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Alzheimer's disease is a highly heterogeneous disease in which different biomarkers are dynamic over different windows of the decades-long pathophysiological processes, and potentially have distinct involvement in different subgroups. Subtype and Stage Inference is an unsupervised learning algorithm that disentangles the phenotypic heterogeneity and temporal progression of disease biomarkers, providing disease insight and quantitative estimates of individual subtype and stage. However, a key limitation of Subtype and Stage Inference is that it requires a complete set of biomarkers for each subject, reducing the number of datapoints available for model fitting and limiting applications of Subtype and Stage Inference to modalities that are widely collected, e.g. volumetric biomarkers derived from structural MRI. In this study, we adapted the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm to handle missing data, enabling the application of Subtype and Stage Inference to multimodal data (magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, cerebrospinal fluid and cognitive tests) from 789 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference identified five subtypes having distinct progression patterns, which we describe by the earliest unique abnormality as 'Typical AD with Early Tau', 'Typical AD with Late Tau', 'Cortical', 'Cognitive' and 'Subcortical'. These new multimodal subtypes were differentially associated with age, years of education, Apolipoprotein E (APOE4) status, white matter hyperintensity burden and the rate of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease, with the 'Cognitive' subtype showing the fastest clinical progression, and the 'Subcortical' subtype the slowest. Overall, we demonstrate that missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference reveals a finer landscape of Alzheimer's disease subtypes, each of which are associated with different risk factors. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference has broad utility, enabling the prediction of progression in a much wider set of individuals, rather than being restricted to those with complete data.
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Lewy body (LB) diseases, characterized by the aggregation of misfolded α-synuclein proteins, exhibit notable clinical heterogeneity. This may be due to variations in accumulation patterns of LB neuropathology. Here we apply a data-driven disease progression model to regional neuropathological LB density scores from 814 brain donors with Lewy pathology. We describe three inferred trajectories of LB pathology that are characterized by differing clinicopathological presentation and longitudinal antemortem clinical progression. Most donors (81.9%) show earliest pathology in the olfactory bulb, followed by accumulation in either limbic (60.8%) or brainstem (21.1%) regions. The remaining donors (18.1%) initially exhibit abnormalities in brainstem regions. Early limbic pathology is associated with Alzheimer's disease-associated characteristics while early brainstem pathology is associated with progressive motor impairment and substantial LB pathology outside of the brain. Our data provides evidence for heterogeneity in the temporal spread of LB pathology, possibly explaining some of the clinical disparities observed in Lewy body disease.
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Progresión de la Enfermedad , Cuerpos de Lewy , Enfermedad por Cuerpos de Lewy , alfa-Sinucleína , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , alfa-Sinucleína/metabolismo , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/patología , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/metabolismo , Encéfalo/patología , Encéfalo/metabolismo , Tronco Encefálico/patología , Tronco Encefálico/metabolismo , Cuerpos de Lewy/patología , Cuerpos de Lewy/metabolismo , Enfermedad por Cuerpos de Lewy/patología , Enfermedad por Cuerpos de Lewy/metabolismo , Bulbo Olfatorio/patología , Bulbo Olfatorio/metabolismoRESUMEN
Alzheimer's disease typically progresses in stages, which have been defined by the presence of disease-specific biomarkers: amyloid (A), tau (T) and neurodegeneration (N). This progression of biomarkers has been condensed into the ATN framework, in which each of the biomarkers can be either positive (+) or negative (-). Over the past decades, genome-wide association studies have implicated â¼90 different loci involved with the development of late-onset Alzheimer's disease. Here, we investigate whether genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease contributes equally to the progression in different disease stages or whether it exhibits a stage-dependent effect. Amyloid (A) and tau (T) status was defined using a combination of available PET and CSF biomarkers in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort. In 312 participants with biomarker-confirmed A-T- status, we used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the contribution of APOE and polygenic risk scores (beyond APOE) to convert to A+T- status (65 conversions). Furthermore, we repeated the analysis in 290 participants with A+T- status and investigated the genetic contribution to conversion to A+T+ (45 conversions). Both survival analyses were adjusted for age, sex and years of education. For progression from A-T- to A+T-, APOE-e4 burden showed a significant effect [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.70-4.89; P < 0.001], whereas polygenic risk did not (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.84-1.42; P = 0.53). Conversely, for the transition from A+T- to A+T+, the contribution of APOE-e4 burden was reduced (HR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.05-2.51; P = 0.031), whereas the polygenic risk showed an increased contribution (HR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.27-2.36; P < 0.001). The marginal APOE effect was driven by e4 homozygotes (HR = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.05-6.35; P = 0.039) as opposed to e4 heterozygotes (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 0.87-3.49; P = 0.12). The genetic risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease unfolds in a disease stage-dependent fashion. A better understanding of the interplay between disease stage and genetic risk can lead to a more mechanistic understanding of the transition between ATN stages and a better understanding of the molecular processes leading to Alzheimer's disease, in addition to opening therapeutic windows for targeted interventions.
