Characteristics and risk factors for invasive fungal infection in hospitalized patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: a retrospective cohort study from 2010 to 2023.

Background and aim: The global burden of invasive fungal infections (IFIs) is emerging in immunologic deficiency status from various disease. Patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) are prone to IFI and their conditions are commonly exacerbated by IFI. However, little is known about the characteristics and risk factors for IFI in hospitalized ACHBLF patients. Methods: A total of 243 hospitalized ACHBLF patients were retrospectively enrolled from January 2010 to July 2023. We performed restricted cubic spline analysis to determine the non-linear associations between independent variables and IFI. The risk factors for IFI were identified using logistic regression and the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The effect values of the risk factors were determined by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. Results: There were 24 ACHBLF patients (9.84%) who developed IFI on average 17.5 (13.50, 23.00) days after admission. The serum creatinine level showed a non-linear association with the possibility of IFI. Multiple logistic regression revealed that length of hospitalization (OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08, P = 0.002) and neutrophilic granulocyte percentage (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.09, P = 0.042) were independent risk factors for IFI. The XGBoost algorithm showed that the use of antibiotics (SHAP value = 0.446), length of hospitalization (SHAP value = 0.406) and log (qHBV DNA) (SHAP value = 0.206) were the top three independent risk factors for IFI. Furthermore, interaction analysis revealed no multiplicative effects between the use of antibiotics and the use of glucocorticoids (P = 0.990). Conclusion: IFI is a rare complication that leads to high mortality in hospitalized ACHBLF patients, and a high neutrophilic granulocyte percentage and length of hospitalization are independent risk factors for the occurrence of IFI.

Serum Exosomal Long Noncoding RNA Growth Arrest-Specific 5 Predicts 3-Month Mortality in Acute-on-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure.

Background: Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a clinical syndrome with an extremely high mortality. In this study, we aim to evaluate the potential role of serum exosomal long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) growth arrest-specific 5 (GAS5) in ACHBLF and its predictive value for 3-month mortality. Methods: From December 2017 to June 2022, we enrolled 110 patients with ACHBLF and 42 healthy controls (HCs). Exosomes were isolated from the serum of the participants. Serum exosomal lncRNA GAS5 was detected using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). The functional role of lncRNA GAS5 on hepatocyte phenotypes was investigated through loss-of-function and gain-of-function assays. Exosomal labeling and cell uptake assay were used to determine the exosomes-mediated transmission of lncRNA GAS5 in hepatocytes in vitro. Results: The serum exosomal lncRNA GAS5 was identified to be an independent predictor for 3-month mortality of ACHBLF. It yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.88, which was significantly higher than MELD score (AUC 0.73; P < 0.01). Further study found that lncRNA GAS5 could inhibit hepatocytes proliferation and increase hepatocytes apoptosis. Exosomes-mediated lncRNA GAS5 transfer promoted hepatocytes injury. The knocked down of lncRNA GAS5 weakened H2O2-induced hepatocytes injury. Conclusion: We revealed that serum exosomal lncRNA GAS5 might promote hepatocytes injury and showed high predictive value for 3-month mortality in ACHBLF.

SOCS1 methylation level is associated with prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Glucocorticoids could greatly improve the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). Suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS) 1 methylation has been shown to be associated with mortality in ACHBLF. METHODS: Eighty patients with ACHBLF were divided into group glucocorticoid (GC) and group conservative medical (CM). Sixty patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and Thirty healthy controls (HCs) served as control group. SOCS1 methylation levels in peripheral mononuclear cells (PBMCs) was detected by MethyLight. RESULTS: SOCS1 methylation levels were significantly higher in patients with ACHBLF than those with CHB and HCs (P < 0.01, respectively). Nonsurvivors showed significantly higher SOCS1 methylation levels (P < 0.05) than survivors in both GC and CM groups in ACHBLF patients. Furthermore, the survival rates of the SOCS1 methylation-negative group were significantly higher than that of the methylation-positive group at 1 month (P = 0.014) and 3 months (P = 0.003) follow-up. Meanwhile, GC group and CM group had significantly lower mortality at 3 months, which may be related to application of glucocorticoid. In the SOCS1 methylation-positive group, the 1-month survival rate was significantly improved, which may be related to GC treatment (P = 0.020). However, no significant difference could be observed between the GC group and CM group in the methylation-negative group (P = 0.190). CONCLUSIONS: GC treatment could decrease the mortality of ACHBLF and SOCS1 methylation levels might serve as prognostic marker for favorable response to glucocorticoid treatment.

