A novel approach for quantitatively distinguishing between anthropogenic and natural effects on paleovegetation.

How to distinguish and quantify past human impacts on vegetation is a significant challenge in paleoecology. Here, we propose a novel method, the error inflection point-discriminant technique. It finds out the inflection points (IPs) of the regression errors of pollen-climate transfer functions using modern pollen spectra from vegetation with different values of the Human Influence Index (HII), which represent the HII threshold values of native/secondary and secondary/artificial vegetation systems. Our results show that the HII value at the native/secondary vegetation IPs is approximately 22 and globally uniform, whereas it varies regionally for the secondary/artificial vegetation IPs. In a case study of the Liangzhu archaeological site in the lower Yangtze River, discriminant functions for pollen spectra from three vegetation types and pollen-climate transfer functions of the native vegetation were established to reconstruct paleovegetation and paleoclimate over the past 6,600 years. Our study demonstrates this method's feasibility for quantitatively distinguishing human impacts on paleovegetation and assessing quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions using pollen data.

Human activities have reduced plant diversity in eastern China over the last two millennia.

Understanding the history and regional singularities of human impact on vegetation is key to developing strategies for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, fossil and modern pollen datasets from China are employed to investigate temporal changes in pollen composition, analogue quality, and pollen diversity during the Holocene. Anthropogenic disturbance and vegetation's responses are also assessed. Results reveal that pollen assemblages from non-forest communities fail to provide evidence of human impact for the western part of China (annual precipitation less than 400 mm and/or elevation more than 3000 m.a.s.l.), as inferred from the stable quality of modern analogues, principal components, and diversity of species and communities throughout the Holocene. For the eastern part of China, the proportion of fossil pollen spectra with good modern analogues increases from ca. 50% to ca. 80% during the last 2 millennia, indicating an enhanced intensity of anthropogenic disturbance on vegetation. This disturbance has caused the pollen spectra to become taxonomically less diverse over space (reduced abundances of arboreal taxa and increased abundances of herbaceous taxa), highlighting a reduced south-north differentiation and divergence from past vegetation between regions in the eastern part of China. We recommend that care is taken in eastern China when basing the development of ecosystem management strategies on vegetation changes in the region during the last 2000 years, since humans have significantly disturbed the vegetation during this period.

Holocene dust storm variations over northern China: transition from a natural forcing to an anthropogenic forcing.

Asian dust storms have long been a major environmental concern in China, affecting the lives of about one billion people. However, it is unclear whether the mechanisms responsible for Asian dust storms during the Holocene varied on different timescales, and thus it is unclear whether there was a shift from a natural forcing to an anthropogenic forcing of dust storms. We reconstructed a high-resolution Holocene record of dust storms from the sediments of an undisturbed alpine lake on the Chinese Loess Plateau. We found that Asian dust storm activity generally increased during the Holocene, with the largest fluctuations occurring during the past 2000 years. The increase in dust storm activity was in contrast to the decrease in East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity during the Holocene, indicating that the EAWM played a limited role in modulating dust storms. By contrast, the increase in dust storms corresponded to a decrease in EASM precipitation. This demonstrates that EASM precipitation was the dominant control of dust storm activity on a millennial timescale, because decreased EASM precipitation expanded the desert area and thus increased the dust storm activity. The increasing intensity of human activity in the region since the Bronze Age resulted in an acceleration of dust storm activity against the background of decreased EASM precipitation. As human disturbance continued to intensify, beginning at least at ~2 cal ka BP, increased dust storms were closely linked to increasing human populations in the dust source regions, and there is a strong temporal coherence between increased dust storms and higher EASM precipitation. This was completely different from when natural processes are dominant. During that period, fewer dust storms occurred during periods of a strengthened EASM. Therefore, there was a shift from a natural forcing to an anthropogenic forcing of dust storms on a multi-decadal to centennial timescale, and was a mode in which "human activity overtook the EASM as the dominant control of the Earth surface system".

Holocene vegetation-hydrology-climate interactions of wetlands on the Heixiazi Island, China.

An integrated view of wetland's evolution is currently poorly understood due to a lack of knowledge on long-term interactions of multiple ecological factors. Here, we present a cored palynological record covering the Holocene Epoch from a depressional wetland on Heixiazi Island (China). With the aid of principal component analysis and cluster analysis of the palynological data, the historical vegetation regime has been well reconstructed for wetlands on the island. With further assistance from the published data on local hydrology and regional East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations, the interactions of vegetation, hydrology, and climate in the island's wetlands have been thoroughly analyzed with correlation analysis of the three factors. The results indicate that a strong EASM generally led to a high water level in the wetlands from increased monsoonal precipitation, causing an increase in arboreal vegetation and a decrease in herbs. Alternatively, a weak EASM generally led to low water levels due to decreased monsoonal precipitation, causing a decrease in arboreal vegetation and an increase in herbs. The local vegetation regime during the early Holocene was marked by an increase in tree/herb ratio due to rising water levels under the influence of an increasingly strengthened EASM. Subsequently, a general decline of the tree/herb ratio occurred from a gradual decrease in water level during the mid and late Holocene when the EASM gradually retreated. The wettest stage marked by the highest water level and tree/herb ratio occurred 8.0-4.6 ka BP with the strongest EASM. The driest stage occurred during the last 0.4 ka BP, which was attributed to both the weakest EASM influence and anthropogenic disturbance. Our study provides an integrated view of the wetlands' ecological dynamics incorporating multi-factor interactions, which further sheds light on the EASM driving mechanisms on wetlands evolution during the Holocene Epoch.

Asian dust-storm activity dominated by Chinese dynasty changes since 2000 BP.

