Incidence and Prediction of Unrelated Mortality After Successful Endoscopic Eradication Therapy for Barrett's Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Follow-up (FU) strategies after endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) for Barrett's neoplasia do not consider the risk of mortality from causes other than esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We aimed to evaluate this risk during long-term FU, and to assess whether the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) can predict mortality. METHODS: We included all patients with successful EET from the nationwide Barrett registry in the Netherlands. Data were merged with National Statistics for accurate mortality data. We evaluated annual mortality rates (AMRs, per 1000 person-years) and standardized mortality ratio for other-cause mortality. Performance of the CCI was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 1154 patients with a mean age of 64 years (±9). During median 59 months (p25-p75 37-91; total 6375 person-years), 154 patients (13%) died from other causes than EAC (AMR, 24.1; 95% CI, 20.5-28.2), most commonly non-EAC cancers (n = 58), cardiovascular (n = 31), or pulmonary diseases (n = 26). Four patients died from recurrent EAC (AMR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.1-1.4). Compared with the general Dutch population, mortality was significantly increased for patients in the lowest 3 age quartiles (ie, age <71 years). Validation of CCI in our population showed good discrimination (Concordance statistic, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.72-0.84) and fair calibration. CONCLUSION: The other-cause mortality risk after successful EET was more than 40 times higher (48; 95% CI, 15-99) than the risk of EAC-related mortality. Our findings reveal that younger post-EET patients exhibit a significantly reduced life expectancy when compared with the general population. Furthermore, they emphasize the strong predictive ability of CCI for long-term mortality after EET. This straightforward scoring system can inform decisions regarding personalized FU, including appropriate cessation timing. (NL7039).

Vertical tumor-positive resection margins and the risk of residual neoplasia after endoscopic resection of Barrett's neoplasia: a nationwide cohort with pathology reassessment.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the proportion of patients with residual neoplasia after endoscopic resection (ER) for Barrett's neoplasia with confirmed tumor-positive vertical resection margin (R1v). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients undergoing ER for Barrett's neoplasia with histologically documented R1v since 2008 in the Dutch Barrett Expert Centers. We defined R1v as cancer cells touching vertical resection margins and Rx as nonassessable margins. Reassessment of R1v specimens was performed by experienced pathologists until consensus was reached regarding vertical margins. RESULTS: 101/110 included patients had macroscopically complete resections (17 T1a, 84 T1b), and 99/101 (98%) ER specimens were histologically reassessed, with R1v confirmed in 74 patients (75%), Rx in 16%, and R0 in 9%. Presence/absence of residual neoplasia could be assessed in 66/74 patients during endoscopic reassessment (52) and/or in the surgical resection specimen (14), and 33/66 (50%) had residual neoplasia. Residual neoplasia detected during endoscopy was always endoscopically visible and biopsies from a normal-appearing ER scar did not detect additional neoplasia. Of 25 patients who underwent endoscopic follow-up (median 37 months [interquartile range 12-50]), 4 developed local recurrence (16.0%), all detected as visible abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: After ER with R1v, 50% of patients had no residual neoplasia. Histological evaluation of ER margins appears challenging, as in this study 75% of documented R1v cases were confirmed during reassessment. Endoscopic reassessment 8-12 weeks after ER seems to accurately detect residual neoplasia and can help to determine the most appropriate strategy for patients with R1v.