A novel nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a single-center retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a critical illness with high mortality. Herein, we developed and validated a new and simple prognostic nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) patients. METHODS: This single-center retrospective study collected data from 181 HBV-ACLF patients treated between June 2018 and March 2020. The correlation between clinical data and 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (p = 0.011), hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.001), total bilirubin (p = 0.007), international normalized ratio (p = 0.006), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = 0.011) were independent predictors of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. A nomogram was created to predict 90-day mortality using these risk factors. The C-index for the prognostic nomogram was calculated as 0.866, and confirmed to be 0.854 via bootstrapping verification. The area under the curve was 0.870 in the external validation cohort. The predictive value of the nomogram was similar to that of the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B score, and exceeded the performance of other prognostic scores. CONCLUSION: The prognostic nomogram constructed using the factors identified in multivariate regression analysis might serve as a beneficial tool to predict 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Hypomethylation of thymosin ß4 promoter is associated with glucocorticoid therapy in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B-induced liver failure.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine whether the methylation status of thymosin ß4 (Tß4) promoter reflects the severity of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) and whether glucocorticoids affect this status. METHODS: Fifty-six patients with ACHBLF, 45 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 32 healthy controls (HCs), were retrospectively enrolled. Methylation-specific PCR and real-time PCR were used to detect Tß4 methylation frequency and mRNA level. The expression of Tß4 was measured before and after glucocorticoid treatment in patients with ACHBLF. Clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. RESULTS: Tß4 mRNA expression of patients with ACHBLF was lower than in patients with CHB or HCs, but the methylation frequency was higher. Tß4 promoter methylation frequency was correlated with serum total bilirubin, prothrombin activity and model for end-stage liver disease score. Moreover, Tß4 promoter methylation frequency decreased and demethylation occurred during glucocorticoid therapy. After glucocorticoid therapy, Tß4 mRNA expression and liver function were better in patients with low levels of methylation than in those with higher levels. After 90 d, the survival of patients with low levels of methylation was significantly higher than those with high levels. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ACHBLF who have low levels of Tß4 methylation may show a more favorable response to glucocorticoid treatment.

Hypermethylation of thymosin ß4 predicts a poor prognosis for patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND: It has been demonstrated that thymosin ß4 (Tß4) could inflect the severity of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF), but the relationship between its methylation status and the prognosis of liver failure is not clear. This study aimed to determine Tß4 promoter methylation status in patients with ACHBLF and to evaluate its prognostic value. METHODS: The study recruited 115 patients with ACHBLF, 80 with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B pre-liver failure (pre-ACHBLF), and 86 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In addition, there were 36 healthy controls (HCs) from the Department of Hepatology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University. The 115 patients with ACHBLF were divided into three subgroups: 33 with early stage ACHBLF (E-ACHBLF), 42 with mid-stage ACHBLF (M-ACHBLF), and 40 with advanced stage ACHBLF (A-ACHBLF). Tß4 promoter methylation status in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) was measured by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction, and mRNA was detected by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Methylation frequency of Tß4 was significantly higher in patients with ACHBLF than in those with pre-ACHBLF, CHB or HCs. However, expression of Tß4 mRNA showed the opposite trend. In patients with ACHBLF, Tß4 promoter methylation status correlated negatively with mRNA levels. The 3-month mortality of ACHBLF in the methylated group was significantly higher than that in the unmethylated group. Also, Tß4 promoter methylation frequency was lower in survivors than in non-survivors. When used to predict the 1-, 2-, and 3-month incidence of ACHBLF, Tß4 methylation status was better than the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The predictive value of Tß4 methylation was higher than that of MELD score for the mortality of patients with E-ACHBLF and M-ACHBLF, but not for A-ACHBLF. CONCLUSIONS: Tß4 methylation might be an important early marker for predicting disease incidence and prognosis in patients with ACHBLF.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for 90-day Outcome in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure.

