The association of psychological and trauma-related factors with biological and facial aging acceleration: evidence from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Psychological and trauma-related factors are associated with many diseases and mortality. However, a comprehensive assessment of the association between psycho-trauma exposures and aging acceleration is currently lacking. METHODS: Using data from 332,359 UK Biobank participants, we calculated biological aging acceleration, indexed by the presence of leukocyte telomere length (LTL) deviation (i.e., the difference between genetically determined and observed LTL > 0). The acceleration of facial aging (i.e., looking older than the chronological age) was assessed using a self-report question. Then, we estimated the associations of each psycho-trauma factor with biological and facial aging acceleration, using logistic regression models adjusted for multiple important covariates. Furthermore, restricted to 99,180 participants with complete psychological and trauma-related data, we identified clusters of individuals with distinct psycho-trauma patterns using the latent class analysis method and assessed their associations with aging acceleration using similar models. RESULTS: We observed most of the studied psycho-trauma factors were associated with biological and facial aging acceleration. Compared to the "Absence of trauma and psychopathology" cluster, the "adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) with psychopathology" cluster showed strong associations with those aging measurements (odds ratio [OR] = 1.13 [1.05 - 1.23] for biological and 1.52 [1.18 - 1.95] for facial aging acceleration), while no such association was observed for the "ACEs without psychopathology" cluster (1.04 [0.99 - 1.09] and 1.02 [0.84 - 1.24]. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated significant associations of psycho-trauma factors with both biological and facial aging acceleration. The differential aging consequences observed among ACEs exposed individuals with and without psychopathology prompt interventions aimed to improve individuals' psychological resilience to prevent aging acceleration.

Association Between Body Composition Patterns, Cardiovascular Disease, and Risk of Neurodegenerative Disease in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Accumulating evidence connects diverse components of body composition (e.g., fat, muscle, and bone) to neurodegenerative disease risk, yet their interplay remains underexplored. This study examines the associations between patterns of body composition and the risk of neurodegenerative diseases, exploring the mediating role of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). METHODS: This retrospective analysis used data from the UK Biobank, a prospective community-based cohort study. We included participants free of neurodegenerative diseases and with requisite body composition measurements at recruitment, who were followed from 5 years after recruitment until April 1, 2023, to identify incident neurodegenerative diseases. We assessed the associations between different components and major patterns of body composition (identified by principal component analysis) with the risk of neurodegenerative diseases, using multivariable Cox models. Analyses were stratified by disease susceptibility, indexed by polygenetic risk scores for Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases, APOE genotype, and family history of neurodegenerative diseases. Furthermore, we performed mediation analysis to estimate the contribution of CVDs to these associations. In addition, in a subcohort of 40,790 participants, we examined the relationship between body composition patterns and brain aging biomarkers (i.e., brain atrophy and cerebral small vessel disease). RESULTS: Among 412,691 participants (mean age 56.0 years, 55.1% female), 8,224 new cases of neurodegenerative diseases were identified over an average follow-up of 9.1 years. Patterns identified as "fat-to-lean mass," "muscle strength," "bone density," and "leg-dominant fat distribution" were associated with a lower rate of neurodegenerative diseases (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.74-0.94) while "central obesity" and "arm-dominant fat distribution" patterns were associated with a higher rate (HR = 1.13-1.18). Stratification analysis yielded comparable risk estimates across different susceptibility groups. Notably, 10.7%-35.3% of the observed associations were mediated by CVDs, particularly cerebrovascular diseases. The subcohort analysis of brain aging biomarkers corroborated the findings for "central obesity," "muscle strength," and "arm-dominant fat distribution" patterns. DISCUSSION: Our analyses demonstrated robust associations of body composition patterns featured by "central obesity," "muscle strength," and "arm-dominant fat distribution" with both neurodegenerative diseases and brain aging, which were partially mediated by CVDs. These findings underscore the potential of improving body composition and early CVD management in mitigating risk of neurodegenerative diseases.

