Descriptive analysis on disproportionate medication errors and associated patient characteristics in the Food and Drug Administration's Adverse Event Reporting System.

BACKGROUND: Medication errors (MEs) are a major public health concern which can cause harm and financial burden within the healthcare system. Characterizing MEs is crucial to develop strategies to mitigate MEs in the future. OBJECTIVES: To characterize ME-associated reports, and investigate signals of disproportionate reporting (SDRs) on MEs in the Food and Drug Administration's Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS). METHODS: FAERS data from 2004 to 2020 was used. ME reports were identified with the narrow Standardised Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities® (MedDRA®) Query (SMQ) for MEs. Drug names were converted to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification. SDRs were investigated using the reporting odds ratio (ROR). RESULTS: In total 488 470 ME reports were identified, mostly (59%) submitted by consumers and mainly (55%) associated with females. Median age at time of ME was 57 years (interquartile range: 37-70 years). Approximately 1 out of 3 reports stated a serious health outcome. The most prevalent reported drug class was "antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents" (25%). The most common ME type was "incorrect dose administered" (9%). Of the 1659 SDRs obtained, adalimumab was the most common drug associated with MEs, noting a ROR of 1.22 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-1.24). CONCLUSION: This study offers a first of its kind characterization of MEs as reported to FAERS. Reported MEs are frequent and may be associated with serious health outcomes. This FAERS data provides insights on ME prevention and offers possibilities for additional in-depth analyses.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for acute appendicitis in children in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Recognising acute appendicitis in children presenting with acute abdominal pain in primary care is challenging. General practitioners (GPs) may benefit from a clinical prediction rule. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a clinical prediction rule for acute appendicitis in children presenting with acute abdominal pain in primary care. METHODS: In a historical cohort study data was retrieved from GP electronic health records included in the Integrated Primary Care Information database. We assigned children aged 4-18 years presenting with acute abdominal pain (≤ 7 days) to development (2010-2012) and validation (2013-2016) cohorts, using acute appendicitis within six weeks as the outcome. Multiple logistic regression was used to develop a prediction model based on predictors with > 50% data availability derived from existing rules for secondary care. We performed internal and external temporal validation and derived a point score to stratify risk of appendicitis into three groups, i.e. low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk. RESULTS: The development and validation cohorts included 2,041 and 3,650 children, of whom 95 (4.6%) and 195 (5.3%) had acute appendicitis. The model included male sex, pain duration (<24, 24-48, > 48 h), nausea/vomiting, elevated temperature (≥ 37.3 °C), abnormal bowel sounds, right lower quadrant tenderness, and peritoneal irritation. Internal and temporal validation showed good discrimination (C-statistics: 0.93 and 0.90, respectively) and excellent calibration. In the three groups, the risks of acute appendicitis were 0.5%, 7.5%, and 41%. CONCLUSION: Combined with further testing in the medium-risk group, the prediction rule could improve clinical decision making and outcomes.

Comorbidity in incident osteoarthritis cases and matched controls using electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidities are common in patients with osteoarthritis (OA). This study aimed to determine the association of a wide range of previously diagnosed comorbidities in adults with newly diagnosed OA compared with matched controls without OA. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted. The data were derived from an electronic health record database that contains the medical records of patients from general practices throughout the Netherlands. Incident OA cases were defined as patients with one or more diagnostic codes recorded in their medical records that correspond to knee, hip, or other/peripheral OA. Additionally, the first OA code had to be recorded between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2019. The date of cases' first OA diagnosis was defined as the index date. Cases were matched (by age, sex, and general practice) to up to 4 controls without a recorded OA diagnosis. Odds ratios were derived for each 58 comorbidities separately by dividing the comorbidity prevalence of cases by that of their matched controls at the index date. RESULTS: 80,099 incident OA patients were identified of whom 79,937 (99.8%) were successfully matched with 318,206 controls. OA cases had higher odds for 42 of the 58 studied comorbidities compared with matched controls. Musculoskeletal diseases and obesity showed large associations with incident OA. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the comorbidities under study had higher odds in patients with incident OA at the index date. While previously known associations were confirmed in this study, some associations were not described earlier.

eTRANSAFE: Building a sustainable framework to share reproducible drug safety knowledge with the public domain.

