Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.

Background: This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027. Methods: Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years. Results: Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027. Conclusions: Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

Global, regional, and national burden of intracerebral hemorrhage and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2021: results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) results from the rupture of blood vessels causing bleeding within the brain and is one of the major causes of death and long-term disability globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite having a lower incidence than ischemic stroke, ICH imposes a greater social and economic burden. To our knowledge, since the release of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report, there has been no comprehensive update on the epidemiology and trends of ICH. This study aims to analyze the impact of gender, age, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) on the burden of ICH at global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: Data on the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ICH and its related risk factors from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 project, encompassing 203 countries and regions. Furthermore, temporal trends of the global intracerebral hemorrhage burden were assessed through Joinpoint analysis. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 3.444 million new cases of ICH worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 40.8 per 100,000 people, representing a 31.4% decrease compared to 1990. In 2021, ICH caused 3.308 million deaths, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 39.1 per 100,000 people, a reduction of 36.6% since 1990. Globally, ICH accounted for 79.457 million DALYs, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 92.4 per 100,000 people, representing a 39.1% decrease since 1990. Regionally, Central Asia, Oceania, and Southeast Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates of ICH, whereas Australasia, high-income North America, and Western Europe had the lowest rates. Nationally, the Solomon Islands, Mongolia, and Kiribati had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates, whereas Switzerland, New Zealand, and Australia had the lowest. Hypertension, smoking, and environmental pollution were identified as the primary risk factors for ICH. This study also validated the significant association between SDI and the burden of ICH, with the age-standardized DALY rate of ICH decreasing significantly as SDI increased. CONCLUSION: Despite the decreasing burden of intracerebral hemorrhage, it remains a significant public health issue in countries with a lower SDI. Prevention strategies should prioritize hypertension management, air quality improvement, and smoking control to further mitigate the impact of intracerebral hemorrhage.

Analysis of mortality in Parkinson disease in China: Exploration of recent and future trends.

Objectives: Parkinson disease (PD) is the third leading cause of mortality among middle-aged and older individuals in China. This study aimed to explore the trends and distribution features of PD mortality in China from 2013 to 2021 and make predictions for the next few decades. Methods: Relevant data were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Disease Surveillance Point system. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate trends. The R software was used to predict future trends. Results: Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of PD increased from 0.59 per 100,000 individuals to 1.22 per 100,000 individuals from 2013 to 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 9.50 (95% CI: 8.24-10.78). The all-age ASMR of PD were higher in male individuals than in female individuals, and ASMR increased with age. The number of deaths and ASMR increased gradually from west to east and from rural to urban areas. Furthermore, ASMR is expected to increase to 2.66 per 100,000 individuals by 2040. Conclusions: The heightened focus on the ASMR of PD among male individuals, urban areas, eastern China, and individuals aged ≥85 years has become a key determinant in further decreasing mortality, thereby exhibiting novel challenges to effective strategies for disease prevention and control.

Global burden of osteoarthritis: Prevalence and temporal trends from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and temporal trends for hip, knee, hand, and other osteoarthritis (OA) at a global, continental, and national level. DESIGN: The estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for case number and ASPR of OA were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to examine the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, the global ASPR of hip, knee, hand, and other OA was 400.95 (95% UI: 312.77-499.41), 4375.95 (95% UI: 3793.04-5004.9), 1726.38 (95% UI: 1319.91-2254.85), and 745.62 (95% UI: 570.16-939.8). As for the ASPR of hip OA, hand OA, and other OA, Europe and America had higher rates than Asia and Africa, and Asia was second only to America in knee OA ASPRs. The period 1990-2019, the ASPR at global level dropped significantly for hand OA (AAPC = -0.4%, 95% CI: -0.47 to -0.34) and increased significantly for hip OA (AAPC = 0.43%, 95% CI: 0.39-0.46), knee OA (AAPC = 0.17%, 95% CI: 0.09-0.24) and other OA (AAPC = 0.16%, 95% CI: 0.15-0.17). Different continents, countries, and periods demonstrated significant changes. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, America has the highest OA burden and Asia has a higher knee OA burden. Appropriate prevention and control measures to reduce modifiable risk factors are needed to reduce the burden of OA.

