The results showed that for mean exposure levels, the THQ values in four aquatic products were all below one, meaning that there was no non-carcinogenic risk. For high exposure levels, the hazard index (HI) value exceeded one in fish in North China, which means the potential non-carcinogenic risk should not be ignored. As for cadmium, most of the TR values in crab and shellfish exceed 1 × 10-4 in North China, East China, and South China. For chromium, except for Northeast China, the TR values in fish in other regions exceed 1 × 10-4; it indicated that the cancer risk caused by cadmium or chromium should not be ignored.

Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), predominantly occurs among infants and children. Previous studies have shown that suitable, stable temperatures favor HFMD virus reproduction; however, temperature fluctuations also affect virus transmission, and there are, so far, no studies concerning the association between such fluctuations and the incidence of HFMD. The objective of this study was to map the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD incidence and quantify the long-term effects of temperature fluctuations on HFMD incidence in children. HFMD cases in children under five, from January 2009 to December 2013, in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces of China, were used in this study. The GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy models were employed to explore the spatial-temporal association between temperature fluctuations and HFMD incidence. The results indicate that HFMD incidence had significant spatial stratified heterogeneity (GeoDetector q-statistic = 0.83, p < 0.05), and that areas with higher risk mainly appeared in metropolises and their adjacent regions. HFMD transmission was negatively associated with temperature fluctuations. A 1 °C increase in the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures was associated with decreases of 8.22% and 11.87% in the risk of HFMD incidence, respectively. The study suggests that large temperature fluctuations affect virus growth or multiplication, thereby inhibiting the activity of the virus and potentially even leading to its extinction, and consequently affecting the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD. The findings can serve as a reference for the practical control of this disease and offer help in the rational allocation of medical resources.

Spatial heterogeneity of the association between temperature and hand, foot, and mouth disease risk in metropolitan and other areas.

Interest in assessing the effects of temperature on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has increased. However, little evidence is available on spatial heterogeneity in relationship to temperature and HFMD in metropolitan (capital city and municipal districts) and other areas where economic levels are significantly different. In this study, the Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was applied to identify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HFMD. GeoDetector was then used to quantify the determinant power of temperature to the disease in regions where the economic level has significant spatial heterogeneity. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the influence of temperature on the incidence of HFMD in metropolitan and other areas. In metropolitan areas, where the disease risk is higher (hot spots), the HFMD incidence was higher alongside an increase in average temperature. However, in non-metropolitan areas, where the disease risk is lower (cold spots), there was an approximately S-shaped relationship between the temperature and the HFMD risk. More specifically, when the temperature was >25 °C, the HFMD incidence no longer increased monotonically with the increasing temperature. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the effects of temperature on the HFMD incidence in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. This finding may serve as a suggestion and basis for the surveillance and control of this disease and it is conducive to the rational allocation of medical resources in different areas.

Regional characteristics of cadmium intake in adult residents from the 4th and 5th Chinese Total Diet Study.

Cadmium (Cd) is a heavy metal known to be harmful to human health. The aim of this study was to analyze the regional characteristics of dietary Cd intake of adult male residents in different regions of China. The value of this research is to guide regional consumers to minimize Cd intake by adjusting diets for different food categories in various regions. Dietary Cd intake data is used from the 4th and 5th Chinese Total Diet Studies (CTDS). The 4th CTDS collected data from 12 provinces, covering about 50% of the Chinese population. The 5th CTDS collected data from 20 provinces, covering about 67% of the Chinese population. Over 200 kinds of foods were sampled and divided into 13 categories and organized by geographic information system (GIS) mapping. The results showed that firstly, the dietary Cd intake of Chinese residents has increased; secondly, the food groups with the highest Cd intake were cereals and vegetables; and thirdly, the main food group of dietary Cd intake in different regions is presented such as cereals in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, and Guangxi and vegetables in Shanghai, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang. Lastly, the food product with the highest dietary Cd intake concentration was found to be nori in 5 provinces. The other notable foods, with Cd intake, included peanuts, rice, squid, cuttlefish, and mushrooms.

