A randomized controlled trial of efficacy and safety of Fecal Microbiota Transplant for preventing recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection.

BACKGROUND: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is the most common cause of healthcare-associated infections in US hospitals with 15%-30% of patients experiencing recurrence. The aim of our randomized, double-blind clinical trial was to assess the efficacy of capsule-delivered fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) versus placebo in reducing recurrent diarrhea and CDI recurrence. The secondary aim was FMT safety assessment. METHODS: Between 2018 and 2022, Veterans across the Veterans Health Administration system with recurrent CDI who responded to antibiotic treatment were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to oral FMT or placebo capsules. Randomization was stratified by number of prior CDI recurrences (1 or ≥2). The primary endpoint was clinical recurrence by day 56, defined as >3 unformed stools daily for ≥2 days with or without laboratory confirmation of C. difficile, or death within 56 days. RESULTS: The study was stopped due to futility after meeting pre-specified criteria. Of 153 participants (76 FMT, 77 placebo) with an average age of 66.5 years, 25 participants (32.9%) in the FMT arm and 23 (29.9%) in the placebo arm experienced the primary endpoint of diarrhea and possible or definite CDI recurrence or death within 56 days of capsule administration (absolute difference 3.0%; 95% CI [-11.7%, 17.7%]). Stratification by number of recurrences revealed no statistically significant differences. There were no clinically important differences in adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: FMT therapy vs. placebo did not reduce CDI recurrence or death at 56 days. There were no meaningful differences in adverse events between treatment groups.

Efficacy and safety of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation in the elderly-The I-70 Study: A randomized clinical trial.

Background: There is conflicting evidence on the efficacy of primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation in the elderly. Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy and safety of ICD implantation in patients 70 years and older. Methods: Patients (n = 167) aged 70 years or older and eligible for ICD implantation were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either optimal medical therapy (OMT) (n = 85) or OMT plus ICD (n = 82). Results: Of the 167 participants (mean age 76.4 years; 165 men), 144 completed the study protocol according to their assigned treatment. Average participant follow-up was 31.5 months. Mortality was similar between the 2 groups: 27 deaths in OMT vs 26 death in ICD (unadjusted hazard ratio 0.92; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.57), but there was a trend favoring the ICD over the first 36 months of follow-up. Rates of sudden death (7 vs 5; P = .81) and all-cause hospitalization (2.65 events per participant in OMT vs 3.09 in ICD; P = .31) were not statistically significantly different. Eleven participants randomized to ICD received appropriate therapy. Five participants received an inappropriate therapy that included at least 1 ICD shock. Conclusion: The study did not recruit to target sample size, and accumulated data did not show benefit of ICD therapy in patients 70 years or older. Future studies similar in design might be feasible but will need to contend with patient treatment preference given the large number of patients who do not want an ICD implanted. Further research is needed to determine whether the ICD is effective in prolonging life among elderly device candidates.

A machine learning case study to predict rare clinical event of interest: imbalanced data, interpretability, and practical considerations.

Accurate prediction of a rare and clinically important event following study treatment has been crucial in drug development. For instance, the rarity of an adverse event is often commensurate with the seriousness of medical consequences, and delayed detection of the rare adverse event can pose significant or even life-threatening health risks to patients. In this machine learning case study, we demonstrate with an example originated from a real clinical trial setting how to define and solve the rare clinical event prediction problem using machine learning in pharmaceutical industry. The unique contributions of this work include the proposal of a six-step investigation framework that facilitates the communication with non-technical stakeholders and the interpretation of the model performance in terms of practical consequences in the context of patient screenings for conducting a future clinical trial. In terms of machine learning methodology, for data splitting into the training and test sets, we adapt the rare-event stratified split approach (from scikit-learn) to further account for group splitting for multiple records of a patient simultaneously. To handle imbalanced data due to rare events in model training, the cost-sensitive learning approach is employed to give more weights to the minor class and the metrics precision together with recall are used to capture prediction performance instead of the raw accuracy rate. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply the state-of-the-art SHAP values to identify important risk factors to improve model interpretability.

