Personalized decision-making for aneurysm treatment of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: development and validation of a clinical prediction tool.

BACKGROUND: In patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage suitable for endovascular coiling and neurosurgical clip-reconstruction, the aneurysm treatment decision-making process could be improved by considering heterogeneity of treatment effect and durability of treatment. We aimed to develop and validate a tool to predict individualized treatment benefit of endovascular coiling compared to neurosurgical clip-reconstruction. METHODS: We used randomized data (International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial, n = 2143) to develop models to predict 2-month functional outcome and to predict time-to-rebleed-or-retreatment. We modeled for heterogeneity of treatment effect by adding interaction terms of treatment with prespecified predictors and with baseline risk of the outcome. We predicted outcome with both treatments and calculated absolute treatment benefit. We described the patient characteristics of patients with ≥ 5% point difference in the predicted probability of favorable functional outcome (modified Rankin Score 0-2) and of no rebleed or retreatment within 10 years. Model performance was expressed with the c-statistic and calibration plots. We performed bootstrapping and leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation and pooled cluster-specific c-statistics with random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The pooled c-statistics were 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69-0.75) for the prediction of 2-month favorable functional outcome and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.63-0.71) for prediction of no rebleed or retreatment within 10 years. We found no significant interaction between predictors and treatment. The average predicted benefit in favorable functional outcome was 6% (95% CI: 3-10%) in favor of coiling, but 11% (95% CI: 9-13%) for no rebleed or retreatment in favor of clip-reconstruction. 134 patients (6%), young and in favorable clinical condition, had negligible functional outcome benefit of coiling but had a ≥ 5% point benefit of clip-reconstruction in terms of durability of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: We show that young patients in favorable clinical condition and without extensive vasospasm have a negligible benefit in functional outcome of endovascular coiling - compared to neurosurgical clip-reconstruction - while at the same time having a substantially lower probability of retreatment or rebleeding from neurosurgical clip-reconstruction - compared to endovascular coiling. The SHARP prediction tool ( https://sharpmodels.shinyapps.io/sharpmodels/ ) could support and incentivize a multidisciplinary discussion about aneurysm treatment decision-making by providing individualized treatment benefit estimates.

Endovascular versus neurosurgical aneurysm treatment: study protocol for the development and validation of a clinical prediction tool for individualised decision making.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment decisions for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage patients should be supported by individualised predictions of the effects of aneurysm treatment. We present a study protocol and analysis plan for the development and external validation of models to predict benefit of neurosurgical versus endovascular aneurysm treatment on functional outcome and durability of treatment. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use data from the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial for model development. The outcomes are functional outcome, measured with modified Rankin Scale at 12 months, and any retreatment or rebleed of the target aneurysm during follow-up. We will develop an ordinal logistic regression model and Cox regression model, considering age, World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade, Fisher grade, vasospasm at presentation, aneurysm lumen size, aneurysm neck size, aneurysm location and time-to-aneurysm-treatment as predictors. We will test for interactions with treatment and with baseline risk and derive individualised predicted probabilities of treatment benefit. A benefit of ≥5% will be considered clinically relevant. Discriminative performance of the outcome predictions will be assessed with the c-statistic. Calibration will be assessed with calibration plots. Discriminative performance of the benefit predictions will be assessed with the c-for benefit. We will assess internal validity with bootstrapping and external validity with leave-one-out internal-external cross-validation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The medical ethical research committee of the Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam approved the study protocol under the exemption category and waived the need for written informed consent (MEC-2020-0810). We will disseminate our results through an open-access peer-reviewed scientific publication and with a web-based clinical prediction tool.

Development of the SAFETEA Scores for Predicting Risks of Complications of Preventive Endovascular or Microneurosurgical Intracranial Aneurysm Occlusion.