Integrative drug safety research in translational health informatics has rapidly evolved and included data that are drawn in from many resources, combining diverse data that are either reused from (curated) repositories, or newly generated at source. Each resource is mandated by different sets of metadata rules that are imposed on the incoming data. Combination of the data cannot be readily achieved without interference of data stewardship and the top-down policy guidelines that supervise and inform the process for data combination to aid meaningful interpretation and analysis of such data. The eTRANSAFE Consortium's effort to drive integrative drug safety research at a large scale hereby present the lessons learnt and the proposal of solution at the guidelines in practice at this Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) project. Recommendations in these guidelines were compiled from feedback received from key stakeholders in regulatory agencies, EFPIA companies, and academic partners. The research reproducibility guidelines presented in this study lay the foundation for a comprehensive data sharing and knowledge management plans accounting for research data management in the drug safety space - FAIR data sharing guidelines, and the model verification guidelines as generic deliverables that best practices that can be reused by other scientific community members at large. FAIR data sharing is a dynamic landscape that rapidly evolves with fast-paced technology advancements. The research reproducibility in drug safety guidelines introduced in this study provides a reusable framework that can be adopted by other research communities that aim to integrate public and private data in biomedical research space.

Added value of CRP to clinical features when assessing appendicitis in children.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP) for appendicitis in children has not been evaluated in primary care. As biochemical responses and differential diagnoses vary with age, separate evaluation in children and adults is needed. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether adding CRP to symptoms and signs improves the diagnosis of appendicitis in children with acute abdominal pain in primary care. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study in Dutch general practice. Data was collected from the Integrated Primary Care Information database between 2010 and 2016. We included children aged 4-18 years, with no history of appendicitis, presenting with acute abdominal pain, and having a CRP test. Initial CRP levels were related to the specialist's diagnosis of appendicitis, and the test's characteristics were calculated for multiple cut-offs. The value of adding CRP to signs and symptoms was analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified 1076 eligible children, among whom 203 were referred for specialist evaluation and 70 had appendicitis. The sensitivity and specificity of a CRP cut-off ≥10 mg/L were 0.87 (95%CI, 0.77-0.94) and 0.77 (95%CI, 0.74-0.79), respectively. When symptoms lasted > 48 h, this sensitivity increased to 1.00. Positive predictive values for CRP alone were low (0.18-0.38) for all cut-off values (6-100 mg/L). Adding CRP increased the area under the curve from 0.82 (95%CI, 0.78-0.87) to 0.88 (95%CI, 0.84-0.91), and decision curve analysis confirmed that its addition provided the highest net benefit. CONCLUSION: CRP adds value to history and physical examination when diagnosing appendicitis in children presenting acute abdominal pain in primary care. Appendicitis is least likely if the CRP value is < 10 mg/L and symptoms have been present for > 48 h.

Epidemiology of chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy in The Netherlands.

Chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP) is a rare but disabling disorder that often requires long-term immunomodulatory treatment. Background incidence rates and prevalence and risk factors for developing CIDP are still poorly defined. In the current study, we used a longitudinal population-based cohort study in The Netherlands to assess these rates and demographic factors and comorbidity associated with CIDP. We determined the incidence rate and prevalence of CIDP between 2008 and 2017 and the occurrence of potential risk factors in a retrospective Dutch cohort study using the Integrated Primary Care Information (IPCI) database. Cases were defined as CIDP if the diagnosis of CIDP was described in the electronic medical file. In a source population of 928 030 persons with a contributing follow-up of 3 525 686 person-years, we identified 65 patients diagnosed with CIDP. The overall incidence rate was 0.68 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 0.45-0.99). The overall prevalence was 7.00 per 100 000 individuals (95% CI 5.41-8.93). The overall incidence rate was higher in men compared to woman (IRR 3.00, 95% CI 1.27-7.11), and higher in elderly of 50 years or older compared with people <50 years of age (IRR 17 95% CI 4-73). Twenty percent of CIDP cases had DM and 9% a co-existing other auto-immune disease. These background rates are important to monitor changes in the frequency of CIDP following infectious disease outbreaks, identify potential risk factors, and to estimate the social and economic burden of CIDP.

