Waste Plastic to Roads - HDPE-modified Bitumen and PET Plastic Fibres for Road Maintenance in South Africa: A Review.

This review article provides a comprehensive analysis of the transformative potential of waste plastic in South Africa, with a specific focus on high-density polyethylene-modified bitumen and polyethylene terephthalate plastic fibres asphalt. The review encompasses a wide range of topics, including the environmental and socio-economic impacts of plastic waste, the current state of plastic waste management practices in South Africa, and the potential use of waste plastic in road construction. The aim is to critically evaluate the compatibility of recycled waste plastics as bitumen modifiers and fibre to enhance road performance. Additionally, it explores the challenges and opportunities associated with the incorporation of waste plastic in road construction, shedding light on the environmental, economic and technological aspects. The review also emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and collaborative efforts from the South African government and industry stakeholders to address plastic waste management challenges and promote sustainable infrastructure development. Overall, this review provides valuable insights into the transformative potential of waste plastic in South African road maintenance and offers a roadmap for future research and initiatives in this critical area of sustainable development.

South African Chiropractic Students' Intentions, Motivations, and Considerations for Emigration: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the emigration intentions of South African senior chiropractic students upon graduation, emphasizing motivations and considerations guiding migration decisions. Methods: A cross-sectional, quantitative, and exploratory approach was employed, utilizing an anonymous and adapted online survey administered to chiropractic students at 2 South African institutions (n = 177) between March 15 and May 19, 2021. Data were analyzed using frequencies, descriptions, and cross-tabulations to identify trends and interrelationships related to students' intentions to emigrate postqualification. Results: Findings indicate that 75.5% of South African chiropractic senior students intend to emigrate. Motivations for emigration include improved quality of life and seeking of opportunities. Economic instability in South Africa (SA) (82.7%) and concern for the National Health Insurance implementation (57.7%) serve as a significant push factor, whereas economic stability abroad (85.7%) emerged as a key pull factor. Preferred emigration destinations are primarily developed countries with established chiropractic communities. Conclusion: High emigration intentions among students were driven by diverse push factors in SA, including economic decline, socio-political climates, and safety concerns, contrasting with pull factors abroad, such as better opportunities, living conditions, and economic stability. Concerns regarding healthcare reforms, particularly the National Health Insurance, are also highlighted. Destinations in order of preference such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia offer valuable insights for policy interventions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective retention strategies and addressing socio-economic challenges.

From the periphery to inclusion within the health system: promoting community health worker empowerment as a way forward.

BACKGROUND: Community health worker programmes have the potential to contribute critically towards universal health coverage. However, CHWs globally have often continued to operate on the periphery of the health care system, viewed as a non-essential cadre. This results in a workforce that often remains disempowered and under-supported. This paper presents evidence from a study conducted in a rural part of South Africa, to better understand issues of CHW prioritisation, integration, and empowerment. METHODS: We applied an analytical lens based on empowerment theory and conducted a secondary analysis of qualitative data emerging from a sub-study of a cRCT evaluating the effectiveness of supportive supervision for CHWs within a large-scale national CHW programme. The cRCT was conducted between 2017 and 2022, and 39 CHWs were included in the study. RESULTS: We organised our findings across the four domains of structural empowerment; information, resources, support, and opportunity, and mapped these domains against the domains of psychological empowerment. Our findings show how CHWs are still working in the periphery of the healthcare system. Without sufficient prioritisation, high level-support from national and district governments, and sufficient investments in programmatic domains-such as training, equipment, and supportive supervision-it is likely that the CHW cadre will continue to be seen as informal health care workers. CONCLUSIONS: CHW empowerment could be a lever to potentially transform the current health system towards universal coverage; however, this process can only happen with sufficient high-level prioritization and investment.