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Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Proteínas tau , Humanos , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/genética , Masculino , Femenino , Anciano , Proteínas tau/líquido cefalorraquídeo , Proteínas tau/genética , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad/genética , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Biomarcadores/líquido cefalorraquídeo , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Apolipoproteínas E/genética , Tomografía de Emisión de Positrones , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Herencia Multifactorial/genética , Péptidos beta-Amiloides/líquido cefalorraquídeo , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios de CohortesRESUMEN
Multiscale neuroscience conceptualizes mental illness as arising from aberrant interactions across and within multiple biopsychosocial scales. We leverage this framework to propose a multiscale disease progression model of psychosis, in which hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity precedes impairments in episodic memory and social cognition, which lead to more severe negative symptoms and lower functional outcome. As psychosis represents a heterogeneous collection of biological and behavioral alterations that evolve over time, we further predict this disease progression for a subtype of the patient sample, with other patients showing normal-range performance on all variables. We sampled data from two cross-sectional datasets of first- and multi-episode psychosis, resulting in a sample of 163 patients and 119 non-clinical controls. To address our proposed disease progression model and evaluate potential heterogeneity, we applied a machine-learning algorithm, SuStaIn, to the patient data. SuStaIn uniquely integrates clustering and disease progression modeling and identified three patient subtypes. Subtype 0 showed normal-range performance on all variables. In comparison, Subtype 1 showed lower episodic memory, social cognition, functional outcome, and higher negative symptoms, while Subtype 2 showed lower hippocampal-cortical connectivity and episodic memory. Subtype 1 deteriorated from episodic memory to social cognition, negative symptoms, functional outcome to bilateral hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity, while Subtype 2 deteriorated from bilateral hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity to episodic memory and social cognition, functional outcome to negative symptoms. This first application of SuStaIn in a multiscale psychiatric model provides distinct disease trajectories of hippocampal-cortical connectivity, which might underlie the heterogeneous behavioral manifestations of psychosis.
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Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.
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Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Enfermedades Neurodegenerativas , Humanos , Progresión de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with coexistent emphysema, termed combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) may associate with reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) declines compared to non-CPFE IPF patients. We examined associations between mortality and functional measures of disease progression in two IPF cohorts. METHODS: Visual emphysema presence (>0% emphysema) scored on computed tomography identified CPFE patients (CPFE/non-CPFE: derivation cohort n=317/n=183, replication cohort n=358/n=152), who were subgrouped using 10% or 15% visual emphysema thresholds, and an unsupervised machine-learning model considering emphysema and interstitial lung disease extents. Baseline characteristics, 1-year relative FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) decline (linear mixed-effects models), and their associations with mortality (multivariable Cox regression models) were compared across non-CPFE and CPFE subgroups. RESULTS: In both IPF cohorts, CPFE patients with ≥10% emphysema had a greater smoking history and lower baseline D LCO compared to CPFE patients with <10% emphysema. Using multivariable Cox regression analyses in patients with ≥10% emphysema, 1-year D LCO decline showed stronger mortality associations than 1-year FVC decline. Results were maintained in patients suitable for therapeutic IPF trials and in subjects subgrouped by ≥15% emphysema and using unsupervised machine learning. Importantly, the unsupervised machine-learning approach identified CPFE patients in whom FVC decline did not associate strongly with mortality. In non-CPFE IPF patients, 1-year FVC declines ≥5% and ≥10% showed strong mortality associations. CONCLUSION: When assessing disease progression in IPF, D LCO decline should be considered in patients with ≥10% emphysema and a ≥5% 1-year relative FVC decline threshold considered in non-CPFE IPF patients.