Cardiovascular Disease, Genetic Susceptibility, and Risk of Psychiatric Disorders and Suicide Attempt: A Community-Based Matched Cohort Study Based on the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and multiple psychiatric disorders and suicide attempt, and whether different genetic susceptibilities affect such links, have not been investigated clearly. METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the UK Biobank, we conducted a matched cohort study involving 63 923 patients who were first hospitalized with a CVD diagnosis between 1997 and 2020, and their 127 845 matched unexposed individuals. Cox models were used to examine the subsequent risk of psychiatric disorders and suicide attempt (ie, anxiety, depression, stress-related disorder, substance misuse, psychotic disorder, and suicide behaviors) following CVD. We further performed stratified analyses by polygenic risk score for each studied psychiatric condition to detect the possible effects of genetic susceptibility on the observed associations. We found an increased risk of any psychiatric disorders and suicide attempt among CVD patients, compared with matched unexposed individuals, particularly within 1 year following the CVD (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] within 1 year, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.58-2.12]; HR after 1 year, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.16-1.32]). By subtype, the risk elevations existed for any psychiatric disorders and suicide attempt following most categories of CVDs. Analyses stratified by polygenic risk score revealed little impact of genetic predisposition to studied psychiatric conditions on these observed links. CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized for CVD were at increased subsequent risk of multiple types of psychiatric disorders and suicide attempt, especially in the first year after hospitalization, irrespective of their genetic susceptibilities to studied psychiatric conditions, and these findings underscore the necessity of developing timely psychological interventions for this vulnerable population.

Association of pre-existing depression and anxiety with Omicron variant infection.

Pre-existing psychiatric disorders were linked to an increased susceptibility to COVID-19 during the initial outbreak of the pandemic, while evidence during Omicron prevalence is lacking. Leveraging data from two prospective cohorts in China, we identified incident Omicron infections between January 2023 and April 2023. Participants with a self-reported history or self-rated symptoms of depression or anxiety before the Omicron pandemic were considered the exposed group, whereas the others were considered unexposed. We employed multivariate logistic regression models to examine the association of pre-existing depression or anxiety with the risk of any or severe Omicron infection indexed by medical interventions or severe symptoms. Further, we stratified the analyses by polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for COVID-19 and repeated the analyses using the UK Biobank data. We included 10,802 individuals from the Chinese cohorts (mean age = 51.1 years, 45.6% male), among whom 7841 (72.6%) were identified as cases of Omicron infection. No association was found between any pre-existing depression or anxiety and the overall risk of Omicron infection (odds ratio [OR] =1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.14). However, positive associations were noted for severe Omicron infection, either as infections requiring medical interventions (1.26, 1.02-1.54) or with severe symptoms (≥3: 1.73, 1.51-1.97). We obtained comparable estimates when stratified by COVID-19 PRS level. Additionally, using clustering method, we identified eight distinct symptom patterns and found associations between pre-existing depression or anxiety and the patterns characterized by multiple or complex severe symptoms including cough and taste and smell decline (ORs = 1.42-2.35). The results of the UK Biobank analyses corroborated findings of the Chinese cohorts. In conclusion, pre-existing depression and anxiety was not associated with the risk of Omicron infection overall but an elevated risk of severe Omicron infection, supporting the continued efforts on monitoring and possible early intervention in this high-risk population during Omicron prevalence.

Use of statins and risks of ovarian, uterine, and cervical diseases: a cohort study in the UK Biobank.

PURPOSE: To examine the associations between use of statins and risks of various ovarian, uterine, and cervical diseases, including ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, cervical cancer, ovarian cyst, polycystic ovarian syndrome, endometriosis, endometrial hyperplasia, endometrial polyp, and cervical polyp. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study among female participants in the UK Biobank. Information on the use of statins was collected through verbal interview. Outcome information was obtained by linking to national cancer registry data and hospital inpatient data. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to examine the associations. RESULTS: A total of 180,855 female participants (18,403 statin users and 162,452 non-users) were included. Use of statins was significantly associated with increased risks of cervical cancer (adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.55; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.05-2.30) and polycystic ovarian syndrome (adjusted HR, 4.39; 95% CI, 1.68-11.49). However, we observed no significant association between use of statins and risk of ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, ovarian cyst, endometriosis, endometrial hyperplasia, endometrial polyp, or cervical polyp. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that use of statins is associated with increased risks of cervical cancer and polycystic ovarian syndrome, but is not associated with increased or decreased risk of ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, ovarian cyst, endometriosis, endometrial polyp, or cervical polyp.