Clinical Relevance of Random Biopsies From the Esophagogastric Junction After Complete Eradication of Barrett's Esophagus is Low.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although random histological sampling from the esophagogastric junction (EGJ) after complete eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) is recommended, its clinical relevance is questionable. This study aimed to assess the incidence and long-term outcomes of findings from random EGJ biopsies in a nationwide cohort with long-term follow-up. METHODS: We included all patients with successful endoscopic eradication therapy (EET), defined as complete endoscopic eradication of all visible BE (CE-BE), for early BE neoplasia from the Dutch registry. Patients were treated and followed-up in 9 expert centers according to a joint protocol. Outcomes included the incidence of intestinal metaplasia (IM) at the EGJ (EGJ-IM) and the association between IM and visible (dysplastic) BE recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 1154 patients were included with a median follow-up of 43 months (interquartile range, 22-69 months). At the time of CE-BE, persisting EGJ-IM was found in 7% of patients (78/1154), which was reproduced during further follow-up in 46% of patients (42/78). No significant association existed between persisting EGJ-IM at CE-BE and recurrent non-dysplastic or dysplastic BE (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-2.13 and HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.17-3.06, respectively). Among patients with no EGJ-IM at the time of CE-BE (1043/1154; 90%), EGJ-IM recurred in 7% (72/1043) after a median of 21 months (interquartile range, 15-36 months), and was reproduced during further follow-up in 26% of patients (19/72). No association was found between recurrent EGJ-IM and non-dysplastic or dysplastic recurrence (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.67-2.06 and HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.04-1.96, respectively). CONCLUSION: Because EGJ-IM was not associated with a higher risk for recurrent disease, we recommend to consider abandoning random EGJ sampling after successful EET, under the condition that care is provided in expert centers, and the esophagus, including the EGJ, is carefully inspected (Netherlands Trial Register, NL7309).

Wide-area transepithelial sampling with computer-assisted analysis to detect high grade dysplasia and cancer in Barrett's esophagus: a multicenter randomized study.

BACKGROUND: Current surveillance for Barrett's esophagus (BE), consisting of four-quadrant random forceps biopsies (FBs), has an inherent risk of sampling error. Wide-area transepithelial sampling (WATS) may increase detection of high grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). In this multicenter randomized trial, we aimed to evaluate WATS as a substitute for FB. METHODS: Patients with known BE and a recent history of dysplasia, without visible lesions, at 17 hospitals were randomized to receive either WATS followed by FB or vice versa. All WATS samples were examined, with computer assistance, by at least two experienced pathologists at the CDx Diagnostics laboratory. Similarly, all FBs were examined by two expert pathologists. The primary end point was concordance/discordance for detection of HGD/EAC between the two techniques. RESULTS: 172 patients were included, of whom 21 had HGD/EAC detected by both modalities, 18 had HGD/EAC detected by WATS but missed by FB, and 12 were detected by FB but missed by WATS. The detection rate of HGD/EAC did not differ between WATS and FB (P = 0.36). Using WATS as an adjunct to FB significantly increased the detection of HGD/EAC vs. FB alone (absolute increase 10 % [95 %CI 6 % to 16 %]). Mean procedural times in minutes for FB alone, WATS alone, and the combination were 6.6 (95 %CI 5.9 to 7.1), 4.9 (95 %CI 4.1 to 5.4), and 11.2 (95 %CI 10.5 to 14.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although the combination of WATS and FB increases dysplasia detection in a population of BE patients enriched for dysplasia, we did not find a statistically significant difference between WATS and FB for the detection of HGD/EAC as single modality.

Disease burden in primary sclerosing cholangitis in the Netherlands: A long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive, cholestatic liver disease which greatly impacts the lives of individuals. Burden of disease due to shortened life expectancy and impaired quality of life is ill-described. The aim of this study was to assess long-term disease burden in a large population-based registry with regard to survival, clinical course, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), medical consumption and work productivity loss. METHODS: All PSC patients living in a geographically defined area covering ~50% of the Netherlands were included, together with patients from the three liver transplant centres. Survival was estimated by competing risk analysis. Proportional shortfall of QALYs during disease course was measured relative to a matched reference cohort using validated questionnaires. Work productivity loss and medical consumption were evaluated over time. RESULTS: A total of 1208 patients were included with a median follow-up of 11.2 year. Median liver transplant-free survival was 21.0 years. Proportional shortfall of QALYs increased to 48% >25 years after diagnosis. Patients had on average 12.4 hospital contact days among which 3.17 admission days per year, annual medical costs were €12 169 and mean work productivity loss was 25%. CONCLUSIONS: Our data quantify for the first time disease burden in terms of QALYs lost, clinical events, medical consumption, costs as well as work productivity loss, and show that all these are substantial and increase over time.