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Enfisema , Fibrosis Pulmonar Idiopática , Enfisema Pulmonar , Humanos , Enfisema Pulmonar/complicaciones , Pulmón , Fibrosis , Enfisema/complicaciones , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
Lewy body (LB) disorders, characterized by the aggregation of misfolded α-synuclein proteins, exhibit notable clinical heterogeneity. This may be due to variations in accumulation patterns of LB neuropathology. By applying data-driven disease progression modelling to regional neuropathological LB density scores from 814 brain donors, we describe three inferred trajectories of LB pathology that were characterized by differing clinicopathological presentation and longitudinal antemortem clinical progression. Most donors (81.9%) showed earliest pathology in the olfactory bulb, followed by accumulation in either limbic (60.8%) or brainstem (21.1%) regions. The remaining donors (18.1%) exhibited the first abnormalities in brainstem regions. Early limbic pathology was associated with Alzheimer's disease-associated characteristics. Meanwhile, brainstem-first pathology was associated with progressive motor impairment and substantial LB pathology outside of the brain. Our data provides evidence for heterogeneity in the temporal spread of LB pathology, possibly explaining some of the clinical disparities observed in LBDs.
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Artificial intelligence (AI)-based tools are widely employed, but their use for diagnosis and prognosis of neurological disorders is still evolving. Here we analyse a cross-sectional multicentre structural MRI dataset of 696 people with epilepsy and 118 control subjects. We use an innovative machine-learning algorithm, Subtype and Stage Inference, to develop a novel data-driven disease taxonomy, whereby epilepsy subtypes correspond to distinct patterns of spatiotemporal progression of brain atrophy.In a discovery cohort of 814 individuals, we identify two subtypes common to focal and idiopathic generalized epilepsies, characterized by progression of grey matter atrophy driven by the cortex or the basal ganglia. A third subtype, only detected in focal epilepsies, was characterized by hippocampal atrophy. We corroborate external validity via an independent cohort of 254 people and confirm that the basal ganglia subtype is associated with the most severe epilepsy.Our findings suggest fundamental processes underlying the progression of epilepsy-related brain atrophy. We deliver a novel MRI- and AI-guided epilepsy taxonomy, which could be used for individualized prognostics and targeted therapeutics.