Addressing Intergenerational Inequity in Tobacco-Harm: What Helps Children of Smokers to Remain Nonsmokers?

INTRODUCTION: Children of people who smoke are more likely to take up smoking themselves. In Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), adolescent smoking declined dramatically between 2000 and 2016 despite limited change in parental smoking, demonstrating that the cycle can be broken. AIMS AND METHODS: This study aimed to identify modifiable factors associated with never smoking in Year 10 students (14-15 years) who had at least one caregiver who smoked. We used data from the Youth Insights Survey (2016 and 2018, pooled, N = 5,422) and identified students with at least one caregiver (mother, father, grandparent, other caregiver) who smoked (N = 2,205). To investigate modifiable factors potentially associated with nonsmoking we used logistic regression with marginally adjusted prevalence estimates. RESULTS: Overall, 41% of students had at least one caregiver who smoked. In this group, the majority (65%) had never smoked themselves. After adjustment, never-smoking was more prevalent among students attending low-deprivation (more affluent) schools (73% had never smoked) compared to high-deprivation schools (44%); students not exposed to others' smoking inside the home (72%) or in cars (70%) in the past week compared to those exposed (59% and 51%, respectively); and students whose parents would be upset if they were caught smoking (68% vs 49% for those whose parents would not be upset), or who had high self-esteem (69% vs 55% for those with low self-esteem). CONCLUSIONS: Modifiable factors independently associated with non-smoking in adolescents with caregiver(s) who smoked were: nonexposure to smoking inside the home and in cars, parental expectations of nonsmoking, and high self-esteem. IMPLICATIONS: Even in countries like NZ with relatively low adult smoking rates, children's exposure to caregiver smoking may be prevalent, particularly in structurally disadvantaged populations. This study suggests that action to promote smokefree homes and cars, build high self-esteem in young people, and communicate expectations of non-smoking are likely to help children of people who smoke to remain nonsmokers. A comprehensive approach that also addresses "upstream" factors (eg, socioeconomic deprivation) and underlying causes of structural inequity (eg, institutional racism) is needed. Such policy and community action may help to break intergenerational cycles of tobacco use and health inequity.

Efferocytosis by bone marrow mesenchymal stromal cells disrupts osteoblastic differentiation via mitochondrial remodeling.

The efficient clearance of dead and dying cells, efferocytosis, is critical to maintain tissue homeostasis. In the bone marrow microenvironment (BMME), this role is primarily fulfilled by professional bone marrow macrophages, but recent work has shown that mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) act as a non-professional phagocyte within the BMME. However, little is known about the mechanism and impact of efferocytosis on MSCs and on their function. To investigate, we performed flow cytometric analysis of neutrophil uptake by ST2 cells, a murine bone marrow-derived stromal cell line, and in murine primary bone marrow-derived stromal cells. Transcriptional analysis showed that MSCs possess the necessary receptors and internal processing machinery to conduct efferocytosis, with Axl and Tyro3 serving as the main receptors, while MerTK was not expressed. Moreover, the expression of these receptors was modulated by efferocytic behavior, regardless of apoptotic target. MSCs derived from human bone marrow also demonstrated efferocytic behavior, showing that MSC efferocytosis is conserved. In all MSCs, efferocytosis impaired osteoblastic differentiation. Transcriptional analysis and functional assays identified downregulation in MSC mitochondrial function upon efferocytosis. Experimentally, efferocytosis induced mitochondrial fission in MSCs. Pharmacologic inhibition of mitochondrial fission in MSCs not only decreased efferocytic activity but also rescued osteoblastic differentiation, demonstrating that efferocytosis-mediated mitochondrial remodeling plays a critical role in regulating MSC differentiation. This work describes a novel function of MSCs as non-professional phagocytes within the BMME and demonstrates that efferocytosis by MSCs plays a key role in directing mitochondrial remodeling and MSC differentiation. Efferocytosis by MSCs may therefore be a novel mechanism of dysfunction and senescence. Since our data in human MSCs show that MSC efferocytosis is conserved, the consequences of MSC efferocytosis may impact the behavior of these cells in the human skeleton, including bone marrow remodeling and bone loss in the setting of aging, cancer and other diseases.

