Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts. METHODS: We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions. FINDINGS: The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33-2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84-10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83-11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72-1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594-1056]), China (732 million [456-1499]), the USA (336 million [248-456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151-427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91-2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11-2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (-6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82-8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27-9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Neuronal adaptation translates stimulus gaps into a population code.

Neurons in sensory pathways exhibit a vast multitude of adaptation behaviors, which are assumed to aid the encoding of temporal stimulus features and provide the basis for a population code in higher brain areas. Here we study the transition to a population code for auditory gap stimuli both in neurophysiological recordings and in a computational network model. Independent component analysis (ICA) of experimental data from the inferior colliculus of Mongolian gerbils reveals that the network encodes different gap sizes primarily with its population firing rate within 30 ms after the presentation of the gap, where longer gap size evokes higher network activity. We then developed a computational model to investigate possible mechanisms of how to generate the population code for gaps. Phenomenological (ICA) and functional (discrimination performance) analyses of our simulated networks show that the experimentally observed patterns may result from heterogeneous adaptation, where adaptation provides gap detection at the single neuron level and neuronal heterogeneity ensures discriminable population codes for the whole range of gap sizes in the input. Furthermore, our work suggests that network recurrence additionally enhances the network's ability to provide discriminable population patterns.

Recurrent coupling improves discrimination of temporal spike patterns.

Despite the ubiquitous presence of recurrent synaptic connections in sensory neuronal systems, their general functional purpose is not well understood. A recent conceptual advance has been achieved by theories of reservoir computing in which recurrent networks have been proposed to generate short-term memory as well as to improve neuronal representation of the sensory input for subsequent computations. Here, we present a numerical study on the distinct effects of inhibitory and excitatory recurrence in a canonical linear classification task. It is found that both types of coupling improve the ability to discriminate temporal spike patterns as compared to a purely feed-forward system, although in different ways. For a large class of inhibitory networks, the network's performance is optimal as long as a fraction of roughly 50% of neurons per stimulus is active in the resulting population code. Thereby the contribution of inactive neurons to the neural code is found to be even more informative than that of the active neurons, generating an inherent robustness of classification performance against temporal jitter of the input spikes. Excitatory couplings are found to not only produce a short-term memory buffer but also to improve linear separability of the population patterns by evoking more irregular firing as compared to the purely inhibitory case. As the excitatory connectivity becomes more sparse, firing becomes more variable, and pattern separability improves. We argue that the proposed paradigm is particularly well-suited as a conceptual framework for processing of sensory information in the auditory pathway.

Nanoscale structural engineering via phase segregation: Au-Ge system.

A tunable structural engineering of nanowires based on template-assisted alloying and phase segregation processes is demonstrated. The Au-Ge system, which has a low eutectic temperature and negligible solid solubility (<10(-3) atom %) of Au in Ge at low temperatures, is utilized. Depending on the Au concentration of the initial nanowires, final structures ranging from nearly periodic nanodisk patterns to core/shell and fully alloyed nanowires are produced. The formation mechanisms are discussed in detail and characterized by in situ transmission electron microscopy and energy-dispersive spectrometry analyses. Electrical measurements illustrate the metallic and semiconducting characteristics of the fully alloyed and alternating Au/Ge nanodisk structures, respectively.

[Photocatalytic degradation of formaldehyde and VOCs in air on the porous nickel mesh coated with nanometer TiO2].

Three different metal ions doped TiO2 photocatalysts, which were prepared by the sol-gel method, were immobilized to porous nickel mesh by coating. The photocatalytic degradation activity of the supported photocatalyst on formaldehyde and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) was investigated. The results show that the nanometer TiO2 has an anatase structure. The photocatalytic degradation rate of formaldehyde and VOCs of 1.5% La3+ doped TiO2 coated on porous nickel mesh at 90 min are: 94% and 87%, higher than undoped TiO2: 83% and 72%, Fe3+ doped TiO2: 62% and 62%, Ag+ doped TiO2: 86% [Chinese character: see text] 81%. The orders of photocatalytic degradation rate on formaldehyde and VOCs with different content of La3+ doped TiO2 are as follows: 1.5% > 1% > 2% > undoped, 1.5% is the optimum La3+ doped content. Decreasing circular wind speed and using 254 nm or 365 nm ultraviolet wavelength will not influence the photocatalytic degradation rate of formaldehyde and VOCs.

Identification and determination of microcystins in source water and waterbloom sample from Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and determine the congener and level of microcystins in the source water of Taihu Lake. METHODS: Improved method of SPE combined with HPLC was employed to detect the concentration and varieties of microcystins in source water and bloom samples collected from Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake. RESULTS: The contents of two predominant microcystin components, MC-RR, and MC-LR, were relatively high in samples during warm months and correlated with the phase of algae growth. The maximum concentrations of MC-RR and MC-LR in water sample reached 3.09 +/- 0.53 microg/L and 2.39 +/- 0.41 microg/L during the period of water bloom in September 2004, respectively. Even without waterbloom, the concentration of MC-LR in source water sample was still higher than the guideline value. CONCLUSION: The status of microcystin pollution in this region is serious and measures to monitor and control the growth of cyanobacteria are urgently needed.

[Calculation method of absolute quantum yields in photocatalytic slurry reactor based on cylindrical light].

Heterogeneous photocatalysis in slurry reactors have the particular characteristic that the catalyst particles not only absorb but also scatter photons so the radiation scattering can not be neglected. However, it is very difficult in mathematics to obtain the rigorous solution of the radiative transfer equation. Consequently present methods, in which the apparent quantum yields can be calculated by employing the incident radiation intensity, always underestimate quantum yields calculations. In this paper, a method is developed to produce absolute values of photocatalytic quantum yields in slurry reactor based on cylindrical UV light source. In a typical laboratory reactor (diameter equal to 5.6 cm and length equal to 10 cm) the values for the photocatalytic degradation of phenol are reported under precisely defined conditions. The true value of the local volumetric rate of photon absorption (LVRPA) can be obtained. It was shown that apparent quantum yields differ from true quantum yields 7.08% and that for the same geometric arrangement, vanishing fraction accounts for 1.1% of the incident radiation. The method can be used to compare reactivity of different catalysts or, for a given catalyst, reactivity with different model compounds and as a principle to design a reactor.

Calculation method of quantum efficiency to TiO2 nanocrystal photocatalysis reaction.

The quantum yield is an important factor to evaluate the efficiency of photoreactor. This article gives an overall calculation method of the quantum efficiency(phi) and the apparent quantum efficiency(phi a) to the TiO2/UV photocatalysis system. Furthermore, for the immobility system (IS), the formulation of the faction of light absorbed by the TiO2 thin film is proposed so as to calculate the quantum efficiency by using the measured value and theoretic calculated value of transmissivity (T). For the suspension system(SS), due to the difficulty to obtain the absorption coefficient (alpha) of TiO2 particulates, the quantum efficiency is calculated by means of the relative photonic efficiency (zeta r) and the standard quantum yield (phi standard).