Substance Use among School-Going Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

The ongoing public health crisis of substance use among school adolescents and young adults (AYAs) in South Africa is not new in research parlance, amidst the national policy of drug abuse management in schools. In view of no tangible progress to reduce substance use in high schools in the country, we conducted a cross-sectional quantitative study aimed at investigating substance use among adolescents and young adults in the four public high schools selected through multi-stage sampling in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. Data on substance use, demographics, household socio-demographics, and related factors were collected via a validated self-administered questionnaire. Hierarchical logistic regression was performed using STATA 18. The study included 402 AYAs aged between 14 and 23 years (18 ± 1 years), and 45% reported substance use in the last twelve months. Alcohol was the most used substance (74%), followed by cigarettes (12%) and cannabis (11%). AYAs used substances out of social influence, curiosity, to find joy, and to eliminate stress, especially in social events, on the streets, and at home, and reported negative physical health outcomes, mainly hallucinations, sleeping disorders, body weakness, and dry mouths. Hierarchical logistic regression showed that the likelihood of substance use was three times in a particular high school (S4) (AOR = 3.93, 95%CI: 1.72-8.99), twice among the grade 12s (AOR = 2.73, 95%CI: 1.46-5.11), over twenty times in the communities with substance availability (AOR = 22.45, 95%CI: 2.75-183.56), almost ten times among AYAs participating in recreational/sports activities (AOR = 9.74, 95%CI: 4.21-22.52), and twice likely to happen in larger households (AOR = 2.96, 95%CI: 1.57-5.58). Prevention and intervention efforts should consider these specific health concerns to develop targeted strategies for mitigating substance use and its adverse consequences in this vulnerable population towards achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.5, which aims to strengthen the prevention and treatment of substance abuse, including narcotic drug abuse and the harmful use of alcohol.

Temporal and Serotypic Dynamics of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae in South African Porcine Populations: A Retrospective Study from 1985 to 2023.

Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae is a major bacterial pathogen causing porcine pleuropneumoniae, which is a disease of notable economic impact and high fatality rates among pigs worldwide. It has been reported that 19 distinct serotypes of this bacterium exist. Despite its global prominence, there exists a scarcity of information regarding its prevalence and distribution in South Africa. Thus, this study used laboratory records to investigate the serotype diversity, temporal distribution, and seasonal patterns of A. pleuropneumoniae isolated from porcine samples spanning from 1985 to 2023 within South Africa. Data from laboratory registries of 354 cases, obtained from three veterinary laboratories in South Africa, were analyzed. The data were categorized into two-time frames: term 1, covering 1985 to 2001, and term 2, spanning from 2002 to 2023. The dataset identified 11 different serotypes, with serotype 7 being the most prevalent at 22.7% (n = 62), which was followed by serotype 5 at 13.8% (n = 42). The study highlighted variations in the prevalence of serotypes among diseased animals over a 38-year period. Serotypes 3, 5, 7 and 8 were commonly observed during this time, while serotype 4 was absent from 1985 to 2001, and serotypes 1, 6, and 10 were absent from 2002 to 2023. The distribution of serotypes showed a diverse variation in the age of affected animals, clinical manifestation, and seasonal occurrence. Key findings revealed that serotype 7 was the most prevalent across all seasons with the highest occurrence in winter. Additionally, Gauteng province showed the highest prevalence of various serotypes. The information collected during this study will serve as a baseline for future epidemiological studies as well as inform control strategies.

A description of two novel Psilocybe species from southern Africa and some notes on African traditional hallucinogenic mushroom use.

Two new Psilocybe species (Hymenogastraceae), P. ingeli and P. maluti, are described from southern Africa. Morphology and phylogeny were used to separate the two novel fungi from their closest relatives in the genus. Psilocybe ingeli was found fruiting on bovine manure-enriched grasslands in the Kwa-Zulu Natal Province of South Africa and differs from its closest relative P. keralensis and others in the internal transcribed spacer ITS1-5.8S-ITS2, partial 28S nuc rDNA, and translation elongation factor 1-alpha regions, distribution, and having larger basidiospores. Similarly, P. maluti was collected from the Free State Province of South Africa and observed in the Kingdom of Lesotho, growing on bovine manure. A secotioid pileus, geographic distribution, and differences in the same DNA regions distinguish P. maluti from its closest relative P. chuxiongensis. Furthermore, the spore dispersal and traditional, spiritualistic use of P. maluti are discussed here.