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Encéfalo , Epilepsia , Humanos , Encéfalo/diagnóstico por imagen , Encéfalo/patología , Inteligencia Artificial , Estudios Transversales , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Epilepsia/diagnóstico por imagen , Epilepsia/patología , Atrofia/patologíaRESUMEN
Amyloid-ß is thought to facilitate the spread of tau throughout the neocortex in Alzheimer's disease, though how this occurs is not well understood. This is because of the spatial discordance between amyloid-ß, which accumulates in the neocortex, and tau, which accumulates in the medial temporal lobe during ageing. There is evidence that in some cases amyloid-ß-independent tau spreads beyond the medial temporal lobe where it may interact with neocortical amyloid-ß. This suggests that there may be multiple distinct spatiotemporal subtypes of Alzheimer's-related protein aggregation, with potentially different demographic and genetic risk profiles. We investigated this hypothesis, applying data-driven disease progression subtyping models to post-mortem neuropathology and in vivo PET-based measures from two large observational studies: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP). We consistently identified 'amyloid-first' and 'tau-first' subtypes using cross-sectional information from both studies. In the amyloid-first subtype, extensive neocortical amyloid-ß precedes the spread of tau beyond the medial temporal lobe, while in the tau-first subtype, mild tau accumulates in medial temporal and neocortical areas prior to interacting with amyloid-ß. As expected, we found a higher prevalence of the amyloid-first subtype among apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele carriers while the tau-first subtype was more common among APOE ε4 non-carriers. Within tau-first APOE ε4 carriers, we found an increased rate of amyloid-ß accumulation (via longitudinal amyloid PET), suggesting that this rare group may belong within the Alzheimer's disease continuum. We also found that tau-first APOE ε4 carriers had several fewer years of education than other groups, suggesting a role for modifiable risk factors in facilitating amyloid-ß-independent tau. Tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, in contrast, recapitulated many of the features of primary age-related tauopathy. The rate of longitudinal amyloid-ß and tau accumulation (both measured via PET) within this group did not differ from normal ageing, supporting the distinction of primary age-related tauopathy from Alzheimer's disease. We also found reduced longitudinal subtype consistency within tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, suggesting additional heterogeneity within this group. Our findings support the idea that amyloid-ß and tau may begin as independent processes in spatially disconnected regions, with widespread neocortical tau resulting from the local interaction of amyloid-ß and tau. The site of this interaction may be subtype-dependent: medial temporal lobe in amyloid-first, neocortex in tau-first. These insights into the dynamics of amyloid-ß and tau may inform research and clinical trials that target these pathologies.
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Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Humanos , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/patología , Apolipoproteína E4/genética , Proteínas tau/metabolismo , Estudios Transversales , Péptidos beta-Amiloides/metabolismo , Amiloide , Tomografía de Emisión de PositronesRESUMEN
TAR DNA-binding protein-43 (TDP-43) accumulation is the primary pathology underlying several neurodegenerative diseases. Charting the progression and heterogeneity of TDP-43 accumulation is necessary to better characterize TDP-43 proteinopathies, but current TDP-43 staging systems are heuristic and assume each syndrome is homogeneous. Here, we use data-driven disease progression modelling to derive a fine-grained empirical staging system for the classification and differentiation of frontotemporal lobar degeneration due to TDP-43 (FTLD-TDP, n = 126), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, n = 141) and limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC) with and without Alzheimer's disease (n = 304). The data-driven staging of ALS and FTLD-TDP complement and extend previously described human-defined staging schema for ALS and behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia. In LATE-NC individuals, progression along data-driven stages was positively associated with age, but negatively associated with age in individuals with FTLD-TDP. Using only regional TDP-43 severity, our data driven model distinguished individuals diagnosed with ALS, FTLD-TDP or LATE-NC with a cross-validated accuracy of 85.9%, with misclassifications associated with mixed pathological diagnosis, age and genetic mutations. Adding age and SuStaIn stage to this model increased accuracy to 92.3%. Our model differentiates LATE-NC from FTLD-TDP, though some overlap was observed between late-stage LATE-NC and early-stage FTLD-TDP. We further tested for the presence of subtypes with distinct regional TDP-43 progression patterns within each diagnostic group, identifying two distinct cortical-predominant and brainstem-predominant subtypes within FTLD-TDP and a further two subcortical-predominant and corticolimbic-predominant subtypes within ALS. The FTLD-TDP subtypes exhibited differing proportions of TDP-43 type, while there was a trend for age differing between ALS subtypes. Interestingly, a negative relationship between age and SuStaIn stage was seen in the brainstem/subcortical-predominant subtype of each proteinopathy. No subtypes were observed for the LATE-NC group, despite aggregating individuals with and without Alzheimer's disease and a larger sample size for this group. Overall, we provide an empirical pathological TDP-43 staging system for ALS, FTLD-TDP and LATE-NC, which yielded accurate classification. We further demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst ALS and FTLD-TDP progression patterns that warrants further investigation in larger cross-cohort studies.
