Predicting disease severity in multiple sclerosis using multimodal data and machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis patients would benefit from machine learning algorithms that integrates clinical, imaging and multimodal biomarkers to define the risk of disease activity. METHODS: We have analysed a prospective multi-centric cohort of 322 MS patients and 98 healthy controls from four MS centres, collecting disability scales at baseline and 2 years later. Imaging data included brain MRI and optical coherence tomography, and omics included genotyping, cytomics and phosphoproteomic data from peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Predictors of clinical outcomes were searched using Random Forest algorithms. Assessment of the algorithm performance was conducted in an independent prospective cohort of 271 MS patients from a single centre. RESULTS: We found algorithms for predicting confirmed disability accumulation for the different scales, no evidence of disease activity (NEDA), onset of immunotherapy and the escalation from low- to high-efficacy therapy with intermediate to high-accuracy. This accuracy was achieved for most of the predictors using clinical data alone or in combination with imaging data. Still, in some cases, the addition of omics data slightly increased algorithm performance. Accuracies were comparable in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: Combining clinical, imaging and omics data with machine learning helps identify MS patients at risk of disability worsening.

Oligoclonal IgM bands in the cerebrospinal fluid of patients with relapsing MS to inform long-term MS disability.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic markers are needed to guide multiple sclerosis (MS) management in the context of large availability of disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers to inform long-term MS outcomes. METHODS: Demographic features, IgM index, oligoclonal IgM bands (OCMB), lipid-specific OCMB, CSF neurofilament light chain protein levels, expanded disability status scale (EDSS), relapses and DMD use over the study period and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) and ganglion cell plus inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thicknesses in non-optic neuritis eyes (end of follow-up) were collected from relapsing MS (RMS) patients with CSF obtained ⩽2 years after MS onset prospectively followed at the Hospital Clinic of Barcelona. We assessed associations between CSF markers and MS outcomes using multivariable models. RESULTS: A total of 89 patients (71 females; median 32.9 years of age) followed over a median of 9.6 years were included. OCMB were associated with a 33% increase in the annualized relapse rate (ARR; p = 0.06), higher odds for high-efficacy DMDs use (OR = 4.8; 95% CI = (1.5, 16.1)), thinner pRNFL (ß = -4.4; 95% CI = (-8.6, -0.2)) and GCIPL (ß = -2.9; 95% CI = (-5.9, +0.05)), and higher rates to EDSS ⩾ 3.0 (HR = 4.4; 95% CI = (1.6, 11.8)) and EDSS ⩾ 4.0 (HR = 5.4; 95% CI = (1.1, 27.1)). No overall associations were found for other CSF markers. CONCLUSION: The presence of OCMB was associated with unfavorable long-term outcomes. OCMB should be determined in RMS to inform long-term prognosis.

Retinal and brain damage during multiple sclerosis course: inflammatory activity is a key factor in the first 5 years.

Understanding of the role of focal inflammation, a treatable feature, on neuro-axonal injury, is paramount to optimize neuroprotective strategy in MS. To quantify the impact of focal inflammatory activity on the rate of neuro-axonal injury over the MS course. We quantified the annualized rates of change in peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer, ganglion cell plus inner plexiform layer (GCIPL), whole-brain, gray matter and thalamic volumes in patients with and without focal inflammatory activity in 161 patients followed over 5 years. We used mixed models including focal inflammatory activity (the presence of at least one relapse or a new/enlarging T2-FLAIR or gadolinium- enhancing lesion), and its interaction with time adjusted by age, sex, use of disease-modifying therapies and steroids, and prior optic neuritis. The increased rate of neuro-axonal injury during the first five years after onset was more prominent among active patients, as reflected by the changes in GCIPL thickness (p = 0.02), whole brain (p = 0.002) and thalamic volumes (p < 0.001). Thereafter, rates of retinal and brain changes stabilized and were similar in active and stable patients. Focal inflammatory activity is associated with neurodegeneration early in MS which reinforces the use of an early intensive anti-inflammatory therapy to prevent neurodegeneration in MS.

