A novel data-driven decision model based on extended belief rule base to predict China's carbon emissions.

Global warming and climate change are gaining traction in recent years. As a major cause of global warming, carbon emissions were centered to China's climate change policy initiatives. Nevertheless, the existing policy discourse has yet reached a consensus on the optimal modeling method for carbon emissions prediction that is well-informed of both policy goals and the time-series pattern of carbon emissions. This paper fills the gap by promoting a novel data-driven decision model for carbon emissions prediction that is based on the extended belief rule base (EBRB) inference model. The new decision model consists of three components: 1) an indicator integration method, which aims to generate a few group indicators from a large number of statistical indicators; 2) a new EBRB construction method, which aims to consider the management policy goals for constructing EBRB; 3) a new ER-based inference method, which aims to predict carbon emissions based on time series change of relevant factors. The effectiveness of the proposed decision model has been tested against carbon emissions management data from 30 provinces in China. Experimental results demonstrate that the model will offer powerful reference value in the policy decision-making process, which will help to meet policy requirements for carbon emissions.

Conjugated bile acids in gallbladder bile and serum as potential biomarkers for cholesterol polyps and adenomatous polyps.

PURPOSE: To identify conjugated bile acids in gallbladder bile and serum as possible biomarkers for cholesterol polyps (CPs) and adenomatous polyps (APs). METHODS: Gallbladder bile samples and serum samples were collected from 18 patients with CPs (CP group), 9 patients with APs (AP group), and 20 patients with gallstones (control group) from March to November, 2013. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) assay with ultraviolent detection was used to detect the concentration of 8 conjugated bile acids (glycocholic acid, GCA; taurocholic acid, TCA; glycochenodeoxycholic acid, GCDCA; taurochenodeoxycholic acid, TCDCA; glycodeoxycholic acid, GDCA; taurodeoxycholic acid, TDCA; taurolithocholic acid, TLCA; tauroursodeoxycholic acid, TUDCA) in bile samples and serum samples. The diagnostic efficacy of serum GCA, GCDCA and TCDCA was evaluated. RESULTS: These 8 conjugated bile acids in gallbladder bile and serum were completely identified within 10 minutes with good linearity (correlation coefficient: R>0.9900; linearity range: 3.91-500 µg/mL). Among these conjugated bile acids, the levels of gallbladder bile GCDCA and TCDCA in the CP group were significantly higher than those in the AP group (p<0.05). Furthermore, serum GCDCA and TCDCA as well as GCA were significantly higher in the AP group than the CP group (p<0.05). Serum GCDCA alone (≤12 µg/mL) had relatively better diagnostic efficacy than the other conjugated bile acids. CONCLUSIONS: The levels of serum GCA, GCDCA and TCDCA may be valuable for differentiation of APs and CPs.