Dysplastic Recurrence After Successful Treatment for Early Barrett's Neoplasia: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The combination of endoscopic resection and radiofrequency ablation is the treatment of choice for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) with dysplasia and/or early cancer. Currently, there are no evidence-based recommendations on how to survey patients after successful treatment, and most patients undergo frequent follow-up endoscopies. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prediction model for visible dysplastic recurrence, which can be used to personalize surveillance after treatment. METHODS: We collected data from the Dutch Barrett Expert Center Registry, a nationwide registry that captures outcomes from all patients with BE undergoing endoscopic treatment in the Netherlands in a centralized care setting. We used predictors related to demographics, severity of reflux, histologic status at baseline, and treatment characteristics. We built a Fine and Gray survival model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization to predict the incidence of visible dysplastic recurrence after initial successful treatment. The model was validated externally in patients with BE treated in Switzerland and Belgium. RESULTS: A total of 1154 patients with complete BE eradication were included for model building. During a mean endoscopic follow-up of 4 years, 38 patients developed recurrent disease (1.0%/person-year). The following characteristics were independently associated with recurrence (strongest to weakest predictor): a new visible lesion during treatment phase, higher number of endoscopic resection treatments, male sex, increasing BE length, high-grade dysplasia or cancer at baseline, and younger age. External validation showed a C-statistic of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.94) with good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first externally validated model to predict visible dysplastic recurrence after successful endoscopic eradication treatment of BE with dysplasia or early cancer. On external validation, our model has good discrimination and calibration. This model can help clinicians and patients to determine a personalized follow-up strategy.

Development and External Validation of a Model to Predict Complex Treatment After Radiofrequency Ablation for Barrett's Esophagus With Early Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Endoscopic eradication therapy for Barrett's esophagus (BE)-related neoplasia is safe and leads to complete eradication in the majority of patients. However, a subgroup will experience a more complex treatment course with a risk for failure or disease progression. Early identification of these patients may improve patient counseling and treatment outcomes. We aimed to develop a prognostic model for a complex treatment course. METHODS: We collected data from a nationwide registry that captures outcomes for all patients undergoing endoscopic eradication therapy for early BE neoplasia. A complex treatment course was defined as neoplastic progression, treatment failure, or the need for endoscopic resection during the radiofrequency ablation treatment phase. We developed a prognostic model using logistic regression. We externally validated our model in an independent registry. RESULTS: A total of 1386 patients were included, of whom 78 (6%) had a complex treatment course. Our model identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer with a visible lesion containing high-grade dysplasia/cancer, and patients with less than 50% squamous conversion after radiofrequency ablation were identified as high risk for a complex treatment. This applied to 8% of the study population and included 93% of all treatment failures and 76% of all patients with advanced neoplastic progression. The model appeared robust in multiple sensitivity analyses and performed well in external validation (area under the curve, 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a prognostic model that identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer and high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma and those with poor squamous regeneration as high risk for a complex treatment course. The good performance in external validation suggests that it may be used in clinical management (Netherlands Trial Register: NL7039).

Analysis of metastases rates during follow-up after endoscopic resection of early "high-risk" esophageal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: After endoscopic resection (ER) of early esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), the optimal management of patients with high-risk histologic features for lymph node metastases (ie, submucosal invasion, poor differentiation grade, or lymphovascular invasion) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate outcomes of endoscopic follow-up after ER for high-risk EAC. METHODS: For this retrospective cohort study, data were collected from all Dutch patients managed with endoscopic follow-up (endoscopy, EUS) after ER for high-risk EAC between 2008 and 2019. We distinguished 3 groups: intramucosal cancers with high-risk features, submucosal cancers with low-risk features, and submucosal cancers with high-risk features. The primary outcome was the annual risk for metastases during follow-up, stratified for baseline histology. RESULTS: One hundred twenty patients met the selection criteria. Median follow-up was 29 months (interquartile range, 15-48). Metastases were observed in 5 of 25 (annual risk, 6.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-15) high-risk intramucosal cancers, 1 of 55 (annual risk, .7%; 95% CI, 0-4.0) low-risk submucosal cancers, and 3 of 40 (annual risk, 3.0%; 95% CI, 0-7.0) high-risk submucosal cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas the annual metastasis rate for high-risk submucosal EAC (3.0%) was somewhat lower than expected in comparison with previous reported percentages, the annual metastasis rate of 6.9% for high-risk intramucosal EAC is new and worrisome. This calls for further prospective studies and suggests that strict follow-up of this small subgroup is warranted until prospective data are available.

