Comparison of early renal function parameters for the prediction of 5-year graft survival after kidney transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Early graft function (EGF) has an enduring effect on the subsequent course after kidney transplantation. This study compares quantitative parameters of EGF for the prediction of graft survival. METHODS: We involved 300 consecutive transplant recipients from deceased donors from 1989 to 2005. Urine output during 24 h post-transplant (UO), and serum creatinine after 1 week (Cr7) were taken for explanatory variables. We generated Kaplan-Meier (K-M) estimates of graft survival, by quintiles of the explanatory variable. Cox regression was applied to control for various recipient factors. RESULTS: K-M survival estimates indicate a threshold effect of UO and Cr7, which can dissect the risk of graft failure. The thresholds referring to the 2nd quintile correspond to a UO >630 ml and a Cr7 <2.5 mg/dl and were associated with a proportional hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% CI 0.33-0.84) and 0.34 (95% CI 0.18-0.65), respectively. Combining both of the parameters predicted a 5-year graft survival probability >90%, according to a hazard ratio of 0.21 (95% CI 0.09-0.46). Requirement of dialysis post-transplant lost its discriminatory power and was not a significant explanatory variable in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Routine parameters for monitoring of EGF display a threshold effect allowing accurate prediction of 5-year graft survival at the earliest point in time. The quantitative threshold levels for an optimum discriminatory power require validation in a larger, preferably multicentre database.

Open randomized trial comparing early withdrawal of either cyclosporine or mycophenolate mofetil in stable renal transplant recipients initially treated with a triple drug regimen.

Cyclosporine (CsA) is the current primary immunosuppressant for the prevention of renal allograft rejection. Its chronic use is associated with various adverse effects like hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and nephrotoxicity, which in turn may contribute to chronic allograft nephropathy and cardiovascular mortality. This study compares a CsA-free maintenance regimen of mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and corticosteroids with CsA and corticosteroids after early conversion from triple drug therapy. Eighty-four renal transplant recipients who had stable graft function on triple drug therapy with MMF, CsA, and steroids were randomly assigned to be withdrawn from either CsA (n = 44) or MMF (n = 40) at 3 mo posttransplantation. Kidney function at 1 yr was the primary endpoint. Secondary parameters of efficacy were patient and graft survival, incidence of acute rejection episodes, BP, and lipids. At study entry, the alternative treatment groups were similar with respect to demographics, renal function, dosage of CsA, BP, and concomitant medication. Both the creatinine clearance (71.7 versus 60.9 ml/min) and calculated GFR (73.2 versus 61.9 ml/min) were significantly better in MMF-treated patients at 1 yr. Conversion to MMF was associated with a decline of systolic and diastolic BP (128/76 versus 139/82 mmHg) and with a more favorable lipid profile. There was no difference in patient survival (100%) and graft survival (97.7% versus 100%). Acute rejection episodes occurred more frequently after withdrawal of CsA (11.3% versus 5.0%), but the difference was NS. Early tapering of CsA can safely be accomplished in renal transplant recipients who are stable on a triple drug regimen with MMF, thereby resulting in improved renal function, a more favorable lipid profile, and beneficial effects on posttransplant hypertension.