The utilisation of emergency point-of-care ultrasound in a tertiary hospital emergency department in East London, South Africa.

Introduction: Emergency departments are the primary entry point for emergencies in the public healthcare system. Resource constraints burden a large proportion of the public hospital emergency departments, which includes limited access to radiological services. Emergency point-of-care ultrasound provides a tool capable of bridging this gap. The Eastern Cape is yet to describe the utilisation of emergency point-of-care ultrasound in any of its emergency departments. Methods: Frere Hospital initiated a clinical audit to assess the utilisation of emergency point-of-care ultrasound in its emergency department in 2022. This study was a retrospective review of the audit between 01 November 2022 until 28 February 2023. Data from the handwritten register regarding patient's presenting complaints and provisional diagnoses was also captured during the study period to draw comparisons between burden of disease and use of emergency point-of-care ultrasound. Results: A total of 9501 patients attended Frere Hospital's emergency department over the study period with 492 emergency point-of-care ultrasounds performed (overall utilisation rate 5.2 %). The five credentialed emergency point-of-care ultrasound providers performed the majority (n = 360, 73.2 %) of the applications, compared to 132 (26.8 %) performed by the seven non-credentialed providers. The extended focused abdominal sonography in trauma (eFAST) was the most frequently performed application (n = 140, 28.5 %). Conclusion: Emergency point-of-care ultrasound is underutilised in Frere Hospital's emergency department. The varied casemix requires upskilling of clinicians in emergency point-of-care ultrasound to suit the burden of disease experienced in the department. Ongoing emergency point-of-care ultrasound training, credentialing and research is important to ensure appropriate and quality emergency point-of-care ultrasound utilisation.

Exposure to Adversity and its Impact on Later Life Cognitive, Mental, and Physical Health.

Objectives: We aimed to assess later-life health responses to childhood and lifetime adversity in a cohort of rural, Black South African adults. Methods: We performed ordinary least squares regression using two waves of data from Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) to estimate a decline in cognitive, mental, and physical health over approximately 3 years. Our analytic sample consisted of 1,993 women and 1,496 men. Results: Associations between several types of adversity and health outcomes point to declines in health. At the same time, many adverse experiences are associated with improvements in cognitive, mental, and physical health in later life. The direction of the association varied by type of exposure, health outcome, and gender. Conclusion: In populations exposed to many adversities during life, specific adverse experiences may sometimes be associated with greater improvements (and not just greater decline) in health in later life. Further research is needed to unpack the mechanisms at play in these populations.

Interaction of social support and depressive symptoms on antiretroviral therapy adherence among people living with HIV in South Africa.

Background: Depression consistently emerges as a significant predictor of poor antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence among adult people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV). However, a gap exists regarding how social support and depressive symptoms can interact to influence ART adherence among adult PLHIV in South Africa (SA). Aim: To investigate the interaction between social support and depressive symptoms on ART adherence among adult PLHIV. Setting: A tertiary hospital in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal province of SA. Methods: Utilising a quantitative cross-sectional research design along with time location sampling technique (TLS); the study recruited 201 adult patients enrolled in an ART programme. Results: The results indicated that depressive symptoms were significantly associated with ART adherence with and without the interaction (B = -0.105; odds ratios [OR] 0.901; 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.827, 0.981; p = 0.016), while social support was not significantly associated with ART adherence (B = 0.007; OR 1.007; 95%CI = 0.989, 1.025; p = 0.475). However, a statistically significant interaction was found between social support and depressive symptoms (B = -0.006; OR 0.994; 95%CI = 0.989, 1.000; p = 0.037) on ART adherence. Conclusion: Based on the results, depressive symptoms significantly influenced ART adherence. However, social support did not buffer the adverse effects of clinical depression associated with poor ART adherence. Contribution: This study provides an evidence-based approach to address gaps in the mental health and social well-being of PLHIV in the context of ART adherence.