Impact of expert center endoscopic assessment of confirmed low grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus diagnosed in community hospitals.

BACKGROUND : The optimal management for patients with low grade dysplasia (LGD) in Barrett's esophagus (BE) is unclear. According to the Dutch national guideline, all patients with LGD with histological confirmation of the diagnosis by an expert pathologist (i. e. "confirmed LGD"), are referred for a dedicated re-staging endoscopy at an expert center. We aimed to assess the diagnostic value of re-staging endoscopy by an expert endoscopist for patients with confirmed LGD. METHODS : This retrospective cohort study included all patients with flat BE diagnosed in a community hospital who had confirmed LGD and were referred to one of the nine Barrett Expert Centers (BECs) in the Netherlands. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with prevalent high grade dysplasia (HGD) or cancer during re-staging in a BEC. RESULTS : Of the 248 patients with confirmed LGD, re-staging in the BEC revealed HGD or cancer in 23 % (57/248). In 79 % (45/57), HGD or cancer in a newly detected visible lesion was diagnosed. Of the remaining patients, re-staging in the BEC showed a second diagnosis of confirmed LGD in 68 % (168/248), while the remaining 9 % (23/248) had nondysplastic BE. CONCLUSION : One quarter of patients with apparent flat BE with confirmed LGD diagnosed in a community hospital had prevalent HGD or cancer after re-staging at an expert center. This endorses the advice to refer patients with confirmed LGD, including in the absence of visible lesions, to an expert center for re-staging endoscopy.

Novel cryoballoon 180° ablation system for treatment of Barrett's esophagus-related neoplasia: a first-in-human study.

BACKGROUND: The novel 180° cryoballoon (CbAS180) enables semicircumferential treatment over a length of 3 cm per application. This first-in-human study evaluates its feasibility, efficacy, and safety for the treatment of Barrett's esophagus (BE) neoplasia. METHODS: This multicenter study consisted of dose-finding and extension phases. Dose-finding started with the lowest dose possible (1.0 mm/s). For each dose, six patients were treated circumferentially over a 3-cm length. The dose was increased until the median BE regression was ≥ 60 % without serious adverse events (SAEs). In the extension phase, the dose was confirmed in 19 new patients. The outcomes were technical success, BE regression after one treatment, and SAEs. RESULTS: 25 patients (median Prague C0M3) were included (6 dose-finding/19 extension). In two patients, the CbAS180 could not be applied because of unstable balloon positioning. The technical success rate was 96 % (22 /23). In the six dose-finding patients, the starting dose resulted in median BE regression of 94 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 60 %-97 %) without SAEs and was thus considered effective. Overall median BE regression was 80 % (95 %CI 60 %-90 %). CONCLUSION: Single-session CbAS180 seems feasible, safe, and effective, and is a promising technique for the treatment of patients with BE neoplasia.

Extending treatment criteria for Barrett's neoplasia: results of a nationwide cohort of 138 endoscopic submucosal dissection procedures.

