The pattern of tumor progression on first-line immune checkpoint inhibitor-based systemic therapy for Chinese advanced hepatocellular carcinoma -CLEAP 004 study.

Background: For decades, stratification criteria for first-line clinical studies have been highly uniform. However, there is no principle or consensus for restratification after systemic treatment progression based on immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The aim of this study was to assess the patterns of disease progression in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not eligible for surgical intervention, following the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors. Methods: This is a retrospective study that involved patients with inoperable China liver stage (CNLC) IIIa and/or IIIb. The patients were treated at eight centers across China between January 2017 and October 2022. All patients received at least two cycles of first-line treatment containing immune checkpoint inhibitors. The patterns of disease progression were assessed using RECIST criteria 1.1. Different progression modes have been identified based on the characteristics of imaging progress. The study's main outcome measures were post-progression survival (PPS) and overall survival (OS). Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method to compare the difference among the four groups. Subgroup analysis was conducted to compare the efficacy of different immunotherapy combinations. Variations in the efficacy of immunotherapy have also been noted across patient groups exhibiting alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels equal to or exceeding 400ng/mL, in contrast to those with AFP levels below 400ng/mL. Results: The study has identified four distinct patterns of progress, namely p-IIb, p-IIIa, p-IIIb, and p-IIIc. Diverse patterns of progress demonstrate notable variations in both PPS and OS. The group p-IIb had the longest PPS of 12.7m (95% 9.3-16.1) and OS 19.6m (95% 15.6-23.5), the remaining groups exhibited p-IIIb at PPS 10.5 months (95%CI: 7.9-13.1) and OS 19.2 months (95%CI 15.1-23.3). Similarly, p-IIIc at PPS 5.7 months (95%CI: 4.2-7.2) and OS 11.0 months (95%CI 9.0-12.9), while p-IIIa at PPS 3.4 months (95%CI: 2.7-4.1) and OS 8.2 months (95%CI 6.8-9.5) were also seen. Additional stratified analysis was conducted and showed there were no differences of immunotherapy alone or in combination in OS (HR= 0.92, 95%CI: 0.59-1.43, P=0.68) and PPS (HR= 0.88, 95%CI: 0.57-1.36, P=0.54); there was no significant difference in PPS (HR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.55-1.12, P=0.15) and OS (HR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.61-1.24, P=0.39) for patients with AFP levels at or over 400ng/mL. However, it was observed that patients with AFP levels above 400ng/mL experienced a shorter median progression of PPS (8.0 months vs. 5.0 months) after undergoing immunotherapy. Conclusion: In this investigation of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma among Chinese patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors, we identified four distinct progression patterns (p-IIb, p-IIIa, p-IIIb and p-IIIc) that showed significant differences in PPS and OS. These findings demonstrate the heterogeneity of disease progression and prognosis after immunotherapy failure. Further validation in large cohorts is necessary to develop prognostic models that integrate distinct progression patterns to guide subsequent treatment decisions. Additionally, post-immunotherapy progression in patients with AFP levels ≥400ng/mL indicates a shortened median PPS. These findings provide valuable insights for future personalized treatment decisions.

