Prediction of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale: comparative analysis of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and ARIMA model.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to analyze the trend of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale at Chenggong Hospital of Kunming Yan'an Hospital between January 2018 and December 2022.Additionally, the study will compare the application of the ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model in predicting the number of chronic cor pulmonale cases. METHODS: The data on chronic cor pulmonale cases from 2018 to 2022 were collected from the electronic medical records system of Chenggong Hospital of Kunming Yan'an Hospital. The ARIMA and Holt-Winters models were constructed using monthly case numbers from January 2018 to December 2022 as training data. The performance of the model was tested using the monthly number of cases from January 2023 to December 2023 as the test set. RESULTS: The number of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale in Chenggong Hospital of Kunming Yan'an Hospital exhibited a downward trend overall from 2018 to 2022. There were more cases in winter and spring, with peaks observed in November to December and January of the following year. The optimal ARIMA model was determined to be ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12, while for the Holt-Winters model, the optimal choice was the Holt-Winters multiplicative model. It was found that the Holt-Winters multiplicative model yielded the lowest error. CONCLUSION: The Holt-Winters multiplicative model predicts better accuracy. The diagnosis of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale is related to many risk factors, therefore, when using temporal models to fit and predict the data, we must consider such factors' influence and try to incorporate them into the models.

Intra-articular Injection of Chitosan-Based Supramolecular Hydrogel for Osteoarthritis Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Pain and cartilage destruction caused by osteoarthritis (OA) is a major challenge in clinical treatment. Traditional intra-articular injection of hyaluronic acid (HA) can relieve the disease, but limited by the difficulty of long-term maintenance of efficacy. METHODS: In this study, an injectable and self-healing hydrogel was synthesized by in situ crosslinking of N-carboxyethyl chitosan (N-chitosan), adipic acid dihydrazide (ADH), and hyaluronic acid-aldehyde (HA-ALD). RESULTS: This supramolecular hydrogel sustains good biocompatibility for chondrocytes. Intra-articular injection of this novel hydrogel can significantly alleviate the local inflammation microenvironment in knee joints, through inhibiting the inflammatory cytokines (such as TNF-α, IL-1ß, IL-6 and IL-17) in the synovial fluid and cartilage at 2- and even 12-weeks post-injection. Histological and behavioral test indicated that hydrogel injection protected cartilage destruction and relieved pain in OA rats, in comparison to HA injection. CONCLUSION: This kind of novel hydrogel, which is superior to the traditional HA injection, reveals a great potential for the treatment of OA.