Childhood maltreatment and risk of endocrine diseases: an exploration of mediating pathways using sequential mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including childhood maltreatment, have been linked with increased risk of diabetes and obesity during adulthood. A comprehensive assessment on the associations between childhood maltreatment and all major endocrine diseases, as well as the relative importance of different proposed mechanistic pathways on these associations, is currently lacking. METHODS: Based on the UK Biobank, we constructed a cohort including 151,659 participants with self-reported data on childhood maltreatment who were 30 years of age or older on/after January 1, 1985. All participants were followed from the index date (i.e., January 1, 1985, or their 30th birthday, whichever came later) until the first diagnosis of any or specific (12 individual diagnoses and 9 subtypes) endocrine diseases, death, or the end of follow-up (December 31, 2019), whichever occurred first. We used Cox models to examine the association of childhood maltreatment, treated as continuous (i.e., the cumulative number of experienced childhood maltreatment), ordinal (i.e., 0, 1 and ≥ 2), or binary (< 2 and ≥ 2) variable, with any and specific endocrine diseases, adjusted for multiple covariates. We further examined the risk of having multiple endocrine diseases using Linear or Logistic Regression models. Then, sequential mediation analyses were performed to assess the contribution of four possible mechanisms (i.e., suboptimal socioeconomic status (SES), psychological adversities, unfavorable lifestyle, and biological alterations) on the observed associations. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 30.8 years, 20,885 participants received a diagnosis of endocrine diseases. We observed an association between the cumulative number of experienced childhood maltreatment and increased risk of being diagnosed with any endocrine disease (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.12). The HR was 1.26 (1.22-1.30) when comparing individuals ≥ 2 with those with < 2 experienced childhood maltreatment. We further noted the most pronounced associations for type 2 diabetes (1.40 (1.33-1.48)) and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA)-axis-related endocrine diseases (1.38 (1.17-1.62)), and the association was stronger for having multiple endocrine diseases, compared to having one (odds ratio (95% CI) = 1.24 (1.19-1.30), 1.35 (1.27-1.44), and 1.52 (1.52-1.53) for 1, 2, and ≥ 3, respectively). Sequential mediation analyses showed that the association between childhood maltreatment and endocrine diseases was consistently and most distinctly mediated by psychological adversities (15.38 ~ 44.97%), while unfavorable lifestyle (10.86 ~ 25.32%) was additionally noted for type 2 diabetes whereas suboptimal SES (14.42 ~ 39.33%) for HPA-axis-related endocrine diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that adverse psychological sequel of childhood maltreatment constitutes the main pathway to multiple endocrine diseases, particularly type 2 diabetes and HPA-axis-related endocrine diseases. Therefore, increased access to evidence-based mental health services may also be pivotal in reducing the risk of endocrine diseases among childhood maltreatment-exposed individuals.

Disease clusters subsequent to anxiety and stress-related disorders and their genetic determinants.

Anxiety/stress-related disorders have been associated with multiple diseases, whereas a comprehensive assessment of the structure and interplay of subsequent associated diseases and their genetic underpinnings is lacking. Here, we first identify 136, out of 454 tested, medical conditions associated with incident anxiety/stress-related disorders attended in specialized care using a population-based cohort from the nationwide Swedish Patient Register, comprising 70,026 patients with anxiety/stress-related disorders and 1:10 birth year- and sex-matched unaffected individuals. By combining findings from the comorbidity network and disease trajectory analyses, we identify five robust disease clusters to be associated with a prior diagnosis of anxiety/stress-related disorders, featured by predominance of psychiatric disorders, eye diseases, ear diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and skin and genitourinary diseases. These five clusters and their featured diseases are largely validated in the UK Biobank. GWAS analyses based on the UK Biobank identify 3, 33, 40, 4, and 16 significantly independent single nucleotide polymorphisms for the link to the five disease clusters, respectively, which are mapped to several distinct risk genes and biological pathways. These findings motivate further mechanistic explorations and aid early risk assessment for cluster-based disease prevention among patients with newly diagnosed anxiety/stress-related disorders in specialized care.

