Costs of obesity attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil.

Excess sugar is considered one of the primary factors contributing to overweight status. In Brazil, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) contain a significant amount of this nutrient and are consumed excessively. These beverages are associated with adverse health outcomes and impose costs on the healthcare system. The literature currently lacks studies that aim to attribute specific nutrients or foods as causes of diseases and also evaluate their economic impact, especially in middle- and low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the direct and indirect costs of obesity, stratified by sex and age group, resulting from the excessive consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil from 2008 to 2020, and to project these costs for the year 2036. The estimation of obesity costs attributable to excessive consumption of SSBs was based on relative risks and the population prevalence of obesity, considering expenditures on hospitalizations and outpatient procedures in the Unified Health System (SUS). Cost information was obtained from the health information systems available at SUS. The highest burden attributable to the consumption of SSBs was observed among younger individuals and progressively decreased with advancing age. The total direct costs in the period between 2008 and 2020 amounted to approximately US$ 6.33 million, 87% of which was related to expenses for females. Additionally, deaths resulting from the consumption of SSBs cost the economy US$ 40 million due to the premature loss of productivity. The total costs of obesity attributable to the consumption of SSBs are substantial, impacting public spending and generating social and productivity losses that burden the economy. It is crucial to develop and implement cost-effective fiscal and regulatory policies aimed at preventing and combating obesity.

Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.

Aims: We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity. Methods: The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence. We developed a model for the Brazilian population from 2006 to 2036. Data on the Brazilian population in relation to sex and age were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and data on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and smoking were collected from the Surveillance of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL). Results: The observed prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Brazilians aged over 25 years was 10.8% (5.2-14.3%) in 2006, increasing to 13.7% (6.9-18.4%) in 2020. Between 2006 and 2020, the observed prevalence in men increased from 11.0 to 19.1% and women from 10.6 to 21.3%. The model forecasts a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2036 (27.0% overall, 17.1% in men and 35.9% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declines by 1% per year from 2020 to 2036 (Scenario 1), the prevalence of diabetes decreases from 26.3 to 23.7, which represents approximately a 10.0% drop in 16 years. If obesity declined by 5% per year in 16 years as an optimistic target (Scenario 2), the prevalence of diabetes decreased from 26.3 to 21.2, representing a 19.4% drop in diabetes prevalence. Conclusion: The model predicts an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil. Even with ambitious targets to reduce obesity prevalence, type 2 diabetes in Brazil will continue to have a large impact on Brazilian public health.