Methods and participant characteristics in the Cancer Risk in Vegetarians Consortium: a cross-sectional analysis across 11 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: The associations of vegetarian diets with risks for site-specific cancers have not been estimated reliably due to the low number of vegetarians in previous studies. Therefore, the Cancer Risk in Vegetarians Consortium was established. The aim is to describe and compare the baseline characteristics between non-vegetarian and vegetarian diet groups and between the collaborating studies. METHODS: We harmonised individual-level data from 11 prospective cohort studies from Western Europe, North America, South Asia and East Asia. Comparisons of food intakes, sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were made between diet groups and between cohorts using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: 2.3 million participants were included; 66% women and 34% men, with mean ages at recruitment of 57 (SD: 7.8) and 57 (8.6) years, respectively. There were 2.1 million meat eaters, 60,903 poultry eaters, 44,780 pescatarians, 81,165 vegetarians, and 14,167 vegans. Food intake differences between the diet groups varied across the cohorts; for example, fruit and vegetable intakes were generally higher in vegetarians than in meat eaters in all the cohorts except in China. BMI was generally lower in vegetarians, particularly vegans, except for the cohorts in India and China. In general, but with some exceptions, vegetarians were also more likely to be highly educated and physically active and less likely to smoke. In the available resurveys, stability of diet groups was high in all the cohorts except in China. CONCLUSIONS: Food intakes and lifestyle factors of both non-vegetarians and vegetarians varied markedly across the individual cohorts, which may be due to differences in both culture and socioeconomic status, as well as differences in questionnaire design. Therefore, care is needed in the interpretation of the impacts of vegetarian diets on cancer risk.

Prevalence and incidence of hepatitis E infection in China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: China is an endemic area for HEV infection. Estimating the prevalence and incidence of HEV infection in China plays a pivotal role in informing public health policies to prevent and control hepatitis E. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of anti-HEV IgG and incidence of HEV seroconversion in China. METHODS: This study was based on the Meinian health check-up database in China. Participants who underwent testing for anti-HEV IgG at check-up centers in 24 provinces between 2017 and 2022 were included. In the cross-sectional analyses, overall prevalence and stratified prevalence in subpopulations with various characteristics were estimated and standardized according to the 2020 census of the Chinese population. In the longitudinal analyses, the occurrence of anti-HEV IgG positivity during the follow-up was defined as an incident HEV seroconversion. Overall and stratified incidence rates were estimated and expressed as per 100 person-years. Poisson regression was used to explore risk factors associated with HEV seroconversion. RESULTS: 85,238 and 11,154 participants were included in the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, respectively. The prevalence of anti-HEV IgG in the general population was 18.02%. During a median follow-up of 1.2 years, the incidence rate of HEV seroconversion was 1.79 per 100 person-years. Age ≥ 60 years, low socioeconomic status, living in coastal areas, living in areas with high drainage density, and living in areas with high anti-HEV IgG prevalence were independent risk factors for HEV seroconversion. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings would help inform policy making for hepatitis E prevention and control in China, as well as in other endemic regions of the world.

Prevalence of anemia of varying severity, geographic variations, and association with metabolic factors among women of reproductive age in China: a nationwide, population-based study.

To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of anemia of varying severity among women of reproductive age, we conducted a nationwide, cross-sectional study between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2019, including 4 184 547 nonpregnant women aged 18-49 years from all 31 provinces in the mainland of China. Anemia was defined as having hemoglobin concentration < 120.0 g/L and categorized as mild, moderate, and severe. Multivariate logistic models with cluster effect were used to explore the association of anemia and metabolic risk factors. The standardized prevalence of anemia and moderate and worse anemia among women of reproductive age in China was 15.8% (95% CI 15.1%-16.6%) and 6.6% (6.3%-7.0%), respectively. The prevalence of anemia and the proportion of moderate and worse anemia significantly increased with age. We also observed great geographic variations in the prevalence of anemia, with a high likelihood in south, central, and northwest China. Moderate and/or severe anemia was positively associated with overweight and obesity, diabetes, and impaired kidney function. In conclusion, anemia remains a significant challenge for women of reproductive age in China. Geographic variations and metabolic risk factors should be considered in the comprehensive and targeting strategy for anemia reduction.