Incidence and Prevalence of Knee Osteoarthritis Using Codified and Narrative Data From Electronic Health Records: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence and prevalence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) using codified and narrative data from general practices throughout The Netherlands. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Integrated Primary Care Information database. Patients with codified knee OA were selected, and an algorithm was developed to identify patients with narratively diagnosed knee OA only. Point prevalence proportions and incidence rates among people age ≥30 years were assessed from 2008 to 2019. The association of comorbidities with codified knee OA was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: The positive predicted value of narratively diagnosed knee OA only was 94.0% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 87.4-100%) and for codified knee OA 96.0% (95% CI 90.6-100%). Including narrative data in addition to codified data resulted in a prevalence 1.83-2.01 times higher (over the study years); prevalence increased from 5.8% to 11.8% between 2008 and 2019. The incidence rate was 1.93-2.28 times higher and increased from 9.98 per 1,000 person-years to 13.8 per 1,000 person-years between 2008 and 2019. Among patients with codified knee OA, 39.4% were previously diagnosed narratively with knee OA, on average ~3 years earlier. Comorbidities influenced the likelihood of being recorded with codified knee OA. CONCLUSION: Our study of a Dutch primary care database showed that current incidence and prevalence estimates based on codified data alone from electronic health records are underestimated. Narrative data can be incorporated in addition to codified data to identify knee OA patients more accurately.

The use and safety of corticosteroid injections for shoulder pain in general practice: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for shoulder pain in general practice recommend treatment with corticosteroid injections (CSI) if initial pain management fails. However, little is known about the actual use and safety of CSIs in treatment by general practitioners (GP). OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to gain insight into the use and safety of CSIs for patients with a new episode of shoulder pain in general practice. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a healthcare database containing the electronic medical records of approximately 200,000 patients in general practice. A search algorithm was constructed to identify patients with a new episode of shoulder pain between January 2012 and December 2017. Data on the use of CSIs in 2 random samples (n = 1,000) were manually validated for a 12-month period after the diagnosis. RESULTS: In total, 26% of the patients with a new episode of shoulder pain received a CSI. The patient's age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04) and a history of shoulder pain (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.13-2.12) were significantly associated with the administration of a CSI. Half of the patients received the CSI in the first consultation. The patient's age was positively associated with the likelihood of receiving the CSI in the first consultation (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.02). No serious adverse reactions were recorded by the GP. CONCLUSION: In contrast to the guidelines, CSIs were frequently administered in the first consultation. Older patients and patients with a history of shoulder pain were more likely to receive a CSI for shoulder pain.

Improving triage for children with comorbidity using the ED-PEWS: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the value of the Emergency Department-Pediatric Early Warning Score (ED-PEWS) for triage of children with comorbidity. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort. SETTING AND PATIENTS: 53 829 consecutive ED visits of children <16 years in three European hospitals (Netherlands, UK and Austria) participating in the TrIAGE (Triage Improvements Across General Emergency departments) project in different periods (2012-2015). INTERVENTION: ED-PEWS, a score consisting of age and six physiological parameters. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: A three-category reference standard as proxy for true patient urgency. We assessed discrimination and calibration of the ED-PEWS for children with comorbidity (complex and non-complex) and without comorbidity. In addition, we evaluated the value of adding the ED-PEWS to the routinely used Manchester Triage System (MTS). RESULTS: 5053 (9%) children had underlying non-complex morbidity and 5537 (10%) had complex comorbidity. The c-statistic for identification of high-urgency patients was 0.86 (95% prediction interval 0.84-0.88) for children without comorbidity, 0.87 (0.82-0.92) for non-complex and 0.86 (0.84-0.88) for complex comorbidity. For high and intermediate urgency, the c-statistic was 0.63 (0.62-0.63), 0.63 (0.61-0.65) and 0.63 (0.55-0.73) respectively. Sensitivity was slightly higher for children with comorbidity (0.73-0.75 vs 0.70) at the cost of a lower specificity (0.86-0.87 vs 0.92). Calibration was largely similar. Adding the ED-PEWS to the MTS for children with comorbidity improved performance, except in the setting with few high-urgency patients. CONCLUSIONS: The ED-PEWS has a similar performance in children with and without comorbidity. Adding the ED-PEWS to the MTS for children with comorbidity improves triage, except in the setting with few high-urgency patients.