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Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Esclerosis Amiotrófica Lateral , Demencia Frontotemporal , Degeneración Lobar Frontotemporal , Proteinopatías TDP-43 , Humanos , Esclerosis Amiotrófica Lateral/genética , Demencia Frontotemporal/patología , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/patología , Proteinopatías TDP-43/patología , Degeneración Lobar Frontotemporal/patología , Proteínas de Unión al ADN/genéticaRESUMEN
To better understand the pathological and phenotypic heterogeneity of progressive supranuclear palsy and the links between the two, we applied a novel unsupervised machine learning algorithm (Subtype and Stage Inference) to the largest MRI data set to date of people with clinically diagnosed progressive supranuclear palsy (including progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson and variant progressive supranuclear palsy syndromes). Our cohort is comprised of 426 progressive supranuclear palsy cases, of which 367 had at least one follow-up scan, and 290 controls. Of the progressive supranuclear palsy cases, 357 were clinically diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson, 52 with a progressive supranuclear palsy-cortical variant (progressive supranuclear palsy-frontal, progressive supranuclear palsy-speech/language, or progressive supranuclear palsy-corticobasal), and 17 with a progressive supranuclear palsy-subcortical variant (progressive supranuclear palsy-parkinsonism or progressive supranuclear palsy-progressive gait freezing). Subtype and Stage Inference was applied to volumetric MRI features extracted from baseline structural (T1-weighted) MRI scans and then used to subtype and stage follow-up scans. The subtypes and stages at follow-up were used to validate the longitudinal consistency of subtype and stage assignments. We further compared the clinical phenotypes of each subtype to gain insight into the relationship between progressive supranuclear palsy pathology, atrophy patterns, and clinical presentation. The data supported two subtypes, each with a distinct progression of atrophy: a 'subcortical' subtype, in which early atrophy was most prominent in the brainstem, ventral diencephalon, superior cerebellar peduncles, and the dentate nucleus, and a 'cortical' subtype, in which there was early atrophy in the frontal lobes and the insula alongside brainstem atrophy. There was a strong association between clinical diagnosis and the Subtype and Stage Inference subtype with 82% of progressive supranuclear palsy-subcortical cases and 81% of progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson cases assigned to the subcortical subtype and 82% of progressive supranuclear palsy-cortical cases assigned to the cortical subtype. The increasing stage was associated with worsening clinical scores, whilst the 'subcortical' subtype was associated with worse clinical severity scores compared to the 'cortical subtype' (progressive supranuclear palsy rating scale and Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale). Validation experiments showed that subtype assignment was longitudinally stable (95% of scans were assigned to the same subtype at follow-up) and individual staging was longitudinally consistent with 90% remaining at the same stage or progressing to a later stage at follow-up. In summary, we applied Subtype and Stage Inference to structural MRI data and empirically identified two distinct subtypes of spatiotemporal atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy. These image-based subtypes were differentially enriched for progressive supranuclear palsy clinical syndromes and showed different clinical characteristics. Being able to accurately subtype and stage progressive supranuclear palsy patients at baseline has important implications for screening patients on entry to clinical trials, as well as tracking disease progression.