Adherence to a Healthy Diet and Risk of Multiple Carotid Atherosclerosis Subtypes: Insights from the China MJ Health Check-Up Cohort.

AIM: Early-stage phenotypes of carotid atherosclerosis (CAS), such as increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), and advanced-stage phenotypes, such as carotid plaque (CP), are at risk for adverse ischemic stroke events. There is limited evidence regarding the causal association between dietary patterns and the risk of CAS in Chinese adults. We therefore examined multiple dietary patterns associated with the risk of CAS and identified the optimal dietary pattern for preventing CAS. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from the prospective MJ Health Check-up Study (2004-2020), including 13,989 participants 18-80 years of age without CAS. The dietary intake was measured using validated food frequency questionnaires, and dietary pattern scores were calculated for four a priori and four a posteriori dietary patterns. The Cox model was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) relating various dietary pattern scores to the risk of CAS. RESULTS: During 43,903.4 person-years of follow-up, 3732 incidents of increased cIMT and 2861 incident CP events were documented. Overall, the seven dietary patterns, except for the high-protein diet, exhibited significant associations with the risk of increased cIMT and CP. Comparing the highest and lowest quartiles, the a posteriori high-fiber dietary pattern (HFIDP) score demonstrated the strongest inverse associations with the risk of increased cIMT (HR 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.71]) and CP (HR 0.65 [95% CI 0.59-0.73]); conversely, another a posteriori high-fat dietary pattern (HFADP; i.e., incorporating high-fat and processed foods) demonstrated the strongest positive associations with the risk of increased cIMT (HR 1.96 [95% CI 1.75-2.20]) and CP (HR 1.83 [95% CI 1.61-2.08]) (all p for trend < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple dietary patterns are significantly associated with the risk of early- and advanced-stage phenotypes of CAS. Notably, a high adherence to an HFIDP and low adherence to an HFADP may confer the greatest risk reduction for CAS.

One-size-fits-all versus risk-category-based screening interval strategies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Chinese adults: a prospective cohort study.

Background: In non-high-risk individuals, risk-category-based atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) screening strategies may be more cost-effective than one-size-fits-all approaches. However, current decisions are constrained by a lack of research evidence. We aimed to explore appropriate risk-category-based screening interval strategies for non-high-risk individuals in ASCVD primary prevention in the Chinese population. Methods: We used data from 28,624 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who had completed at least two field surveys. The risk assessment tools were the 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed based on the CKB cohort. We constructed multistate Markov models to model disease progression and estimate transition probabilities between different risk categories. The total person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk state over a 10-year period were calculated for each screening interval protocol. We also estimated the number of ASCVD events prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs saved when compared to the 3-yearly screening protocol. Findings: When compared to the uniform 3-yearly protocol, most risk-category-based screening interval protocols would identify more high-risk individuals timely, thus preventing more ASCVD events and gaining QALYs. A few of them would reduce total health-care costs. The protocol, which used 6-year, 3-year, and 2-year screening intervals for low-risk, intermediate-low-risk, and intermediate-high risk individuals, was optimal, and would reduce the person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk category by 17.9% (95% CI: 13.1%-21.9%), thus preventing an estimated 113 thousand (95% CI: 83-138) hard ASCVD events for Chinese adults aged 30-79 over a 10-year period. When using a lower cost of statin therapy, more screening protocols would gain QALYs while saving costs. Interpretation: For the primary prevention of ASCVD, risk-category-based screening protocols outperformed the one-size-fits-all approach in the Chinese population. Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82388102, 82192900) and grants (2023YFC2509400) from the National Key R&D Program of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303, 81941018), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01).

Associations between circulating proteins and cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational and Mendelian randomisation studies.