Preoperative psychological symptoms and chronic postsurgical pain: analysis of the prospective China Surgery and Anaesthesia Cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Both preoperative psychological symptoms and chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) are prevalent conditions and major concerns among surgery patients, with inconclusive associations. METHODS: Based on the China Surgery and Anaesthesia Cohort (CSAC), we recruited 8350 surgery patients (40-65 yr old) from two medical centres between July 2020 and March 2023. Patients with preoperative psychological symptoms (i.e. anxiety, depression, stress reaction, and poor sleep quality) were identified using corresponding well-established scales. We then examined the associations of individual preoperative psychological symptoms and major patterns of preoperative psychological symptoms (identified by k-means clustering analysis) with CPSP, and different pain trajectories within 3 months. Lastly, mediation analyses were conducted to elucidate the mediating role of surgery/anaesthesia-related factors and the presence of 1-month postoperative psychological symptoms on the studied associations. RESULTS: We included 1302 (1302/8350, 15.6%) CPSP patients. When analysed separately, all studied preoperative psychological symptoms were associated with increased CPSP risk, with the most pronounced odds ratio noted for anxiety (1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.86). Compared with patients clustered in the minor symptom group, excess risk of CPSP and experiencing an increasing pain trajectory was increased among patients with preoperative psychological symptoms featured by sleep disturbances (odds ratio=1.46, 95% CI 1.25-1.70 for CPSP and 1.58, 95% CI 1.20-2.08 for increasing pain trajectory) and multiple psychological symptoms (1.84 [95% CI 1.48-2.28] and 4.34 [95% CI 3.20-5.88]). Mediation analyses revealed acute/subacute postsurgical pain and psychological symptoms existing 1 month after surgery as notable mediators of the observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of preoperative psychological symptoms might individually or jointly increase the risk of chronic postsurgical pain or experiencing deterioration in pain trajectory. Interventions for managing acute/subacute postsurgical pain and psychological symptoms at 1 month after surgery might help reduce such risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChiCTR2000034039.

Association of childhood adversities with psychosocial difficulties among Chinese children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been well recognized as risk factors for various adverse outcomes. However, the impacts of ACEs on psychological wellbeing among Chinese children and adolescents are unknown. METHODS: In total, 27 414 participants (6592 Grade 4-6 and 20 822 Grade 7-12 students) were included and information on ACEs and various psychosocial outcomes was collected. We identified subgroups with distinct psychosocial statuses using cluster analysis and logistic regression was applied to measure the associations of ACEs [individual, cumulative numbers by categories or co-occurring patterns identified by using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA)] with item- and cluster-specific psychosocial difficulties. RESULTS: Three and four cluster-based psychosocial statuses were identified for Grade 4-6 and Grade 7-12 students, respectively, indicating that psychosocial difficulties among younger students were mainly presented as changes in relationships/behaviours, whereas older students were more likely featured by deviations in multiple domains including psychiatric symptoms and suicidality. Strongest associations were found for threat-related ACEs (e.g. bullying experiences) with item- or cluster-based psychosocial difficulties (e.g. for cluster-based difficulties, the highest odds ratios = 1.72-2.08 for verbal bullying in Grade 4-6 students and 6.30-12.81 for cyberbullying in Grade 7-12 students). Analyses on cumulative numbers of ACEs and MCA-based ACE patterns revealed similar risk patterns. Additionally, exposure patterns predominated by poor external environment showed significant associations with psychosocial difficulties among Grade 7-12 students but not Grade 4-6 students. CONCLUSIONS: Chinese adolescents faced different psychosocial difficulties that varied by age, all of which were associated with ACEs, particularly threat-related ACEs. Such findings prompt the development of early interventions for those key ACEs to prevent psychosocial adversities among children and adolescents.

Lifestyle patterns, genetic susceptibility, and risk of valvular heart disease: a prospective cohort study based on the UK Biobank.