Changes in the Diagnosis of Stroke and Cardiovascular Conditions in Primary Care During the First 2 COVID-19 Waves in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although there is evidence of disruption in acute cerebrovascular and cardiovascular care during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, its downstream effect in primary care is less clear. We investigated how the pandemic affected utilization of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular care in general practices (GPs) and determined changes in GP-recorded diagnoses of selected cerebrovascular and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: From electronic health records of 166,929 primary care patients aged 30 or over within the Rotterdam region, the Netherlands, we extracted the number of consultations related to cerebrovascular and cardiovascular care, and first diagnoses of selected cerebrovascular and cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, lipid disorders), conditions, and events (angina, atrial fibrillation, TIA, myocardial infarction, stroke). We quantified changes in those outcomes during the first COVID-19 wave (March-May 2020) and thereafter (June-December 2020) by comparing them to the same period in 2016-2019. We also estimated the number of potentially missed diagnoses for each outcome. RESULTS: The number of GP consultations related to cerebrovascular and cardiovascular care declined by 38% (0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.68) during the first wave, as compared to expected counts based on prepandemic levels. Substantial declines in the number of new diagnoses were observed for cerebrovascular events: 37% for TIA (0.63, 0.41-0.96) and 29% for stroke (0.71, 0.59-0.84), while no significant changes were observed for cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction [0.91, 0.74-1.14], angina [0.77, 0.48-1.25]). The counts across individual diagnoses recovered following June 2020, but the number of GP consultations related to cerebrovascular and cardiovascular care remained lower than expected throughout the June to December period (0.93, 0.88-0.98). DISCUSSION: While new diagnoses of acute cardiovascular events remained stable during the COVID-19 pandemic, diagnoses of cerebrovascular events declined substantially compared to prepandemic levels, possibly due to incorrect perception of risk by patients. These findings emphasize the need to improve symptom recognition of cerebrovascular events among the general public and to encourage urgent presentation despite any physical distancing measures.

Appendicitis in children with acute abdominal pain in primary care, a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: General practitioners (GPs) face a diagnostic challenge when assessing acute abdominal pain in children. However, no information is available on the current diagnostic process or the diagnostic accuracy of history and physical examination in primary care settings. OBJECTIVE: To describe the diagnostic process for acute abdominal pain among children in primary care, focusing on appendicitis, and to assess the diagnostic accuracy of individual clinical features. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study in Dutch primary care, using the Integrated Primary Care Information database. Children aged 4-18 years were included if they had no history of appendicitis and presented with acute abdominal pain during 2010-2016. We evaluated GP management and the diagnostic accuracy of clinical features for appendicitis. Pre- and post-test probabilities were calculated for each clinical feature and compared with the probability of appendicitis after GP assessment. RESULTS: Out of 5691 children, 944 (16.6%) were referred and 291 (5.1%) had appendicitis, of whom 55 (18.9%) were initially misdiagnosed. The pre-test probability (i.e. of appendicitis in evaluated children) varied from 3% (rigidity) to 28% (migratory pain). Concerning post-test probabilities, positive values for rebound pain (32.1%) and guarding (35.8%) and the negative value for right lower quadrant tenderness (0.6%) were superior to overall GP assessment (29.6% and 1.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: GP assessment will miss almost one-fifth of children with appendicitis at their first presentation, and about two-third of GP referrals will be negative. The presence of specific signs can increase or decrease the likelihood of appendicitis, emphasising the importance of a physical examination.