BACKGROUND: Integration of large proteomics and genetic data in population-based studies can provide insights into discovery of novel biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets for cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). We aimed to synthesise existing evidence on the observational and genetic associations between circulating proteins and CMD. METHODS: PubMed, Embase and Web of Science were searched until July 2023 for potentially relevant prospective observational and Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies investigating associations between circulating proteins and CMD, including coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation and atherosclerosis. Two investigators independently extracted study characteristics using a standard form and pooled data using random effects models. RESULTS: 50 observational, 25 MR and 10 studies performing both analyses were included, involving 26 414 160 non-overlapping participants. Meta-analysis of observational studies revealed 560 proteins associated with CMD, of which 133 proteins were associated with ≥2 CMDs (ie, pleiotropic). There were 245 potentially causal protein biomarkers identified in MR pooled results, involving 23 pleiotropic proteins. IL6RA and MMP12 were each causally associated with seven diseases. 22 protein-disease pairs showed directionally concordant associations in observational and MR pooled estimates. Addition of protein biomarkers to traditional clinical models modestly improved the accuracy of predicting incident CMD, with the highest improvement for heart failure (ΔC-index ~0.2). Of the 245 potentially causal proteins (291 protein-disease pairs), 3 pairs were validated by evidence of drug development from existing drug databases, 288 pairs lacked evidence of drug development and 66 proteins were drug targets approved for other indications. CONCLUSIONS: Combined analyses of observational and genetic studies revealed the potential causal role of several proteins in the aetiology of CMD. Novel protein biomarkers are promising targets for drug development and risk stratification. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022350327.

Five years of change in adult twins: longitudinal changes of genetic and environmental influence on epigenetic clocks.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic clocks were known as promising biomarkers of aging, including original clocks trained by individual CpG sites and principal component (PC) clocks trained by PCs of CpG sites. The effects of genetic and environmental factors on epigenetic clocks are still unclear, especially for PC clocks. METHODS: We constructed univariate twin models in 477 same-sex twin pairs from the Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR) to estimate the heritability of five epigenetic clocks (GrimAge, PhenoAge, DunedinPACE, PCGrimAge, and PCPhenoAge). Besides, we investigated the longitudinal changes of genetic and environmental influences on epigenetic clocks across 5 years in 134 same-sex twin pairs. RESULTS: Heritability of epigenetic clocks ranged from 0.45 to 0.70, and those for PC clocks were higher than those for original clocks. For five epigenetic clocks, the longitudinal stability was moderate to high and was largely due to genetic effects. The genetic correlations between baseline and follow-up epigenetic clocks were moderate to high. Special unique environmental factors emerged both at baseline and at follow-up. PC clocks showed higher longitudinal stability and unique environmental correlations than original clocks. CONCLUSIONS: For five epigenetic clocks, they have the potential to identify aging interventions. High longitudinal stability is mainly due to genetic factors, and changes of epigenetic clocks over time are primarily due to changes in unique environmental factors. Given the disparities in genetic and environmental factors as well as longitudinal stability between PC and original clocks, the results of studies with original clocks need to be further verified with PC clocks.

Spicy food consumption and risk of vascular disease: Evidence from a large-scale Chinese prospective cohort of 0.5 million people.

BACKGROUND: Spicy food consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with mortality from multiple diseases. However, the effect of spicy food intake on the incidence of vascular diseases in the Chinese population remains unclear. This study was conducted to explore this association. METHODS: This study was performed using the large-scale China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) prospective cohort of 486,335 participants. The primary outcomes were vascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), major coronary events (MCEs), cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and non-stroke cerebrovascular disease. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the association between spicy food consumption and incident vascular diseases. Subgroup analysis was also performed to evaluate the heterogeneity of the association between spicy food consumption and the risk of vascular disease stratified by several basic characteristics. In addition, the joint effects of spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of vascular disease were also evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the reliability of the association results. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 12.1 years, a total of 136,125 patients with vascular disease, 46,689 patients with IHD, 10,097 patients with MCEs, 80,114 patients with cerebrovascular disease, 56,726 patients with stroke, and 40,098 patients with non-stroke cerebrovascular disease were identified. Participants who consumed spicy food 1-2 days/week (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = [0.93, 0.97], P <0.001), 3-5 days/week (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = [0.94, 0.99], P = 0.003), and 6-7 days/week (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.002) had a significantly lower risk of vascular disease than those who consumed spicy food less than once a week (Ptrend <0.001), especially in those who were younger and living in rural areas. Notably, the disease-based subgroup analysis indicated that the inverse associations remained in IHD (Ptrend = 0.011) and MCEs (Ptrend = 0.002) risk. Intriguingly, there was an interaction effect between spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of IHD (Pinteraction = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support an inverse association between spicy food consumption and vascular disease in the Chinese population, which may provide additional dietary guidance for the prevention of vascular diseases.

