Risk factors of in-hospital mortality and discriminating capacity of NIVO score in exacerbations of COPD requiring noninvasive ventilation.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) is recommended as the initial mode of ventilation to treat acute respiratory failure in patients with AECOPD. The Noninvasive Ventilation Outcomes (NIVO) score has been proposed to evaluate the prognosis in patients with AECOPD requiring assisted NIV. However, it is not validated in Chinese patients. METHODS: We used data from the MAGNET AECOPD Registry study, which is a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter, real-world study conducted between September 2017 and July 2021 in China. Data for the potential risk factors of mortality were collected and the NIVO score was calculated, and the in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the NIVO risk score. RESULTS: A total of 1164 patients were included in the study, and 57 patients (4.9%) died during their hospital stay. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥75 years, DBP <60 mmHg, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤14, anemia and BUN >7 mmol/L were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The in-hospital mortality was associated with an increase in the risk level of NIVO score and the difference was statistically significant (p < .001). The NIVO risk score showed an acceptable accuracy for predicting the in-hospital mortality in AECOPD requiring assisted NIV (AUC: 0.657, 95% CI: 0.584-0.729, p < .001). CONCLUSION: Our findings identified predictors of mortality in patients with AECOPD receiving NIV, providing useful information to identify severe patients and guide the management of AECOPD. The NIVO score showed an acceptable predictive value for AECOPD receiving NIV in Chinese patients, and additional studies are needed to develop and validate predictive scores based on specific populations.

Characteristics, treatments, in-hospital and long-term outcomes among inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China: sex differences in a large cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data related to the characteristics, treatments and clinical outcomes of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients in China are limited, and sex differences are still a neglected topic. METHODS: The patients hospitalized for AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from ten medical centers in China between September 2017 and July 2021. Patients from some centers received follow-up for 3 years. Data regarding the characteristics, treatments and in-hospital and long-term clinical outcomes from male and female AECOPD patients included in the cohort were analyzed and compared. RESULTS: In total, 14,007 patients with AECOPD were included in the study, and 11,020 (78.7%) were males. Compared with males, female patients were older (74.02 ± 10.79 vs. 71.86 ± 10.23 years, P < 0.001), and had more comorbidities (2.22 ± 1.64 vs. 1.73 ± 1.56, P < 0.001), a higher frequency of altered mental status (5.0% vs. 2.9%, P < 0.001), lower diastolic blood pressure (78.04 ± 12.96 vs. 79.04 ± 12.47 mmHg, P < 0.001). In addition, there were also significant sex differences in a range of laboratory and radiographic findings. Females were more likely to receive antibiotics, high levels of respiratory support and ICU admission than males. The in-hospital and 3-year mortality were not significantly different between males and females (1.4% vs. 1.5%, P = 0.711; 35.3% vs. 31.4%, P = 0.058), while female smokers with AECOPD had higher in-hospital mortality than male smokers (3.3% vs. 1.2%, P = 0.002) and male smokers exhibited a trend toward higher 3-year mortality compared to female smokers (40.7% vs. 33.1%, P = 0.146). CONCLUSIONS: In AECOPD inpatients, females and males had similar in-hospital and long-term survival despite some sex differences in clinical characteristics and treatments, but female smokers had significantly worse in-hospital outcomes than male smokers. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered, registration number is ChiCTR2100044625, date of registration 21/03/2021. URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626 .

A simple clinical risk score (ABCDMP) for predicting mortality in patients with AECOPD and cardiovascular diseases.

BACKGROUND: The morbidity and mortality among hospital inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs remains unacceptably high. Currently, no risk score for predicting mortality has been specifically developed in patients with AECOPD and CVDs. We therefore aimed to derive and validate a simple clinical risk score to assess individuals' risk of poor prognosis. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs in a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter cohort study. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify the independent prognostic risk factors and created a risk score model according to patients' data from a derivation cohort. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The model was validated and compared with the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF and NIVO models in a validation cohort. RESULTS: We derived a combined risk score, the ABCDMP score, that included the following variables: age > 75 years, BUN > 7 mmol/L, consolidation, diastolic blood pressure ≤ 60 mmHg, mental status altered, and pulse > 109 beats/min. Discrimination (AUC 0.847, 95% CI, 0.805-0.890) and calibration (Hosmer‒Lemeshow statistic, P = 0.142) were good in the derivation cohort and similar in the validation cohort (AUC 0.811, 95% CI, 0.755-0.868). The ABCDMP score had significantly better predictivity for in-hospital mortality than the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF, and NIVO scores (all P < 0.001). Additionally, the new score also had moderate predictive performance for 3-year mortality and can be used to stratify patients into different management groups. CONCLUSIONS: The ABCDMP risk score could help predict mortality in AECOPD and CVDs patients and guide further clinical research on risk-based treatment. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trail Registry NO.:ChiCTR2100044625; URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626 .