Using Acute Optic Neuritis Trials to Assess Neuroprotective and Remyelinating Therapies in Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Neuroprotective and remyelinating therapies are required for multiple sclerosis (MS), and acute optic neuritis (AON) is a potential condition to evaluate such treatments. Objective: To comprehensively assess key biological and methodological aspects of AON trials for testing neuroprotection and remyelination in MS. Design, Setting, and Participants: The AON-VisualPath prospective cohort study was conducted from February 2011 to November 2018 at the Hospital Clinic of University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. Consecutive patients with AON were prospectively enrolled in the cohort and followed up for 18 months. Data analyses occurred from November 2018 to February 2019. Exposures: Participants were followed up for 18 months using optical coherence tomography, visual acuity tests, and in a subset of 25 participants, multifocal visual evoked potentials. Main Outcomes and Measures: Dynamic models of retinal changes and nerve conduction and their associations with visual end points; and eligibility criteria, stratification, and sample-size estimation for future trials. Results: A total of 60 patients (50 women [83%]; median age, 34 years) with AON were included. The patients studied displayed early and intense inner retinal thinning, with a thinning rate of approximately 2.38 µm per week in the ganglion cell plus inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) during the first 4 weeks. Eyes with AON displayed a 6-month change in latency of about 20 milliseconds, while the expected change in the eyes of healthy participants by random variability was 0.13 (95% CI, -0.80 to 1.06) milliseconds. The strongest associations with visual end points were for the 6-month intereye difference in 2.5% low-contrast letter acuity, which was correlated with the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thinning (adjusted R2, 0.57), GCIPL thinning (adjusted R2, 0.50), and changes in mfVEP latency (adjusted R2, 0.26). A 5-letter increment in high-contrast visual acuity at presentation (but not sex or age) was associated with 6-month retinal thinning (1.41 [95% CI, 0.60-2.23] µm less peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thinning thinning; P = .001; adjusted R2, 0.20; 0.86 [95% CI, 0.35-1.37] µm less GCIPL thinning; P = .001; adjusted R2, 0.19) but not any change in multifocal visual evoked potential latency. To demonstrate 50% efficacy in GCIPL thinning or change in multifocal visual evoked potential latency, a 6-month, 2-arm, parallel-group trial would need 37 or 50 participants per group to test a neuroprotective or remyelinating drug, respectively (power, 80%; α, .05). Conclusions and Relevance: Acute optic neuritis is a suitable condition to test neuroprotective and remyelinating therapies after acute inflammation, providing sensitive markers to assess the effects on both processes and prospective visual recovery within a manageable timeframe and with a relatively small sample size.

Rebound of multiple sclerosis activity after fingolimod withdrawal due to planning pregnancy: Analysis of predisposing factors.

BACKGROUND: Rebound of multiple sclerosis (MS) activity has been described after the withdrawal of high-efficacy drugs, but its impact during pregnancy is less known. We describe a series of cases of rebound syndrome after the cessation of fingolimod due to pregnancy planning. METHODS: The clinical and radiological data of 7 MS patients who discontinued fingolimod therapy between May 2012 and March 2018 to plan a pregnancy was analysed. RESULTS: Three (42.8%) of the 7 patients experienced a rebound effect, all of whom became pregnant. During pregnancy, the 3 patients had a mean (SD) of 5.3 (1.3) relapses, and 13 of the 15 relapses were treated with intravenous steroids and/or immunoglobulin. These patients experienced a median increase of 3 points in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (range, 2-4), as well as a median increase of 27 new gadolinium-enhancing lesions (range, 9-40) and 38 new T2 lesions in a post-partum MRI (range, 21-70). The 3 pregnancies resulted in the delivery of healthy babies. A strong correlation was found between the lymphocyte count at fingolimod onset and the annual relapse rate in the period without therapy (r= -0.84, p = 0.005). The time to first relapse was shorter in patients who had <300/µl lymphocytes at fingolimod onset (median time 46 vs 426 days, p = 0.010). CONCLUSION: Rebound activity after fingolimod suspension represents a severe long-lasting inflammatory syndrome that may affect up to 40% of female MS patient who discontinue therapy due to pregnancy planning. Lymphopenia (<300/µl) in the first 3 months of fingolimod onset may predispose patients to suffer earlier and higher disease activity upon cessation.