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of hand, foot and mouth disease and impact of meteorological factors in arid/ semi-arid regions: a case study in Ningxia, China.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) varies over space and time and this variability is related to climate and social-economic factors. Majority of studies on HFMD were carried out in humid regions while few have focused on the disease in arid/semi-arid regions, more research in such climates would potentially make the mechanism of HFMD transmission clearer under different climate conditions. METHODS: In this paper, we explore spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD in Ningxia province, which has an arid/semi-arid climate in northwest China. We first employed a Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) to assess the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the HFMD cases and its relationship with meteorological factors in Ningxia from 2009 to 2013, then used a novel spatial statistical software package GeoDetector to test the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD risk. RESULTS: The results showed that the spatial relative risks in northern part of Ningxia were higher than those in the south. The highest temporal risk of HFMD incidence was in fall season, with a secondary peak in spring. Meteorological factors, such as average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed played significant roles in the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD risk. CONCLUSIONS: The study provide valuable information on HFMD distribution in arid/semi-arid areas in northwest China and facilitate understanding of the concentration of HFMD.

The lag effect of water pollution on the mortality rate for esophageal cancer in a rapidly industrialized region in China.

The Huai River basin (located in eastern China) has a population of 180 million and has the highest risk of esophageal cancer (EC) mortality in China. Some studies found that contaminants in drinking water are a major risk factor for cancers of the digestive system. However, the effect of water pollution in the historical period on the current EC mortality remains unclear. Data were collected on the EC mortality rate in 2004 in the Huai River basin in 11 counties, and data on the surface water quality in the region from 1987 to 2004 were used. The Pearson correlation and the GeoDetector q-statistic were employed to explore the association between water pollution and the EC mortality rate in different lag periods, from linear and nonlinear perspectives, respectively. The study showed apparently spatial heterogeneity of the EC mortality rate in the region. The EC mortality rate downstream is significantly higher than that in other regions; in the midstream, the region north of the mainstream has a lower average mortality rate than that south of the area. Upstream, the region north of the mainstream has a higher mortality rate than that in the southern area. The spatial pattern was formed under the influence of water pollution in the historical period. 1996, 1997, and 1998 have the strongest linear or nonlinear effect on the EC mortality rate in 2004, in which the Pearson correlation coefficient and the q-statistic were the highest, 0.79 and 0.89, respectively. Rapid industrialization in the past 20 years has caused environmental problems and poses related health risks. The study indicated that the current EC mortality rate was mainly caused by water pollution from the previous 8 years. The findings provide knowledge about the lag time for pollution effects on the EC mortality rate, and can contribute to the controlling and preventing esophageal cancer.

Regional characteristics of dietary lead intake in the Chinese population.

Lead is known as a potent toxicant to human health and there is currently an issue with lead contamination of food in China. This study analysed the regional characteristics of dietary lead intake of the Chinese population and used this to assess the health risks for each region due to the presence of lead in different foods. Data of dietary lead intake was used from the 4th and 5th Chinese Total Diet Studies (CTDS) covering 12 to 20 provinces. Over 200 kinds of food samples were divided and analysed. Results showed that lead consumption varies from region to region, with some, such as Heibei, being at higher risk and consuming larger amounts, and others, such as Shanxi, being at lower risk. It was found that the spatial correlation between lead intake from meats and vegetables was 0.545. The strong association between meats and vegetables shows that lead contamination has a large effect on fresh foods. The food groups with the highest contribution to lead intake were cereals and vegetables, while the food categories with the lowest contribution were dairy products, sugar, and alcohol. The main food group contributing to lead intake in different regions was found to be cereals in Hebei, vegetables in Heilongjiang and Ningxia, and meats in Sichuan and Hunan. The food products contributing the most to lead intake were found to be kelp and nori in many provinces and other notable foods included processed and preserved soybean, meat, and fungus products. These results allow policy makers to better target their efforts when working on the issue of lead contamination, focusing on areas of high contamination, and to advise consumers to adjust their diets to avoid high risk foods as this issue is being resolved.

Spatiotemporal decomposition and risk determinants of hand, foot and mouth disease in Henan, China.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remains an increasing public health concern. The spatiotemporal variation of HFMD can be represented from multiple-perspectives, and it may be driven by different dominant factors. In this study, the HFMD cases in children under the age of five years in each county in Henan province, China, from 2009 to 2013 were assessed to explore the integrative spatiotemporal patterns of HFMD and investigate their driving factors. The empirical orthogonal function was applied to identify representative spatiotemporal patterns. Then, GeoDetector was used to quantify the determinant powers of driving factors to the disease. The results indicated that the most prominent spatiotemporal pattern explained 56.21% of the total variance, presented in big cities, e.g. capital city and municipal districts. The dominant factors of this pattern were per capita gross domestic product and relative humidity, with determinant powers of 62% and 42%, respectively. The secondary spatiotemporal pattern explained 10.52% of the total variance, presented in the counties around big cities. The dominant factors for this pattern were the ratio of urban to rural population and precipitation, with determinant powers of 26% and 41%, respectively. These findings unveiled the key spatiotemporal features and their determinants related to the disease; this will be helpful in establishing accurate spatiotemporal preventing of HFMD.