BACKGROUND: The use of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is gradually expanding for treatment of neoplasia in Barrett's esophagus (BE). We aimed to report outcomes of all ESDs for BE neoplasia performed in the Netherlands. METHODS: Retrospective assessment of outcomes, using treatment and follow-up data from a joint database. RESULTS: 130/138 patients had complete ESDs, with 126/130 (97 %) en bloc resections. Median (interquartile range (IQR)) procedure time was 121 minutes (90-180). Pathology findings were high grade dysplasia (HGD) (5 %) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) T1a (43 %) or T1b (52 %; 19 % sm1, 33 % ≥ sm2). Among resections of HGD or T1a EAC lesions, 87 % (95 %CI 75 %-92 %) were both en bloc and R0; the corresponding value for T1b EAC lesions was 49 % (36 %-60 %). Among R1 resections, 10/34 (29 %) showed residual cancer, all detected at first endoscopic follow-up. The remaining 24 patients (71 %) showed no residual neoplasia. Six of these patients underwent surgery with no residual tumor; the remaining 18 underwent endoscopic follow-up during median 31 months with 1 local recurrence (annual recurrence rate 2 %). Among R0 resections, annual local recurrence rate during median 27 months was 0.5 %. CONCLUSION: In expert hands, ESD allows safe removal of bulky intraluminal neoplasia and submucosal cancer. ESD of the latter showed R1 resection margins in 50 %, yet only one third had persisting neoplasia at follow-up. To better stratify R1 patients with an indication for additional surgery, repeat endoscopy after healing of the ESD might be a helpful possible prognostic factor for residual cancer.

Incidence and outcomes of poor healing and poor squamous regeneration after radiofrequency ablation therapy for early Barrett's neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic eradication therapy with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is effective in most patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, some patients experience poor healing and/or poor squamous regeneration. We evaluated incidence and treatment outcomes of poor healing and poor squamous regeneration. METHODS: We included all patients treated with RFA for early BE neoplasia from a nationwide Dutch registry based on a joint treatment protocol. Poor healing (active inflammatory changes or visible ulcerations ≥ 3 months post-RFA), poor squamous regeneration (< 50 % squamous regeneration), and treatment success (complete eradication of BE [CE-BE]) were evaluated. RESULTS: 1386 patients (median BE C2M5) underwent RFA with baseline low grade dysplasia (27 %), high grade dysplasia (30 %), or early cancer (43 %). In 134 patients with poor healing (10 %), additional time and acid suppression resulted in complete esophageal healing, and 67/134 (50 %) had normal squamous regeneration with 97 % CE-BE. Overall, 74 patients had poor squamous regeneration (5 %). Compared with patients with normal regeneration, patients with poor squamous regeneration had a higher risk for treatment failure (64 % vs. 2 %, relative risk [RR] 27 [95 % confidence interval [CI] 18-40]) and progression to advanced disease (15 % vs. < 1 %, RR 30 [95 %CI 12-81]). Higher body mass index, longer BE segment, reflux esophagitis, and < 50 % squamous regeneration after baseline endoscopic resection were independently associated with poor squamous regeneration in multivariable logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: In half of the patients with poor healing, additional time and acid suppression led to normal squamous regeneration and excellent treatment outcomes. In patients with poor squamous regeneration, however, the risk for treatment failure and progression to advanced disease was significantly increased.

Extension of early esophageal squamous cell neoplasia into ducts and submucosal glands and the role of endoscopic ablation therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early esophageal squamous cell neoplasia (ESCN) is preferably treated with en-bloc endoscopic resection. Ablation might be an alternative for flat ESCN, but ESCN extension along the epithelial lining of ducts and submucosal glands (SMGs) might jeopardize ablation efficacy. Clinical studies suggest that local recurrence might arise from such buried ESCN niches after ablation. We studied human endoscopic resection specimens of ESCN to quantify ESCN extension into ducts/SMGs and performed a prospective porcine study to evaluate the depth of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and CryoBalloon ablation (CBA) into ducts/SMGs. METHODS: Endoscopic submucosal dissection specimens of flat-type ESCN from a Japanese (n = 65) and Dutch cohort (n = 14) were evaluated for presence and neoplastic involvement of ducts/SMGs. Twenty-seven pigs were treated with circumferential RFA (c-RFA; n = 4), focal CBA (n = 20), and focal RFA (n = 3) with 4, 60, and 9 treatment areas, respectively. After prespecified survival periods (0 hours, 8 hours, 2 days, 5 days, and 28 days), treatment areas were evaluated for uniformity and depth of ablation and affected SMGs. RESULTS: Neoplastic extension in ducts/SMGs was observed in most lesions: 58% (38/65) in the Japanese and 64% (9/14) in the Dutch cohort. In the animal study, 33% of SMGs (95% confidence interval, 28-50) were not affected after c-RFA, although the overlying epithelium was ablated. Focal RFA and CBA resulted in uniform ablations with effective treatment of all SMGs. CONCLUSIONS: ESCN extends into ducts/SMGs in most patients. In an animal model, focal RFA and CBA effectively ablated SMGs, whereas c-RFA inadequately ablated SMGs. Given this potential reason for recurrence, endoscopic resection should remain the standard of care.