It can be difficult for general practitioners (GPs) to assess acute abdominal pain in children because they must decide whether it is a common minor problem or an uncommon serious problem. However, unlike their hospital counterparts, GPs must often rely on only the history and examination. We, therefore, wanted to gain a better understanding of how GPs assess abdominal pain and the accuracy of the different parts of their assessment. To do this, we looked back at clinical records for children who presented to a GP with acute abdominal pain between 2010 and 2016. The effect of examination on the probability of detecting appendicitis was calculated for several clinical features, and these were compared with the probability of appendicitis after a full GP assessment. Approximately 1 in 20 of the included children was diagnosed with appendicitis, one in five were initially misdiagnosed, and one in four were ultimately referred to the hospital. We show that some signs and symptoms were not particularly useful for assessment, but when they were, signs detected by the GP examining the patient were more useful than symptoms reported by patients or parents. We recommend that GPs provide safety netting advice and examine the abdomen.

A clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department: A prospective multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: To develop a clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study in five European EDs (the TRIAGE study), including consecutive children aged <16 years who were discharged following their initial ED visit ('index' visit), in 2012-2015. Standardised data on patient characteristics, Manchester Triage System urgency classification, vital signs, clinical interventions and procedures were collected. The outcome measure was serious illness defined as hospital admission or PICU admission or death in ED after an unplanned revisit within 7 days of the index visit. Prediction models were developed using multivariable logistic regression using characteristics of the index visit to predict the likelihood of a revisit with a serious illness. The clinical model included day and time of presentation, season, age, gender, presenting problem, triage urgency, and vital signs. An extended model added laboratory investigations, imaging, and intravenous medications. Cross validation between the five sites was performed, and discrimination and calibration were assessed using random effects models. A digital calculator was constructed for clinical implementation. 7,891 children out of 98,561 children had a revisit to the ED (8.0%), of whom 1,026 children (1.0%) returned to the ED with a serious illness. Rates of revisits with serious illness varied between the hospitals (range 0.7-2.2%). The clinical model had a summary Area under the operating curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.74) and summary calibration slope of 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-0.99). 4,433 children (5%) had a risk of > = 3%, which was useful for ruling in a revisit with serious illness, with positive likelihood ratio 4.41 (95% CI 3.87-5.01) and specificity 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.96). 37,546 (39%) had a risk <0.5%, which was useful for ruling out a revisit with serious illness (negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35), sensitivity 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.90)). The extended model had an improved summary AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) and summary calibration slope of 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.97). As study limitations, variables on ethnicity and social deprivation could not be included, and only return visits to the original hospital and not to those of surrounding hospitals were recorded. CONCLUSION: We developed a prediction model and a digital calculator which can aid physicians identifying those children at highest and lowest risks for developing a serious illness after initial discharge from the ED, allowing for more targeted safety netting advice and follow-up.

Shortness of breath in children at the emergency department: Variability in management in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to describe variability in resource use and hospitalization in children presenting with shortness of breath to different European Emergency Departments (EDs) and to explore possible explanations for variability. DESIGN: The TrIAGE project, a prospective observational study based on electronic health record data. PATIENTS AND SETTING: Consecutive paediatric emergency department visits for shortness of breath in five European hospitals in four countries (Austria, Netherlands, Portugal, United Kingdom) during a study period of 9-36 months (2012-2014). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed diversity between EDs regarding resource use (diagnostic tests, therapy) and hospital admission using multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusting for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: In total, 13,552 children were included. Of those, 7,379 were categorized as immediate/very urgent, ranging from 13-80% in the participating hospitals. Laboratory tests and X-rays were performed in 8-33% of the cases and 21-61% was treated with inhalation medication. Admission rates varied between 8-47% and PICU admission rates varied between 0.1-9%. Patient characteristics and markers of disease severity (age, sex, comorbidity, urgency, vital signs) could explain part of the observed variability in resource use and hospitalization. However, after adjusting for these characteristics, we still observed substantial variability between settings. CONCLUSION: European EDs differ substantially regarding the resource use and hospitalization in children with shortness of breath, even when adjusting for patient characteristics. Possible explanations for this variability might be unmeasured patient characteristics such as underlying disease, differences in guideline use and adherence or different local practice patterns.