AIMS: Genetic and lifestyle factors are both major contributors to valvular heart disease (VHD). However, it is still uncertain whether genetic susceptibility alters the association between lifestyle and VHD. We aimed to investigate the association between lifestyle and VHD in different genetic risk backgrounds. METHODS AND RESULTS: A prospective cohort study was carried out on 499 341 participants without VHD at baseline. The assessment of lifestyle included smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, activity, and sleep. Genetic susceptibility was separately measured by polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and family history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) between lifestyle and VHD, as well as aortic stenosis (AS). During a median follow-up of 10.8 years, 12 983 incident VHD cases were diagnosed (incidence rate 2.46 per 1000 person-years), including 3527 AS cases (incidence rate 0.66 per 1000 person-years). The risk of VHD and AS decreased with healthier lifestyles (P value for trend <0.001). Compared to individuals with a unhealthy lifestyle, the HRs of VHD in intermediate and healthy lifestyle groups were 0.81 (0.76-0.86) and 0.81 (0.76-0.87). The negative association between healthy lifestyle and VHD events was independent of genetic risk (P for interaction between healthy lifestyle scores and PRSs/family history of CVD was 0.723/0.763). Similar findings were obtained in analyses of AS, and a stronger negative association was found. CONCLUSION: Our study reveals that adherence to a healthy lifestyle is significantly associated with a reduced risk of VHD especially AS, irrespective of genetic susceptibility. SUMMARY: Based on a cohort of around 490 000 participants, the study investigated the association between lifestyle and VHD under different stratifications of genetic risk. The study found that a healthy lifestyle was associated with a lower risk of VHD, particularly AS, independent of genetic risk. Our findings suggest that advance interventions for lifestyle may be an effective way to reduce the global burden of VHD.

Adverse health consequences of undiagnosed hearing loss at middle age: A prospective cohort study with the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVES: Hearing impairment is common in the middle-aged population but remains largely undiagnosed and untreated. The knowledge about to what extent and how hearing impairment matters for health is currently lacking. Thus, we aimed to comprehensively examine the adverse health consequences as well as the comorbidity patterns of undiagnosed hearing loss. STUDY DESIGN: Based on the prospective cohort of the UK Biobank, we included 14,620 individuals (median age 61 years) with audiometry-determined (i.e., speech-in-noise test) objective hearing loss and 38,479 individuals with subjective hearing loss (i.e., tested negative but with self-reported hearing problems; median age 58 years) at recruitment (2006-2010), together with 29,240 and 38,479 matched unexposed individuals respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox regression was used to determine the associations of both hearing-loss exposures with the risk of 499 medical conditions and 14 cause-specific deaths, adjusting for ethnicity, annual household income, smoking and alcohol intake, exposure to working noise, and BMI. Comorbidity patterns following both exposures were visualized by comorbidity modules (i.e., sets of connected diseases) identified in the comorbidity network analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9 years, 28 medical conditions and mortality related to nervous system disease showed significant associations with prior objective hearing loss. Subsequently, the comorbidity network identified four comorbidity modules (i.e., neurodegenerative, respiratory, psychiatric, and cardiometabolic diseases), with the most pronounced association noted for the module related to neurodegenerative diseases (meta-hazard ratio [HR] = 2.00, 95%confidence interval [CI] 1.67-2.39). For subjective hearing loss, we found 57 associated medical conditions, which were partitioned into four modules (i.e., diseases related to the digestive, psychiatric, inflammatory, and cardiometabolic systems), with meta-HRs varying from 1.17 to 1.25. CONCLUSIONS: Undiagnosed hearing loss captured by screening could identify individuals with at greater risk of multiple adverse health consequences, highlighting the importance of screening for speech-in-noise hearing impairment in the middle-aged population, for potential early diagnosis and intervention.