Association between socioeconomic status and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Socioeconomic status (SES) has been proven to be associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Western populations, but the evidence is very limited in China. This study aimed to investigate the association between SES and the risk of COPD incident. METHODS: This study was based on the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) project in Wuzhong District, Suzhou. A total of 45,484 adults aged 30-79 were included in the analysis during 2004-2008. We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the association between SES and the risk of COPD. Household income, education, private property and consumption potential was used to measure SES. Incident COPD cases were ascertained using hospitalization records, death certificates, and active follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 524 COPD cases were identified during a median follow-up of 11.2 years. Household income was inversely associated with the risk of COPD (Ptrend<0.005). The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident COPD were 0.88 (0.69-1.14), 0.77 (0.60-0.99), and 0.42 (0.31-0.57) for participants with annual household income of 10,000 ~ 19,999 yuan, 20,000 ~ 34,999 yuan and ≥ 35,000 yuan respectively, in comparison to participants with an annual household income < 10,000 yuan. Furthermore, we found that education level, refrigerator use, private toilet, private phone, and motor vehicle were adversely associated with COPD risk, while ownership of newly renovated flats was positively correlated with COPD incident. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective study suggests that SES is associated with the risk of COPD in Chinese adults. Population-based COPD prevention strategies tailored for people with different SES could help reduce the burden of COPD in Chinese.

Prospective evaluation of the relevance of Epstein-Barr virus antibodies for early detection of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a major cause of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and measurement of different EBV antibodies in blood may improve early detection of NPC. Prospective studies can help assess the roles of different EBV antibodies in predicting NPC risk over time. METHODS: A case-cohort study within the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank of 512 715 adults from 10 (including two NPC endemic) areas included 295 incident NPC cases and 745 subcohort participants. A multiplex serology assay was used to quantify IgA and IgG antibodies against 16 EBV antigens in stored baseline plasma samples. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for NPC and C-statistics to assess the discriminatory ability of EBV-markers, including two previously identified EBV-marker combinations, for predicting NPC. RESULTS: Sero-positivity for 15 out of 16 EBV-markers was significantly associated with higher NPC risk. Both IgA and IgG antibodies against the same three EBV-markers showed the most extreme HRs, i.e. BGLF2 (IgA: 124.2 (95% CI: 63.3-243.9); IgG: 8.6 (5.5-13.5); LF2: [67.8 (30.0-153.1), 10.9 (7.2-16.4)]); and BFRF1: 26.1 (10.1-67.5), 6.1 (2.7-13.6). Use of a two-marker (i.e. LF2/BGLF2 IgG) and a four-marker (i.e. LF2/BGLF2 IgG and LF2/EA-D IgA) combinations yielded C-statistics of 0.85 and 0.84, respectively, which persisted for at least 5 years after sample collection in both endemic and non-endemic areas. CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese adults, plasma EBV markers strongly predict NPC occurrence many years before clinical diagnosis. LF2 and BGLF2 IgG could identify NPC high-risk individuals to improve NPC early detection in community and clinical settings.