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TAR DNA-binding protein-43 (TDP-43) accumulation is the primary pathology underlying several neurodegenerative diseases. Charting the progression and heterogeneity of TDP-43 accumulation is necessary to better characterise TDP-43 proteinopathies, but current TDP-43 staging systems are heuristic and assume each syndrome is homogeneous. Here, we use data-driven disease progression modelling to derive a fine-grained empirical staging system for the classification and differentiation of frontotemporal lobar degeneration due to TDP-43 (FTLD-TDP, n=126), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, n=141) and limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC) with and without Alzheimerâ™s disease (n=304). The data-driven staging of ALS and FTLD-TDP complement and extend previously described human-defined staging schema for ALS and behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia. In LATE-NC individuals, progression along data-driven stages was positively associated with age, but negatively associated with age in individuals with FTLD-TDP. Using only regional TDP-43 severity, our data driven model distinguished individuals diagnosed with ALS, FTLD-TDP or LATE-NC with a cross-validated accuracy of 85.9%, with misclassifications associated with mixed pathological diagnosis, age and genetic mutations. Adding age and SuStaIn stage to this model increased accuracy to 92.3%. Our model differentiates LATE-NC from FTLD-TDP, though some overlap was observed between late-stage LATE-NC and early-stage FTLD-TDP. We further tested for the presence of subtypes with distinct regional TDP-43 progression patterns within each diagnostic group, identifying two distinct cortical-predominant and brainstem-predominant subtypes within FTLD-TDP and a further two subcortical-predominant and corticolimbic-predominant subtypes within ALS. The FTLD-TDP subtypes exhibited differing proportions of TDP-43 type, while there was a trend for age differing between ALS subtypes. Interestingly, a negative relationship between age and SuStaIn stage was seen in the brainstem/subcortical-predominant subtype of each proteinopathy. No subtypes were observed for the LATE-NC group, despite aggregating AD+ and AD-individuals and a larger sample size for this group. Overall, we provide an empirical pathological TDP-43 staging system for ALS, FTLD-TDP and LATE-NC, which yielded accurate classification. We further demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst ALS and FTLD-TDP progression patterns that warrants further investigation in larger cross-cohort studies.
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Progressive disorders are highly heterogeneous. Symptom-based clinical classification of these disorders may not reflect the underlying pathobiology. Data-driven subtyping and staging of patients has the potential to disentangle the complex spatiotemporal patterns of disease progression. Tools that enable this are in high demand from clinical and treatment-development communities. Here we describe the pySuStaIn software package, a Python-based implementation of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm. SuStaIn unravels the complexity of heterogeneous diseases by inferring multiple disease progression patterns (subtypes) and individual severity (stages) from cross-sectional data. The primary aims of pySuStaIn are to enable widespread application and translation of SuStaIn via an accessible Python package that supports simple extension and generalization to novel modelling situations within a single, consistent architecture.
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MRI-derived features of presumed cerebral small vessel disease are frequently found in Alzheimer's disease. Influences of such markers on disease-progression measures are poorly understood. We measured markers of presumed small vessel disease (white matter hyperintensity volumes; cerebral microbleeds) on baseline images of newly enrolled individuals in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort (GO and 2) and used linear mixed models to relate these to subsequent atrophy and neuropsychological score change. We also assessed heterogeneity in white matter hyperintensity positioning within biomarker abnormality sequences, driven by the data, using the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm. This study recruited both sexes and included: controls: [n = 159, mean(SD) age = 74(6) years]; early and late mild cognitive impairment [ns = 265 and 139, respectively, mean(SD) ages =71(7) and 72(8) years, respectively]; Alzheimer's disease [n = 103, mean(SD) age = 75(8)] and significant memory concern [n = 72, mean(SD) age = 72(6) years]. Baseline demographic and vascular risk-factor data, and longitudinal cognitive scores (Mini-Mental State Examination; logical memory; and Trails A and B) were collected. Whole-brain and hippocampal volume change metrics were calculated. White matter hyperintensity volumes were associated with greater whole-brain and hippocampal volume changes independently of cerebral microbleeds (a doubling of baseline white matter hyperintensity was associated with an increase in atrophy rate of 0.3 ml/year for brain and 0.013 ml/year for hippocampus). Cerebral microbleeds were found in 15% of individuals and the presence of a microbleed, as opposed to none, was associated with increases in atrophy rate of 1.4 ml/year for whole brain and 0.021 ml/year for hippocampus. White matter hyperintensities were predictive of greater decline in all neuropsychological scores, while cerebral microbleeds were predictive of decline in logical memory (immediate recall) and Mini-Mental State Examination scores. We identified distinct groups with specific sequences of biomarker abnormality using continuous baseline measures and brain volume change. Four clusters were found; Group 1 showed early Alzheimer's pathology; Group 2 showed early neurodegeneration; Group 3 had early mixed Alzheimer's and cerebrovascular pathology; Group 4 had early neuropsychological score abnormalities. White matter hyperintensity volumes becoming abnormal was a late event for Groups 1 and 4 and an early event for 2 and 3. In summary, white matter hyperintensities and microbleeds were independently associated with progressive neurodegeneration (brain atrophy rates) and cognitive decline (change in neuropsychological scores). Mechanisms involving white matter hyperintensities and progression and microbleeds and progression may be partially separate. Distinct sequences of biomarker progression were found. White matter hyperintensity development was an early event in two sequences.