Trends in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma, 2001-2020.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate trends in polypharmacy prevalence among adults with asthma in the United States. METHODS: Data from the 2001-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to estimate the weighted prevalence of polypharmacy. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate trends in polypharmacy. Trends were first evaluated overall and then stratified by asthma severity and asthma control. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with polypharmacy. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2020, a stable trend in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma was observed (average annual percent change [AAPC]=1.02, p=0.71). Trends across different asthma severity were stable (mild asthma: AAPC=2.93, p=0.20; moderate asthma: AAPC=-2.22, p=0.35; severe asthma: AAPC=0.45, p=0.82). Trends in adults with good asthma control and those with poor control stayed constant (good control: AAPC=0.82, p=0.68; poor control: AAPC=-1.22, p=0.82). Several factors, including older age, females, Non-Hispanic Black, health insurance coverage, family income, number of healthcare visits, former smokers, multi-morbidities, asthma severity, and asthma control, were associated with polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy prevalence has remained constant among U.S. adults with asthma over the past two decades. Despite a stable overall trend, disparities in polypharmacy prevalence persist across different asthma severity and control status, underscoring the need for tailored medication management to improve asthma care.

Trends in transport injuries burden and risk factors among children under 14 years old in China: 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Transport injuries (TI) remains one of leading causes of death in children in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and associated risk factors of TI among children aged 0-14 years in China, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We retrieved data of disease burden and risk factors of TI among children aged 0-14 year in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset. We estimated incidence rate, death rate, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate with a 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI), stratified by age, sex, and all type-road users. Trends in disease burden with annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were performed by Joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The incidence rate (AAPC = 1.18%, P < 0.001) of TI among children aged 0-14 years showed an increasing trend, whereas mortality rate (AAPC = -3.87%, P < 0.001) and DALYs rate (AAPC = -3.83%, P < 0.001) decreased annually. Notably, boys experienced a higher increase in incidence (1.30%) compared to girls (1.06%), but a faster decrease in mortality and DALYs rate (-3.90% vs. -3.82%, -3.88% vs. -3.79%, respectively) (Pall < 0.001). Declines in death rates and DALYs rates were observed across all age groups (Pall < 0.001), while remained the highest among children aged 0-4 in 2019. Among different road-type users, cyclist road injuries were identified as the primary cause of TI (182.3 cases per 100,000) while pedestrians were the group with the highest mortality (2.9 cases per 100,000) and DALYs rate (243 cases per 100,000) in 2019. Besides, alcohol use was a significant risk factors for TI, while low temperature appeared to be a protective factor. CONCLUSION: Future efforts must prioritize raising awareness among children and their guardians to mitigate the disease burden of TI in children. It's critical to enhance preventive interventions for boys, children aged 0-4 and vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists in future.

Phase-Based and Lifetime Health System Costs of Care for Patients Diagnosed with Leukemia and Lymphoma: A Population-Based Descriptive Study.

Hematologic cancers, notably leukemias and lymphomas, pose significant challenges to healthcare systems globally, due to rising incidence rates and increasing costs. This study aimed to estimate the phase and lifetime health system total costs (not net costs) of care for patients diagnosed with leukemia and lymphoma in Ontario, Canada. We conducted a population-based study of patients diagnosed between 2005 and 2019, using data from the Ontario Cancer Registry linked with health administrative databases. Costs were estimated using a phase-based approach and stratified by care phase and cancer subtype. Acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) patients had the highest mean monthly initial (CAD 19,519) and terminal (CAD 41,901) costs among all cancer subtypes, while acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients had the highest mean monthly cost (CAD 7185) during the continuing phase. Overall lifetime costs were highest for ALL patients (CAD 778,795), followed by AML patients (CAD 478,516). Comparatively, patients diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma (CAD 268,184) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (CAD 321,834) had lower lifetime costs. Major cost drivers included inpatient care, emergency department visits, same-day surgeries, ambulatory services, and specialized cancer drugs. Since 2005, the cost structure has evolved with rising proportions of interventional drug costs. Additionally, costs were higher among males and younger age groups. Understanding these costs can help guide initiatives to control healthcare spending and improve cancer care quality.