Nurse prescribing and dispensing in South Africa: Gaps in the current legislative framework.

Background: Nurse prescribing and dispensing are central to ensuring universal health access in South Africa. Objective: To describe the historical development of the legal enablements of nurse prescribing and dispensing in South Africa and highlight gaps in the current legislative framework. Method: This is a discussion article. Results: We emphasise significant deficiencies in the current legislative landscape that pose challenges to these vital nursing practices and call for urgent revisions of the legislative framework, particularly the revision of Section 56 of the Nursing Act (33 of 2005) and its related regulations, to formalise authorisation of specialist nurse prescribers in public and private practice. This will also entail an application to the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAPHRA) for the scheduling of substances by authorised nurse prescribers in the defined professional nurse and specialist nurse categories by the Minister of Health. Conclusion: There is a necessity for prompt legislative revisions to address identified deficiencies. Contribution: The contribution of this article lies in its advocacy for changes to the regulatory framework to further enable nurses to deliver safe and comprehensive health care.

Understanding the impacts of the COVID-19 response measures on Deaf adults in Cape Town.

Background: International literature has evidenced that Deaf people have been disadvantaged during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, there is currently little research published within the South African context. Objectives: This study investigated the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequent response measures impacted Deaf adults in Cape Town. Method: Using a descriptive approach, semi-structured, qualitative interviews were held with 15 Deaf adults in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants were purposively selected through a local Deaf organisation. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Data revealed the challenges experienced when accessing information, the impact of communication barriers on daily life, and how the response measures impacted access to healthcare. Conclusion: The findings of this study demonstrate how the needs of the Deaf community were overlooked and their voices disregarded during the planning of the national pandemic response, ultimately having detrimental consequences. Therefore, the authors argue for greater inclusion of Deaf representatives to ensure equal access to information and resources, especially during a crisis. Contribution: This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the field of disability and insights can inform both future research and interventions to promote equity and inclusion for Deaf people.

Developing an electronic portfolio of learning for family medicine training in South Africa.

Workplace-based assessment has become increasingly crucial in the postgraduate training of specialists in South Africa, particularly for family physicians. The development of a Portfolio of Learning (PoL) has been a central focus within the discipline of family medicine for over a decade. Initially, a paper-based portfolio was adopted to collect evidence of learning for 50 out of 85 agreed exit-level outcomes. Stellenbosch University led the conversion of this portfolio into an electronic format, known as e-PoL, utilising Scorion software. The e-PoL was successfully implemented in the Western and Eastern Cape regions and was subsequently adopted nationally under the coordination of the South African Academy of Family Physicians. In 2023, the e-PoL underwent a redesign to gather evidence of learning for 22 entrustable professional activities (EPAs). Key insights from this development process underscore the importance of the PoL in supporting assessment-for-learning rather than merely assessment-of-learning. This necessitates features for feedback and interaction, ensuring that the PoL functions beyond a mere repository of forms. Additionally, the e-PoL should facilitate triangulation, aggregation, and saturation of data points to effectively measure EPAs. Furthermore, the PoL has not only documented learning but has also played a pivotal role in guiding the development of clinical training by explicitly outlining expectations for both registrars and supervisors. While the initial design and development costs are significant, operational costs become affordable when shared across all training programmes.

Hepatitis B immunisation and immune status of nurses in a regional hospital in central South Africa.

BACKGROUND:  The hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the most important biological occupational hazards for healthcare workers. A high percentage of HBV infections are attributable to percutaneous occupational exposure. This study aimed to describe the HBV immunisation and current immune status of all the nurses employed in a regional hospital in central South Africa. METHODS:  A descriptive record review included all the nurses (N = 388) employed in a regional hospital in central South Africa from 01 January 2018 to 31 January 2020. A total of 289 health records were included in the study. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Logistic regression analysis was used to establish factors associated with full immunisation. RESULTS:  Most nurses were females (87.9%), working in medical (27.0%) wards. Only 20.4% of nurses received one dose of vaccine, while 51.2% received the three prescribed doses. However, 91.2% of nurses did not receive the vaccine at the correct intervals. Most of the tested nurses (71.0%) were immune. Immunisation status was significantly associated with religion (p  0.001) and schedule (p = 0.003). Nurses who were non-Christians were 35.9% less likely to be fully vaccinated compared to Christians. CONCLUSION:  Half of the nursing staff received three doses as prescribed. All nurses should receive the vaccine against HBV and their immune status monitored to minimise the risk of an infection. It is therefore recommended that proof of immunity should be a requirement.Contribution: This study found a high percentage of nurses with HBV antibodies, which will ensure workplace safety.