Immune tolerance in multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica with peptide-loaded tolerogenic dendritic cells in a phase 1b trial.

There are adaptive T-cell and antibody autoimmune responses to myelin-derived peptides in multiple sclerosis (MS) and to aquaporin-4 (AQP4) in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSDs). Strategies aimed at antigen-specific tolerance to these autoantigens are thus indicated for these diseases. One approach involves induction of tolerance with engineered dendritic cells (tolDCs) loaded with specific antigens. We conducted an in-human phase 1b clinical trial testing increasing concentrations of autologous tolDCs loaded with peptides from various myelin proteins and from AQP4. We tested this approach in 12 patients, 8 with MS and 4 with NMOSD. The primary end point was the safety and tolerability, while secondary end points were clinical outcomes (relapses and disability), imaging (MRI and optical coherence tomography), and immunological responses. Therapy with tolDCs was well tolerated, without serious adverse events and with no therapy-related reactions. Patients remained stable clinically in terms of relapse, disability, and in various measurements using imaging. We observed a significant increase in the production of IL-10 levels in PBMCs stimulated with the peptides as well as an increase in the frequency of a regulatory T cell, known as Tr1, by week 12 of follow-up. In this phase 1b trial, we concluded that the i.v. administration of peptide-loaded dendritic cells is safe and feasible. Elicitation of specific IL-10 production by peptide-specific T cells in MS and NMOSD patients indicates that a key element in antigen specific tolerance is activated with this approach. The results warrant further clinical testing in larger trials.

MAPK pathway and B cells overactivation in multiple sclerosis revealed by phosphoproteomics and genomic analysis.

Dysregulation of signaling pathways in multiple sclerosis (MS) can be analyzed by phosphoproteomics in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). We performed in vitro kinetic assays on PBMCs in 195 MS patients and 60 matched controls and quantified the phosphorylation of 17 kinases using xMAP assays. Phosphoprotein levels were tested for association with genetic susceptibility by typing 112 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with MS susceptibility. We found increased phosphorylation of MP2K1 in MS patients relative to the controls. Moreover, we identified one SNP located in the PHDGH gene and another on IRF8 gene that were associated with MP2K1 phosphorylation levels, providing a first clue on how this MS risk gene may act. The analyses in patients treated with disease-modifying drugs identified the phosphorylation of each receptor's downstream kinases. Finally, using flow cytometry, we detected in MS patients increased STAT1, STAT3, TF65, and HSPB1 phosphorylation in CD19+ cells. These findings indicate the activation of cell survival and proliferation (MAPK), and proinflammatory (STAT) pathways in the immune cells of MS patients, primarily in B cells. The changes in the activation of these kinases suggest that these pathways may represent therapeutic targets for modulation by kinase inhibitors.

Axonal and Myelin Neuroprotection by the Peptoid BN201 in Brain Inflammation.

The development of neuroprotective therapies is a sought-after goal. By screening combinatorial chemical libraries using in vitro assays, we identified the small molecule BN201 that promotes the survival of cultured neural cells when subjected to oxidative stress or when deprived of trophic factors. Moreover, BN201 promotes neuronal differentiation, the differentiation of precursor cells to mature oligodendrocytes in vitro, and the myelination of new axons. BN201 modulates several kinases participating in the insulin growth factor 1 pathway including serum-glucocorticoid kinase and midkine, inducing the phosphorylation of NDRG1 and the translocation of the transcription factor Foxo3 to the cytoplasm. In vivo, BN201 prevents axonal and neuronal loss, and it promotes remyelination in models of multiple sclerosis, chemically induced demyelination, and glaucoma. In summary, we provide a new promising strategy to promote neuroaxonal survival and remyelination, potentially preventing disability in brain diseases.