Incidence and mortality rates of 14 site-specific infectious diseases in 10 diverse areas of China: findings from China Kadoorie Biobank, 2006-2018.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases remain a major global health concern, including in China, with an estimated >10 million cases of infectious disease in 2019. We describe the burden of site-specific infectious diseases among Chinese adults. METHODS: From 2004 to 2008, the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512,726 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 diverse areas (5 rural, 5 urban) of China. During the 12 years of follow-up, 101,673 participants were hospitalized for any infectious disease. Descriptive analyses examined standardized incidence, mortality and case fatality of infections. FINDINGS: The incidence of any infectious disease was 1856 per 100,000 person-years; respiratory tract infections (1069) were most common. The infectious disease mortality rate was 31.8 per 100,000 person-years (20.3 and 9.4 for respiratory and non-respiratory infections, respectively) and case fatality was 2.2% (2.6% and 1.6% for respiratory and non-respiratory infections, respectively). Infectious disease incidence and mortality rates were higher at older ages and in rural areas. There were no clear sex differences in infectious disease incidence rates, but mortality and case fatality rates were twice as high in men as in women. INTERPRETATION: Infectious diseases were common in Chinese adults. The observed burden of, and disparities in, site-specific infections can inform targeted prevention efforts. FUNDING: Kadoorie Foundation, Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, MoST, NNSF.

Causal relevance of different blood pressure traits on risk of cardiovascular diseases: GWAS and Mendelian randomisation in 100,000 Chinese adults.

Elevated blood pressure (BP) is major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry have identified >2,000 BP-associated loci, but other ancestries have been less well-studied. We conducted GWAS of systolic, diastolic, pulse, and mean arterial BP in 100,453 Chinese adults. We identified 128 non-overlapping loci associated with one or more BP traits, including 74 newly-reported associations. Despite strong genetic correlations between populations, we identified appreciably higher heritability and larger variant effect sizes in Chinese compared with European or Japanese ancestry populations. Using instruments derived from these GWAS, multivariable Mendelian randomisation demonstrated that BP traits contribute differently to the causal associations of BP with CVD. In particular, only pulse pressure was independently causally associated with carotid plaque. These findings reinforce the need for studies in diverse populations to understand the genetic determinants of BP traits and their roles in disease risk.

Development and evaluation of a risk prediction tool for risk-adapted screening of colorectal cancer in China.

Risk prediction tools for colorectal cancer (CRC) have potential to improve the efficiency of population-based screening by facilitating risk-adapted strategies. However, such an applicable tool has yet to be established in the Chinese population. In this study, a risk score was created using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide cohort study of 409,854 eligible participants. Diagnostic performance of the risk score was evaluated in an independent CRC screening programme, which included 91,575 participants who accepted colonoscopy at designed hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China. Over a median follow-up of 11.1 years, 3136 CRC cases were documented in the CKB. A risk score was created based on nine questionnaire-derived variables, showing moderate discrimination for 10-year CRC risk (C-statistic = 0.68, 95 % CI: 0.67-0.69). In the CRC screening programme, the detection rates of CRC were 0.25 %, 0.82 %, and 1.93 % in low-risk (score <6), intermediate-risk (score: 6-19), and high-risk (score >19) groups, respectively. The newly developed score exhibited a C-statistic of 0.65 (95 % CI: 0.63-0.66), surpassing the widely adopted tools such as the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), modified APCS, and Korean Colorectal Screening scores (all C-statistics = 0.60). In conclusion, we developed a novel risk prediction tool that is useful to identify individuals at high risk of CRC. A user-friendly online calculator was also constructed to encourage broader adoption of the tool.