The Causal Association of Irritable Bowel Syndrome with Multiple Disease Outcomes: A Phenome-Wide Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to identify novel associations between irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and a broad range of outcomes. METHODS: In total, 346,352 white participants in the U.K. Biobank were randomly divided into two halves, in which a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of IBS and a polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis of IBS using GWAS summary statistics were conducted, respectively. A phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) based on the PRS of IBS was performed to identify disease outcomes associated with IBS. Then, the causalities of these associations were tested by both one-sample (individual-level data in U.K. Biobank) and two-sample (publicly available summary statistics) Mendelian randomization (MR). Sex-stratified PheWAS-MR analyses were performed in male and female, separately. RESULTS: Our PheWAS identified five diseases associated with genetically predicted IBS. Conventional MR confirmed these causal associations between IBS and depression (OR: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.01-1.14, p = 0.02), diverticular diseases of the intestine (OR: 1.13, 95%CI: 1.08-1.19, p = 3.00 × 10-6), gastro-esophageal reflux disease (OR: 1.09, 95%CI: 1.05-1.13, p = 3.72 × 10-5), dyspepsia (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.13-1.30, p = 9.28 × 10-8), and diaphragmatic hernia (OR: 1.10, 95%CI: 1.05-1.15, p = 2.75 × 10-5). The causality of these associations was observed in female only, but not men. CONCLUSIONS: Increased risks of IBS is found to cause a series of disease outcomes. Our findings support further investigation on the clinical relevance of increased IBS risks with mental and digestive disorders.

The Association of Physical Activity Behaviors and Patterns With Aging Acceleration: Evidence From the UK Biobank.

Prior evidence suggests that physical activity may reduce the risk of multiple diseases and mortality. However, whether and how physical activity affects the aging process remains largely unexplored. We included 284 479 UK Biobank participants and computed leukocyte telomere length (LTL) deviation (ie, the difference between genetically determined and observed LTL) and biological age acceleration (defined as the discrepancy between the phenotypic age of a person and the average phenotypic age in the cohort of individuals with the same age and sex) as the indexes for aging acceleration. Linear and logistic models were used to estimate the associations of self-reported physical activity items and patterns (identified by principal component analysis), as well as accelerometer-assessed physical activity, with aging acceleration. Analyses of physical activity patterns indicated, a higher level of adherence to activity patterns predominated by strenuous sports, other exercises, walking for pleasure, heavy and light housework, and public transportation use was associated with a lower risk of aging acceleration, whereas a higher level of adherence to patterns predominated by job-related activities was associated with a higher risk of aging acceleration. Analysis among 62 418 participants with accelerometer-measured physical activity corroborated these results. Physical activity, such as strenuous sports and other exercises in leisure time and the use of public transportation, was associated with reduced biological aging. Besides highlighting the importance of engaging in physical activity for healthy aging, our results provide further evidence for the beneficial effect of physical activity on the telomere attrition process.

Prediction of Suicidal Behaviors in the Middle-aged Population: Machine Learning Analyses of UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Suicidal behaviors, including suicide deaths and attempts, are major public health concerns. However, previous suicide models required a huge amount of input features, resulting in limited applicability in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to construct applicable models (ie, with limited features) for short- and long-term suicidal behavior prediction. We further validated these models among individuals with different genetic risks of suicide. METHODS: Based on the prospective cohort of UK Biobank, we included 223 (0.06%) eligible cases of suicide attempts or deaths, according to hospital inpatient or death register data within 1 year from baseline and randomly selected 4460 (1.18%) controls (1:20) without such records. We similarly identified 833 (0.22%) cases of suicidal behaviors 1 to 6 years from baseline and 16,660 (4.42%) corresponding controls. Based on 143 input features, mainly including sociodemographic, environmental, and psychosocial factors; medical history; and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for suicidality, we applied a bagged balanced light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) with stratified 10-fold cross-validation and grid-search to construct the full prediction models for suicide attempts or deaths within 1 year or between 1 and 6 years. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) approach was used to quantify the importance of input features, and the top 20 features with the highest SHAP values were selected to train the applicable models. The external validity of the established models was assessed among 50,310 individuals who participated in UK Biobank repeated assessments both overall and by the level of PRS for suicidality. RESULTS: Individuals with suicidal behaviors were on average 56 years old, with equal sex distribution. The application of these full models in the external validation data set demonstrated good model performance, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of 0.919 and 0.892 within 1 year and between 1 and 6 years, respectively. Importantly, the applicable models with the top 20 most important features showed comparable external-validated performance (AUROC curves of 0.901 and 0.885) as the full models, based on which we found that individuals in the top quintile of predicted risk accounted for 91.7% (n=11) and 80.7% (n=25) of all suicidality cases within 1 year and during 1 to 6 years, respectively. We further obtained comparable prediction accuracy when applying these models to subpopulations with different genetic susceptibilities to suicidality. For example, for the 1-year risk prediction, the AUROC curves were 0.907 and 0.885 for the high (>2nd tertile of PRS) and low (<1st) genetic susceptibilities groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We established applicable machine learning-based models for predicting both the short- and long-term risk of suicidality with high accuracy across populations of varying genetic risk for suicide, highlighting a cost-effective method of identifying individuals with a high risk of suicidality.

