To develop a prognostic model for neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy efficacy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma by analyzing the immune microenvironment.

Objective: The choice of neoadjuvant therapy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is controversial. This study aims to provide a basis for clinical treatment selection by establishing a predictive model for the efficacy of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy (NICT). Methods: A retrospective analysis of 30 patients was conducted, divided into Response and Non-response groups based on whether they achieved major pathological remission (MPR). Differences in genes and immune microenvironment between the two groups were analyzed through next-generation sequencing (NGS) and multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF). Variables most closely related to therapeutic efficacy were selected through LASSO regression and ROC curves to establish a predictive model. An additional 48 patients were prospectively collected as a validation set to verify the model's effectiveness. Results: NGS suggested seven differential genes (ATM, ATR, BIVM-ERCC5, MAP3K1, PRG, RBM10, and TSHR) between the two groups (P < 0.05). mIF indicated significant differences in the quantity and location of CD3+, PD-L1+, CD3+PD-L1+, CD4+PD-1+, CD4+LAG-3+, CD8+LAG-3+, LAG-3+ between the two groups before treatment (P < 0.05). Dynamic mIF analysis also indicated that CD3+, CD8+, and CD20+ all increased after treatment in both groups, with a more significant increase in CD8+ and CD20+ in the Response group (P < 0.05), and a more significant decrease in PD-L1+ (P < 0.05). The three variables most closely related to therapeutic efficacy were selected through LASSO regression and ROC curves: Tumor area PD-L1+ (AUC= 0.881), CD3+PD-L1+ (AUC= 0.833), and CD3+ (AUC= 0.826), and a predictive model was established. The model showed high performance in both the training set (AUC= 0.938) and the validation set (AUC= 0.832). Compared to the traditional CPS scoring criteria, the model showed significant improvements in accuracy (83.3% vs 70.8%), sensitivity (0.625 vs 0.312), and specificity (0.937 vs 0.906). Conclusion: NICT treatment may exert anti-tumor effects by enriching immune cells and activating exhausted T cells. Tumor area CD3+, PD-L1+, and CD3+PD-L1+ are closely related to therapeutic efficacy. The model containing these three variables can accurately predict treatment outcomes, providing a reliable basis for the selection of neoadjuvant treatment plans.

Prognostic significance of positive lymph node regression grade to neoadjuvant chemoradiation for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess the relationship between metastatic lymph node (LN) responder status and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 304 patients with local advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma received NCRT followed by esophagectomy. For 112 patients with positive node, according to the proportion of residual viable tumor cells area within the whole tumor beds of all metastatic LNs, we classified LN-tumor regression grade (LN-TRG) into four categories: grade 1, 0%; 2, <10%; 3, 10%-50%; 4, >50%. Patients with grade 1-2 LN-TRG of were considered LN responders, and those with grades 3-4, as LN nonresponders. Univariate and multivariate analyses of RFS were estimated by a Cox regression model, Kaplan-Meier curve, and log-rank test. RESULTS: The median follow-up time of a total of 112 patients was 29.6 months. Fifty-two (46.4%) patients have experienced recurrence. In Cox univariate analysis, differentiation, AJCC stage LN responder status, nerve invasion, and lymphovascular invasion significantly correlated with RFS. Multivariate analysis for RFS revealed that LN responder status and AJCC stage (p < 0.05) were independent prognostic factor. The 3-year RFS rates for patients with LN-TRG of 1-4 grades were 72.7%, 76.5%, 37.4%, and 28.5%, respectively, and the median RFS times were not reach, 43.56, 28.09, and 22.77, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: LN responder status is an independent prognostic factor for RFS in esophageal cancer patients who received NCRT.