Spanish validation of the telephone assessed Expanded Disability Status Scale and Patient Determined Disease Steps in people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Patient Determined Disease Steps (PDDS) are two of the most widely disability scales used in multiple sclerosis (MS). When physical visits are unavailable, remote evaluation through telephone interview may be helpful. We aimed to translate both scales into Spanish, and to 1) validate the telephone EDSS and PDDS, and 2) explore the association pattern between both telephone questionnaires. METHODS: 103 patients underwent a neurological examination to generate the EDSS and completed the PDDS questionnaire. Telephone questionnaires (EDSS, PDDS) were performed within 15 days. Feasibility and psychometric properties of both telephone questionnaires included internal consistency, acceptability, inter-rater agreement and validity. Test-retest reliability was evaluated in 36 patients. RESULTS: Both scales showed excellent internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The agreement between conventional and telephone assessments in ambulatory impaired patients (EDSS > 4.0) was good for EDSS (kappa = 0.72) and excellent for PDDS (kappa = 0.93); fully ambulatory patients (EDSS ≤ 4.0) showed lower values (kappa = 0.24, and 0.54, respectively). Full agreement was higher for telephone PDDS than telephone EDSS (78% vs 44%). Overestimation of disability was more frequent in fully ambulatory patients. Strong correlation was found between telephone questionnaires (rho = 0.88; p < 0.001). The pattern of association was not isomorphic, but a PDDS cut-off of 3 identified with high accuracy patients with ambulatory impairment. DISCUSSION: Telephone EDSS and PDDS questionnaires for Spanish patients are valid tools to assess disability status in MS and offer complementary information. Patients with ambulatory impairment are those who benefit the most from a remote assessment.

Magnetic resonance markers of tissue damage related to connectivity disruption in multiple sclerosis.

Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) display reduced structural connectivity among brain regions, but the pathogenic mechanisms underlying network disruption are still unknown. We aimed to investigate the association between the loss of diffusion-based structural connectivity, measured with graph theory metrics, and magnetic resonance (MR) markers of microstructural damage. Moreover, we evaluated the cognitive consequences of connectivity changes. We analysed the frontoparietal network in 102 MS participants and 25 healthy volunteers (HV). MR measures included radial diffusivity (RD), as marker of demyelination, and ratios of myo-inositol, N-acetylaspartate and glutamate+glutamine with creatine in white (WM) and grey matter as markers of astrogliosis, neuroaxonal integrity and glutamatergic neurotoxicity. Patients showed decreased global and local efficiency, and increased assortativity (p < 0.01) of the network, as well as increased RD and myo-inositol, and decreased N-acetylaspartate in WM compared with HV (p < 0.05). In patients, the age-adjusted OR of presenting abnormal global and local efficiency was increased for each increment of 0.01 points in RD and myo-inositol, while it was decreased for each increment of 0.01 points in N-acetylaspartate (the increase of N-acetylaspartate reduced the risk of having abnormal connectivity), all in WM. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, the OR of presenting abnormal global efficiency was 0.95 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.91-0.99, p = 0.011) for each 0.01 increase in N-acetylaspartate, and the OR of presenting abnormal local efficiency was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.14-1.71, p = 0.001) for each 0.01 increase in RD. Patients with abnormal efficiency had worse performance in attention, working memory and processing speed (p < 0.05). In conclusion, patients with MS exhibit decreased structural network efficiency driven by diffuse microstructural impairment of the WM, probably related to demyelination, astroglial and neuroaxonal damage. The accumulation of neuroaxonal pathological burden seems to magnify the risk of global network collapse, while demyelination may contribute to the regional disorganization. These network modifications have negative consequences on cognition.

Combined walking outcome measures identify clinically meaningful response to prolonged-release fampridine.