National trends and disparities in herpes zoster vaccination among US older adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 2008 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a risk factor for herpes zoster. Vaccination can prevent or attenuate herpes zoster and its related complications. However, evidence regarding vaccine uptake among patients with COPD is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate trends in herpes zoster vaccination and characteristics associated with vaccination among US older adults with COPD. METHODS: Data from the 2008 to 2022 National Health Interview Survey were used. Participants aged ≥50 years were included. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to analyze trends in herpes zoster vaccination. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with vaccination. RESULTS: From 2008 to 2022, an increasing trend in herpes zoster vaccination was observed (average annual percent change = 15.10, P < .01). This increasing trend was also observed when stratified by age groups. Disparities in vaccination were found across several factors, including age, sex, race or ethnicity, region, educational level, health insurance, income, smoking status, perceived health status, and flu and pneumococcal vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: There has been an upward trend in herpes zoster vaccination over the past 15 years among older adults with COPD. Disparities across several characteristics existed, underscoring the necessity for targeted policies and interventions to promote equity in vaccination.

Gender and Age Trends in HIV Incidence in Turkey between 1990 and 2021: Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analyses.

Background and Objectives: Despite a global decrease in HIV incidence, recent trends in Türkiye indicate a concerning rise, particularly among younger populations and women. This study investigates the local and regional dynamics influencing these trends using advanced epidemiological methodologies. Material and Methods: Utilizing Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression, we analysed HIV incidence and prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease study for Türkiye. These methods allowed for a detailed examination of changes over time, identifying specific age groups and periods with significant shifts in incidence rates. Results: Key findings include a 13.03% increase in annual percentage change among males aged 15-19 and an 11.37% increase among females in the same age group. Additionally, the incidence rates among females have shown a significant rise after 2008. Conclusions: The rising HIV incidence in Türkiye reflects complex socio-economic, cultural, and biological factors, with significant increases among young people and women. Addressing these challenges requires targeted interventions, comprehensive educational programs, and inclusive healthcare services to align with global efforts and commitments. The study underscores the importance of incorporating young people in decision-making processes to effectively combat HIV in Türkiye.

Temporal trends in prevalence of liver cancer and etiology-specific liver cancer from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Liver cancer (LC) remains a major cause of cancer death worldwide. Grasping prevalence trends is key to informing strategies for control and prevention. We analyzed the global, regional and national trends in LC prevalence and its major causes from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We obtained LC age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 and assessed trends using Joinpoint regression. LC cases were categorized into those due to hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), alcohol use, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other causes. RESULTS: While the ASPR of LC has shown a global decrease, there are specific regions where an increase in ASPR has been observed, with the highest rates in America. HBV remained the leading cause of LC (41.45 %) but significant increases occurred for HCV, alcohol use and NASH. Prevalence correlated with socioeconomic development. High-income countries had higher LC rates from HCV and alcohol but lower HBV-related LC. In high-income nations, LC prevalence climbs; the converse holds in middle- and low-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a global ASPR decrease, LC due to HCV, NASH, and alcohol is rising. Prevention strategies must prioritize HBV vaccination, HCV treatment, and alcohol regulation. IMPACT: The study informs targeted LC control policies and emphasizes the importance of continued monitoring and regional cooperation to combat LC.

Managing the Historic Burden of Kernicterus Mortality in India.

Prevention of neonatal bilirubin injury exemplifies success of systems approach to avert adverse neonatal and childhood outcomes that rely on strategies including prenatal identification of Rhesus sensitization, universal maternal blood typing, risk assessment for neonatal extreme hyperbilirubinemia (EHB), unfettered access to safe, effective phototherapy, and application of patient safety principles. India's diverse landscape suggests varied real-time experiences of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia and consequent infant mortality rates (IMR). Utilizing Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, the authors examined national and subnational trends, infant mortality timing, and the disease burden from hemolytic and perinatal jaundice over 30 y (1999 to 2019). They also assessed the correlation of EHB-IMR with socio-demographic index and health expenditure per capita, estimating economic losses from EHB-related infant mortality to guide policy decisions at national and state domains. From 1990 to 2019, India delivered 811,078,415 livebirths of which, 1,189,856 infant deaths were due to EHB. EHB-related deaths decreased from 57,773 in 1990 to 19,664 in 2019, a 60% reduction vs. 40% in overall IMR. Early (0-6 d), late (7-27 d), and post-neonatal (28-364 d) deaths accounted for 61%, 34%, and 5% of mortality, respectively. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar contributed to 38% of all EHB deaths. Economic analysis estimate losses between US $7.2 and 11.7 billion for the year 2019 secondary to EHB-related mortality. The present analysis reveals consistent declines across all states to reach current EHB-IMR of 0.8 per 1,000 live-births in India by 2019. Significant economic impact of lost human productivity highlight ongoing need for targeted life-saving public health strategies.