Background and Aims: It is challenging to predict the 90-day outcomes of patients infected with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) via prevailing predictive models. This study aimed to develop an innovative model to enhance the analytical efficacy of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF. Methods: In this study, 149 HBV-ACLF patients were evaluated by constructing a death risk prediction nomogram. Bootstrap resampling and an independent validation cohort comprising 31 patients from June 2019 to February 2020 were assessed for model confirmation. Results: The nomogram was constructed by entering and identifying five factors (age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity (PTA), lymphocyte (L)%, and monocyte (M)%. Healthy refinement was achieved from the nomogram analysis, where the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864 for the training cohort and 0.874 was achieved for the validation cohort. There was admirable concordance between the predicted and true results in the equilibrium curve. The decision curve assessment revealed the useful clinical application of the nomogram. Conclusions: We constructed an innovative nomogram and validated it for the prediction of 90-day HBV-ACLF patient outcomes. This model might help develop optimized treatment protocol recommendations for HBV-ACLF patients.

Novel Prognostic Models for Predicting the 180-day Outcome for Patients with Hepatitis-B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It remains difficult to forecast the 180-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) using existing prognostic models. The present study aimed to derive novel-innovative models to enhance the predictive effectiveness of the 180-day mortality in HBV-ACLF. METHODS: The present cohort study examined 171 HBV-ACLF patients (non-survivors, n=62; survivors, n=109). The 27 retrospectively collected parameters included the basic demographic characteristics, clinical comorbidities, and laboratory values. Backward stepwise logistic regression (LR) and the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to derive two predictive models. Meanwhile, a nomogram was created based on the LR analysis. The accuracy of the LR and CART model was detected through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), compared with model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. RESULTS: Among 171 HBV-ACLF patients, the mean age was 45.17 years-old, and 11.7% of the patients were female. The LR model was constructed with six independent factors, which included age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, lymphocytes, monocytes and hepatic encephalopathy. The following seven variables were the prognostic factors for HBV-ACLF in the CART model: age, total bilirubin, prothrombin time, lymphocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, and blood urea nitrogen. The AUROC for the CART model (0.878) was similar to that for the LR model (0.878, p=0.898), and this exceeded that for the MELD scores (0.728, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The LR and CART model are both superior to the MELD scores in predicting the 180-day mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF. Both the LR and CART model can be used as medical decision-making tools by clinicians.

Receptor-Interacting Protein Kinase 3 (RIPK3) mRNA Levels Are Elevated in Blood Mononuclear Cells of Patients with Poor Prognosis of Acute-on-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure.

Necroptosis refers to a programmed form of necrosis, which involves the receptor-interacting protein kinase 3 (RIPK3) and mixed lineage kinase domain-like protein (MLKL). In this study, to investigate the role of necroptosis in the pathogenesis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF), we retrospectively analyzed 122 patients with ACHBLF, 131 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and 35 healthy controls (HCs). Using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), we measured RIPK3 mRNA levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). ELISA was performed to measure the serum levels of MLKL, TNF-α and caspase-8. We found that RIPK3 mRNA levels were significantly higher in patients with ACHBLF than those with CHB or HCs. RIPK3 mRNA levels in patients with ACHBLF were positively correlated with serum levels of TNF-α or MLKL and negatively correlated with caspase-8 levels. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that RIPK3 mRNA level was predictive of 3-month mortality of ACHBLF. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of RIPK3 mRNA levels was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.729-0.876), which was higher than that of MELD scores (0.766, 95% CI: 0.681-0.838). The optimal cut-off point of 8.81 was determined for RIPK3 mRNA levels, which showed a sensitivity of 80.7% and a negative predictive value of 80.4%. These results indicate that elevated RIPK3 mRNA levels in PBMCs are associated with poor prognosis of ACHBLF. We thus propose that necroptosis may play an important role in pathogenesis of ACHBLF.