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Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) is an unsupervised learning algorithm that uniquely enables the identification of subgroups of individuals with distinct pseudo-temporal disease progression patterns from cross-sectional datasets. SuStaIn has been used to identify data-driven subgroups and perform patient stratification in neurodegenerative diseases and in lung diseases from continuous biomarker measurements predominantly obtained from imaging. However, the SuStaIn algorithm is not currently applicable to discrete ordinal data, such as visual ratings of images, neuropathological ratings, and clinical and neuropsychological test scores, restricting the applicability of SuStaIn to a narrower range of settings. Here we propose 'Ordinal SuStaIn', an ordinal version of the SuStaIn algorithm that uses a scored events model of disease progression to enable the application of SuStaIn to ordinal data. We demonstrate the validity of Ordinal SuStaIn by benchmarking the performance of the algorithm on simulated data. We further demonstrate that Ordinal SuStaIn out-performs the existing continuous version of SuStaIn (Z-score SuStaIn) on discrete scored data, providing much more accurate subtype progression patterns, better subtyping and staging of individuals, and accurate uncertainty estimates. We then apply Ordinal SuStaIn to six different sub-scales of the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (CDR) using data from the Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study to identify individuals with distinct patterns of functional decline. Using data from 819 ADNI1 participants we identified three distinct CDR subtype progression patterns, which were independently verified using data from 790 ADNI2 participants. Our results provide insight into patterns of decline in daily activities in Alzheimer's disease and a mechanism for stratifying individuals into groups with difficulties in different domains. Ordinal SuStaIn is broadly applicable across different types of ratings data, including visual ratings from imaging, neuropathological ratings and clinical or behavioural ratings data.
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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder which spans several years from preclinical manifestations to dementia. In recent years, interest in the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to personalized medicine has grown considerably, and a major challenge that such models face is the transferability from the research settings to clinical practice. The objective of this work was to demonstrate the transferability of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model from well-characterized research data set, employed as training set, to independent less-structured and heterogeneous test sets representative of the clinical setting. The training set was composed of MRI data of 1043 subjects from the Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and the test set was composed of data from 767 subjects from OASIS, Pharma-Cog, and ViTA clinical datasets. Both sets included subjects covering the entire spectrum of AD, and for both sets volumes of relevant brain regions were derived from T1-3D MRI scans processed with Freesurfer v5.3 cross-sectional stream. In order to assess the predictive value of the model, subpopulations of subjects with stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and MCIs that progressed to AD dementia (pMCI) were identified in both sets. SuStaIn identified three disease subtypes, of which the most prevalent corresponded to the typical atrophy pattern of AD. The other SuStaIn subtypes exhibited similarities with the previously defined hippocampal sparing and limbic predominant atrophy patterns of AD. Subject subtyping proved to be consistent in time for all cohorts and the staging provided by the model was correlated with cognitive performance. Classification of subjects on the basis of a combination of SuStaIn subtype and stage, mini mental state examination and amyloid-ß1-42 cerebrospinal fluid concentration was proven to predict conversion from MCI to AD dementia on par with other novel statistical algorithms, with ROC curves that were not statistically different for the training and test sets and with area under curve respectively equal to 0.77 and 0.76. This study proves the transferability of a SuStaIn model for AD from research data to less-structured clinical cohorts, and indicates transferability to the clinical setting.