BACKGROUND: Gait impairment is common in multiple sclerosis (MS) and negatively impacts patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Prolonged-release fampridine (PR-fam) improves walking speed, but it is unclear which walking measures are the most suitable for identifying treatment response. Our aim was to assess the effect of PR-fam and the outcome measures that best identify short- and long-term clinically meaningful response. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study in 32 MS patients treated with PR-fam for a year. The assessments at 2 weeks, 3, 6 and 12 months included: timed 25-foot walk (T25FW), 6-minute walk test (6MWT), MS Walking Scale-12 (MSWS-12), a five-level version of the EuroQoL-5 dimensions, and accelerometry. PR-fam response was defined as an improvement in T25FW ⩾20%. RESULTS: Twenty-five (78%) patients were considered responders after 2 weeks of PR-fam and improved significantly in all measures. Responders to T25FW and MSWS-12 (n = 19) showed a significant improvement in HRQoL and accelerometer data compared with responders only to T25FW (n = 6). At 1 year, 15/20 (75%) patients remained responders, but only those with permanent response to T25FW and MSWS-12 (n = 8; 53%) showed a significant improvement in 6MWT and HRQoL. CONCLUSION: The combination of T25FW and MSWS-12 identify better those patients with a clinically significant benefit of PR-fam.

Assessing Biological and Methodological Aspects of Brain Volume Loss in Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Before using brain volume loss (BVL) as a marker of therapeutic response in multiple sclerosis (MS), certain biological and methodological issues must be clarified. Objectives: To assess the dynamics of BVL as MS progresses and to evaluate the repeatability and exchangeability of BVL estimates with Jacobian Integration (JI) and Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Brain (FMRIB) Software Library (FSL) (specifically, the Structural Image Evaluation, Using Normalisation, of Atrophy-Cross-Sectional [SIENA-X] tool or FMRIB's Integrated Registration and Segmentation Tool [FIRST]). Design, Setting, and Participants: A cohort of patients who had either clinically isolated syndrome or MS was enrolled from February 2011 through October 2015. All underwent a series of annual magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Images from 2 cohorts of healthy volunteers were used to evaluate short-term repeatability of the MRI measurements (n = 34) and annual BVL (n = 20). Data analysis occurred from January to May 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: The goodness of fit of different models to the dynamics of BVL throughout the MS disease course was assessed. The short-term test-retest error was used as a measure of JI and FSL repeatability. The correlations (R2) of the changes quantified in the brain using JI and FSL, together with the accuracy of the annual BVL cutoffs to discriminate patients with MS from healthy volunteers, were used to measure compatibility of imaging methods. Results: A total of 140 patients with clinically isolated syndrome or MS were enrolled, including 95 women (67.9%); the group had a median (interquartile range) age of 40.7 (33.6-48.1) years. Patients underwent 4 MRI scans with a median (interquartile range) interscan period of 364 (351-379) days. The 34 healthy volunteers (of whom 18 [53%] were women; median [IQR] age, 33.5 [26.2-42.5] years) and 20 healthy volunteers (of whom 10 [50%] were women; median [IQR] age, 33.0 [28.7-39.2] years) underwent 2 MRI scans within a median (IQR) of 24.5 (0.0-74.5) days and 384.5 (366.3-407.8) days for the short-term and long-term MRI follow-up, respectively. The BVL rates were higher in the first 5 years after MS onset (R2 = 0.65 for whole-brain volume change and R2 = 0.52 for gray matter volume change) with a direct association with steroids (ß = 0.280; P = .02) and an inverse association with age at MS onset, particularly in the first 5 years (ß = 0.015; P = .047). The reproducibility of FSL (SIENA) and JI was similar for whole-brain volume loss, while JI gave more precise, less biased estimates for specific brain regions than FSL (SIENA-X and FIRST). The correlation between whole-brain volume loss using JI and FSL was high (R2 = 0.92), but the same correlations were poor for specific brain regions. The area under curve of the whole-brain volume change to discriminate between patients with MS and healthy volunteers was similar, although the thresholds and accuracy index were distinct for JI and FSL. Conclusions and Relevance: The proposed BVL threshold of less than 0.4% per year as a marker of therapeutic efficiency should be reconsidered because of the different dynamics of BVL as MS progresses and because of the limited reproducibility and variability of estimates using different imaging methods.

Tolerogenic Dendritic Cells as a Promising Antigen-Specific Therapy in the Treatment of Multiple Sclerosis and Neuromyelitis Optica From Preclinical to Clinical Trials.