Space-time heterogeneity of hand, foot and mouth disease in children and its potential driving factors in Henan, China.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a substantial threat recently. However few studies have quantified spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HFMD and detected spatiotemporal interactive effect of potential driving factors on this disease. METHODS: Using GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy model, we characterized the epidemiology of HFMD in Henan, one of the largest population provinces in China, from 2012 to 2013, and quantified the impacts of potential driving factors. RESULTS: Notably, 21.43 and 24.60% counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Spatially, the hotspots were mainly clustered in regions where the economic level was high. Temporally, the highest incidence period of HFMD was discovered to be in late spring and early summer. The impact of meteorological and socio-economic factors on the disease are significant, and this study found that a 1 °C rise in temperature was related to an increase of 4.09% in the HFMD incidence, a 1% increment in relative humidity was associated with a 1.77% increase of the disease, and a 1% increment in ratio of urban to rural population was associated with a 0.16% increase of the disease. CONCLUSION: Meteorological and socio-economic factors presented significantly association with HFMD incidence, high-risk mainly appeared in large cities and their adjacent regions in hot and humid season. These findings will be helpful for HFMD risk control and disease-prevention policies implementation.

A Bayesian Approach to Real-Time Monitoring and Forecasting of Chinese Foodborne Diseases.

Foodborne diseases have a big impact on public health and are often underreported. This is because a lot of patients delay treatment when they suffer from foodborne diseases. In Hunan Province (China), a total of 21,226 confirmed foodborne disease cases were reported from 1 March 2015 to 28 February 2016 by the Foodborne Surveillance Database (FSD) of the China National Centre for Food Safety Risk Assessment (CFSA). The purpose of this study was to make use of the daily number of visiting patients to forecast the daily true number of patients. Our main contribution is that we take the reporting delays into consideration and propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for this forecast problem. The data shows that there were 21,226 confirmed cases reported among 21,866 visiting patients, a proportion as high as 97%. Given this observation, the Bayesian hierarchical model was established to predict the daily true number of patients using the number of visiting patients. We propose several scoring rules to assess the performance of different nowcasting procedures. We conclude that Bayesian nowcasting with consideration of right truncation of the reporting delays has a good performance for short-term forecasting, and could effectively predict the epidemic trends of foodborne diseases. Meanwhile, this approach could provide a methodological basis for future foodborne disease monitoring and control strategies, which are crucial for public health.

Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China.

Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.

Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China.

BACKGROUND: Bacillary dysentery is the third leading notifiable disease and remains a major public health concern in China. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban region is the biggest urban agglomeration in northern China, and it is one of the areas in the country that is most heavily infected with bacillary dysentery. The objective of the study was to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and to determine any contributory risk factors on the bacillary dysentery. METHODS: Bacillary dysentery case data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei were employed. GeoDetector method was used to determine the impact of potential risk factors, and to identify regions and seasons at high risk of the disease. RESULTS: There were 36,472 cases of bacillary dysentery in 2012 in the study region. The incidence of bacillary dysentery varies widely amongst different age groups; the higher incidence of bacillary dysentery mainly occurs in the population under the age of five. Bacillary dysentery presents apparent seasonal variance, with the highest incidence occurring from June to September. In terms of the potential meteorological risk factors, mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, mean wind speed and sunshine hours explain the time variant of bacillary dysentery at 83%, 31%, 25%, 17% and 13%, respectively. The interactive effect between temperature and humidity has an explanatory power of 87%, indicating that a hot and humid environment is more likely to lead to the occurrence of bacillary dysentery. Socio-economic factors affect the spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery. The top four factors are age group, per capita GDP, population density and rural population proportion, and their determinant powers are 61%, 27%, 25% and 21%, respectively. The interactive effect between age group and the other factors accounts for more than 60% of bacillary dysentery transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Bacillary dysentery poses a higher risk in the population of children. It is affected by meteorological and socio-economic factors, and it is necessary to pay more attention to the meteorological period and situation, particularly in period with high temperature and humidity, as well as places in urban areas with high population density, and a low proportion of rural population.