The Asian monsoon (AM) played an important role in the dynastic history of China, yet it remains unknown whether AM-mediated shifts in Chinese societies affect earth surface processes to the point of exceeding natural variability. Here, we present a dust storm intensity record dating back to the first unified dynasty of China (the Qin Dynasty, 221-207 B.C.E.). Marked increases in dust storm activity coincided with unified dynasties with large populations during strong AM periods. By contrast, reduced dust storm activity corresponded to decreased population sizes and periods of civil unrest, which was co-eval with a weakened AM. The strengthened AM may have facilitated the development of Chinese civilizations, destabilizing the topsoil and thereby increasing the dust storm frequency. Beginning at least 2000 years ago, human activities might have started to overtake natural climatic variability as the dominant controls of dust storm activity in eastern China.

Position and orientation of the westerly jet determined Holocene rainfall patterns in China.

Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.

A Review of Relative Pollen Productivity Estimates From Temperate China for Pollen-Based Quantitative Reconstruction of Past Plant Cover.

Model-based quantitative reconstruction of past plant cover in Europe has shown great potential for: (i) testing hypotheses related to Holocene vegetation dynamics, biodiversity, and their relationships with climate and land use; (ii) studying long term interactions between climate and land use. Similar model-based quantitative reconstruction of plant cover in China has been restricted due to the lack of standardized datasets of existing estimates of relative pollen productivity (RPP). This study presents the first synthesis of all RPP values available to date for 39 major plant taxa from temperate China and proposes standardized RPP datasets that can be used for model-based quantitative reconstructions of past plant cover using fossil pollen records for the region. We review 11 RPP studies in temperate China based on modern pollen and related vegetation data around the pollen samples. The study areas include meadow, steppe and desert vegetation, various woodland types, and cultural landscapes. We evaluate the strategies of each study in terms of selection of study areas and distribution of study sites; pollen- and vegetation-data collection in field; vegetation-data collection from satellite images and vegetation maps; and data analysis. We compare all available RPP estimates, select values based on precise rules and calculate mean RPP estimates. We propose two standardized RPP datasets for 31 (Alt1) and 29 (Alt2) plant taxa. The ranking of mean RPPs (Alt-2) relative to Poaceae (= 1) for eight major taxa is: Artemisia (21) > Pinus (18.4) > Betula (12.5) > Castanea (11.5) > Elaeagnaceae (8.8) > Juglans (7.5) > Compositae (4.5) > Amaranthaceae/Chenopodiaceae (4). We conclude that although RPPs are comparable between Europe and China for some genera and families, they can differ very significantly, e.g., Artemisia, Compositae, and Amaranthaceae/Chenopodiaceae. For some taxa, we present the first RPP estimates e.g. Castanea, Elaeagnaceae, and Juglans. The proposed standardized RPP datasets are essential for model-based reconstructions of past plant cover using fossil pollen records from temperate China.

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change.

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Identification of low-overpressure interval and its implication to hydrocarbon migration: Case study in the Yanan sag of the Qiongdongnan Basin, South China Sea.

The Qiongdongnan Basin is a strongly overpressured basin with the maximum pressure coefficient (the ratio of the actual pore pressure versus hydrostatic pressure at the same depth) over 2.27. However, there exists a widespread low-overpressure interval between the strong overpressure intervals in the Yanan Sag of western basin. The mechanisms of the low-overpressure interval are not well understood. Three main approaches, pore pressure test data and well-log analysis, pressure prediction based on the relationship between the deviation of the velocity and the pressure coefficients, and numerical modeling, were employed to illustrate the distribution and evolution of the low-overpressure interval. And we analyzed and explained the phenomenon of the low-overpressure interval that is both underlain and overlain by high overpressure internal. The low-overpressure interval between the strong overpressure intervals can be identified and modelled by drilling data of P-wave sonic and the mud weight, and the numerical modeling using the PetroMod software. Results show that the low-overpressure interval is mainly composed of sandstone sediments. The porosities of sandstone in the low-overpressure interval primarily range from 15%-20%, and the permeabilities range from 10-100 md. Analysis of the geochemical parameters of C1, iC4/nC4, ΔR3, and numerical modeling shows that oil and gas migrated upward into the sandstone in the low-overpressure interval, and then migrated along the sandstone of low-overpressure interval into the Yacheng uplift. The low-overpressure both underlain and overlain by overpressure resulted from the fluids migrating along the sandstones in the low-overpressure interval into the Yacheng uplift since 1.9Ma. The mudstone in the strong overpressure interval is good cap overlain the sandstone of low-overpressure interval, therefore up-dip pinchouts or isolated sandstone in the low-overpressure interval locating the migration path of oil and gas are good plays for hydrocarbon exploration.

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation.

The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

Groundwater sapping as the cause of irreversible desertification of Hunshandake Sandy Lands, Inner Mongolia, northern China.

In the middle-to-late Holocene, Earth's monsoonal regions experienced catastrophic precipitation decreases that produced green to desert state shifts. Resulting hydrologic regime change negatively impacted water availability and Neolithic cultures. Whereas mid-Holocene drying is commonly attributed to slow insolation reduction and subsequent nonlinear vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks that produce threshold conditions, evidence of trigger events initiating state switching has remained elusive. Here we document a threshold event ca. 4,200 years ago in the Hunshandake Sandy Lands of Inner Mongolia, northern China, associated with groundwater capture by the Xilamulun River. This process initiated a sudden and irreversible region-wide hydrologic event that exacerbated the desertification of the Hunshandake, resulting in post-Humid Period mass migration of northern China's Neolithic cultures. The Hunshandake remains arid and is unlikely, even with massive rehabilitation efforts, to revert back to green conditions.