The eTRANSAFE Project on Translational Safety Assessment through Integrative Knowledge Management: Achievements and Perspectives.

eTRANSAFE is a research project funded within the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI), which aims at developing integrated databases and computational tools (the eTRANSAFE ToxHub) that support the translational safety assessment of new drugs by using legacy data provided by the pharmaceutical companies that participate in the project. The project objectives include the development of databases containing preclinical and clinical data, computational systems for translational analysis including tools for data query, analysis and visualization, as well as computational models to explain and predict drug safety events.

The incidence and management of shoulder complaints in general practice: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Shoulder pain is the third most common musculoskeletal complaint in primary care. The international guidelines for general practitioners (GPs) recommend a stepwise treatment of shoulder pain. Little is known about the actual distribution of these treatments in current practice. OBJECTIVE: To gain insight in the incidence and current management of shoulder complaints in Dutch general practice. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a health care database containing the full electronic medical records of approximately 200 000 patients in Dutch general practice. A search algorithm was constructed to identify incident cases of shoulder complaints from January 2012 to December 2017. Data on the management of shoulder complaints were manually validated in a random sample of 1000 cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence of shoulder complaints was 30.3 (95% confidence interval 29.9-30.7) per 1000 person-years. More than half of the patients (58.6%) consulted their GP only once, 44.4% two times or more and 19.7% three times or more. For most patients (58.1%), the GP applied a wait-and-see policy or prescription of oral medication in the first consultation. However, no less than 42.9% of the patients were referred or received an injection already in the first consultation. CONCLUSIONS: There is a wide variety of treatments for shoulder complaints applied by the GP. Some patients are referred or received an injection already in the first consultation. The stepwise approach recommended by the guideline, might not always be applicable due to the diversity of patient- and shoulder characteristics presented in general practice.

Improving the prioritization of children at the emergency department: Updating the Manchester Triage System using vital signs.

BACKGROUND: Vital signs are used in emergency care settings in the first assessment of children to identify those that need immediate attention. We aimed to develop and validate vital sign based Manchester Triage System (MTS) discriminators to improve triage of children at the emergency department. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The TrIAGE project is a prospective observational study based on electronic health record data from five European EDs (Netherlands (n = 2), United Kingdom, Austria, and Portugal). In the current study, we included 117,438 consecutive children <16 years presenting to the ED during the study period (2012-2015). We derived new discriminators based on heart rate, respiratory rate, and/or capillary refill time for specific subgroups of MTS flowcharts. Moreover, we determined the optimal cut-off value for each vital sign. The main outcome measure was a previously developed 3-category reference standard (high, intermediate, low urgency) for the required urgency of care, based on mortality at the ED, immediate lifesaving interventions, disposition and resource use. We determined six new discriminators for children <1 year and ≥1 year: "Very abnormal respiratory rate", "Abnormal heart rate", and "Abnormal respiratory rate", with optimal cut-offs, and specific subgroups of flowcharts. Application of the modified MTS reclassified 744 patients (2.5%). Sensitivity increased from 0.66 (95%CI 0.60-0.72) to 0.71 (0.66-0.75) for high urgency patients and from 0.67 (0.54-0.76) to 0.70 (0.58-0.80) for high and intermediate urgency patients. Specificity decreased from 0.90 (0.86-0.93) to 0.89 (0.85-0.92) for high and 0.66 (0.52-0.78) to 0.63 (0.50-0.75) for high and intermediate urgency patients. These differences were statistically significant. Overall performance improved (R2 0.199 versus 0.204). CONCLUSIONS: Six new discriminators based on vital signs lead to a small but relevant increase in performance and should be implemented in the MTS.

Treatment pathway analysis of newly diagnosed dementia patients in four electronic health record databases in Europe.