Trends in incident diagnoses and drug prescriptions for anxiety and depression during the COVID-19 pandemic: an 18-month follow-up study based on the UK Biobank.

Serious concerns have been raised about the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on population psychological well-being. However, limited data exist on the long-term effects of the pandemic on incident psychiatric morbidities among individuals with varying exposure to the pandemic. Leveraging prospective data from the community-based UK Biobank cohort, we included 308,400 participants free of diagnosis of anxiety or depression, as well as 213,757 participants free of anxiolytics or antidepressants prescriptions, to explore the trends in incident diagnoses and drug prescriptions for anxiety and depression from 16 March 2020 to 31 August 2021, compared to the pre-pandemic period (i.e., 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019) and across populations with different exposure statuses (i.e., not tested for COVID-19, tested negative and tested positive). The age- and sex-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated by month which indicated an increase in incident diagnoses of anxiety or depression among individuals who were tested for COVID-19 (tested negative: SIR 3.05 [95% confidence interval 2.88-3.22]; tested positive: 2.03 [1.76-2.34]), especially during the first six months of the pandemic (i.e., March-September 2020). Similar increases were also observed for incident prescriptions of anxiolytics or antidepressants (tested negative: 1.56 [1.47-1.67]; tested positive: 1.41 [1.22-1.62]). In contrast, individuals not tested for COVID-19 had consistently lower incidence rates of both diagnoses of anxiety or depression (0.70 [0.67-0.72]) and prescriptions of respective psychotropic medications (0.70 [0.68-0.72]) during the pandemic period. These data suggest a distinct rise in health care needs for anxiety and depression among individuals tested for COVID-19, regardless of the test result, in contrast to a reduction in health care consumption for these disorders among individuals not tested for and, presumably, not directly exposed to the disease.

Circulating gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase and risk of pancreatic cancer: A prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: To determine whether serum gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) level is associated with pancreatic cancer risk in a large prospective cohort. METHODS: The study analyzed serum GGT concentration at baseline of 421,032 participants recruited in the UK Biobank since 2006 through 2010. Information on incidence of pancreatic cancer was obtained from cancer and death registers, updated until 2015 in Scotland or 2016 in England and Wales. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to measure the association between serum GGT and pancreatic cancer risk. RESULTS: The study identified 586 cases of pancreatic cancer over a median follow-up period of 7.16 years. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox model, serum GGT level was associated with 14% higher pancreatic cancer risk (hazard ratio (HR) per one standard deviation increment of log2 GGT level = 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.28, p = 0.025). In the total population, the HR for the highest GGT group was 1.68 (95%CI: 1.22-2.30) versus the lowest GGT group. The HR for the highest GGT group in men (≥50.2 U/L) was 1.72 (95%CI: 1.14-2.61) and that in women (≥31.6 U/L) was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.06-2.88) versus the lowest GGT group. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggested a positive association of serum GGT in pancreatic cancer etiology, implying the potential of monitoring GGT level for identifying at-risk individuals for pancreatic cancer.

