Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date.

The stability of winter wheat-flowering-date is crucial for ensuring consistent and robust crop performance across diverse climatic conditions. However, the impact of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates remains uncertain. This study aims to elucidate the influence of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates, predict how projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi-locus genotype-based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheat-flowering-dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat-flowering-dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat-flowering-date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheat-flowering-date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.

Quantification of the Cumulative Shading Capacity in a Maize-Soybean Intercropping System Using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.

In intercropping systems, higher crops block direct radiation, resulting in inevitable shading on the lower crops. Cumulative shading capacity (CSC), defined as the amount of direct radiation shaded by higher crops during a growth period, affects the light interception and radiation use efficiency of crops. Previous studies investigated the light interception and distribution of intercropping. However, how to directly quantify the CSC and its inter-row heterogeneity is still unclear. Considering the canopy height differences (Hms, obtained using an unmanned aerial vehicle) and solar position, we developed a shading capacity model (SCM) to quantify the shading on soybean in maize-soybean intercropping systems. Our results indicated that the southernmost row of soybean had the highest shading proportion, with variations observed among treatments composed of strip configurations and plant densities (ranging from 52.44% to 57.44%). The maximum overall CSC in our treatments reached 123.77 MJ m-2. There was a quantitative relationship between CSC and the soybean canopy height increment (y = 3.61 × 10-2×ln(x)+6.80 × 10-1, P < 0.001). Assuming that the growth status of maize and soybean was consistent under different planting directions and latitudes, we evaluated the effects of factors (i.e., canopy height difference, latitude, and planting direction) on shading to provide insights for optimizing intercropping planting patterns. The simulation showed that increasing canopy height differences and latitude led to increased shading, and the planting direction with the least shading was about 90° to 120° at the experimental site. The newly proposed SCM offers a quantitative approach for better understanding shading in intercropping systems.

A Generic Model to Estimate Wheat LAI over Growing Season Regardless of the Soil-Type Background.

It is valuable to develop a generic model that can accurately estimate the leaf area index (LAI) of wheat from unmanned aerial vehicle-based multispectral data for diverse soil backgrounds without any ground calibration. To achieve this objective, 2 strategies were investigated to improve our existing random forest regression (RFR) model, which was trained with simulations from a radiative transfer model (PROSAIL). The 2 strategies consisted of (a) broadening the reflectance domain of soil background to generate training data and (b) finding an appropriate set of indicators (band reflectance and/or vegetation indices) as inputs of the RFR model. The RFR models were tested in diverse soils representing varying soil types in Australia. Simulation analysis indicated that adopting both strategies resulted in a generic model that can provide accurate estimation for wheat LAI and is resistant to changes in soil background. From validation on 2 years of field trials, this model achieved high prediction accuracy for LAI over the entire crop cycle (LAI up to 7 m2 m-2) (root mean square error (RMSE): 0.23 to 0.89 m2 m-2), including for sparse canopy (LAI less than 0.3 m2 m-2) grown on different soil types (RMSE: 0.02 to 0.25 m2 m-2). The model reliably captured the seasonal pattern of LAI dynamics for different treatments in terms of genotypes, plant densities, and water-nitrogen managements (correlation coefficient: 0.82 to 0.98). With appropriate adaptations, this framework can be adjusted to any type of sensors to estimate various traits for various species (including but not limited to LAI of wheat) in associated disciplines, e.g., crop breeding, precision agriculture, etc.

Responses of wheat kernel weight to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate change conditions.