Heterogeneity of Radiological Progression Patterns and Association with Outcomes in Patients with Metastatic Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: With an increasing number of clinical trials using radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) instead of overall survival as the primary study endpoint, the heterogeneity of different radiological progression patterns in rPFS and postprogression survival (PPS) remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: Herein, we investigate the proportion of various radiological progression patterns in patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) and metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), and further explore the differences in rPFS and PPS between patients exhibiting single- or multicategory progression patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This post hoc, retrospective secondary analysis was based on individual patient data from LATITUDE (phase 3 randomized mHSPC study) and COU-AA-302 (phase 3 randomized mCRPC study). Patients with complete imaging follow-up data and radiological progression were included in the analysis. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The rPFS and PPS in LATITUDE and COU-AA-302 were evaluated. The proportion of patients exhibiting each progression pattern was calculated, and a survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of the 489 mHSPC patients studied, 366 experienced single-category progression, while the remaining 123 patients (25.2%) exhibited simultaneous occurrence of different progressive events (multicategory radiological progression). Of the 534 mCRPC patients studied, 390 experienced single-category progression, while the remaining 144 patients (27.0%) experienced multicategory progressive events. Among mCRPC patients, the rPFS of bone progression was the shortest. In contrast, among mHSPC patients, the rPFS of target lesion enlargement is the shortest, followed by bone progression. Notably, patients experiencing a single-category progression pattern displayed comparable rPFS to but significantly longer PPS than those experiencing multicategory progression patterns (PPS mHSPC cohort: 21.5 vs 6.9 mo, p < 0.0001; mCRPC cohort: 23.6 vs 15.7 mo, p < 0.0001). The study is limited by its hypothesis-generating nature. Therefore, the observed phenomena in our research necessitate validation through future prospective studies. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who experience multicategory radiological progression represent a significant proportion, accounting for approximately 25% of all men with mHSPC or mCRPC. Patients with multicategory radiological progression patterns had similar rPFS to but significantly shorter PPS than those experiencing single-category progression patterns. In future clinical trials and clinical practice, radiological progression patterns should be recognized as a crucial determinant of prognosis, while also serving as the stratification or inclusion criteria for second-line treatment clinical trials. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this study, we observed that among men with metastatic prostate cancer, those who experienced two or more radiological events during a single visit had a worse prognosis than those who experienced isolated radiological events.

Correlation of multiple endpoints in the first-line chemotherapy of advanced gastric cancer: Pooled analysis of individual patient data from Japanese Phase III trials.

BACKGROUND: Individual-level surrogates are important for management in patients treated for advanced gastric cancer (AGC). This study aimed to comprehensively investigate the correlation of multiple clinical endpoints in the first-line chemotherapy of AGC. METHODS: Individual patient data (IPD) were collected from four Japanese Phase III trials comparing S-1-based first-line chemotherapies (SPIRITS, START, GC0301/TOP-002, and G-SOX trials). Patients without Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based radiological assessments were excluded. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was tested for correlation among overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and postprogression survival (PPS). OS, PFS, and PPS were compared between responders (best response: complete response or partial response) and nonresponders (best response: stable disease or progressive disease). RESULTS: The study included a total of 1492 patients. Eighty percent of the patients (n = 1190) received subsequent chemotherapies after the failure of each trial's treatment protocol. PFS moderately correlated with OS (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.66, p < 0.005), whereas the correlation between PPS and OS was strong (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.87, p < 0.005). Responders had significantly longer OS (median, 17.7 vs. 9.1 months, p < 0.005), PFS (median, 6.9 vs. 2.8 months, p < 0.005), and PPS (median, 10.5 vs. 6.0 months, p < 0.005) than nonresponders. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reacknowledged the mild surrogacy of PFS and importance of postprogression treatments in patients with AGC receiving first-line chemotherapy. Consistent longer survival outcomes in better RECIST categories suggested that tumor response might be a useful individual-level surrogate.

A novel clinical prognostic index for patients with advanced gastric cancer: possible contribution to the continuum of care.

BACKGROUND: The Japan Clinical Oncology Group (JCOG) prognostic index, consisting of performance status, primary tumor resected, number of metastases, and serum alkaline phosphatase, has been one of the robust prognostic indices for patients with advanced gastric cancer on the basis of which clinical trials have stratified prognosis. Only a few studies, however, have utilized the JCOG prognostic index in daily practice. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study on patients with advanced gastric cancer who received first-line platinum-containing chemotherapy at a single institute between 2011 and 2017. Prognostic factors were evaluated using a Cox proportional regression model. RESULTS: A total of 608 patients were enrolled. Multivariate analysis showed that performance status ≥1, presence or absence of primary tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥4, and diffuse-type histology were significantly associated with worse prognosis, whereas the number of metastases was not. Although the original prognostic index could not adequately stratify patients into three risk groups, the modified index (good: 0 and 1, moderate: 2 and 3, poor: 4-6), which was established by incorporating diffuse-type histology and high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, demonstrated excellent stratification. The median overall survival of the good (n = 315), moderate (n = 243), and poor (n = 54) risk groups was 20.5, 13.5, and 10.2 months, respectively. Hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.69 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.40-2.04; good versus moderate] and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.11-2.08; moderate versus poor). This novel index also demonstrated a statistically significant stratification of survival after progression following first-line chemotherapy (good versus moderate: HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.16-1.70; moderate versus poor: HR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.45-2.74). CONCLUSIONS: The modified JCOG prognostic index showed excellent stratification of overall survival in real-world patients, which could also help determine the need for treatment changes throughout the continuum of chemotherapy.