Association of sleep behaviour and pattern with the risk of glaucoma: a prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVES: Given the role of intraocular pressure in glaucoma, the patient's sleeping pattern might contribute to the development and progression of glaucoma. We performed a study to understand the association between sleep behaviours and glaucoma. DESIGN: Our study was a prospective cohort study. SETTING: This was a prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank. Self-reported data on five sleep behaviours were collected using a questionnaire at baseline. We identified four sleep patterns based on a cluster analysis of the sleep behaviours. PARTICIPANTS: In the UK Biobank, 409 053 participants were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and followed for a diagnosis of glaucoma. We identified glaucoma as any hospital admission with a diagnosis of glaucoma, based on UK Biobank inpatient hospital data. Individuals who withdrew from the UK Biobank, or were diagnosed with glaucoma before recruitment, or had self-reported surgery or laser treatment for glaucoma, or had no information on sleep behaviors were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the associations of different sleep behaviors, as well as identified sleep patterns, with the risk of glaucoma, adjusting for multiple confounders. RESULTS: Compared with individuals who had a healthy sleep pattern, an excess risk of any glaucoma was observed among individuals with snoring and daytime sleepiness (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.19) or insomnia and short/long sleep duration (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.20), but not late chronotype sleep pattern (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.03). CONCLUSION: Snoring, daytime sleepiness, insomnia, and short/long duration, individually or jointly, were all associated with the risk of glaucoma. These findings underscore the need for sleep intervention for individuals at high risk of glaucoma as well as potential ophthalmologic screening among individuals with chronic sleep problems for glaucoma prevention.

Sex-specific association between coffee consumption and incident chronic kidney disease: a population-based analysis of 359,906 participants from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) is influenced by genetic predisposition, sex, and lifestyle. Previous research indicates that coffee is a potentially protective factor in CKD. The current study aims to investigate whether sex disparity exists in the coffee-CKD association, and whether genetic risk of CKD or genetic polymorphisms of caffeine metabolism affect this association. METHODS: A total of 359,906 participants from the UK Biobank who were enrolled between 2006 and 2010 were included in this prospective cohort study, which aimed to estimate the hazard ratios for coffee intake and incident CKD using a Cox proportional hazard model. Allele scores of CKD and caffeine metabolism were additionally adjusted for in a subsample with qualified genetic data ( n = 255,343). Analyses stratified by genetic predisposition, comorbidities, and sex hormones were performed. Tests based on Bayesian model averaging were conducted to ascertain the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Coffee was inversely associated with CKD in a dose-dependent manner. The effects of coffee did not differ across different strata of genetic risk for CKD, but were more evident among slower genetically predicted caffeine metabolizers. Significant sex disparity was observed ( P value for interaction = 0.013), in that coffee drinking was only associated with the risk reduction of CKD in females. Subgroup analysis revealed that testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), but not estradiol, modified the coffee-CKD association. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to the overall inverse coffee-CKD association that was observed in the general population, we could also establish that a sex disparity existed, in that females were more likely to experience the benefit of the association. Testosterone and SHBG may partly account for the sex disparity.

The role of genetic predisposition in cardiovascular risk after cancer diagnosis: a matched cohort study of the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is scarce regarding the potential modifying role of disease susceptibility on the association between a prior cancer diagnosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort study of UK Biobank including 78,860 individuals with a cancer diagnosis between January 1997 and January 2020, and 394,300 birth year and sex individually matched unexposed individuals. We used Cox model to assess the subsequent relative risk of CVD, which was further stratified by individual genetic predisposition. RESULTS: During nearly 23 years of follow-up, an elevated risk of CVD was constantly observed among cancer patients, compared to their matched unexposed individuals. Such excess risk was most pronounced (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.90-5.69) within 3 months after a cancer diagnosis, which then decreased rapidly and stabilised for >6 months (HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.19-1.24). For all the studied time periods, stratification analyses by both levels of polygenic risk score for CVD and by family history of CVD revealed higher estimates among individuals with lower genetic risk predisposition. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that patients with a recent cancer diagnosis were at an increased risk of multiple types of CVD and the excess CVD risk was higher among individuals with lower genetic susceptibility to CVD, highlighting a general need for enhanced psychological assistance and clinical surveillance of CVD among newly diagnosed cancer patients.