Legal requirements for reporting clinical cases to the South African police or social services.

Medical confidentiality is the cornerstone for a trustful relationship between patients and the health professionals attending to them. However, when history or clinical findings suggest certain offenses, statutory laws (Children's Act, Older Persons Act, Mental Health Care Act, Sexual Offenses Act) establish a legal obligation for health professionals to report suspected instances of abuse to the police or alternatively, in some cases, to a designated social worker. Given the high rate of domestic violence and abuse in South Africa, health professionals are most likely to encounter such situations. Many clinicians are oblivious of the obligations, exposing themselves to possible liability and their patients to potential additional harm. This article aims to demonstrate the reporting requirements under the respective acts through case scenarios. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the existing legal setting are discussed briefly.

The cost of adding rapid screening for diabetes, hypertension, and COVID-19 to COVID-19 vaccination queues in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for 51% of total mortality in South Africa, with a rising burden of hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Incorporating NCDs and COVID-19 screening into mass activities such as COVID-19 vaccination programs could offer significant long-term benefits for early detection interventions. However, there is limited knowledge of the associated costs and resources required. We evaluated the cost of integrating NCD screening and COVID-19 antigen rapid diagnostic testing (Ag-RDT) into a COVID-19 vaccination program. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cost analysis at three public sector primary healthcare clinics and one academic hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa, conducting vaccinations. Participants were assessed for eligibility and recruited during May-Dec 2022. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective using a bottom-up micro-costing approach and reported in 2022 USD. RESULTS: Of the 1,376 enrolled participants, 240 opted in to undergo a COVID-19 Ag-RDT, and none tested positive for COVID-19. 138 (10.1%) had elevated blood pressure, with 96 (70%) having no prior HTN diagnosis. 22 (1.6%) were screen-positive for DM, with 12 (55%) having no prior diagnosis. The median cost per person screened for NCDs was $1.70 (IQR: $1.38-$2.49), respectively. The average provider cost per person found to have elevated blood glucose levels and blood pressure was $157.99 and $25.19, respectively. Finding a potentially new case of DM and HTN was $289.65 and $36.21, respectively. For DM and DM + HTN screen-positive participants, diagnostic tests were the main cost driver, while staff costs were the main cost driver for DM- and HTN screen-negative and HTN screen-positive participants. The median cost per Ag-RDT was $5.95 (IQR: $5.55-$6.25), with costs driven mainly by test kit costs. CONCLUSIONS: We show the cost of finding potentially new cases of DM and HTN in a vaccine queue, which is an essential first step in understanding the feasibility and resource requirements for such initiatives. However, there is a need for comparative economic analyses that include linkage to care and retention data to fully understand this cost and determine whether opportunistic screening should be added to general mass health activities.

Adolescent girls and young women's (AGYW) access to and use of contraception services in Cape Town: perspectives from AGYW and health care providers.