Post-progression survival is strongly linked to overall survival in refractory small-cell lung cancer patients who received amrubicin.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of second-line chemotherapy on the overall survival (OS) of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients might be confounded by subsequent therapies. In this study, we aimed to determine the influence of progression-free survival (PFS) and postprogression survival (PPS) on OS after second-line chemotherapy in patients with refractory SCLC treated with amrubicin monotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the data of 35 patients with refractory SCLC who were treated with amrubicin monotherapy as second-line chemotherapy between July 2005 and December 2015. The correlations of PFS and PPS with OS were statistically analyzed at the individual level using Spearman's rank correlation and linear regression analyses. RESULTS: The correlation between PPS and OS was strong (r = 0.88, P < 0.05, R2 = 0.87), while that between PFS and OS was weak (r = 0.60, P < 0.05, R2 = 0.15). The number of regimens administered after disease progression postsecond-line chemotherapy was significantly associated with PPS (P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: OS is more strongly linked to PPS than to PFS in refractory SCLC patients who undergo amrubicin monotherapy as a second-line treatment. These results suggest that treatments administered after second-line chemotherapy affect the OS of refractory SCLC patients treated with amrubicin monotherapy.

Efficacy and Limitations of Lenvatinib Therapy for Radioiodine-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: Real-World Experiences.

Background: The ultimate clinical goal of advanced cancer treatment is improvement of survival. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) were recently approved for radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid carcinoma (RR-DTC) that is resistant to conventional therapies since they have significant potential to improve survival in patients who previously had no more treatment strategies available. However, eligible patients are limited in clinical practice, making it difficult to accurately determine the efficacy of TKIs. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the efficacy of lenvatinib at a single institution, enrolling 42 RR-DTC patients. Results: The best overall response was partial remission in 26 (62%) patients, stable disease in 10 (24%) patients, and progressive disease (PD) in 6 (14%) patients. The results indicated three-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival rates of 51.0% and 32.4%, respectively. Twenty-three (55%) patients had backgrounds that did not match the inclusion criteria of the Study of (E7080) Lenvatinib in Differentiated Cancer of the Thyroid (SELECT) trial. Furthermore, PD-experienced patients individually decided whether to continue lenvatinib, and 17 (41%) made the decision themselves; these patients had a three-year OS of 43.0% and postprogression survival (PPS) of 13.3 [95% confidence interval 6.1-not reached] months. Conclusions: Our real-world investigation revealed that patients have wide-ranging background characteristics, and the decision regarding continuation of therapy after PD is based on the patient's general condition. Our management protocol resulted in good PPS. Furthermore, our results indicated equivalent efficacy of lenvatinib as in the SELECT trial. In conclusion, lenvatinib proved effective for RR-DTC patients in a real-world setting.

Targeting slug-mediated non-canonical activation of c-Met to overcome chemo-resistance in metastatic ovarian cancer cells.

Metastasis-associated drug resistance accounts for high mortality in ovarian cancer and remains to be a major barrier for effective treatment. In this study, SKOV3/T4, a metastatic subpopulation of ovarian cancer SKOV3 cells, was enriched to explore potential interventions against metastatic-associated drug resistance. Quantitative genomic and functional analyses were performed and found that slug was significantly increased in the SKOV3/T4 subpopulation and contributed to the high resistance of SKOV3/T4. Further studies showed that slug activated c-Met in a ligand-independent manner due to elevated levels of fibronectin and provoked integrin α V function, which was confirmed by the significant correlation of slug and p-Met levels in 121 ovarian cancer patient samples. Intriguingly, c-Met inhibitor(s) exhibited greatly enhanced anti-cancer effects in slug-positive ovarian cancer models both in vitro and in vivo. Additionally, IHC analyses revealed that slug levels were highly correlated with reduced survival of ovarian cancer patients. Taken together, this study not only uncovers the critical roles of slug in drug resistance in ovarian cancer but also highlights a promising therapeutic strategy by targeting the noncanonical activation of c-Met in slug-positive ovarian cancer patients with poor prognosis.