The identification of activated T-lymphocytes restricted to myelin-derived immunogenic peptides in multiple sclerosis (MS) and aquaporin-4 water channel in neuromyelitis optica (NMO) in the blood of patients opened the possibility for developing highly selective and disease-specific therapeutic approaches. Antigen presenting cells and in particular dendritic cells (DCs) represent a strategy to inhibit pro-inflammatory T helper cells. DCs are located in peripheral and lymphoid tissues and are essential for homeostasis of T cell-dependent immune responses. The expression of a particular set of receptors involved in pathogen recognition confers to DCs the property to initiate immune responses. However, in the absence of danger signals different DC subsets have been revealed to induce active tolerance by inducing regulatory T cells, inhibiting pro-inflammatory T helper cells responses or both. Interestingly, several protocols to generate clinical-grade tolerogenic DC (Tol-DC) in vitro have been described, offering the possibility to restore the homeostasis to central nervous system-related antigens. In this review, we discuss about different DC subsets and their role in tolerance induction, the different protocols to generate Tol-DCs and preclinical studies in animal models as well as describe recent characterization of Tol-DCs for clinical application in autoimmune diseases and in particular in MS and NMO patients. In addition, we discuss the clinical trials ongoing based on Tol-DCs to treat different autoimmune diseases.

Predictors of vision impairment in Multiple Sclerosis.

Visual impairment significantly alters the quality of life of people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). The objective of this study was to identify predictors (independent variables) of visual outcomes, and to define their relationship with neurological disability and retinal atrophy when assessed by optical coherence tomography (OCT). We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 119 consecutive patients with MS, assessing vision using high contrast visual acuity (LogMar), 2.5% and 1.25% low contrast visual acuity (Sloan charts), and color vision (Hardy-Rand-Rittler plates). Quality of vision is a patient reported outcome based on an individual's unique perception of his or her vision and was assessed with the Visual Functioning Questionnaire-25 (VFQ-25) with the 10 neuro-ophthalmologic items. MS disability was assessed using the expanded disability status scale (EDSS), the MS functional composite (MSFC) and the brief repetitive battery-neuropsychology (BRB-N). Retinal atrophy was assessed using spectral domain OCT, measuring the thickness of the peripapillar retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) and the volume of the ganglion cell plus inner plexiform layer (GCIPL). The vision of patients with MS was impaired, particularly in eyes with prior optic neuritis. Retinal atrophy (pRNFL and GCIPL) was closely associated with impaired low contrast vision and color vision, whereas the volume of the GCIPL showed a trend (p = 0.092) to be associated with quality of vision. Multiple regression analysis revealed that EDSS was an explanatory variable for high contrast vision after stepwise analysis, GCIPL volume for low contrast vision, and GCIPL volume and EDSS for color vision. The explanatory variables for quality of vision were high contrast vision and color vision. In summary, quality of vision in MS depends on the impairment of high contrast visual acuity and color vision due to the disease.

Early retinal atrophy predicts long-term visual impairment after acute optic neuritis.

BACKGROUND: Visual recovery after optic neuritis (ON) used to be defined as good, although patients frequently complain of poor vision. METHODS: We carried out a prospective study on 38 consecutive patients with acute ON followed monthly for 6 months and evaluated high- and low-contrast visual acuity (HCVA and LCVA, respectively), quality of vision (National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire-25 (NEI-VFQ-25)), visual fields, and retinal thickness by spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT). RESULTS: We found significant impaired LCVA and color vision in ON eyes 6 months after acute ON, which impact on quality of life. LCVA and color vision were correlated with the thicknesses of the ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer (GCIPL; 2.5% LCVA r = 0.65 and p = 0.0001; color vision r = 0.75 and p < 0.0001) and that of the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL; LCVA r = 0.43 and p = 0.0098; color vision r = 0.62 and p < 0.0001). Linear regression models that included the change in the GCIPL and pRNFL thicknesses from baseline to month 1 after onset explained 47% of the change in 2.5% LCVA and 67% of the change of color vision acuity. When adjusting for the value of visual acuity at baseline, predictors of the change in vision from baseline to month 6 achieved similar performance for all three types of vision (HCVA, LCVA, and color vision). CONCLUSION: Monitoring retinal atrophy by OCT within the first month after ON onset allows individuals at a high risk of residual visual impairment to be identified.