Increased Incidence of Legionellosis after Improved Diagnostic Methods, New Zealand, 2000-2020.

Legionellosis, notably Legionnaires' disease, is recognized globally and in New Zealand (Aotearoa) as a major cause of community-acquired pneumonia. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and demographic epidemiology and microbiology of Legionnaires' disease in New Zealand by using notification and laboratory-based surveillance data for 2000‒2020. We used Poisson regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% CIs to compare demographic and organism trends over 2 time periods (2000-2009 and 2010-2020). The mean annual incidence rate increased from 1.6 cases/100,000 population for 2000-2009 to 3.9 cases/100,000 population for 2010-2020. This increase corresponded with a change in diagnostic testing from predominantly serology with some culture to almost entirely molecular methods using PCR. There was also a marked shift in the identified dominant causative organism, from Legionella pneumophila to L. longbeachae. Surveillance for legionellosis could be further enhanced by greater use of molecular typing of isolates.

Early-onset smoking and vaping of cannabis: Prevalence, correlates and trends in New Zealand 14-15-year-olds.

INTRODUCTION: Initiating cannabis use at an early age elevates risk of harm. Cannabis vaping is an emerging issue, and it is unknown whether the patterning and correlates of early-onset cannabis vaping differ from those of cannabis smoking. METHODS: We used repeat cross-sectional data from a nationally representative biennial survey (2012-2018) of students aged 14-15 years in New Zealand (N = 11,405), response rate 65% (2012), 64% (2014-2016) and 59% (2018). RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2018 lifetime cannabis use decreased, but regular use (past month, weekly, daily) was stable. Prevalence of past month, weekly and daily use in 2016-2018 (pooled) was 8.6%, 3.4% and 1.5%, respectively. Cannabis vaping was reported by 24% of past month cannabis users. The demographic profile of early-onset cannabis smokers and vapers was similar, with elevated use of both modes among Maori (Indigenous), same- or both-sex attracted students and those in low decile (high-deprivation) schools. Correlates were similar for both modes. Cannabis use was strongly associated with tobacco and alcohol use. The next strongest associations (after adjustment) were exposure to second-hand smoke at home, student income >$50/week and low parental monitoring of whereabouts. Past week social media use, psychological distress and low parental monitoring of spending were also associated with both modes. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset cannabis use is much higher in structurally disadvantaged groups, and among those who use tobacco and alcohol. Comprehensive multisubstance approaches to prevention are indicated in this age group. Efforts to reduce socio-economic inequity and exposure to other risk factors may reduce cannabis-related harm.

Causal inference for longitudinal data based on historical controls.

Use of historical data has become a hot topic recently, considered to provide a way to reduce patient burden, lower drug development cost, and make innovative therapies available to patients earlier. In a single-arm study designed to examine the benefit of an experimental treatment, there is often a desire to compare the outcomes of patients receiving the new intervention with those receiving a control treatment, which can be extracted from sources such as historical trials or electronic medical records. Since the treatment is not randomly assigned, there is a need to adjust for the potential imbalance in key patient characteristics between the current study and historical controls. If the outcome of interest is measured longitudinally and subject to random missing, the required adjustment becomes more complicated. In this paper, we propose a doubly robust adjustment procedure specifically designed for longitudinal data analysis with missing data. The proposed method yields valid analysis results, if either the propensity score model or the mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM) regression model is correctly specified. An extensive numerical study is conducted to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from a real clinical trial comparing with historical data are analyzed as an example applying the proposed procedure.

Risk factors for acute rheumatic fever: A case-control study.