National age-specific mortality trends for cervical and breast cancers in urban-rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cervical and breast cancers are among the top 4 leading causes of cancer-related mortality in women. This study aimed to examine age-specific temporal trends in mortality for cervical and breast cancers in urban and rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021. METHODS: Age-specific mortality data for cervical and breast cancers among Chinese women aged 20-84 years were obtained from China's National Disease Surveillance Points system spanning the years 2009 to 2021. Negative binomial regression models were utilized to assess urban-rural differences in mortality rate ratios, while Joinpoint models with estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC) and slopes were employed to compare temporal trends and the acceleration of mortality rates within different age groups. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2021, there was a relative increase in age-specific mortality associated with the two cancers observed in rural areas compared with urban areas. A rising trend in the screening age of 35-64 [AAPC: 4.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5-7.6%, P = 0.026] for cervical cancer was noted in rural areas, while a stable trend (AAPC: - 0.7%, 95% CI - 5.8 to 4.6%, P = 0.78) was observed in urban areas. As for breast cancer, a stable trend (AAPC: 0.3%, 95% CI - 0.3 to 0.9%, P = 0.28) was observed in rural areas compared to a decreasing trend (AAPC: - 2.7%, 95% CI - 4.6 to - 0.7%, P = 0.007) in urban areas. Urban-rural differences in mortality rates increased over time for cervical cancer but decreased for breast cancer. Mortality trends for both cervical and breast cancers showed an increase with age across 4 segments, with the most significant surge in mortality observed among the 35-54 age group across urban and rural areas, periods, and regions in China. CONCLUSIONS: Special attention should be given to women aged 35-54 years due to mortality trends and rural-urban disparities. Focusing on vulnerable age groups and addressing rural-urban differences in the delivery of cancer control programs can enhance resource efficiency and promote health equity.

Trend of alcohol use disorder as a percentage of all-cause mortality in North America.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trend of alcohol use disorder (AUD) mortality as a percentage of all-cause mortality in Canada and the United States (US) between 2000 and 2019, by age group. RESULTS: Joinpoint regression showed that AUD mortality as a percentage of all-cause mortality significantly increased between 2000 and 2019 in both countries, and across all age groups (i.e., young adults (20-34 years), middle-aged adults (35-49 years), and older adults (50 + years)). The trend has been levelling off, and even reversing in some cases, in recent years. The average annual percentage change differed across countries and between age groups, with a greater increase among Canadian adults aged 35-49 years and among adults aged 50 + years in the US. Over the past two decades, AUD mortality as a percentage of all-cause mortality has been increasing among all adults in both Canada and the US.

Identification of regional and sex differences in asthma mortality trends in Spanish Autonomous Communities (1980-2022).

OBJECTIVE: Despite global declines in asthma mortality, regional variations and sex disparities persist. This study investigates asthma mortality trends in Spanish Autonomous Communities (ACs) from 1980 to 2022, analyzing data by sex. METHODS: Data on asthma deaths and population were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics for the study period. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated, and joinpoint regression models were applied to identify trends. RESULTS: Overall, 44,728 asthma deaths occurred, with a steeper decline observed in men (-3.5% per year) compared to women (-0.7% per year). The female-to-male mortality ratio climbed from 0.7 in 1980 to 5.4 in 2016. Both sexes exhibited a significant decrease in ASMRs, with a more substantial decline in males (-6.3%).While all ACs showed a significant decrease in male ASMRs, female trends varied, with significant decreases in 13 ACs and stable trends elsewhere. Joinpoint analysis revealed diverse regional patterns for both sexes, with some ACs experiencing steady declines and others exhibiting periods of slower decline or even stabilization. CONCLUSION: This study identified concerning regional and sex disparities in Spanish ACs' asthma mortality (1980-2022). While male rates declined significantly across all regions, female rates showed variation, with even increases in some ACs. Targeted interventions addressing these disparities and their underlying causes (healthcare access, management practices, etc.) are crucial.