CHALLENGES AND METHODOLOGIES IN USING PROGRESSION FREE SURVIVAL AS A SURROGATE FOR OVERALL SURVIVAL IN ONCOLOGY.

OBJECTIVES: A primary outcome in oncology trials is overall survival (OS). However, to estimate OS accurately requires a sufficient number of patients to have died, which may take a long time. If an alternative end point is sufficiently highly correlated with OS, it can be used as a surrogate. Progression-free survival (PFS) is the surrogate most often used in oncology, but does not always satisfy the correlation conditions for surrogacy. We analyze the methodologies used when extrapolating from PFS to OS. METHODS: Davis et al. previously reviewed the use of surrogate end points in oncology, using papers published between 2001 and 2011. We extend this, reviewing papers published between 2012 and 2016. We also examine the reporting of statistical methods to assess the strength of surrogacy. RESULTS: The findings from 2012 to 2016 do not differ substantially from those of 2001 to 2011: the same factors are shown to affect the relationship between PFS and OS. The proportion of papers reporting individual patient data (IPD), strongly recommended for full assessment of surrogacy, remains low: 33 percent. A wide range of methods has been used to determine the appropriateness of surrogates. While usually adhering to reporting standards, the standard of scholarship appears sometimes to be questionable and the reporting of results often haphazard. CONCLUSIONS: Standards of analysis and reporting PFS to OS surrogate studies should be improved by increasing the rigor of statistical reporting and by agreeing to a minimum set of reporting guidelines. Moreover, the use of IPD to assess surrogacy should increase.

Prognostic Factors Associated with Postprogression Survival in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib Not Eligible for Second-Line Regorafenib Treatment.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors associated with postprogression survival (PPS) in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with sorafenib, who were not eligible for second-line treatment with regorafenib. METHODS: A total of 103 patients with radiological confirmation of progressive disease (PD) were enrolled. RESULTS: The median PPS (n = 67) was 6.1 months. Significant and independent prognostic factors at initial radiological PD associated with good PPS were an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS) score of 0, the absence of macrovascular invasion (MVI), and time to progression (TTP) ≥4 months. Upon scoring these three variables as good PPS factors, the median PPS in the good PPS score of 3 or 2 group (n = 38) was significantly longer than that in the good PPS score of 1 or 0 group (n = 29) (16.6 vs. 2.9 months; p < 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: An ECOG-PS score of 0, the absence of MVI, and TTP ≥4 months at first radiological confirmation of PD may be useful for predicting good PPS in patients with advanced HCC who do not meet the eligibility criteria for the RESORCE trial.

Postprogression survival in patients with glioblastoma treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy: a routine care cohort study.

Glioblastoma is the commonest malignant brain tumor in adults. Most patients develop progressive disease before they die. However, survival after developing progressive disease is infrequently reported. We identified patients with histologically proven disease who were treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy during 2006-2013. We analyzed overall survival (OS), progression-free survival and postprogression survival (PPS) in relation to age, O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation and extent of surgical resection. We identified 166 patients. Median survival was 13.5 months; 2-year OS was 21.7%. Median progression-free survival and PPS were 7.03 and 4.53 months, respectively. Age and extent of surgical resection were correlated with OS. Only the extent of surgical resection was associated with PPS. Our work suggests that the established prognostic factors for glioblastoma do not appear to help predict PPS.

