Preserving the spots: Jaguar (Panthera onca) distribution and priority conservation areas in Colombia.

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is a charismatic species considered Vulnerable in Colombia but yet largely unknown in the country. The species is mostly threatened by the continuous decline in its habitats, mostly derived from deforestation and habitat loss, additional to hunting and conflicts with humans. Thus, the future of jaguars in Colombia depends on protecting and recovering existing habitats. The aims of this study were to 1) evaluate jaguar distribution and identify the remnant patches of habitat in Colombia, 2) define an ecological connectivity network within the country, and 3) propose a priority areas portfolio for the conservation and recovery of jaguars. We used a presence background model for estimating species potential distribution and subsequently identified remaining habitat patches across the country based on land cover and species-specific ecological attributes. We then created an ecological connectivity network based on circuit theory and following a multi-criteria approach identified jaguar priority areas for conservation (JPCA) and recovery (JPRA). Jaguar potential distribution comprises 1103122.43 km2, from which 56.71% maintain suitable patches of potential habitat. We identified 960 corridors between remnant patches of natural or semi-natural vegetation. Based on the criteria, JPCAs with greater importance were identified in each of the five Colombian regions. JPRAs were located mainly towards the Andean and Caribbean regions. These JPCAs and JPRAs could serve as a guide for designing and implementing management strategies for the long-term conservation and recovery of the species in Colombia.

Spotting what's important: Priority areas, connectivity, and conservation of the Northern Tiger Cat (Leopardus tigrinus) in Colombia.

Leopardus tigrinus is among the least known carnivore species in the Neotropics, including considerable taxonomic uncertainty. Here we model the distribution, connectivity and overlap with existing conservation areas for the species in Colombia. Using a Species Distribution Modeling approach, we estimated current potential range of the species in Colombia and identified potential habitat blocks remaining in the country. In addition, we designed a connectivity network across the available cores, using a circuit theory approach, to evaluate habitat linkage. Finally, we defined a prioritization scheme for the remaining habitat cores and assessed the level of coverage of protected areas for the country. L. tigrinus is potentially present across the three Andean branches of Colombia, with still considerable continuous habitat cores, mostly located on the eastern and central Andean ranges. Most habitat cores are theoretically connected, but nearly 15% are isolated. Priority areas were located across the eastern and central ranges, but with very significant and promising cores in the northern eastern and western ranges. Current level of protection indicates nearly 30% of the range is "protected", but only about 25% is under national strict protected areas. Evolution of this coverage showed some periods of significant increase but interestingly the number of cores grew at a faster rate than overall proportion protected, likely indicating numerous discontinuous fragments, and not contiguous functional landscapes. This represents the most updated assessment of the distribution and conservation status for the species in Colombia, and indicates the numerous conservation opportunities, especially in most populated areas of the country. We found unique business environmental passive's opportunities, including compensation and development potential, which are becoming more available in the country.

Connectivity conservation at the crossroads: protected areas versus payments for ecosystem services in conserving connectivity for Colombian carnivores.

Protected areas (PAs) constitute one of the main tools for global landscape conservation. Recently, payments for environmental services (PES) have attracted interest from national and regional governments and are becoming one of the leading conservation policy instruments in tropical countries. However, the degree to which areas designated for PES overlap with areas that are critical for maintaining species' landscape connectivity is rarely evaluated. We estimated habitat distributions and connectivity for 16 of the 22 mammalian carnivores occurring in the Caribbean region of Colombia, and identified the overlap between existing PAs and areas identified as being important for connectivity for these species. We also evaluated the potential impact of creation of new PAs versus new PES areas on conserving connectivity for carnivores. Our results show that PAs cover only a minor percentage of the total area that is important for maintaining connectivity ( x = 26.8 % ± 20.2 s . d . ). On the other hand, PES, if implemented extensively, could contribute substantially to mammalian carnivores' connectivity ( x = 45.4 % ± 12.8 s . d . ). However, in a more realistic scenario with limited conservation investment in which fewer areas are set aside, a strategy based on implementing new PAs seems superior to PES. We argue that prioritizing designation of new PAs will be the most efficient means through which to maintain connectivity.

When are hypotheses useful in ecology and evolution?

Research hypotheses have been a cornerstone of science since before Galileo. Many have argued that hypotheses (1) encourage discovery of mechanisms, and (2) reduce bias-both features that should increase transferability and reproducibility. However, we are entering a new era of big data and highly predictive models where some argue the hypothesis is outmoded. We hypothesized that hypothesis use has declined in ecology and evolution since the 1990s, given the substantial advancement of tools further facilitating descriptive, correlative research. Alternatively, hypothesis use may have become more frequent due to the strong recommendation by some journals and funding agencies that submissions have hypothesis statements. Using a detailed literature analysis (N = 268 articles), we found prevalence of hypotheses in eco-evo research is very low (6.7%-26%) and static from 1990-2015, a pattern mirrored in an extensive literature search (N = 302,558 articles). Our literature review also indicates that neither grant success nor citation rates were related to the inclusion of hypotheses, which may provide disincentive for hypothesis formulation. Here, we review common justifications for avoiding hypotheses and present new arguments based on benefits to the individual researcher. We argue that stating multiple alternative hypotheses increases research clarity and precision, and is more likely to address the mechanisms for observed patterns in nature. Although hypotheses are not always necessary, we expect their continued and increased use will help our fields move toward greater understanding, reproducibility, prediction, and effective conservation of nature.

A forest loss report card for the world's protected areas.

Protected areas are a key tool in the conservation of global biodiversity and carbon stores. We conducted a global test of the degree to which more than 18,000 terrestrial protected areas (totalling 5,293,217 km2) reduce deforestation in relation to unprotected areas. We also derived indices that quantify how well countries' forests are protected, both in terms of forested area protected and effectiveness of protected areas at reducing deforestation, in relation to vertebrate species richness, aboveground forest carbon biomass and background deforestation rates. Overall, protected areas did not eliminate deforestation, but reduced deforestation rates by 41%. Protected area deforestation rates were lowest in small reserves with low background deforestation rates. Critically, we found that after adjusting for effectiveness, only 6.5%-rather than 15.7%-of the world's forests are protected, well below the Aichi Convention on Biological Diversity's 2020 Target of 17%. We propose that global targets for protected areas should include quantitative goals for effectiveness in addition to spatial extent.

Baird's tapir density in high elevation forests of the Talamanca region of Costa Rica.

Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is currently endangered throughout its neotropical range with an expected population decline >50% in the next 30 years. We present the first density estimation of Baird's tapir for the Talamanca mountains of Costa Rica, and one of the first for the country. Ten stations with paired cameras were established in Valle del Silencio within Parque Internacional La Amistad (PILA). Seventy-seven tapir pictures of 15 individuals comprising 25 capture-recapture events were analyzed using mark-recapture techniques. The 100% minimum convex polygon of the sampled area was 5.7 km(2) and the effective sampled area using half mean maximum distances moved by tapirs was 7.16 km(2) . We estimated a tapir density of 2.93 individuals/km(2) which represents the highest density reported for this species. Intermountain valleys can represent unique and important habitats for large mammal species. However, the extent of isolation of this population, potentially constrained by steep slopes of the cordillera, remains unknown. Further genetic and movement studies are required to understand meta-population dynamics and connectivity between lowland and highland areas for Baird's tapir conservation in Costa Rica.