Radiofrequency vapor ablation for Barrett's esophagus: feasibility, safety and proof of concept in a stepwise study with in vitro, animal, and the first in-human application.

INTRODUCTION: The Radiofrequency Vapor Ablation (RFVA) System (AquaMedical, Inc., Santa Ana, CA) is a novel ablation system for eradication of Barrett's esophagus, that generates vapor at 100 °C using an RF electrode located in the catheter tip. We performed in-vitro dosimetry studies and the first in-human feasibility study. METHODS: The system includes an RFVA generator with syringe pump and a through-the-scope-catheter. The RFVA system was tested in-vitro (lean-beef and porcine study) and ablation depth was compared to focal RFA. Two doses were selected for further in-vivo testing in dysplatic BE patients. Repeat endoscopy with histology was performed after 8 weeks to assess squamous conversion. RESULTS: In porcine, RFVA 3-seconds was comparable to RFA, whereas RFVA 5-seconds produced slightly deeper ablation. We selected a conservative 1-second and 3-seconds for human study. Fifty-three ablations were successfully applied in 15 patients with no adverse events. Follow-up endoscopy showed a median squamous conversion of 55 % (IQR 33 - 74) and 98 % (56 - 99) for 1 and 3-seconds, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this 3-phase study with lean-beef, porcine and the first in-human application, the RFVA system was feasible for esophageal ablation and successfully and safely converted targeted BE areas into squamous epithelium.

Aneuploidy in targeted endoscopic biopsies outperforms other tissue biomarkers in the prediction of histologic progression of Barrett's oesophagus: A multi-centre prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The cancer risk in Barrett's oesophagus (BO) is difficult to estimate. Histologic dysplasia has strong predictive power, but can be missed by random biopsies. Other clinical parameters have limited utility for risk stratification. We aimed to assess whether a molecular biomarker panel on targeted biopsies can predict neoplastic progression of BO. METHODS: 203 patients with BO were tested at index endoscopy for 9 biomarkers (p53 and cyclin A expression; aneuploidy and tetraploidy; CDKN2A (p16), RUNX3 and HPP1 hypermethylation; 9p and 17p loss of heterozygosity) on autofluorescence-targeted biopsies and followed-up prospectively. Data comparing progressors to non-progressors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses using survival curves, Cox-proportional hazards and logistic regression models. FINDINGS: 127 patients without high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) at index endoscopy were included, of which 42 had evidence of any histologic progression over time. Aneuploidy was the only predictor of progression from non-dysplastic BO (NDBO) to any grade of neoplasia (p = 0.013) and HGD/OAC (p = 0.002). Aberrant p53 expression correlated with risk of short-term progression within 12 months, with an odds ratio of 6.0 (95% CI: 3.1-11.2). A panel comprising aneuploidy and p53 had an area under the receiving operator characteristics curve of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.59-0.77) for prediction of any progression. INTERPRETATION: Aneuploidy is the only biomarker that predicts neoplastic progression of NDBO. Aberrant p53 expression suggests prevalent dysplasia, which might have been missed by random biopsies, and warrants early follow up.