BACKGROUND: Access and use of contraception services by adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) remains suboptimal, exposing AGYW to early and often unexpected pregnancy. Unexpected pregnancies are a public health concern, associated with poor neonatal and maternal health outcomes, as well as school dropout, which may result in economic hardships. This study aimed to explore (a) AGYW perceptions and experiences of receiving contraception services from health care providers and (b) health care providers' perceptions and experiences of providing contraception services to AGYW. METHODS: Data were collected through semi-structured individual interviews with AGYW aged 15-24 years old and health care providers working in eight health care facilities around the Cape Town metropolitan area, in South Africa's Western Cape Province. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: AGYW and health care providers voiced varying, and often contrasting, perceptions of some of the barriers that hinder AGYW's access to contraception services. AGYW indicated that provider-imposed rules about when to access contraceptive services hindered access, while health care providers felt that these rules were necessary for coordinating their work. In addition, AGYW highlighted health care providers' hostile attitudes towards them as an important factor discouraging access. On the contrary, health care providers did not think that their attitudes hampered AGYW's access to and use of contraception services, instead they emphasised that challenges at the health system level were a major issue, which they feel they have little control over. Such challenges made health care providers' work unpleasant and frustrating, impacting on their work approach and how they receive and offer services to AGYW. CONCLUSION: The expectation of negative attitudes from health care providers continues to be at the centre of AGYW discouragement towards accessing contraception services. System challenges are among some of the key drivers of health care provider's hostile attitudes, posing challenges to the efficient provision of services. In order to improve AGYW's access to and use of contraception services, and subsequently achieve the country's SDGs, conscious efforts need to be directed towards improving the workload and working conditions of health care providers.

Exploring the Relationship Between Anticipated Stigma and Community Shared Concerns about HIV on Defaulting from HIV Care in Rural South Africa.

Although stigma has been associated with people living with HIV defaulting from care, there is a gap in understanding the specific impact of individual stigma and community-level concern about HIV on defaulting. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a unique dataset that links health facility-based medical records to a population-representative community survey conducted in 2018 in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. We used the parametric g-formula to estimate associations among individual anticipated stigma, low perceived community and local leader concern about HIV, and defaulting from care in the prior year. In addition, we estimated the population-level effects of intervening to reduce stigma and increase concern on defaulting. Results: Among 319 participants on treatment, 42 (13.2%) defaulted from care during the prior year. Anticipated stigma (risk ratio [RR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72, 2.74), low perceived concern about HIV/AIDS from community leadership (RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.76, 3.38), and low shared concerns about HIV/AIDS in the community (RR 1.37; 95% CI 0.79, 3.07) were not significantly associated with default. Hypothetical population intervention effects to remove individual anticipated stigma and low community concerns yielded small reductions in default (~1% reduction). Conclusions: In this sample, we found limited impact of reducing anticipated stigma and increasing shared concern about HIV on retention in care. Future studies should consider the limitations of this study by examining the influence of other sources of stigma in more detail and assessing how perceptions of stigma and concern impact the full HIV testing and care cascade.

Community dialogue to enhance understanding of beliefs, behaviours and barriers to care for people living with liver disease and HBV infection in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa.

Introduction: The World Health Organisation (WHO) has set targets for the elimination of Hepatitis B virus (HBV), which include preventing new infections and reducing deaths. We explored beliefs, behaviours and barriers to diagnosis, prevention and treatment for people living with HBV infection (PLWHB) and those with liver disease in a rural South African population in KwaZulu-Natal, to gather information to inform research and support the development of improved clinical and public health services. Methods: Using an interdisciplinary approach (combining public engagement, social science, clinical and laboratory team members) we conducted a community dialogue with members of the Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI) Community Advisory Board (CAB). Notes from the discussions were used to write up an account from which themes were identified during a team debrief session for data analysis. Results: There was a lack of knowledge and awareness of HBV infection and transmission and prevention amongst CAB members, also reported among community members and healthcare workers. The participants recognised liver disease symptoms. Perceived causes of liver disease reported by the CAB were alcohol and non-adherence to HIV treatment. Barriers to care included stigma, poverty, and delays in referrals for HBV diagnosis and management. Conclusion: Understanding barriers to care is important to shape future services for diagnosis, treatment and prevention of HBV and liver disease which are accessible, affordable and acceptable to the local population. Education, awareness and advocacy for improved liver health care pathways are required to make them effective for local communities.

A Risk Prediction Model to Identify People Living with HIV Who are High-risk for Disengagement from Care after HIV Diagnosis in South Africa.