Background: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain an inequitable cause of avoidable suffering and early death in many countries, including among Indigenous Maori and Pacific populations in New Zealand. There is a lack of robust evidence on interventions to prevent ARF. This study aimed to identify modifiable risk factors, with the goal of producing evidence to support policies and programs to decrease rates of ARF. Methods: A case-control study was undertaken in New Zealand using hospitalised, first episode ARF cases meeting a standard case-definition. Population controls (ratio of 3:1) were matched by age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, location, sex, and recruitment month. A comprehensive, pre-tested questionnaire was administered face-to-face by trained interviewers. Findings: The study included 124 cases and 372 controls. Multivariable analysis identified strong associations between ARF and household crowding (OR 3·88; 95%CI 1·68-8·98) and barriers to accessing primary health care (OR 2·07; 95% CI 1·08-4·00), as well as a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (OR 2·00; 1·13-3·54). There was a marked five-fold higher ARF risk for those with a family history of ARF (OR 4·97; 95% CI 2·53-9·77). ARF risk was elevated following self-reported skin infection (aOR 2·53; 1·44-4·42) and sore throat (aOR 2·33; 1·49-3·62). Interpretation: These globally relevant findings direct attention to the critical importance of household crowding and access to primary health care as strong modifiable causal factors in the development of ARF. They also support a greater focus on the role of managing skin infections in ARF prevention. Funding: This research was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC) Rheumatic Fever Research Partnership (supported by the New Zealand Ministry of Health, Te Puni Kokiri, Cure Kids, Heart Foundation, and HRC) award number 13/959.

Risk factors for group A streptococcal pharyngitis and skin infections: A case control study.

Background: Group A streptococcal (GAS) infections can trigger an immune-mediated response resulting in acute rheumatic fever (ARF). The role of social and environmental risk factors for GAS pharyngitis and skin infections are not well understood. This study aimed to identify factors associated with GAS pharyngitis and skin infections, and to determine if these are the same as those for ARF. Methods: A case-control study, including 733 children aged 5-14 years, was undertaken between March 2018 and October 2019 in Auckland, New Zealand. Healthy controls (n = 190) and symptomatic cases including GAS pharyngitis (n = 210), GAS seronegative carriers (n = 182), and GAS skin infections (n = 151) were recruited. Trained interviewers administered a comprehensive, pre-tested, face-to-face questionnaire. Findings: Multivariable analysis identified strong associations between barriers to accessing primary healthcare and having GAS pharyngitis (adjusted OR 3·3; 95% CI 1·8-6·0), GAS carriage (aOR 2·9; 95% CI 1·5-6·0) or a GAS skin infection (aOR 3·5; 95% CI 1·6-7·6). Children who had GAS skin infections were more likely than all other groups to report living in a crowded home (aOR 1·9; 95% CI 1·0-3·4), have Maori or Pacific grandparents (aOR 3·0; 95% CI 1·2-7·6), a family history of ARF (aOR 2·2; 95% CI 1·1-4·3), or having a previous diagnosis of eczema (aOR 3·9; 95% CI 2·2-6·9). Interpretation: Reducing barriers to accessing primary healthcare (including financial restrictions, the inability to book an appointment, lack of transport, and lack of childcare for other children) to treat GAS pharyngitis and skin infections could potentially reduce these infections and lead to a reduction in their sequelae, including ARF. These strategies should be co-designed and culturally appropriate for the communities being served and carefully evaluated. Funding: This work was supported by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC), award number 16/005.

Endosomal-Lysosomal and Autophagy Pathway in Alzheimer's Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The endosomal-lysosomal and autophagy (ELA) pathway may be implicated in the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD); however, findings thus far have been inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: To systematically summarize differences in endosomal-lysosomal and autophagy proteins in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of people with AD and healthy controls (HC). METHODS: Studies measuring CSF concentrations of relevant proteins in the ELA pathway in AD and healthy controls were included. Standardized mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) between AD and healthy controls in CSF concentrations of relevant proteins were meta-analyzed using random-effects models. RESULTS: Of 2,471 unique studies, 43 studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Differences in ELA protein levels in the CSF between AD and healthy controls were observed, particularly in lysosomal membrane (LAMP-1: NAD/NHC = 348/381, SMD [95% CI] = 0.599 [0.268, 0.930], I2 = 72.8%; LAMP-2: NAD/NHC = 401/510, SMD [95% CI] = 0.480 [0.134, 0.826], I2 = 78.7%) and intra-lysosomal proteins (GM2A: NAD/NHC = 390/420, SMD [95% CI] = 0.496 [0.039, 0.954], I2 = 87.7%; CTSB: NAD/NHC = 485/443, SMD [95% CI] = 0.201 [0.029, 0.374], I2 = 28.5%; CTSZ: NAD/NHC = 535/820, SMD [95% CI] = -0.160 [-0.305, -0.015], I2 = 24.0%) and in proteins involved in endocytosis (AP2B1:NAD/NHC = 171/205, SMD [95% CI] = 0.513 [0.259, 0.768], I2 = 27.4%; FLOT1: NAD/NHC = 41/45, SMD [95% CI] = -0.489 [-0.919, -0.058], I2 <0.01). LC3B, an autophagy marker, also showed a difference (NAD/NHC = 70/59, SMD [95% CI] = 0.648 [0.180, 1.116], I2 = 38.3%)), but overall there was limited evidence suggesting differences in proteins involved in endosomal function and autophagy. CONCLUSION: Dysregulation of proteins in the ELA pathway may play an important role in AD pathogenesis. Some proteins within this pathway may be potential biomarkers for AD.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis adherence test using reverse transcription isothermal amplification inhibition assay.