PURPOSE: Real-world studies to describe the use of first, second and third line therapies for the management and symptomatic treatment of dementia are lacking. This retrospective cohort study describes the first-, second- and third-line therapies used for the management and symptomatic treatment of dementia, and in particular Alzheimer's Disease. METHODS: Medical records of patients with newly diagnosed dementia between 1997 and 2017 were collected using four databases from the UK, Denmark, Italy and the Netherlands. RESULTS: We identified 191,933 newly diagnosed dementia patients in the four databases between 1997 and 2017 with 39,836 (IPCI (NL): 3281, HSD (IT): 1601, AUH (DK): 4474, THIN (UK): 30,480) fulfilling the inclusion criteria, and of these, 21,131 had received a specific diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. The most common first line therapy initiated within a year (± 365 days) of diagnosis were Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors, namely rivastigmine in IPCI, donepezil in HSD and the THIN and the N-methyl-D-aspartate blocker memantine in AUH. CONCLUSION: We provide a real-world insight into the heterogeneous management and treatment pathways of newly diagnosed dementia patients and a subset of Alzheimer's Disease patients from across Europe.

Antidepressant and anticonvulsant prescription rates in patients with osteoarthritis: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: There are signs that antidepressants and anticonvulsants are being prescribed more often for OA patients, despite limited evidence. Our objectives were to examine prescription rates and time trends for antidepressants and anticonvulsants in OA patients, to assess the percentage of long-term prescriptions, and to determine patient characteristics associated with antidepressant or anticonvulsant prescription. METHODS: A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Integrated Primary Care Information database. First, episodic and prevalent prescription rates for antidepressants (amitriptyline, nortriptyline and duloxetine) and anticonvulsants (gabapentinoids) in OA patients were calculated for the period 2008-17. Logistic regression was used to assess which patient characteristics were associated with prescriptions. RESULTS: In total, 164 292 OA patients were included. The prescription rates of amitriptyline, gabapentin and pregabalin increased over time. The increase in prescription rates for pregabalin was most pronounced. Episodic prescription rate increased from 7.1 to 13.9 per 1000 person-years between 2008 and 2017. Amitriptyline was prescribed most (15.1 episodic prescriptions per 1000 person-years in 2017). Prescription rates of nortriptyline and duloxetine remained stable at 3.0 and 2.0 episodic prescriptions per 1000 person-years, respectively. For ≤3% of patients with incident OA, medication was prescribed long-term (≥3 months). In general, all medication was prescribed more frequently for older patients (except duloxetine), women, patients with OA in ≥2 joints, patients with spinal OA and patients with musculoskeletal disorders. CONCLUSION: Prescription rates of amitriptyline, gabapentin and pregabalin increased over time. Since there is little evidence to support prescription in OA, caution is necessary when prescribing.

Vascular and metabolic risk factor differences prior to dementia diagnosis: a multidatabase case-control study using European electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to compare body mass index (BMI), systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) and serum total cholesterol levels between dementia cases and controls at multiple time intervals prior to dementia onset, and to test time interval as a modifying factor for these associations. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: Six European electronic health records databases. PARTICIPANTS: 291 780 cases at the date of first-recorded dementia diagnosis, compared with 29 170 549 controls randomly selected from the same databases, age matched and sex matched at this index date. EXPOSURE: The following measures were extracted whenever recorded within each dataset: BMI (kg/m2), SBP and DBP (mm Hg) and serum total cholesterol (mmol/L). Levels for each of these variables were defined within six 2-year time intervals over the 12 years prior to the index date. MAIN OUTCOMES: Case-control differences in exposures of interest were modelled for each time period and adjusted for demographic and clinical factors (ischaemic/unspecified stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus, acute myocardial infarction, hypertension diagnosis, antihypertensive medication, cholesterol-lowering medication). Coefficients and interactions with time period were meta-analysed across the six databases. RESULTS: Mean BMI (coefficient -1.16 kg/m2; 95% CI -1.38 to 0.93) and SBP (-2.83 mm Hg; 95% CI -4.49 to -1.16) were lower in cases at diagnosis, and case-control differences were greater in more recent time periods, as indicated by significant case-x-time interaction and case-x-time-squared interaction terms. Time variations in coefficients for cholesterol levels were less consistent between databases and those for DBP were largely not significant. CONCLUSION: Routine clinical data show emerging divergence in levels of BMI and SBP prior to the diagnosis of dementia but less evidence for DBP or total cholesterol levels. These divergences should receive at least some consideration in routine dementia risk screening, although underlying mechanisms still require further investigation.