Positive relationship between subsequent chemotherapy and overall survival in pancreatic cancer: meta-analysis of postprogression survival for first-line chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: To gain a better understanding of the impact of postprogression survival (PPS) and post-trial anticancer therapy on overall survival (OS) in first-line pancreatic cancer patients. METHODS: A literature search identified 54 randomized trials, focusing on gemcitabine monotherapy to eliminate effects of heterogeneity of first-line regimens. We evaluated the relation between OS and either progression-free survival (PFS) or PPS. We also examined whether any association might be affected by the year of completion of trial enrollment. RESULTS: For all 54 trials, PPS was strongly associated with OS (r = 0.844), whereas PFS was moderately associated with OS (r = 0.623). Average OS and PPS were significantly longer in recent trials than in older trials, (7.29 versus 6.15 months, p < 0.001) and (3.64 versus 2.86 months, p < 0.001), respectively. The correlation between OS and PPS in recent trials was much stronger than that in older trials (r = 0.846 versus 0.729). The relation between OS and PFS in recent and older trials did not differ (r = 0.595 versus 0.563). The percentage of patients with post-trial treatment was significantly higher in recent trials than in older trials (52.7 versus 39.7%, p < 0.001). The rate of post-trial anticancer therapy was significantly associated with OS (r = 0.910). CONCLUSIONS: We found an increase in median PPS in accordance with an increase in median OS in recent trials compared with older trials and that rate of post-trial anticancer therapy was strongly associated with median OS. It is important that researchers be aware of these findings in designing clinical trials of first-line chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer patients.

Progression-Free Survival, Response Rate, and Disease Control Rate as Predictors of Overall Survival in Phase III Randomized Controlled Trials Evaluating the First-Line Chemotherapy for Advanced, Locally Advanced, and Recurrent Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Recent improvements in chemotherapy agents have prolonged postprogression survival of non-small cell lung cancer. Thus, primary outcomes other than overall survival (OS) have been frequently used for recent phase III trials to obtain quick results. However, no systematic review had assessed whether progression-free survival (PFS), response rate (RR), and disease control rate (DCR) can serve as surrogates for OS at the trial level in the phase III first-line chemotherapy setting. METHODS: We included phase III randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing two arms that were reported as a full article regardless of their primary end point. We included only RCTs that evaluated chemonaive patients with advanced, locally advanced, or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and were published after January 1, 2005. We systematically searched four public electronic databases. Two investigators independently screened and scrutinized candidate articles. How surrogate outcomes represented hazard ratios (HRs) for OS was examined. RESULTS: Among 1907 articles, we ultimately found 44 eligible articles covering 22,709 subjects. HR for PFS, median PFS in the experimental arm minus median PFS in the control arm in months, OR for RR (ORrr), and OR for DCR were evaluated in 34, 35, 44, and 35 RCTs, respectively. HR for OS (HRos), median PFS in the experimental arm minus median PFS in the control arm, ORrr, and OR for DCR had weighted Spearman's rank correlation coefficients with an HRos of 0.496, 0.477, 0.570, and 0.470, respectively; the standardized weighted regression coefficients were 0.439, -0.376, -0.605, and -0.381, respectively; and the adjusted weighted coefficients of determination were 0.224, 0.161, 0.350, and 0.176, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ORrr, followed by HRpfs, had the strongest association with HRos at the trial level. However, these measures were not strong enough to replace OS.

Surrogate end points and postprogression survival in renal cell carcinoma: an analysis of first-line trials with targeted therapies.

Our end point was to determine the correlations between progression-free survival (PFS), postprogression survival (PPS), response rate (RR), and disease control rate (DCR) (RR + stable disease) and overall survival (OS) in first-line trials of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) treated with targeted therapies and to identify a potential surrogate for OS. Data were collected from first-line phase III randomized trials in RCC. Linear regression was undertaken to evaluate the correlations between end points and a potential surrogate end point for OS. Six randomized trials were identified containing a total of 7 treatment arms. The nonparametric Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r(s)) between PFS, PPS, and RR/DCR and OS are 0.869, and 1, 0.96/1 (all P < .0001), respectively. There is a strong relationship between differences (Δ) in DCR and ΔOS (r(s) = 1). The slope of the regression line is 0.3963 ± 0.0019, indicating that a novel drug producing a 10% increase for DCR will yield an estimated absolute 3.9% increase in OS. In first-line trials including novel targeted agents for RCC, PFS is a relatively flawed surrogate end point because of PPS influence. Improvement in DCR is strongly associated with improvement in median OS. In this population, DCR may be an appropriate surrogate for OS.