Early adulthood BMI and cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study from the China Kadoorie Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The associations of early adulthood BMI with cardiovascular diseases have yet to be completely delineated. There is little reliable evidence about these associations among east Asian populations, that differ in fat distribution, disease patterns, and lifestyle factors from other populations. We aimed to study the associations between early adulthood BMI and cardiovascular diseases in a Chinese population, and the effect of midlife lifestyle factors on outcomes. METHODS: In this prospective analysis, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a large and long-term cohort from five urban areas and five rural areas, using participants aged 35-70 years. The primary outcome was the incidence of cardiovascular diseases as a group, ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke, which were obtained mainly through linkage to disease registries and the national database for health insurance claims. Early adulthood BMI was assessed through self-report at baseline survey. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the prospective associations. We also undertook multiplicative and additive interaction analyses to investigate the potential modification effect of midlife healthy lifestyle factors (a combined score covering smoking, drinking, physical activity, and diet). FINDINGS: Participants were recruited for baseline survey between June, 2004, and July, 2008. During a median follow-up of 12·0 years (IQR 11·3-13·1), we documented 57 203 (15·9%) of incident cardiovascular diseases in 360 855 participants. After adjustment for potential confounders, monotonic dose-response associations were observed between higher early adulthood BMI and increased risks of incident cardiovascular diseases. Compared with an early adulthood BMI of 20·5-22·4 kg/m2 (the reference group), the hazard ratios for a BMI of less than 18·5 kg/m2 was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00), 18·5-20·4 kg/m2 was 0·97 (0·95-0·99), 22·5-23·9 kg/m2 was 1·04 (1·02-1·07), 24·0-25·9 kg/m2 was 1·12 (1·09-1·15), 26·0-27·9 kg/m2 was 1·19 (1·14-1·24), 28·0-29·9 kg/m2 was 1·34 (1·25-1·44), and ≥30·0 kg/m2 was 1·58 (1·42-1·75). Except for haemorrhagic stroke, lower early adulthood BMI (<20·5 kg/m2) was associated with decreased incident cardiovascular disease risks. No significant interaction was found between midlife healthy lifestyle factors and early adulthood BMI on cardiovascular disease risks. INTERPRETATION: Increased risks of cardiovascular disease incidence were found among participants with high early adulthood adiposity, including ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke. Our findings suggest early adulthood as an important time to focus on weight management and obesity prevention for cardiovascular health later in life. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust.

Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province.

Objectives: The characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Methods: This study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30-79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities. Results: The overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19-3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85-53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22-15.31). Conclusion: The prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions.

Helicobacter pylori Treatment and Gastric Cancer Risk Among Individuals With High Genetic Risk for Gastric Cancer.

Importance: Helicobacter pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation may protect against gastric cancer (GC), but whether the beneficial effects only apply to potential genetic subgroups and whether high genetic risk may be counteracted by these chemoprevention strategies remains unknown. Objective: To examine genetic variants associated with the progression of gastric lesions and GC risk and to assess the benefits of H pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation by levels of genetic risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used follow-up data of the Shandong Intervention Trial (SIT, 1989-2022) and China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB, 2004-2018) in China. Based on the SIT, a longitudinal genome-wide association study was conducted to identify genetic variants for gastric lesion progression. Significant variants were examined for incident GC in a randomly sampled set of CKB participants (set 1). Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) combining independent variants were assessed for GC risk in the remaining CKB participants (set 2) and in an independent case-control study in Linqu. Exposures: H pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were the progression of gastric lesions (in SIT only) and the risk of GC. The associations of H pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation with GC were evaluated among SIT participants with different levels of genetic risk. Results: Our analyses included 2816 participants (mean [SD] age, 46.95 [9.12] years; 1429 [50.75%] women) in SIT and 100 228 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.69 [11.00] years; 57 357 [57.23%] women) in CKB, with 147 GC cases in SIT and 825 GC cases in CKB identified during follow-up. A PRS integrating 12 genomic loci associated with gastric lesion progression and incident GC risk was derived, which was associated with GC risk in CKB (highest vs lowest decile of PRS: hazard ratio [HR], 2.54; 95% CI, 1.80-3.57) and further validated in the analysis of 702 case participants and 692 control participants (mean [SD] age, 54.54 [7.66] years; 527 [37.80%] women; odds ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.11-3.05). H pylori treatment was associated with reduced GC risk only for individuals with high genetic risk (top 25% of PRS: HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.82) but not for those with low genetic risk (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.50-1.34; P for interaction = .03). Such effect modification was not found for vitamin (P for interaction = .93) or garlic (P for interaction = .41) supplementation. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study indicate that a high genetic risk of GC may be counteracted by H pylori treatment, suggesting primary prevention could be tailored to genetic risk for more effective prevention.