Current HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) or pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) therapy adherence monitoring relies on either patient self-reported adherence or monitored drug dispensing, which are not reliable. We report a proof-of-concept adherence monitoring assay which directly measures nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) concentration using a reverse transcription isothermal amplification inhibition assay. We measure the concentration of Tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) - an NRTI that functions as a deoxyadenosine triphosphate (dATP) analog and long-term adherence marker for PrEP - by measuring the inhibition of the reverse transcription of an RNA template. The completion or inhibition of reverse transcription is evaluated by recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA), an isothermal nucleic acid amplification assay commonly used for point-of-care diagnostics. We present and validate a model that predicts the amplification probability as a function of dATP and TFV-DP concentrations, nucleotide insertion sites on the RNA template, and RNA template concentration. The model can be used to rationally design and optimize the assay to operate at clinically relevant TFV-DP concentrations. We provide statistical analysis that demonstrates how the assay may be used as a qualitative or semi-quantitative tool for measuring adherence to NRTI drugs and used to support patient compliance. Due to its simple instrumentation and short runtime (<1 hour), this assay has the potential for implementation in low-complexity laboratories or point-of-care settings, which may improve access to ART and PrEP adherence monitoring.

Has increasing internet use due to smartphone uptake contributed to the decline in adolescent smoking?

INTRODUCTION: The emergence of low-cost smartphone technology has coincided with major declines in adolescent smoking and other risk behaviours. This study explores the relationship between internet use and smoking in adolescents and investigates whether rising internet use contributed to the decline in smoking between 2012 and 2018. METHODS: Data were drawn from a nationally representative New Zealand survey of students aged 14-15 (N = 11 299), conducted biennially between 2012 and 2018. We used logistic regression to explore the association between internet use and smoking and test whether increasing time on the internet was associated with declining adolescent smoking over the study period. RESULTS: The proportion of students spending 5+ hours per day online increased from 15% to 35%. Heavy internet use was not a protective factor for smoking at the individual level. In 2016/2018, some types of past week internet use were associated with decreased risk of smoking (e.g. doing schoolwork, finding out about news), some were associated with increased risk (e.g. social media use) and others appeared to have no association with smoking (e.g. gaming, online shopping). The relative risk of smoking was lower in 2018 relative to 2012 (relative risk 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.51, 0.90, after adjustment for demographic factors). Adding internet use to the model did not help to account for smoking decline. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that increasing time spent on the internet during the 2012-2018 period (during which smartphones became ubiquitous) contributed to the decline in adolescent smoking.

Preceding group A streptococcus skin and throat infections are individually associated with acute rheumatic fever: evidence from New Zealand.