Dynamics and heterogeneity of brain damage in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease driving inflammatory and degenerative processes that damage the central nervous system (CNS). However, it is not well understood how these events interact and evolve to evoke such a highly dynamic and heterogeneous disease. We established a hypothesis whereby the variability in the course of MS is driven by the very same pathogenic mechanisms responsible for the disease, the autoimmune attack on the CNS that leads to chronic inflammation, neuroaxonal degeneration and remyelination. We propose that each of these processes acts more or less severely and at different times in each of the clinical subgroups. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model that was constrained by experimental data (the expanded disability status scale [EDSS] time series) obtained from a retrospective longitudinal cohort of 66 MS patients with a long-term follow-up (up to 20 years). Moreover, we validated this model in a second prospective cohort of 120 MS patients with a three-year follow-up, for which EDSS data and brain volume time series were available. The clinical heterogeneity in the datasets was reduced by grouping the EDSS time series using an unsupervised clustering analysis. We found that by adjusting certain parameters, albeit within their biological range, the mathematical model reproduced the different disease courses, supporting the dynamic CNS damage hypothesis to explain MS heterogeneity. Our analysis suggests that the irreversible axon degeneration produced in the early stages of progressive MS is mainly due to the higher rate of myelinated axon degeneration, coupled to the lower capacity for remyelination. However, and in agreement with recent pathological studies, degeneration of chronically demyelinated axons is not a key feature that distinguishes this phenotype. Moreover, the model reveals that lower rates of axon degeneration and more rapid remyelination make relapsing MS more resilient than the progressive subtype. Therefore, our results support the hypothesis of a common pathogenesis for the different MS subtypes, even in the presence of genetic and environmental heterogeneity. Hence, MS can be considered as a single disease in which specific dynamics can provoke a variety of clinical outcomes in different patient groups. These results have important implications for the design of therapeutic interventions for MS at different stages of the disease.

Metabolomic signatures associated with disease severity in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify differences in the metabolomic profile in the serum of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to controls and to identify biomarkers of disease severity. METHODS: We studied 2 cohorts of patients with MS: a retrospective longitudinal cohort of 238 patients and 74 controls and a prospective cohort of 61 patients and 41 controls with serial serum samples. Patients were stratified into active or stable disease based on 2 years of prospective assessment accounting for presence of clinical relapses or changes in disability measured with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Metabolomic profiling (lipids and amino acids) was performed by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry in serum samples. Data analysis was performed using parametric methods, principal component analysis, and partial least square discriminant analysis for assessing the differences between cases and controls and for subgroups based on disease severity. RESULTS: We identified metabolomics signatures with high accuracy for classifying patients vs controls as well as for classifying patients with medium to high disability (EDSS >3.0). Among them, sphingomyelin and lysophosphatidylethanolamine were the metabolites that showed a more robust pattern in the time series analysis for discriminating between patients and controls. Moreover, levels of hydrocortisone, glutamic acid, tryptophan, eicosapentaenoic acid, 13S-hydroxyoctadecadienoic acid, lysophosphatidylcholines, and lysophosphatidylethanolamines were associated with more severe disease (non-relapse-free or increase in EDSS). CONCLUSIONS: We identified metabolomic signatures composed of hormones, lipids, and amino acids associated with MS and with a more severe course.

Impairment of decision-making in multiple sclerosis: A neuroeconomic approach.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the decision-making impairment in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and how they relate to other cognitive domains. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis in 84 patients with MS, and 21 matched healthy controls using four tasks taken from behavioral economics: (1) risk preferences, (2) choice consistency, (3) delay of gratification, and (4) rate of learning. All tasks were conducted using real-world reward outcomes (food or money) in different real-life conditions. Participants underwent cognitive examination using the Brief Repeatable Battery-Neuropsychology. RESULTS: Patients showed higher risk aversion (general propensity to choose the lottery was 0.51 vs 0.64, p = 0.009), a trend to choose more immediate rewards over larger but delayed rewards ( p = 0.108), and had longer reactions times ( p = 0.033). Choice consistency and learning rates were not different between groups. Progressive patients chose slower than relapsing patients. In relation to general cognitive impairments, we found correlations between impaired decision-making and impaired verbal memory ( r = 0.29, p = 0.009), visual memory ( r = -0.37, p = 0.001), and reduced processing speed ( r = -0.32, p = 0.001). Normalized gray matter volume correlated with deliberation time ( r = -0.32, p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Patients with MS suffer significant decision-making impairments, even at the early stages of the disease, and may affect patients' quality and social life.