Viral hepatitis in China during 2002-2021: epidemiology and influence factors through a country-level modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Viral hepatitis imposes a heavy disease burden worldwide and is also one of the most serious public health problems in China. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis in China and to investigate the influencing factors. METHODS: We first used the JoinPoint model to analyze the percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of hepatitis in Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2021. We then explored the influencing factors by using the time-series global principal component analysis (GPCA) and the panel fixed-effects model. RESULTS: The disease burden varied across different provinces from 2002 to 2021. The AAPC of the total HAV incidence decreased by 10.39% (95% CI: [-12.70%, -8.02%]) from 2002 to 2021. Yet the AAPC of HBV, HCV, and HEV increased by 1.50% (95% CI: [0.23%, 2.79%]), 13.99% (95% CI: [11.28%, 16.77%]), and 7.10% (95% CI: [0.90%, 13.69%]), respectively. The hotspots of HAV, HBV, HCV, and HEV moved from the west to the center, from the northwest to the southeast, from the northeast to the whole country, and from the northeast to the southeast, respectively. Different types of viral hepatitis infections were associated with hygiene, pollutant, and meteorological factors. Their roles in spatial-temporal incidence were expressed by panel regression functions. CONCLUSIONS: Viral hepatitis infection in China showed spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Interventions should be tailored to its epidemiological characteristics and determinants of viral hepatitis.

Updated information concerning trends in suicide rates in elderly in China, 2002-2020.

The aim of this study was to investigate trends in suicide rates (SRs) among the elderly in China. Annual data on SRs among Chinese people ≥ the age of 65 were collected from China's Health Statistics Yearbook from 2002 to 2020. Then, data were stratified by age, region, and sex. Standardized SRs were calculated and analyzed using a conventional joinpoint regression model. Results revealed that overall, SRs among the elderly in China tended to decline from 2002-2020. Fluctuations in SRs, including in 2004-2005 due to the SARS epidemic, in 2009-2010 due to the economic crisis, and in 2019-2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, were also observed. Data suggested a relatively greater crude SR among the elderly (vs. young people), in males (vs. females), and in people living in a rural area (vs. those living in an urban area). SRs tended to rise with age. Joinpoint regression analysis identified joinpoints only for males ages 65-69 and over the age of 85 living in a rural area, suggesting that individuals in these groups are more sensitive to negative stimuli and more likely to commit suicide, necessitating closer attention. The findings from this study should help to make policy and devise measures against suicide in the future.

Age-period-cohort analysis of epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2046.

Background: This study explored the epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture (PF) in China from 1992 to 2021, analyze their relationships with age-period-cohort (APC) factors, and predict the trends of PF from 2022 to 2046. Methods: Incidence and years lived with disabilities (YLDs) of PF among sexes in China from 1992 to 2021 were obtained through the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Trends in the incidence and YLDs were described, and a joinpoint regression model was used. The APC model was used to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and YLDs. Nordpred forecasted the incidence and YLDs in China from 2022 to 2046. Results: In 2021, there were an estimated 0.63 million incidence cases and 0.33 million of YLDs, respectively. The number and age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence and YLDs were both gradually increased. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence and YLDs for men were 0.26% and -0.17%, respectively. For women, the AAPC values for incidence and YLDs were -0.03% and -0.57% (p < 0. 001), respectively. The relative risk (RR) of PF increases with age, with the lowest risk in those aged 10-14 years for incidence and aged 1-4 for YLDs and the highest risk in those aged >95 years for incidence and aged 90-94 years for YLDs. The period effect showed a totally increase in the risk across the general, male, and female populations. Cohort effects indicated a totally significant decline for both incidence and YLDs. The predicted incidence and YLDs of PF in China from 2022 to 2046 showed an initial rise, followed by a decline, with 2029 and 2034 being the turning point for incidence and YLDs, respectively. Conclusion: The characteristics of pelvic fracture incidence and YLDs in China are complex. Thus, primary prevention measures must be strengthened. Raising awareness about osteoporosis prevention, enhancing public health education, and promoting good dietary and hygiene habits are appropriate preventive measures for PF in China.

