Climate oscillation impacts on water supply augmentation planning.

Climate oscillations ranging from years to decades drive precipitation variability in many river basins globally. As a result, many regions will require new water infrastructure investments to maintain reliable water supply. However, current adaptation approaches focus on long-term trends, preparing for average climate conditions at mid- or end-of-century. The impact of climate oscillations, which bring prolonged and variable but temporary dry periods, on water supply augmentation needs is unknown. Current approaches for theory development in nature-society systems are limited in their ability to realistically capture the impacts of climate oscillations on water supply. Here, we develop an approach to build middle-range theory on how common climate oscillations affect low-cost, reliable water supply augmentation strategies. We extract contrasting climate oscillation patterns across sub-Saharan Africa and study their impacts on a generic water supply system. Our approach integrates climate model projections, nonstationary signal processing, stochastic weather generation, and reinforcement learning-based advances in stochastic dynamic control. We find that longer climate oscillations often require greater water supply augmentation capacity but benefit more from dynamic approaches. Therefore, in settings with the adaptive capacity to revisit planning decisions frequently, longer climate oscillations do not require greater capacity. By building theory on the relationship between climate oscillations and least-cost reliable water supply augmentation, our findings can help planners target scarce resources and guide water technology and policy innovation. This approach can be used to support climate adaptation planning across large spatial scales in sectors impacted by climate variability.

Evaluation of uncertain signals' impact on deep reinforcement learning-based real-time control strategy of urban drainage systems.

Real-time control (RTC) is a recognized technology to enhance the efficiency of urban drainage systems (UDS). Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has recently provided a new solution for RTC. However, the practice of DRL-based RTC has been impeded by different sources of uncertainties. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact caused by the uncertainties on DRL-based RTC to promote its application. The impact of uncertainties in the measurement of water level signals was evaluated through large-scale simulation experiments and quantified using measures of statistical dispersion of control performance distribution and relative change of control performance compared to the baseline scenario with no uncertainty. Results show that the statistical dispersion of DRL-based RTC was reduced by 15.48%-81.93% concerning random and systematic uncertainties compared to the conventional rule-based control (RBC) strategy. The findings indicated that DRL-based RTC is robust and could be reliably applied to safety-critical real-world UDS.