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Mutations in the MAPT gene cause frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Most previous studies investigating the neuroanatomical signature of MAPT mutations have grouped all different mutations together and shown an association with focal atrophy of the temporal lobe. The variability in atrophy patterns between each particular MAPT mutation is less well-characterized. We aimed to investigate whether there were distinct groups of MAPT mutation carriers based on their neuroanatomical signature. METHODS: We applied Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn), an unsupervised machine learning technique that identifies groups of individuals with distinct progression patterns, to characterize patterns of regional atrophy in MAPT-associated FTD within the Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI) cohort study. RESULTS: Eighty-two MAPT mutation carriers were analyzed, the majority of whom had P301L, IVS10+16, or R406W mutations, along with 48 healthy noncarriers. SuStaIn identified 2 groups of MAPT mutation carriers with distinct atrophy patterns: a temporal subtype, in which atrophy was most prominent in the hippocampus, amygdala, temporal cortex, and insula; and a frontotemporal subtype, in which atrophy was more localized to the lateral temporal lobe and anterior insula, as well as the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate. There was one-to-one mapping between IVS10+16 and R406W mutations and the temporal subtype and near one-to-one mapping between P301L mutations and the frontotemporal subtype. There were differences in clinical symptoms and neuropsychological test scores between subtypes: the temporal subtype was associated with amnestic symptoms, whereas the frontotemporal subtype was associated with executive dysfunction. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that different MAPT mutations give rise to distinct atrophy patterns and clinical phenotype, providing insights into the underlying disease biology and potential utility for patient stratification in therapeutic trials.
Asunto(s)
Demencia Frontotemporal/genética , Demencia Frontotemporal/patología , Aprendizaje Automático , Proteínas tau/genética , Adulto , Anciano , Atrofia/genética , Atrofia/patología , Encéfalo/patología , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Femenino , Humanos , Interpretación de Imagen Asistida por Computador/métodos , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mutación , Neuroimagen/métodosRESUMEN
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by the spread of tau pathology throughout the cerebral cortex. This spreading pattern was thought to be fairly consistent across individuals, although recent work has demonstrated substantial variability in the population with AD. Using tau-positron emission tomography scans from 1,612 individuals, we identified 4 distinct spatiotemporal trajectories of tau pathology, ranging in prevalence from 18 to 33%. We replicated previously described limbic-predominant and medial temporal lobe-sparing patterns, while also discovering posterior and lateral temporal patterns resembling atypical clinical variants of AD. These 'subtypes' were stable during longitudinal follow-up and were replicated in a separate sample using a different radiotracer. The subtypes presented with distinct demographic and cognitive profiles and differing longitudinal outcomes. Additionally, network diffusion models implied that pathology originates and spreads through distinct corticolimbic networks in the different subtypes. Together, our results suggest that variation in tau pathology is common and systematic, perhaps warranting a re-examination of the notion of 'typical AD' and a revisiting of tau pathological staging.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Alzheimer/patología , Corteza Cerebral/patología , Disfunción Cognitiva/patología , Proteínas tau/metabolismo , Anciano , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/clasificación , Carbolinas/farmacología , Corteza Cerebral/diagnóstico por imagen , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Neuroimagen/métodos , Fenotipo , Tomografía de Emisión de Positrones/métodos , Radiofármacos/administración & dosificación , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
Multiple sclerosis (MS) can be divided into four phenotypes based on clinical evolution. The pathophysiological boundaries of these phenotypes are unclear, limiting treatment stratification. Machine learning can identify groups with similar features using multidimensional data. Here, to classify MS subtypes based on pathological features, we apply unsupervised machine learning to brain MRI scans acquired in previously published studies. We use a training dataset from 6322 MS patients to define MRI-based subtypes and an independent cohort of 3068 patients for validation. Based on the earliest abnormalities, we define MS subtypes as cortex-led, normal-appearing white matter-led, and lesion-led. People with the lesion-led subtype have the highest risk of confirmed disability progression (CDP) and the highest relapse rate. People with the lesion-led MS subtype show positive treatment response in selected clinical trials. Our findings suggest that MRI-based subtypes predict MS disability progression and response to treatment and may be used to define groups of patients in interventional trials.