The provision of ART in South Africa has transformed the HIV epidemic, resulting in an increase in life expectancy by over 10 years. Despite this, nearly 2 million people living with HIV are not on treatment. The objective of this study was to develop and externally validate a practical risk assessment tool to identify people with HIV (PWH) at highest risk for attrition from care after testing. A machine learning model incorporating clinical and psychosocial factors was developed in a primary cohort of 498 PWH. LASSO regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a model using 80% of the primary cohort as a training dataset and validated using the remaining 20% of the primary cohort and data from an independent cohort of 96 participants. The risk score was developed using the Sullivan and D'Agostino point based method. Of 498 participants with mean age 35.7 years, 192 (38%) did not initiate ART after diagnosis. Controlling for site, factors associated with non-engagement in care included being < 35 years, feeling abandoned by God, maladaptive coping strategies using alcohol or other drugs, no difficulty concentrating, and having high levels of confidence in one's ability to handle personal challenges. An effective risk score can enable clinicians and implementers to focus on tailoring care for those most in need of ongoing support. Further research should focus on potential strategies to enhance the generalizability and evaluate the implementation of the proposed risk prediction model in HIV treatment programs.

RESUMEN: La provisión de TAR (Terapia Antirretroviral) en Sudáfrica ha transformado la epidemia del VIH, resultando en un aumento de la esperanza de vida de más de 10 años. Los últimos objetivos de tratamiento del VIH se sitúan en 94-75-92, con brechas notables después de las pruebas. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar y validar externamente una herramienta práctica de evaluación de riesgos para identificar a las personas con VIH (PVH) con mayor riesgo de deserción del cuidado después de las pruebas. Se desarrolló un modelo sencillo de aprendizaje automático que incorpora factores clínicos y psicosociales en una cohorte primaria de 498 PVH. Se utilizó el análisis de regresión LASSO para optimizar la selección de variables. Se aplicó un análisis de regresión logística multivariable para construir un modelo usando el 80% de la cohorte primaria como conjunto de datos de entrenamiento y validado usando el 20% restante de la cohorte primaria y datos de una cohorte independiente de 96 participantes. El puntaje de riesgo se desarrolló utilizando el método basado en puntos de Sullivan y D'Agostino. De los 498 participantes con una edad media de 35,7 años, 192 (38%) no iniciaron TAR después del diagnóstico. Controlando por sitio, los factores asociados con la no participación en el cuidado incluyeron tener menos de 35 años, sentirse abandonado por Dios, estrategias de afrontamiento desadaptativas usando alcohol u otras drogas, no tener dificultades para concentrarse y tener altos niveles de confianza en la capacidad de manejar desafíos personales. Un puntaje de riesgo efectivo puede permitir a los clínicos y ejecutores enfocarse en personalizar el cuidado para aquellos que más necesitan apoyo continuo. Las investigaciones futuras deben centrarse en estrategias potenciales para mejorar la generalización y evaluar la implementación del modelo de predicción de riesgo propuesto en los programas de tratamiento del VIH.

The demand for private telehealth services in low- and middle-income countries: Evidence from South Africa.

In low- and middle-income countries, many believe that telehealth services could significantly expand access to doctors by offering remote access at low cost. Yet, despite its convenience, telehealth care is limited by the absence of physical examination, point-of-care testing, or immediate treatment. Hence it is unclear how individuals value such options compared to standard face-to-face care. We study this issue in South Africa with general practitioners who today mostly practice in the private sector and are geographically located in wealthier areas with higher health insurance coverage. We use an incentive-compatible method to elicit robust measures of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for telehealth and face-to-face consultations with general practitioners in a sample of uninsured individuals. We find that only 36% of respondents are willing to pay the prevailing market price for a telehealth consultation. We find average WTP for in-person consultations is only 10% higher than that of telehealth. Additionally, individuals with higher health needs are willing to pay a premium for face-to-face consultations, while others are indifferent. Our findings suggest that private telehealth services are better suited for more minor health needs, but are unlikely to expand access to a majority unless cheaper models are introduced.