INTRODUCTION: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is usually considered a consequence of group A streptococcus (GAS) pharyngitis, with GAS skin infections not considered a major trigger. The aim was to quantify the risk of ARF following a GAS-positive skin or throat swab. METHODS: This retrospective analysis used pre-existing administrative data. Throat and skin swab data (1 866 981 swabs) from the Auckland region, New Zealand and antibiotic dispensing data were used (2010-2017). Incident ARF cases were identified using hospitalisation data (2010-2018). The risk ratio (RR) of ARF following swab collection was estimated across selected features and timeframes. Antibiotic dispensing data were linked to investigate whether this altered ARF risk following GAS detection. RESULTS: ARF risk increased following GAS detection in a throat or skin swab. Maori and Pacific Peoples had the highest ARF risk 8-90 days following a GAS-positive throat or skin swab, compared with a GAS-negative swab. During this period, the RR for Maori and Pacific Peoples following a GAS-positive throat swab was 4.8 (95% CI 3.6 to 6.4) and following a GAS-positive skin swab, the RR was 5.1 (95% CI 1.8 to 15.0). Antibiotic dispensing was not associated with a reduction in ARF risk following GAS detection in a throat swab (antibiotics not dispensed (RR: 4.1, 95% CI 2.7 to 6.2), antibiotics dispensed (RR: 4.3, 95% CI 2.5 to 7.4) or in a skin swab (antibiotics not dispensed (RR: 3.5, 95% CI 0.9 to 13.9), antibiotics dispensed (RR: 2.0, 95% CI 0.3 to 12.1). CONCLUSIONS: A GAS-positive throat or skin swab is strongly associated with subsequent ARF, particularly for Maori and Pacific Peoples. This study provides the first population-level evidence that GAS skin infection can trigger ARF.

25-OHD response to vitamin D supplementation in children: effect of dose but not GC haplotype.

OBJECTIVE: GC/DBP effects on response to vitamin D supplementation have not been well-studied. Thus we assessed free and total 25-OHD after vitamin D treatment across the six common GC haplotypes. DESIGN: This double-blind, randomized study compared two vitamin D3 doses in healthy, urban-dwelling 6-month to 10-year-old children at-risk for vitamin D deficiency. Randomization was stratified by GC haplotype. METHODS: Children were randomized to receive 2800 or 7000 International Units of vitamin D3 weekly. 25-OHD and 1,25(OH)2D were sampled at baseline and after 1-6 months of supplementation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: One hundred ninety-two of 225 enrolled subjects completed the study. After one month, total 25-OHD increased with both doses and were higher with 7000 IU/week (85.5 ± 22.8 nmol/L) compared to 2800 IU/week (76.8 ± 18.0 nmol/L), despite equivalent baseline levels. No further significant increase occurred at 6 months (89.8 ± 35.5 and 74.3 ± 18.3 nmol/L, respectively). Free 25-OHD similarly changed. 25-OHD differed among GC groups at baseline. Although no significant effects of individual GC haplotypes on incremental changes were evident, a trend toward an effect of combined 'at risk' GC alleles on response was evident (P = 0.06). Total 1,25(OH)2D showed modest increases, moreso with the larger dose. In urban-dwelling children at-risk for vitamin D deficiency, 1 month of vitamin D3 2800 IU/week increased 25-OHD across all GC haplotype groups, and somewhat enhanced with 7000 IU/week with no further significant increases after 6 months of supplementation. Free 25-OHD measures offer no monitoring advantage over total 25-OHD.

Ethnically Disparate Disease Progression and Outcomes among Acute Rheumatic Fever Patients in New Zealand, 1989-2015.

We investigated outcomes for patients born after 1983 and hospitalized with initial acute rheumatic fever (ARF) in New Zealand during 1989-2012. We linked ARF progression outcome data (recurrent hospitalization for ARF, hospitalization for rheumatic heart disease [RHD], and death from circulatory causes) for 1989-2015. Retrospective analysis identified initial RHD patients <40 years of age who were hospitalized during 2010-2015 and previously hospitalized for ARF. Most (86.4%) of the 2,182 initial ARF patients did not experience disease progression by the end of 2015. Progression probability after 26.8 years of theoretical follow-up was 24.0%; probability of death, 1.0%. Progression was more rapid and ≈2 times more likely for indigenous Maori or Pacific Islander patients. Of 435 initial RHD patients, 82.2% had not been previously hospitalized for ARF. This young cohort demonstrated low mortality rates but considerable illness, especially among underserved populations. A national patient register could help monitor, prevent, and reduce ARF progression.