OBJECTIVE: Preventive unruptured intracranial aneurysm occlusion can reduce the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage, but both endovascular and microneurosurgical treatment carry a risk of serious complications. To improve individualized management decisions, we developed risk scores for complications of endovascular and microneurosurgical treatment based on easily retrievable patient, aneurysm, and treatment characteristics. METHODS: For this multicenter cohort study, we combined individual patient data from unruptured intracranial aneurysm patients ≥18 years undergoing preventive endovascular treatment (standard, balloon-assisted or stent-assisted coiling, Woven EndoBridge-device, or flow-diverting stent) or microneurosurgical clipping at one of 10 participating centers from three continents between 2000-2018. The primary outcome was death from any cause or clinical deterioration from neurological complications ≤30 days. We selected predictors based on previous knowledge about relevant risk factors and predictor performance and studied the association between predictors and complications with logistic regression. We assessed model performance with calibration plots and concordance (c) statistics. RESULTS: Of 1282 included patients, 94 (7.3%) had neurological symptoms that resolved <30 days, 140 (10.9%) had persisting neurological symptoms, and 6 died (0.5%)). At 30 days, 52 patients (4.1%) were dead or dependent. Predictors of procedural complications were: size of aneurysm, aneurysm location, familial subarachnoid hemorrhage, earlier atherosclerotic disease, treatment volume, endovascular modality (for endovascular treatment) or extra aneurysm configuration factors (for microneurosurgical treatment; branching artery from aneurysm neck or unfavorable dome-to-neck ratio), and age (acronym: SAFETEA). For endovascular treatment (n=752), the c-statistic was 0.72 (95%CI:0.67-0.77) and the absolute complication risk ranged from 3.2% (95%CI:1.6%-14.9%;≤1 point) to 33.1% (95%CI:25.4%-41.5%;≥6 points). For microneurosurgical treatment (n=530), the c-statistic was 0.72 (95%CI:0.67-0.77) and the complication risk ranged from 4.9% (95%CI:1.5%-14.9%;≤1 point) to 49.9% (95%CI:39.4%-60.6%;≥6 points). CONCLUSIONS: The SAFETEA risk scores for endovascular and microneurosurgical treatment are based on seven easily retrievable risk factors to predict the absolute risk of procedural complications in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms. The scores need external validation before the predicted risks can be properly used to support decision making in clinical practice.

Early predictors of functional outcome in poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) often receive delayed or no aneurysm treatment, although recent studies suggest that functional outcome following early aneurysm treatment has improved. We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze early predictors of functional outcome in poor-grade aSAH patients.  METHODS: We included studies investigating the association of early predictors and functional outcome in adult patients with confirmed poor-grade aSAH, defined as World Federation of Neurological Surgeons (WFNS) grade or Hunt and Hess (H-H) grade IV-V. Studies had to use multivariable regression analysis to estimate independent predictor effects of favorable functional outcome measured with the Glasgow Outcome Scale or modified Rankin Scale. We calculated pooled adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) with random effects models.  RESULTS: We included 27 studies with 3287 patients. The likelihood of favorable outcome increased with WFNS grade or H-H grade IV versus V (aOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.9-4.3), presence of clinical improvement before aneurysm treatment (aOR 3.3, 95% CI 2.0-5.3), and intact pupillary light reflex (aOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.6-5.1), and decreased with older age (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0, per decade), increasing modified Fisher grade (aOR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.5, per grade), and presence of intracerebral hematoma on admission imaging (aOR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8). CONCLUSIONS: We present a summary of early predictors of functional outcome in poor-grade aSAH patients that can help to discriminate between patients with favorable and with unfavorable prognosis and may aid in selecting patients for early aneurysm treatment.

International Practice Variability in Treatment of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

Prior research suggests substantial between-center differences in functional outcome following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). One hypothesis is that these differences are due to practice variability. To characterize practice variability, we sent a survey to 230 centers, of which 145 (63%) responded. Survey respondents indicated that an estimated 65% of ruptured aneurysms were treated endovascularly. Sixty-five percent of aneurysms were treated within 24 h of symptom onset, 18% within 24-48 h, and eight percent within 48-72 h. Centers in the United States (US) and Europe (EU) treat aneurysms more often endovascularly (72% and 70% vs. 51%, respectively, US vs. other p < 0.001, and EU vs. other p < 0.01) and more often within 24 h (77% and 64% vs. 46%, respectively, US vs. other p < 0.001, EU vs. other p < 0.01) compared to other centers. Most centers aim for euvolemia (96%) by administrating intravenous fluids to 0 (53%) or +500 mL/day (41%) net fluid balance. Induced hypertension is more often used in US centers (100%) than in EU (87%, p < 0.05) and other centers (81%, p < 0.05), and endovascular therapies for cerebral vasospasm are used more often in US centers than in other centers (91% and 60%, respectively, p < 0.05). We observed significant practice variability in aSAH treatment worldwide. Future comparative effectiveness research studies are needed to investigate how practice variation leads to differences in functional outcome.