Introduction: In wheat, kernel weight (KW) is a key determinant of grain yield (GY). However, it is often overlooked when improving wheat productivity under climate warming. Moreover, little is known about the complex effects of genetic and climatic factors on KW. Here, we explored the responses of wheat KW to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate warming conditions. Methods: To focus on KW, we selected a subset of 81 out of 209 wheat varieties with similar GY, biomass, and kernel number (KN) and focused on their thousand-kernel weight (TKW). We genotyped them at eight kompetitive allele-specific polymerase chain reaction markers closely associated with TKW. Subsequently, we calibrated and evaluated the process-based model known as Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Wheat) based on a unique dataset including phenotyping, genotyping, climate, soil physicochemistry, and on-farm management information. We then used the calibrated APSIM-Wheat model to estimate TKW under eight allelic combinations (81 wheat varieties), seven sowing dates, and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) designated SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, EC-Earth3-Veg, MIROC-ES2L, and UKESM1-0-LL. Results: The APSIM-Wheat model reliably simulated wheat TKW with a root mean square error (RMSE) of < 3.076 g TK-1 and R2 of > 0.575 (P < 0.001). The analysis of variance based on the simulation output showed that allelic combination, climate scenario, and sowing date extremely significantly affected TKW (P < 0.001). The impact of the interaction allelic combination × climate scenario on TKW was also significant (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, the variety parameters and their relative importance in the APSIM-Wheat model accorded with the expression of the allelic combinations. Under the projected climate scenarios, the favorable allelic combinations (TaCKX-D1b + Hap-7A-1 + Hap-T + Hap-6A-G + Hap-6B-1 + H1g + A1b for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) mitigated the negative effects of climate change on TKW. Discussion: The present study demonstrated that optimizing favorable allelic combinations can help achieve high wheat TKW. The findings of this study clarify the responses of wheat KW to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate change conditions. Additionally, the present study provides theoretical and practical reference for marker-assisted selection of high TKW in wheat breeding.

Unsupervised Plot-Scale LAI Phenotyping via UAV-Based Imaging, Modelling, and Machine Learning.

High-throughput phenotyping has become the frontier to accelerate breeding through linking genetics to crop growth estimation, which requires accurate estimation of leaf area index (LAI). This study developed a hybrid method to train the random forest regression (RFR) models with synthetic datasets generated by a radiative transfer model to estimate LAI from UAV-based multispectral images. The RFR models were evaluated on both (i) subsets from the synthetic datasets and (ii) observed data from two field experiments (i.e., Exp16, Exp19). Given the parameter ranges and soil reflectance are well calibrated in synthetic training data, RFR models can accurately predict LAI from canopy reflectance captured in field conditions, with systematic overestimation for LAI<2 due to background effect, which can be addressed by applying background correction on original reflectance map based on vegetation-background classification. Overall, RFR models achieved accurate LAI prediction from background-corrected reflectance for Exp16 (correlation coefficient (r) of 0.95, determination coefficient (R 2) of 0.90~0.91, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.36~0.40 m2 m-2, relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) of 25~28%) and less accurate for Exp19 (r =0.80~0.83, R 2 = 0.63~0.69, RMSE of 0.84~0.86 m2 m-2, RRMSE of 30~31%). Additionally, RFR models correctly captured spatiotemporal variation of observed LAI as well as identified variations for different growing stages and treatments in terms of genotypes and management practices (i.e., planting density, irrigation, and fertilization) for two experiments. The developed hybrid method allows rapid, accurate, nondestructive phenotyping of the dynamics of LAI during vegetative growth to facilitate assessments of growth rate including in breeding program assessments.

Integrating a crop growth model and radiative transfer model to improve estimation of crop traits based on deep learning.

A major challenge for the estimation of crop traits (biophysical variables) from canopy reflectance is the creation of a high-quality training dataset. To address this problem, this research investigated a conceptual framework by integrating a crop growth model with a radiative transfer model to introduce biological constraints in a synthetic training dataset. In addition to the comparison of two datasets without and with biological constraints, we also investigated the effects of observation geometry, retrieval method, and wavelength range on estimation accuracy of four crop traits (leaf area index, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf dry matter, and leaf water content) of wheat. The theoretical analysis demonstrated potential advantages of adding biological constraints in synthetic training datasets as well as the capability of deep learning. Additionally, the predictive models were validated on real unmanned aerial vehicle-based multispectral images collected from wheat plots contrasting in canopy structure. The predictive model trained over a synthetic dataset with biological constraints enabled the prediction of leaf water content from using wavelengths in the visible to near infrared range based on the correlations between crop traits. Our findings presented the potential of the proposed conceptual framework in simultaneously retrieving multiple crop traits from canopy reflectance for applications in precision agriculture and plant breeding.

Applications of a Hyperspectral Imaging System Used to Estimate Wheat Grain Protein: A Review.

Recent research advances in wheat have focused not only on increasing grain yields, but also on establishing higher grain quality. Wheat quality is primarily determined by the grain protein content (GPC) and composition, and both of these are affected by nitrogen (N) levels in the plant as it develops during the growing season. Hyperspectral remote sensing is gradually becoming recognized as an economical alternative to traditional destructive field sampling methods and laboratory testing as a means of determining the N status within wheat. Currently, hyperspectral vegetation indices (VIs) and linear nonparametric regression are the primary tools for monitoring the N status of wheat. Machine learning algorithms have been increasingly applied to model the nonlinear relationship between spectral data and wheat N status. This study is a comprehensive review of available N-related hyperspectral VIs and aims to inform the selection of VIs under field conditions. The combination of feature mining and machine learning algorithms is discussed as an application of hyperspectral imaging systems. We discuss the major challenges and future directions for evaluating and assessing wheat N status. Finally, we suggest that the underlying mechanism of protein formation in wheat grains as determined by using hyperspectral imaging systems needs to be further investigated. This overview provides theoretical and technical support to promote applications of hyperspectral imaging systems in wheat N status assessments; in addition, it can be applied to help monitor and evaluate food and nutrition security.

Phenological optimization of late reproductive phase for raising wheat yield potential in irrigated mega-environments.

Increasing grain number through fine-tuning duration of the late reproductive phase (LRP; terminal spikelet to anthesis) without altering anthesis time has been proposed as a genetic strategy to increase yield potential (YP) of wheat. Here we conducted a modelling analysis to evaluate the potential of fine-tuning LRP in raising YP in irrigated mega-environments. Using the known optimal anthesis and sowing date of current elite benchmark genotypes, we applied a gene-based phenology model for long-term simulations of phenological stages and yield-related variables of all potential germplasm with the same duration to anthesis as the benchmark genotypes. These diverse genotypes had the same duration to anthesis but varying LRP duration. Lengthening LRP increased YP and harvest index by increasing grain number to some extent and an excessively long LRP reduced YP due to reduced time for canopy construction for high biomass production of pre-anthesis phase. The current elite genotypes could have their LRP extended for higher YP in most sites. Genotypes with a ratio of the duration of LRP to pre-anthesis phase of about 0.42 ensured high yields (≥95% of YP) with their optimal sowing and anthesis dates. Optimization of intermediate growth stages could be further evaluated in breeding programmes to improve YP.

Isolation and sequencing of a single copy of an introgressed chromosome from a complex genome for gene and SNP identification.

KEY MESSAGE: This manuscript describes the identification, isolation and sequencing of a single chromosome containing high value resistance genes from a complex polyploid where sequencing the whole genome is too costly. The large complex genomes of many crops constrain the use of new technologies for genome-assisted selection and genetic improvement. One method to simplify a genome is to break it into individual chromosomes by flow cytometry; however, in many crop species most chromosomes cannot be isolated individually. Flow sorting of a single copy of a chromosome has been developed in wheat, and here we demonstrate its use to identify markers of interest in an Erianthus/Sacchurum hybrid. Erianthus/Saccharum hybrids are of interest because Erianthus is known to be highly resistant to soil borne diseases which cause extensive sugarcane yield losses in Australia. Sugarcane (Saccharum) cultivars are autopolyploids with a highly complex genome and over 100 chromosomes. Flow cytometry for sugarcane, as in most crops, does not resolve individual chromosomes to a karyotype peak for sorting. To isolate a single chromosome, we used genomic in situ hybridization (GISH) to identify the flow karyotype region containing the Erianthus chromosomes, flow sorted single chromosomes from this region, PCR screened for the Erianthus chromosomes and sequenced them. One Erianthus chromosome amplified and sequenced well, and from this data we could identify 57 resistant type genes and SNPs in nearly half of these genes. We developed KASP SNP assays and demonstrated that the identified SNP markers segregated as expected in a small introgression population. The pipeline we developed here to flow sort and sequence single chromosomes could be used in any crop with a large complex genome to rapidly discover and develop markers to important loci.

Global Wheat Head Detection 2021: An Improved Dataset for Benchmarking Wheat Head Detection Methods.

The Global Wheat Head Detection (GWHD) dataset was created in 2020 and has assembled 193,634 labelled wheat heads from 4700 RGB images acquired from various acquisition platforms and 7 countries/institutions. With an associated competition hosted in Kaggle, GWHD_2020 has successfully attracted attention from both the computer vision and agricultural science communities. From this first experience, a few avenues for improvements have been identified regarding data size, head diversity, and label reliability. To address these issues, the 2020 dataset has been reexamined, relabeled, and complemented by adding 1722 images from 5 additional countries, allowing for 81,553 additional wheat heads. We now release in 2021 a new version of the Global Wheat Head Detection dataset, which is bigger, more diverse, and less noisy than the GWHD_2020 version.

Understanding the Effects of Growing Seasons, Genotypes, and Their Interactions on the Anthesis Date of Wheat Sown in North China.

Quantitative studies on the effects of growing season, genotype (including photoperiod genes and vernalization genes), and their interaction (GGI) on the anthesis date of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are helpful to provide a scientific reference for selecting or developing adaptive varieties in target environments. In this study, we collected 100 winter wheat varieties with ecological adaptability in North China and identified the anthesis date under field conditions for three consecutive years from 2016 to 2019 with mapped photoperiod and vernalization alleles. Our results showed that the number of the photoperiod-insensitive Ppd-D1a allele increased with variety replacement, while the haplotype Ppd-A1b + Ppd-D1b + vrn-D1 (A4B2) decreased from the 1940s to 2000s. The anthesis date of A4B2 was significantly delayed due to the photoperiod-insensitive alleles Ppd-A1b and Ppd-D1b. The additive main effect and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) model and GGI biplot analysis were used for data analysis. A large portion of the total variation was explained by growing seasons (66.3%), while genotypes and GGIs explained 21.9% and 10.1% of the anthesis dates, respectively. The varieties from the 1940s and before had a great influence on the anthesis date, suggesting these germplasms tend to avoid premature anthesis and could facilitate the development of phenological resilient varieties.

Detecting Sorghum Plant and Head Features from Multispectral UAV Imagery.

In plant breeding, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carrying multispectral cameras have demonstrated increasing utility for high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) to aid the interpretation of genotype and environment effects on morphological, biochemical, and physiological traits. A key constraint remains the reduced resolution and quality extracted from "stitched" mosaics generated from UAV missions across large areas. This can be addressed by generating high-quality reflectance data from a single nadir image per plot. In this study, a pipeline was developed to derive reflectance data from raw multispectral UAV images that preserve the original high spatial and spectral resolutions and to use these for phenotyping applications. Sequential steps involved (i) imagery calibration, (ii) spectral band alignment, (iii) backward calculation, (iv) plot segmentation, and (v) application. Each step was designed and optimised to estimate the number of plants and count sorghum heads within each breeding plot. Using a derived nadir image of each plot, the coefficients of determination were 0.90 and 0.86 for estimates of the number of sorghum plants and heads, respectively. Furthermore, the reflectance information acquired from the different spectral bands showed appreciably high discriminative ability for sorghum head colours (i.e., red and white). Deployment of this pipeline allowed accurate segmentation of crop organs at the canopy level across many diverse field plots with minimal training needed from machine learning approaches.

Using a gene-based phenology model to identify optimal flowering periods of spring wheat in irrigated mega-environments.

To maximize the grain yield of spring wheat, flowering needs to coincide with the optimal flowering period (OFP) by minimizing frost and heat stress on reproductive development. This global study conducted a comprehensive modelling analysis of genotype, environment, and management to identify the OFPs for sites in irrigated mega-environments of spring wheat where the crop matures during a period of increasing temperatures. We used a gene-based phenology model to conduct long-term simulation analysis with parameterized genotypes to identify OFPs and optimal sowing dates for sites in irrigated mega-environments, considering the impacts of frost and heat stress on yield. The validation results showed that the gene-based model accurately predicted wheat heading dates across global wheat environments. The long-term simulations indicated that frost and heat stress significantly advanced or delayed OFPs and shrank the durations of OFPs in irrigated mega-environments when compared with OFPs where the model excluded frost and heat stress impacts. The simulation results (incorporating frost and heat penalties on yield) also showed that earlier flowering generally resulted in higher yields, and early sowing dates and/or early flowering genotypes were suggested to achieve early flowering. These results provided an interpretation of the regulation of wheat flowering to the OFP by the selection of sowing date and cultivar to achieve higher yields in irrigated mega-environments.

Coupling of machine learning methods to improve estimation of ground coverage from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery for high-throughput phenotyping of crops.

Ground coverage (GC) allows monitoring of crop growth and development and is normally estimated as the ratio of vegetation to the total pixels from nadir images captured by visible-spectrum (RGB) cameras. The accuracy of estimated GC can be significantly impacted by the effect of 'mixed pixels', which is related to the spatial resolution of the imagery as determined by flight altitude, camera resolution and crop characteristics (fine vs coarse textures). In this study, a two-step machine learning method was developed to improve the accuracy of GC of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) estimated from coarse-resolution RGB images captured by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at higher altitudes. The classification tree-based per-pixel segmentation (PPS) method was first used to segment fine-resolution reference images into vegetation and background pixels. The reference and their segmented images were degraded to the target coarse spatial resolution. These degraded images were then used to generate a training dataset for a regression tree-based model to establish the sub-pixel classification (SPC) method. The newly proposed method (i.e. PPS-SPC) was evaluated with six synthetic and four real UAV image sets (SISs and RISs, respectively) with different spatial resolutions. Overall, the results demonstrated that the PPS-SPC method obtained higher accuracy of GC in both SISs and RISs comparing to PPS method, with root mean squared errors (RMSE) of less than 6% and relative RMSE (RRMSE) of less than 11% for SISs, and RMSE of less than 5% and RRMSE of less than 35% for RISs. The proposed PPS-SPC method can be potentially applied in plant breeding and precision agriculture to balance accuracy requirement and UAV flight height in the limited battery life and operation time.

Improving Grain Yield via Promotion of Kernel Weight in High Yielding Winter Wheat Genotypes.

Improving plant net photosynthetic rates and accelerating water-soluble carbohydrate accumulation play an important role in increasing the carbon sources for yield formation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Understanding and quantify the contribution of these traits to grain yield can provide a pathway towards increasing the yield potential of wheat. The objective of this study was to identify kernel weight gap for improving grain yield in 15 winter wheat genotypes grown in Shandong Province, China. A cluster analysis was conducted to classify the 15 wheat genotypes into high yielding (HY) and low yielding (LY) groups based on their performance in grain yield, harvest index, photosynthetic rate, kernels per square meter, and spikes per square meter from two years of field testing. While the grain yield was significantly higher in the HY group, its thousand kernel weight (TKW) was 8.8% lower than that of the LY group (p < 0.05). A structural equation model revealed that 83% of the total variation in grain yield for the HY group could be mainly explained by TKW, the flag leaf photosynthesis rate at the grain filling stage (Pn75), and flag leaf water-soluble carbohydrate content (WSC) at grain filling stage. Their effect values on yield were 0.579, 0.759, and 0.444, respectively. Our results suggest that increase of flag leaf photosynthesis and WSC could improve the TKW, and thus benefit for developing high yielding wheat cultivars.

Global Wheat Head Detection (GWHD) Dataset: A Large and Diverse Dataset of High-Resolution RGB-Labelled Images to Develop and Benchmark Wheat Head Detection Methods.

The detection of wheat heads in plant images is an important task for estimating pertinent wheat traits including head population density and head characteristics such as health, size, maturity stage, and the presence of awns. Several studies have developed methods for wheat head detection from high-resolution RGB imagery based on machine learning algorithms. However, these methods have generally been calibrated and validated on limited datasets. High variability in observational conditions, genotypic differences, development stages, and head orientation makes wheat head detection a challenge for computer vision. Further, possible blurring due to motion or wind and overlap between heads for dense populations make this task even more complex. Through a joint international collaborative effort, we have built a large, diverse, and well-labelled dataset of wheat images, called the Global Wheat Head Detection (GWHD) dataset. It contains 4700 high-resolution RGB images and 190000 labelled wheat heads collected from several countries around the world at different growth stages with a wide range of genotypes. Guidelines for image acquisition, associating minimum metadata to respect FAIR principles, and consistent head labelling methods are proposed when developing new head detection datasets. The GWHD dataset is publicly available at http://www.global-wheat.com/and aimed at developing and benchmarking methods for wheat head detection.

A reduced-tillering trait shows small but important yield gains in dryland wheat production.

Reducing the number of tillers per plant using a tiller inhibition (tin) gene has been considered as an important trait for wheat production in dryland environments. We used a spatial analysis approach with a daily time-step coupled radiation and transpiration efficiency model to simulate the impact of the reduced-tillering trait on wheat yield under different climate change scenarios across Australia's arable land. Our results show a small but consistent yield advantage of the reduced-tillering trait in the most water-limited environments both under current and likely future conditions. Our climate scenarios show that whilst elevated [CO2 ] (e[CO2 ]) alone might limit the area where the reduced-tillering trait is advantageous, the most likely climate scenario of e[CO2 ] combined with increased temperature and reduced rainfall consistently increased the area where restricted tillering has an advantage. Whilst long-term average yield advantages were small (ranged from 31 to 51 kg ha-1  year-1 ), across large dryland areas the value is large (potential cost-benefits ranged from Australian dollar 23 to 60 MIL/year). It seems therefore worthwhile to further explore this reduced-tillering trait in relation to a range of different environments and climates, because its benefits are likely to grow in future dry environments where wheat is grown around the world.

From QTLs to Adaptation Landscapes: Using Genotype-To-Phenotype Models to Characterize G×E Over Time.

Genotype by environment interaction (G×E) for the target trait, e.g. yield, is an emerging property of agricultural systems and results from the interplay between a hierarchy of secondary traits involving the capture and allocation of environmental resources during the growing season. This hierarchy of secondary traits ranges from basic traits that correspond to response mechanisms/sensitivities, to intermediate traits that integrate a larger number of processes over time and therefore show a larger amount of G×E. Traits underlying yield differ in their contribution to adaptation across environmental conditions and have different levels of G×E. Here, we provide a framework to study the performance of genotype to phenotype (G2P) modeling approaches. We generate and analyze response surfaces, or adaptation landscapes, for yield and yield related traits, emphasizing the organization of the traits in a hierarchy and their development and interactions over time. We use the crop growth model APSIM-wheat with genotype-dependent parameters as a tool to simulate non-linear trait responses over time with complex trait dependencies and apply it to wheat crops in Australia. For biological realism, APSIM parameters were given a genetic basis of 300 QTLs sampled from a gamma distribution whose shape and rate parameters were estimated from real wheat data. In the simulations, the hierarchical organization of the traits and their interactions over time cause G×E for yield even when underlying traits do not show G×E. Insight into how G×E arises during growth and development helps to improve the accuracy of phenotype predictions within and across environments and to optimize trial networks. We produced a tangible simulated adaptation landscape for yield that we first investigated for its biological credibility by statistical models for G×E that incorporate genotypic and environmental covariables. Subsequently, the simulated trait data were used to evaluate statistical genotype-to-phenotype models for multiple traits and environments and to characterize relationships between traits over time and across environments, as a way to identify traits that could be useful to select for specific adaptation. Designed appropriately, these types of simulated landscapes might also serve as a basis to train other, more deep learning methodologies in order to transfer such network models to real-world situations.

Combining Crop Growth Modeling and Statistical Genetic Modeling to Evaluate Phenotyping Strategies.

Genomic prediction of complex traits, say yield, benefits from including information on correlated component traits. Statistical criteria to decide which yield components to consider in the prediction model include the heritability of the component traits and their genetic correlation with yield. Not all component traits are easy to measure. Therefore, it may be attractive to include proxies to yield components, where these proxies are measured in (high-throughput) phenotyping platforms during the growing season. Using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-wheat cropping systems model, we simulated phenotypes for a wheat diversity panel segregating for a set of physiological parameters regulating phenology, biomass partitioning, and the ability to capture environmental resources. The distribution of the additive quantitative trait locus effects regulating the APSIM physiological parameters approximated the same distribution of quantitative trait locus effects on real phenotypic data for yield and heading date. We use the crop growth model APSIM-wheat to simulate phenotypes in three Australian environments with contrasting water deficit patterns. The APSIM output contained the dynamics of biomass and canopy cover, plus yield at the end of the growing season. Each water deficit pattern triggered different adaptive mechanisms and the impact of component traits differed between drought scenarios. We evaluated multiple phenotyping schedules by adding plot and measurement error to the dynamics of biomass and canopy cover. We used these trait dynamics to fit parametric models and P-splines to extract parameters with a larger heritability than the phenotypes at individual time points. We used those parameters in multi-trait prediction models for final yield. The combined use of crop growth models and multi-trait genomic prediction models provides a procedure to assess the efficiency of phenotyping strategies and compare methods to model trait dynamics. It also allows us to quantify the impact of yield components on yield prediction accuracy even in different environment types. In scenarios with mild or no water stress, yield prediction accuracy benefitted from including biomass and green canopy cover parameters. The advantage of the multi-trait model was smaller for the early-drought scenario, due to the reduced correlation between the secondary and the target trait. Therefore, multi-trait genomic prediction models for yield require scenario-specific correlated traits.

Accuracy assessment of plant height using an unmanned aerial vehicle for quantitative genomic analysis in bread wheat.

BACKGROUND: Plant height is an important selection target since it is associated with yield potential, stability and particularly with lodging resistance in various environments. Rapid and cost-effective estimation of plant height from airborne devices using a digital surface model can be integrated with academic research and practical wheat breeding programs. A bi-parental wheat population consisting of 198 doubled haploid lines was used for time-series assessments of progress in reaching final plant height and its accuracy was assessed by quantitative genomic analysis. UAV-based data were collected at the booting and mid-grain fill stages from two experimental sites and compared with conventional measurements to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying plant height. RESULTS: A significantly high correlation of R 2 = 0.96 with a 5.75 cm root mean square error was obtained between UAV-based plant height estimates and ground truth observations at mid-grain fill across both sites. Correlations for UAV and ground-based plant height data were also very high (R 2 = 0.84-0.85, and 0.80-0.83) between plant height at the booting and mid-grain fill stages, respectively. Broad sense heritabilities were 0.92 at booting and 0.90-0.91 at mid-grain fill across sites for both data sets. Two major QTL corresponding to Rht-B1 on chromosome 4B and Rht-D1 on chromosome 4D explained 61.3% and 64.5% of the total phenotypic variations for UAV and ground truth data, respectively. Two new and stable QTL on chromosome 6D seemingly associated with accelerated plant growth was identified at the booting stage using UAV-based data. Genomic prediction accuracy for UAV and ground-based data sets was significantly high, ranging from r = 0.47-0.55 using genome-wide and QTL markers for plant height. However, prediction accuracy declined to r = 0.20-0.31 after excluding markers linked to plant height QTL. CONCLUSION: This study provides a fast way to obtain time-series estimates of plant height in understanding growth dynamics in bread wheat. UAV-enabled phenotyping is an effective, high-throughput and cost-effective approach to understand the genetic basis of plant height in genetic studies and practical breeding.