Temporal evolution of suicide by levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or over between 2009 and 2022.

PURPOSE: Previous studies have reported that levels of rurality and deprivation are factors associated with suicide risk. Reports on the association between rurality, deprivation and suicide incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic are scarce. The study aims to investigate how suicide rates evolved in areas with different levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older between 2009 and 2022. METHODS: This study used population density in 2020 as an indicator of rurality and per capita prefectural income in 2019 as a proxy for deprivation in Japan's 47 prefectures. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to analyze secular trends in suicide rates by rurality and deprivation. RESULTS: Suicide rates for both men and women at different levels of rurality and deprivation remained roughly parallel during the research period. Suicide rates for men and women at all levels of rurality and deprivation were on a downward trend until around 2019, just before the onset of the pandemic. Following this, suicide rates in women showed a clear upward trend, while the trend in suicide rates for men also changed around 2019, with a slightly increasing or flat trend thereafter. Changes in suicide rates were greater among women and those aged 20-59 years. CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, time trends in suicide rates for both men and women have changed before and after the pandemic, but levels of rurality and deprivation across the 47 prefectures do not appear to have contributed much to these changes.

Global, regional, and national burden of thalassemia during 1990-2019: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Thalassemia represents a significant public health challenge globally. However, the global burden of thalassemia and the disparities associated with it remain poorly understood. Our study aims to uncover the long-term spatial and temporal trends in thalassemia at global, regional, and national levels, analyze the impacts of age, time periods, and birth cohorts, and pinpoint the global disparities in thalassemia burden. METHODS: We extracted data on the thalassemia burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We employed a joinpoint regression model to assess temporal trends in thalassemia burden and an age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on thalassemia mortality. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the number of thalassemia incident cases, prevalent cases, mortality cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) decreased by 20.9%, 3.1%, 38.6%, and 43.1%, respectively. Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY declined across regions with high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI), yet remained the highest in regions with low SDI and low-middle SDI as well as in Southeast Asia, peaking among children under five years of age. The global prevalence rate was higher in males than in females. The global mortality rate showed a consistent decrease with increasing age. CONCLUSION: The global burden of thalassemia has significantly declined, yet notable disparities exist in terms of gender, age groups, periods, birth cohorts, SDI regions, and GBD regions. Systemic interventions that include early screening, genetic counseling, premarital health examinations, and prenatal diagnosis should be prioritized in regions with low, and low-middle SDI, particularly in Southeast Asia. Future population-based studies should focus specifically on thalassemia subtypes and transfusion requirements, and national registries should enhance data capture through newborn screening.

Trend Analysis of Suicide and Homicide Mortality and Years of Life Lost (YLL) in Children Aged 10-19 Years in the South of Iran, 2004-2019.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to suicide and homicide in children aged 10-19 years in southern Iran from 2004 to 2019. Study Design: A cross-sectional study. METHODS: The data on all deaths due to suicide and homicide in Fars province were obtained from the population-based electronic death registration system (EDRS). Crude mortality rate and YLL were calculated. The joinpoint regression method was used to examine the trend. RESULTS: During the study period, 563 cases of suicide and 218 cases of homicide in children aged 10-19 have occurred. The total number of YLL due to suicide was 9766 in men and 6261 in women. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the trend of YLL due to suicide was increasing in males. In other words, the annual percent change (APC) was 4.8% (95% CI 0.4 to 9.5, P=0.036). Additionally, there was a constant trend in females, and APC was 2.7% (95% CI -2.0 to 7.7, P=0.241). The number of YLL due to homicide was 4890 in males and 1294 in females. The trend of YLL due to homicide was stable in males and females. In other words, APC was -1.6% (95% CI -5.6 to -2.6, P=0.422) in males and -2.7% (95% CI -10.0 to 5.2, P=0.467) in females. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings of this study, the trend of mortality rate and YLL due to suicide in men has been increasing and it has been stable in women. Moreover, the trend of mortality due to homicide was stable for both males and females. Therefore, it is necessary to take preventive actions.