Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for 1-Year Mortality in Patients With a Hematologic Malignancy Admitted to the ICU.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prediction model for 1-year mortality in patients with a hematologic malignancy acutely admitted to the ICU. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five university hospitals in the Netherlands between 2002 and 2015. PATIENTS: A total of 1097 consecutive patients with a hematologic malignancy were acutely admitted to the ICU for at least 24 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We created a 13-variable model from 22 potential predictors. Key predictors included active disease, age, previous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, mechanical ventilation, lowest platelet count, acute kidney injury, maximum heart rate, and type of malignancy. A bootstrap procedure reduced overfitting and improved the model's generalizability. This involved estimating the optimism in the initial model and shrinking the regression coefficients accordingly in the final model. We assessed performance using internal-external cross-validation by center and compared it with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model. Additionally, we evaluated clinical usefulness through decision curve analysis. The overall 1-year mortality rate observed in the study was 62% (95% CI, 59-65). Our 13-variable prediction model demonstrated acceptable calibration and discrimination at internal-external validation across centers (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI, 0.63-0.77), outperforming the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model (C-statistic 0.61; 95% CI, 0.57-0.65). Decision curve analysis indicated overall net benefit within a clinically relevant threshold probability range of 60-100% predicted 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our newly developed 13-variable prediction model predicts 1-year mortality in hematologic malignancy patients admitted to the ICU more accurately than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model. This model may aid in shared decision-making regarding the continuation of ICU care and end-of-life considerations.

Long-Term Outcome of Patients With a Hematologic Malignancy and Multiple Organ Failure Admitted at the Intensive Care.

OBJECTIVES: Historically, patients with a hematologic malignancy have one of the highest mortality rates among cancer patients admitted to the ICU. Therefore, physicians are often reluctant to admit these patients to the ICU. The aim of our study was to examine the survival of patients who have a hematologic malignancy and multiple organ failure admitted to the ICU. DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study, part of the HEMA-ICU study group, was designed to study the survival of patients with a hematologic malignancy and organ failure after admission to the ICU. Patients were followed for at least 1 year. SETTING: Five university hospitals in the Netherlands. PATIENTS: One-thousand ninety-seven patients with a hematologic malignancy who were admitted at the ICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Primary outcome was 1-year survival. Organ failure was categorized as acute kidney injury, respiratory failure, hepatic failure, and hemodynamic failure; multiple organ failure was defined as failure of two or more organs. The World Health Organization performance score measured 3 months after discharge from the ICU was used as a measure of functional outcome. The 1-year survival rate among these patients was 38%. Multiple organ failure was inversely associated with long-term survival, and an absence of respiratory failure was the strongest predictor of 1-year survival. The survival rate among patients with 2, 3, and 4 failing organs was 27%, 22%, and 8%, respectively. Among all surviving patients for which World Health Organization scores were available, 39% had a World Health Organization performance score of 0-1 3 months after ICU discharge. Functional outcome was not associated with the number of failing organs. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that multiple organ failure should not be used as a criterion for excluding a patient with a hematologic malignancy from admission to the ICU.

Time trend analysis of long term outcome of patients with haematological malignancies admitted at dutch intensive care units.

A few decades ago, the chances of survival for patients with a haematological malignancy needing Intensive Care Unit (ICU) support were minimal. As a consequence, ICU admission policy was cautious. We hypothesized that the long-term outcome of patients with a haematological malignancy admitted to the ICU has improved in recent years. Furthermore, our objective was to evaluate the predictive value of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score. A total of 1095 patients from 5 Dutch university hospitals were included from 2003 until 2015. We studied the prevalence of patients' characteristics over time. By using annual odds ratios, we analysed which patients' characteristics could have had influenced possible trends in time. A approximated mortality rate was compared with the ICU mortality rate, to study the predictive value of the APACHE II score. Overall one-year mortality was 62%. The annual decrease in one-year mortality was 7%, whereas the APACHE II score increased over time. Decreased mortality rates were particularly observed in high-risk patients (acute myeloid leukaemia, old age, low platelet count, bleeding as admission reason and need for mechanical ventilation within 24 h of ICU admission). Furthermore, the APACHE II score overestimates mortality in this patient category.