Dietary factors and patterns in relation to risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis in Chinese: A prospective study of 0.5 million people.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis (UC) in Chinese adults. AIMS: To investigate the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset UC in Chinese. METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study recruited 512,726 participants aged 30-79. Dietary habits were assessed using food frequency questionnaires. Dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis with a principal component method. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 312 cases of newly diagnosed UC were documented (median age of diagnosis 60.1 years). Egg consumption was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for daily vs. never or rarely: 2.29 [95% CI: 1.26-4.16]), while spicy food consumption was inversely associated with risk of UC (HR: 0.63 [0.45-0.88]). The traditional northern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of wheat and low intake of rice, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile of score: 2.79 [1.93-4.05]). The modern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of animal-origin foods and fruits, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR: 2.48 [1.63-3.78]). Population attributable fraction was 13.04% (7.71%-19.11%) for daily/almost daily consumption of eggs and 9.87% (1.94%-18.22%) for never/rarely consumption of spicy food. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the importance of evaluating dietary factors and patterns in the primary prevention of later-onset UC in Chinese adults.

Association between epigenetic age and type 2 diabetes mellitus or glycemic traits: A longitudinal twin study.

Epigenetic clocks based on DNA methylation have been known as biomarkers of aging, including principal component (PC) clocks representing the degree of aging and DunedinPACE representing the pace of aging. Prior studies have shown the associations between epigenetic aging and T2DM, but the results vary by epigenetic age metrics and people. This study explored the associations between epigenetic age metrics and T2DM or glycemic traits, based on 1070 twins (535 twin pairs) from the Chinese National Twin Registry. It also explored the temporal relationships of epigenetic age metrics and glycemic traits in 314 twins (157 twin pairs) who participated in baseline and follow-up visits after a mean of 4.6 years. DNA methylation data were used to calculate epigenetic age metrics, including PCGrimAge acceleration (PCGrimAA), PCPhenoAge acceleration (PCPhenoAA), DunedinPACE, and the longitudinal change rate of PCGrimAge/PCPhenoAge. Mixed-effects and cross-lagged modelling assessed the cross-sectional and temporal relationships between epigenetic age metrics and T2DM or glycemic traits, respectively. In the cross-sectional analysis, positive associations were identified between DunedinPACE and glycemic traits, as well as between PCPhenoAA and fasting plasma glucose, which may be not confounded by shared genetic factors. Cross-lagged models revealed that glycemic traits (fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, and TyG index) preceded DunedinPACE increases, and TyG index preceded PCGrimAA increases. Glycemic traits are positively associated with epigenetic age metrics, especially DunedinPACE. Glycemic traits preceded the increases in DunedinPACE and PCGrimAA. Lowering the levels of glycemic traits may reduce DunedinPACE and PCGrimAA, thereby mitigating age-related comorbidities.

Predictive value of 8-year blood pressure measures in intracerebral hemorrhage risk over 5 years.

AIMS: The relationships between long-term blood pressure (BP) measures and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), as well as their predictive ability on ICH, were unclear. We aimed to investigate the independent associations of multiple BP measures with subsequent 5-year ICH risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction. METHODS: We included 12,398 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who completed three surveys every four to five years. The following long-term BP measures were calculated: mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and cumulative BP exposure (cumBP). Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between these measures and ICH. The potential incremental value of these measures in ICH risk prediction was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI). RESULTS: The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of incident ICH associated with per SD increase in cumSBP and cumDBP were 1.62 (1.25, 2.10) and 1.59 (1.23, 2.07), respectively. When cumBP was added to the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model, the C-statistic change was 0.009 (-0.001, 0.019), the cNRI was 0.267 (0.070, 0.464), and the rIDI was 18.2% (5.8%, 30.7%). Further subgroup analyses revealed a consistent increase in cNRI and rIDI in men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes. Other long-term BP measures showed no statistically significant associations with incident ICH and generally did not improve model performance. CONCLUSION: The nearly 10-year cumBP was positively associated with an increased 5-year risk of ICH and could significantly improve risk reclassification for the ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement.

This prospective cohort study of Chinese adults investigated the independent associations of multiple blood pressure (BP) measures with subsequent 5-year intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction. The cumulative BP exposure (cumBP) was positively associated with subsequent 5-year risk of ICH, independent of the recent single-point SBP and DBP levels.The cumBP could improve the risk reclassification of the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement for all participants, as well as for men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes.