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Influenza imposes a significant disease burden on society and individuals annually, and influenza vaccination is considered a significant public health measure to prevent influenza and reduce influenza-related severe disease and death. The low influenza vaccination rate in China is partly due to certain factors affecting the willingness and behavior of individuals to receive them. Scientific research and targeted interventions on these factors can effectively improve the vaccination situation. Commonly used individual-level theoretical models for influenza vaccination behavior include the health belief model, protection motivation theory, and theory of planned behavior. This study reviews theoretical models commonly employed in researching influenza vaccination willingness and behavior. An overview of these practical applications and challenges models is presented to provide references for relevant research and intervention programs in China.
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Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Modelos Teóricos , Vacunación , Humanos , Vacunas contra la Influenza/administración & dosificación , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , China , Vacunación/psicología , Conductas Relacionadas con la Salud , MotivaciónRESUMEN
This article uses the "behavioural and social drivers of vaccination" model released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2022 to analyze influenza vaccine policy documents issued by the state and governments. This indicates that the current influenza vaccination policy in China has paid some attention to "publicity and mobilization", but it still pays insufficient attention to "vaccination convenience". It is recommended to continue to strengthen publicity and mobilization, explore ways to improve the convenience of vaccination, formulate corresponding plans to improve the convenience of vaccination, scientifically set vaccination rate targets, and encourage areas with conditions to carry out free vaccination projects for key populations.
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Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza virus. Pregnancy is associated with physiologic and immunological changes that may increase the risk for influenza virus infection and influenza-related complications. Influenza vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza virus infection. WHO and many countries have classified pregnant women as a priority population for influenza vaccination, however, there are still many challenges for promoting influenza vaccination in pregnant women in China, influenza vaccination coverage in pregnant women remains low and some influenza vaccine package inserts list pregnancy as an absolute contraindication. In this paper, we summarize the research progress in the effects of influenza infection and influenza vaccination during pregnancy both at home and abroad, then discuss the strategies to promote influenza vaccination in pregnancy for the purpose of providing reference for the related research and policy development in China.
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Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Orthomyxoviridae , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Mujeres Embarazadas , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/prevención & control , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/epidemiología , VacunaciónRESUMEN
Objective: To understand the performance of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid detection in screening of contacts of COVID-19 cases in same flights and provide evidence for the effective screening of persons at high risk for the infection in domestic flights. Methods: The information of passengers who took same domestic flights with COVID-19 cases in China from April 1, 2020 to April 30, 2022 were retrospectively collected,and χ2 test was used to analyze positive nucleic acid detection rates in the passengers in different times before the onsets of the index cases, in different seat rows and in epidemic periods of different 2019-nCoV variants. Results: During the study period, a total of 433 index cases were identified among 23 548 passengers in 370 flights. Subsequently, 72 positive cases of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid were detected in the passengers, in whom 57 were accompanying persons of the index cases. Further analysis of the another 15 passengers who tested positive for the nucleic acid showed that 86.67% of them had onsets or positive detections within 3 days after the diagnosis of the index cases, and the boarding times were all within 4 days before the onsets of the index cases. The positive detection rate in the passengers who seated in first three rows before and after the index cases was 0.15% (95%CI: 0.08%-0.27%), significantly higher than in the passengers in other rows (0.04%, 95%CI: 0.02%-0.10%, P=0.007),and there was no significant difference in the positive detection rate among the passengers in each of the 3 rows before and after the index cases (P=0.577). No significant differences were found in the positive detection rate in the passengers, except the accompanying persons, among the epidemics caused by different 2019-nCoV variants (P=0.565). During the Omicron epidemic period, all the positive detections in the passengers, except the accompanying persons, were within 3 days before the onset of the index cases. Conclusions: The screening test of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid can be conducted in the passengers took the same flights within 4 days before the onsets of the index cases on board. Passengers who seated within 3 rows from the index cases can considered as the close contacts at high risk for 2019-nCoV, for whom screening should be conducted first and special managements are needed. The passengers in other rows can be classified as general risk persons for screening and management.
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COVID-19 , Ácidos Nucleicos , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , ChinaRESUMEN
Objective: To explore the feasibility of moving epidemic method (MEM) in the assessment of seasonal influenza (influenza) activity intensity from the perspective of urban agglomeration, assess influenza activity intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2019 to 2021 and evaluate the reliability of surveillance data and the effectiveness of the MEM model application. Methods: The weekly reported incidence rate (IR) of influenza and the percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%) from 2011-2021 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were collected to establish MEM models respectively. The model fitting effect and the reliability of the two data were evaluated for the purpose of establishing an optimal model to assess the influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2019-2021. A cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the performance of the models by calculating the Youden's index, sensitivity and specificity. Results: The MEM model fitted with weekly ILI% had a higher Youden's index compared with the model fitted with weekly IR at both Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region level and provincial level. The MEM model based on ILI% showed that the epidemic threshold in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2019-2020 was 4.42%, the post-epidemic threshold was 4.66%, with medium, high and very high intensity thresholds as 5.38%, 7.22% and 7.84%, respectively. The influenza season during 2019-2020 had 10 weeks (week 50 of 2019 to week 7 of 2020). The influenza season started in week 50 of 2019, and the intensity fluctuated above and below medium epidemic level for six consecutive weeks. The high intensity was observed in week 4 of 2020, the threshold of very high intensity was excessed in week 5, and the intensity gradually declined and became lower than the threshold at the end of the influenza season in week 8. The epidemic threshold was 4.29% and the post-epidemic threshold was 4.35% during 2020-2021. Influenza activity level never excessed the epidemic threshold throughout the year, and no epidemic period emerged. Conclusions: The MEM model could be applied in the assessment of influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the use of ILI% to assess influenza activity intensity in this region was more reliable than IR data. Influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was higher during 2019-2020 but significantly lower in 2020-2021.
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Epidemias , Gripe Humana , Humanos , Beijing/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Estaciones del Año , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , China/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Objective: To investigate the policies and coverage of influenza vaccine during the influenza epidemic seasons of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 in China. Methods: The national influenza vaccination policy and vaccination rate were investigated in counties and districts and described in the two epidemic seasons. Results: In the epidemic seasons of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, the vaccination coverage of influenza in China was 3.16% and 2.47%, respectively. The free vaccination policy had the highest vaccination coverage (51.75% and 38.32%), followed by the medical insurance reimbursement policy (9.74% and 7.36%). During the epidemic season of 2021-2022, the number of counties and districts implementing the free vaccination policy in China decreased 61 compared with the previous year, but the number of people covered increased by 51.29%. However, the vaccination coverage of the vast population decreased significantly, with the medical staff (75.69% and 40.15% for two epidemic seasons), preschool children (58.86% and 26.15%), and the elderly (45.71% and 32.94%). During the epidemic season of 2021-2022, the number of counties and districts implementing the medical insurance reimbursement policy increased by 6 compared with the previous year, and the number of people covered increased by 11.12%, but the vaccination coverage decreased. Conclusion: The influenza vaccination rate in China is low, and the implementation of cost preferential policy can greatly improve the influenza vaccination rate.
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Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Preescolar , Humanos , Anciano , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Estaciones del Año , Vacunación , China/epidemiología , PolíticasRESUMEN
Objective: To investigate the current situation of influenza vaccination, vaccination willingness, recommended behavior and influencing factors of health care workers (HCWs) under the policy of free vaccination. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 3 167 medical staff from 8 hospitals in Nanshan district of Shenzhen city based on a web-based questionnaire platform. The logistic regression was used to analyze the data. Results: The influenza vaccination rate in HCWs was 23.97%, and the recommendation rate was 25.69% from 2019 to 2020. Staff with high professional titles, high academic qualifications, and positive awareness about influenza vaccine had a higher vaccination rate. The main reasons for not recommending influenza vaccine were the fear of patients' misunderstanding of commercial benefits, fear of possible disputes caused by recommended vaccination, lack of national or institutional requirements for recommended influenza vaccine, and fear of adverse reactions of influenza vaccines. Conclusion: Under the free policy, the influenza vaccination rate and recommendation rate of HCWs in Nanshan district of Shenzhen city are relatively low. Strengthening health education on influenza and related knowledge, publicizing the policy of free influenza vaccination, providing convenient vaccination services and promoting the construction of relevant policies and regulations are the key to improve the influenza vaccination rate and recommendation rate among HCWs.
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Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Humanos , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Cobertura de Vacunación , Estudios Transversales , Actitud del Personal de Salud , Vacunación , Personal de Salud , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , PolíticasRESUMEN
In the context of the global pandemic of COVID-19, the epidemic intensity, epidemic characteristics and infection risk of influenza have presented new features. COVID-19 and influenza have simultaneously emerged in many regions of the world. COVID-19 and influenza are similar in terms of transmission mode, clinical symptoms and other aspects. There are also similarities in the mechanism of influenza virus and novel coronavirus on cells. At the same time, it is feasible and significant to do a good job in the prevention and control of COVID-19 and influenza. This paper discusses the relevant strategies and measures for the joint prevention and control of influenza and novel coronavirus from the aspects of influenza vaccination to prevent co-infection, simultaneous vaccination of influenza vaccine and novel coronavirus vaccine, etc., and puts forward corresponding thoughts and suggestions, in order to provide scientific support for the formulation of strategies on seasonal influenza vaccine and novel coronavirus vaccination.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Humanos , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevención & control , Estaciones del Año , Vacunación , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
This article uses the analysis framework of the macro model of the health system to analyze the influenza vaccine policy documents issued by the state and governments at all levels from three perspectives: structure, process and results, and provides a scientific basis for improving the application strategy of influenza vaccine. It is suggested that on the basis of continuing to strengthen publicity, mobilization and organizational guarantee, measures to promote the application of influenza vaccine in China by exploring multi-channel financing mechanisms, combining the experience of new crown vaccination to improve the convenience of influenza vaccination, and scientifically setting vaccination rate targets, improve preparedness for an influenza pandemic.
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Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , China , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , Políticas , VacunaciónRESUMEN
Objective: To analyze the situation of influenza vaccination among primary healthcare workers, find out the problems, and explore the strategies and measures to promote influenza vaccination among grass-roots medical staff. Methods: From April to May 2021, key insider interviews and literature research were carried out based on the perspectives of influenza vaccine suppliers (influenza vaccine manufacturers), consumers (primary medical institutions and primary healthcare workers), and managers (governments at all levels, health administrative departments and disease prevention and control departments). The SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis technique was used to comprehensively evaluate the current situation of influenza vaccination among grass-roots healthcare workers, and a SWOT analysis matrix was established. Results: Influenza vaccination of grass-roots healthcare workers have advantages and opportunities, including primary medical and health institutions' vital influenza vaccination accessibility, influenza vaccine safety is higher, COVID-19 outbreak improves the public awareness of respiratory infectious diseases and vaccine production enthusiasm, coronavirus vaccination has strengthened the capacity of the vaccine distribution system. There are also disadvantages and threats such as the high price of influenza vaccine, insufficient supply, low awareness of influenza vaccine vaccination among grass-roots healthcare workers, lack of demand assessment mechanism on influenza vaccine, poor vaccine deployment, structural imbalance in vaccine supply in different areas, and severe vaccine waste. SWOT analysis matrix of the influenza vaccination status of grass-roots healthcare workers was established, forming dominant opportunity (SO) strategy, dominant threat (ST) strategy, inferior opportunity (WO) strategy, and inferior threat (WT) strategy. Conclusion: Measures should be taken by the supplier, the demand-side, and the management side to improve the influenza vaccine coverage rate of primary healthcare workers, but the emphasis should be on the coordination and management of the management side.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Vacunas contra la Influenza/uso terapéutico , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Atención Primaria de Salud , VacunaciónRESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic is yet another reminder that the threat of infectious disease has never really gone away. As the cornerstone of preventing and controlling infectious diseases, effective surveillance and early warning are of great significance in understanding the outbreak and epidemic of specific infectious diseases and putting forward effective prevention and control measures. Therefore, we must continue strengthening the construction of infectious disease surveillance and early warning system. We reviewed the surveillance and early warning practices of infectious diseases in major countries and regions, then discussed the development direction in the field of surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases to provide the reference for strengthening the construction and capacity of infectious disease surveillance and early warning system in China.
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COVID-19 , Enfermedades Transmisibles , China/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & controlRESUMEN
Objective: To analysis effectiveness of the "14 plus 7 day quarantine" and "nucleic acid plus total antibody testing" strategy (combined screening strategy) for screenin the imported patients with COVID-19 in Xiamen. Methods: The study populations were overseas travelers arriving in Xiamen from March 17 to December 31, 2020, and overseas travelers who had quarantine outside Xiamen for less than 21 days from July 18 to December 31, 2020. Data were collected and analyzed on the timing of detection, pathways, and test results of the imported patients with COVID-19 after implementing combined screening strategy. Results: A total of 304 imported patients with COVID-19 were found from 174 628 overseas travelers and 943 overseas travelers from other cities. A total of 163 cases (53.6%) were diagnosed by multitime, multisite intensive nucleic acid testing after positive finding in total antibody testing. Among them, 27 (8.9%) were first positive for nucleic acid in 14 plus 7 day quarantine and 136 were first positive for nucleic acid in 14-day quarantine. Only 8 of these individuals were tested positive for nucleic acid after positive total antibody testing. The other 128 individuals were tested positive for nucleic acid after being negative for average 2.3 times (maximum of 6 times). Aditional 155 cases might be detected by using the combined "14 plus 7 day quarantine" and " nucleic acid plus total antibody testing" strategy compared with "14-day quarantine and nucleic acid testing" strategy, accounting for 51.0% of the total inbound infections. So the combined screening strategy doubled the detection rate for imported patients with COVID-19. No second-generation case caused by overseas travelers had been reported in Xiamen as of February 26, 2021. Conclusions: Xiamen's combined screening strategy can effectively screen the imported patients with COVID-19 who were first positive for nucleic acid after 14 day quarantine. Compared with "14 day quarantine and nucleic acid testing", the combined screening strategy improved detection rate and further reduced the risk of the secondary transmission caused by the imported patients with COVID-19.
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COVID-19 , Ácidos Nucleicos , Humanos , Tamizaje Masivo , Cuarentena , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the expression of MMP-9 (matrix metalloproteinases 9) and P53 (tumor suppressor proteins, tumor protein P53) in serum of patients with lung cancer. The relation between the two factors and their clinical pathological features were also explored. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 150 patients were selected as the experimental group. They were diagnosed with lung cancer in Shandong Province Chest Hospital from January 2014 to January 2017. Meanwhile, 90 healthy subjects were selected as the control group. The expression levels of MMP-9 and P53 in serum were detected by fluorescence quantitative Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). The diagnostic value of MMP-9 and P53 in patients with lung cancer was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Pearson test was used to analyze the correlation between MMP-9 and P53 in the experimental group. The patients were divided into high expression and low expression groups according to the median of MMP-9 and P53 expressions. RESULTS: The expressions of MMP-9 and P53 in patients with lung cancer were higher than the normal level (p<0.05). MMP-9 and P53 in serum of the experimental group were closely related to patients' TNM-stage, degree of differentiation, lymph node metastases, smoking history and pattern of organization (p<0.05). The expressions of MMP-9 and P53 were positively correlated (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The expressions of MMP-9 and P53 played important roles in lung cancer and were closely related to clinicopathology and three-year survival rate. They could provide help for the diagnosis and treatment of clinical lung cancer.
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Neoplasias Pulmonares/genética , Metaloproteinasa 9 de la Matriz/genética , Proteína p53 Supresora de Tumor/genética , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/metabolismo , Masculino , Metaloproteinasa 9 de la Matriz/metabolismo , Persona de Mediana Edad , Proteína p53 Supresora de Tumor/metabolismoRESUMEN
The studies on infectiousness of person infected with SARS-CoV-2 at different stages of illness are an important basis for making effective prevention and control measures such as investigating the infectious source, determining the scope of close contacts and the timing of case isolation. This review discusses the infectiousness of cases infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the incubation period, symptomatic period and convalescent period by reviewing national and international literatures, technical and professional guidelines. Existing researches suggest that the infectious viruses could be isolated at the end of the incubation period as well as since illness onset, and viral load in upper respiratory tract swabs reached the peak on day 4-6 after illness onset and thereafter began to decline, implying the infectiousness was relatively strong at the end of incubation period and within one week after illness onset. Although there were a few cases who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after recovery, no evidence was found to indicate these cases can cause the transmission.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Carga ViralRESUMEN
Objective: To analyze the seasonality, age distribution of influenza B cases and matching degree of influenza B vaccine in China from 2011 to 2019, and provide evidences for the future surveillance, estimation of disease burden of influenza B, application of quadrivalent vaccines, and development of vaccine strategies. Methods: The epidemiological and virological surveillance data of influenza B from week 14 of 2011 to week 13 of 2019 obtained from National Influenza Surveillance Network were used to draw hot spot maps and conduct descriptive statistics to analyze the seasonality and age distribution of influenza B cases. The published antigenicity analysis results from the China Weekly Influenza Report were used to analyze the matching degree between the trivalent vaccine strain and the circulating influenza B strains. Results: From 2011 to 2019, the incidence of influenza B showed obvious seasonal characteristics, and influenza B virus co-circulated with influenza A virus in six winter-spring seasons, and influenza B virus/Victoria and Yamagata lineages circulated alternately. In some southern provinces, two lineages co-circulated in some southern areas in certain years. The age distribution of influenza B cases was double-peaked, and both lineages had the highest positive rate in age-group 5-15 years, with peaks at age of 10 years; B/Victoria virus had a sub-peak in age-group 25-35 years; B/Yamagata virus had a sub-peak in age-group 55-65 years. Trivalent influenza vaccine strain and influenza B epidemic strains mismatched in 2015-2016 and 2017-2018 seasons, matched in 2011-2012, 2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2014-2015 and 2016-2017 seasons, and moderately matched in 2018-2019 season, but reactivity was low. Conclusions: Influenza B mainly occurred in winter-spring season in China, and its intensity was lower than that of influenza A. There was a difference in the age distribution of the cases among different virus strains. Trivalent influenza vaccine strains and influenza B epidemic strains mismatched in several seasons. It is crucial to conduct continuous surveillance of influenza B and disease burden evaluation, improve vaccine immunization strategy, increase influenza vaccination rate to reduce the harm of influenza B in high-risk groups.
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Virus de la Influenza B , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Vigilancia de la Población , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , China/epidemiología , Humanos , Vacunas contra la Influenza/administración & dosificación , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estaciones del Año , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Cervical cancer rate is increasing recently. LncRNA UCA1 plays a role in gynecological tumors, but its expression and mechanism in cervical cancer have not yet been elucidated. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The tumor tissues and adjacent tissues of cervical cancer patients were collected to measure LncRNA UCA1 and miR-155 level by Real-time PCR. The Luciferase report analyzed the relationship between LncRNA UCA1 and miR-155. HeLa cells were separated into NC group, UCA1 siRNA group, UCA1 siRNA + miR-155 inhibitor group followed by analysis of cell proliferation, invasion and migration and EMT-related genes E-cadherin and Vimentin expression by Real time PCR. RESULTS: UCA1 level was elevated and miR-155 was reduced in cervical cancer tissues with significant differences compared to adjacent tissues (p <0.05). UCA1 was negatively correlated with miR-155 level (p <0.05). Patients with high UCA1 level showed short survival time (p <0.05). Down-regulation of UCA1 can significantly inhibit cell proliferation, migration and invasion. It can also increase E-cadherin expression and decrease Vimentin expression (p <0.05). MiR-155 is a target miRNA of UCA1. MiR-155 inhibitor can significantly reverse UCA1 siRNA's effect (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: UCA1 expression in cervical cancer is increased and related to patient survival and miR-155 expression is reduced. Lnc-RNA UCA1 regulates EMT occurrence in cervical cancer cells by targeting miR-155.
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MicroARNs/metabolismo , ARN Largo no Codificante/metabolismo , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/metabolismo , Anciano , Proliferación Celular , Supervivencia Celular , Transición Epitelial-Mesenquimal/genética , Femenino , Células HeLa , Humanos , MicroARNs/genética , Persona de Mediana Edad , ARN Largo no Codificante/genética , Células Tumorales Cultivadas , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/patologíaRESUMEN
Health care workers have higher risk of influenza infection because of their occupational exposure to infected patients. Infection of the health care workers may not only result in the increasing risk of the nosocomial infection and family transmission, but also disrupt the health services due to absence from work. Health care workers were recommended as a priority group of influenza vaccinationin more than 40 countries and regions in the world. In recent years, domestic surveys show that the influenza vaccine coverage among health care workers was low. This paper outlines the current status and related policies of influenza vaccination among health care workers in China and global. Additionally, we analyzed and discussed the proper immunization strategy of influenza vaccine for medical staff in China.
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Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , China , Personal de Salud , Humanos , VacunaciónRESUMEN
Objective: We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland. Methods: The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM. Results: Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%). Conclusion: Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.
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Epidemias , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Orthomyxoviridae , China/epidemiología , Clima , Humanos , Sensibilidad y EspecificidadRESUMEN
Objective: Using three models too estimate excess mortality associated with influenza of Shanxi Province during 2013-2017. Methods: Mortality data and influenza surveillance data of 11 cities of Shanxi Province from the 2013-2014 through 2016-2017 were used to estimate influenza-associated all cause deaths, circulatory and respiratory deaths and respiratory deaths. Three models were used: (i) Serfling regression, (ii)Poisson regression, (iii)General line model. Results: The total reported death cases of all cause were 157 733, annual death cases of all cause were 39 433, among these cases, male cases 93 831 (59.50%), cases above 65 years old 123 931 (78.57%). Annual influenza-associated excess mortality, for all causes, circulatory and respiratory deaths, respiratory deaths were 8.62 deaths per 100 000, 6.33 deaths per 100 000 and 0.68 deaths per 100 000 estimated by Serfling model, respectively; and 21.30 deaths per 100 000, 16.89 deaths per 100 000 and 2.14 deaths per 100 000 estimated by General line model, respectively; and 21.76 deaths per 100 000, 17.03 deaths per 100 000 and 2.05 deaths per 100 000, estimated by Poisson model, respectively. Influenza-related excess mortality was higher in people over 75 years old; influenza-associated excess mortalityfor all causes, circulatory and respiratory deaths, respiratory deaths were 259.67 deaths per 100 000, 229.90 deaths per 100 000 and 32.63 deaths per 100 000, estimated by GLM model, respectively; and 269.49 deaths per 100 000, 233.69 deaths per 100 000 and 31.27 deaths per 100 000, estimated by Poisson model,respectively. Conclusion: Excess mortality associated with influenza mainly caused by A (H3N2), Influenza caused the most associated death amongold people.
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Gripe Humana/epidemiología , China/epidemiología , Ciudades , Humanos , Subtipo H3N2 del Virus de la Influenza A , Mortalidad/tendenciasRESUMEN
Objective: To systematically review the mortality burden study of influenza in mainland China. Method: "influenza", "flu", "H1N1", "pandemic", "mortality", "death", "fatality", "burden", "China" and "Chinese" were used as keywords, and a systematic literature search was conducted to identify articles in three English databases (PubMed, Web of Science and Embase) and three Chinese database (CNKI, WanFang and VIP) during 1990-2018 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). The language of literature was restricted to Chinese and English. The inclusion criteria were human-oriented researches with method based on population, and research indexes included mortality and excess mortality. The exclusion criteria were non-primary research materials, predictive research and research on the burden of avian influenza related deaths. A total of 17 literatures were included, and the basic information to descriptive characteristics, methodology of modeling and the corresponding results were extracted. Results: All the 17 studies adopted indirect statistical models, with 14 of which adopted the regression model, and all the research index was excess mortality. All causes (16 studies), respiratory and circulatory diseases (14 studies) and pneumonia and influenza (10 studies) were the main causes of death associated with influenza. Influenza associated mortality burden in the elderly was higher, with the lowest excess mortality rates of all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases, pneumonia and influenza being 49.57, 30.80 and 0.69 per 100 000 people, and the highest rates being 228.16, 170.20 and 30.35 per 100 000 people, respectively. In the non-elderly, the corresponding lowest rates were -0.27, -0.08 and 0.04 per 100 000 people respectively, and the highest rates were 3.63, 2.6 and 0.91 per 100 000 people, respectively. The influenza-related excess mortality was higher in the north, with a minimum of 7.8 per 100 000 and a maximum of 18.0 per 100 000, and slightly lower in the south, with a minimum of 6.11 per 100 000 and a maximum of 18.7 per 100 000. There were also differences in deaths caused by different influenza virus subtypes, with influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B virus possibly posing a heavier mortality burden. Conclusions: Studies on influenza mortality burden is mainly based on indirect model and urban level in China. The mortality burden of influenza in the elderly, the northern and subtype A(H3N2) and B were more severe.