Total Cerebral Blood Flow in Patients with Cardioembolic Stroke: Is It Clinically Meaningful?

Chronic hypoperfusion may hinder the washout of emboli coming from the heart and facilitate the formation of intra-cavitary thrombi. We investigated whether a decreased total cerebral blood flow (tCBF) resulted in recurrence of stroke and other vascular events in consecutive patients with cardioembolic stroke. We excluded patients with extra-cranial carotid or vertebral stenosis. The recorded tCBF was the sum of blood flow in both the carotid and vertebral extra-cranial arteries as measured with ultrasonography. Patients were followed up to assess stroke recurrence, vascular events and mortality. We also recorded demographic data, vascular risk factors, treatment data, echocardiographic variables and the C congestive heart failure history H Hypertension history A Age D Diabetes S Sex S2 Stroke/TIA/Thromboembolism history Vasc Vascular Disease history (CHA2DS2-VASc) score. We studied 79 patients (age 77.9 ± 8.4 y). Mean tCBF was 65.5 ± 15.7 mL/100 g/min. Cox regression analysis found that CHA2 DS2-VASc score and ejection fraction were associated with tCBF. After a mean follow-up of 22 ± 8.5 mo, 7.6% of patients experienced a recurrent stroke, 12.7% experienced a vascular event and 21.5% of patients died. Clinical outcomes were not predicted by tCBF.

Retinal thickness measured with optical coherence tomography and risk of disability worsening in multiple sclerosis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with multiple sclerosis without previous optic neuritis have thinner retinal layers than healthy controls. We assessed the role of peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer (pRNFL) thickness and macular volume in eyes with no history of optic neuritis as a biomarker of disability worsening in a cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis who had at least one eye without optic neuritis available. METHODS: In this multicentre, cohort study, we collected data about patients (age ≥16 years old) with clinically isolated syndrome, relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, and progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients were recruited from centres in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Canada, and the USA, with the first cohort starting in 2008 and the latest cohort starting in 2013. We assessed disability worsening using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). The pRNFL thickness and macular volume were assessed once at study entry (baseline) by optical coherence tomography (OCT) and was calculated as the mean value of both eyes without optic neuritis for patients without a history of optic neuritis or the value of the non-optic neuritis eye for patients with previous unilateral optic neuritis. Researchers who did the OCT at baseline were masked to EDSS results and the researchers assessing disability with EDSS were masked to OCT results. We estimated the association of pRNFL thickness or macular volume at baseline in eyes without optic neuritis with the risk of subsequent disability worsening by use of proportional hazards models that included OCT metrics and age, disease duration, disability, presence of previous unilateral optic neuritis, and use of disease-modifying therapies as covariates. FINDINGS: 879 patients with clinically isolated syndrome (n=74), relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (n=664), or progressive multiple sclerosis (n=141) were included in the primary analyses. Disability worsening occurred in 252 (29%) of 879 patients with multiple sclerosis after a median follow-up of 2·0 years (range 0·5-5 years). Patients with a pRNFL of less than or equal to 87 µm or less than or equal to 88 µm (measured with Spectralis or Cirrus OCT devices) had double the risk of disability worsening at any time after the first and up to the third years of follow-up (hazard ratio 2·06, 95% CI 1·36-3·11; p=0·001), and the risk was increased by nearly four times after the third and up to the fifth years of follow-up (3·81, 1·63-8·91; p=0·002). We did not identify meaningful associations for macular volume. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide evidence of the usefulness of monitoring pRNFL thickness by OCT for prediction of the risk of disability worsening with time in patients with multiple sclerosis. FUNDING: Instituto de Salud Carlos III.