Plasma concentration of diamine oxidase (DAO) predicts 1-month mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) has high 1-month mortality but it is difficult to predict. This present study was aimed to determine the diagnostic value of plasma diamine oxidase (DAO) in predicting the 1-month mortality of ACHBLF. METHODS: A total of 106 consecutive newly diagnosed ACHBLF patients were retrospectively collected. The plasma expression of DAO was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RESULTS: The plasma DAO level of survivals [14.0 (7.1; 26.5) ng/mL] was significantly lower than the nonsurvivals [58.6 (32.5; 121.3) ng/mL, P < .001]. The plasma DAO level, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were independent factors associated with the 1-month mortality for ACHBLF. The cut-off point of 15.2 ng/mL for plasma DAO level with sensitivity of 95.45%, specificity of 62.5%, 22.6 for MELD score with sensitivity of 90.91%, specificity of 67.5%, 0.07 for DAO plus MELD with sensitivity of 87.88%, specificity of 80% were selected to discriminate 1-month morality of ACHBLF. Furthermore, DAO plus MELD score showed high AUROC than MELD score for predicting 1-month (0.916 vs. 0.843, P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: The plasma DAO level plus MELD > 0.07 predicts poor 1-month mortality of ACHBLF.

A MELD-based nomogram for predicting 3-month mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is associated with poor short-term prognosis. The aim of the present study was to construct and validate a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based nomogram for the 3-month mortality estimation for patients with ACHBLF. METHODS: A total of 551 patients with ACHBLF were prospectively enrolled from 2 independent medical centers and divided into 2 cohorts of training and validation, respectively. The 3-month mortality was recorded as the outcome. The MELD-based nomogram was constructed to predict the 3-month mortality for ACHBLF using the training group of 335 patients and validated using an independent cohort of 216 patients. The predictive capability of MELD-based nomogram was compared with the MELD score system by calibration analysis, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and decision curve analysis in both training cohort and validation cohort. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis suggested that age, serum sodium, and MELD score were independent prognostic indicators associated with the 3-month mortality for ACHBLF, and therefore used for developing the nomogram. In terms of calibration, the predicted survival by the MELD-based nomogram was found to be extremely in line with the observed 3-month mortality both in training cohort and validation cohort. Additionally, both ROC and decision curve analyses showed that the MELD-based nomogram was better than MELD, MELD-Na, MELDNa, and iMELD for ACHBLF prognosis prediction. The results were confirmed in the external cohort of validation. CONCLUSIONS: The MELD-based nomogram provided a user-friendly, accurate and reproducible tool for predicting 3-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF.

Hypermethylation of the galectin-3 promoter is associated with poor prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The possible role of galectin-3 in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the methylation status of the galectin-3 promoter in patients with ACHBLF and analyze its prognostic value. METHODS: The methylation status of the galectin-3 promoter in patients with ACHBLF, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and healthy controls (HCs) was determined by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction (MSP). The galectin-3 mRNA level in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) was detected using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: The methylation frequency of the galectin-3 promoter was significantly higher while galectin-3 mRNA was lower in ACHBLF than in CHB and HCs. Galectin-3 promoter methylation was negatively correlated with the mRNA level in ACHBLF. In addition, ACHBLF patients carrying the methylated promoter showed shorter survival time, higher 3-month mortality, and higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score when compared to ACHBLF patients carrying the unmethylated promoter. Moreover, promoter methylation was a better predictor of 3-week mortality than the MELD score in ACHBLF patients. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that hypermethylation of the galectin-3 promoter might be an early biomarker for predicting disease severity and prognosis in patients with ACHBLF.

High promoter methylation levels of glutathione-S-transferase M3 predict poor prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of glutathione-S-transferase M3 (GSTM3) gene promoter methylation in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). METHODS: A total of 119 patients with ACHBLF, 60 patients with chronic hepatitis B and 30 healthy controls were enrolled. We used a quantitative methylation detection technique, MethyLight, to examine the methylation levels of GSTM3 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. RESULTS: The GSTM3 methylation level was significantly higher in patients with ACHBLF than those in patients with chronic hepatitis B and healthy controls (both P < 0.05). In patients with ACHBLF, GSTM3 methylation level percentage of methylated reference (PMR) positively correlated with total bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and negatively correlated with prothrombin activity and albumin (all P < 0.05). The PMR for GSTM3 of non-survivors was significantly increased compared to that of survivors (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that GSTM3 methylation level was one of the independent prognostic factors for 3-month mortality of ACHBLF (P = 0.000). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of PMR for GSTM3 in predicting 3-month mortality of ACHBLF was not statistically different from that of MELD score (0.798 vs. 0.716, P = 0.152). However, the area under the curve of PMR for GSTM3 was significantly higher than that of MELD score in predicting 1-month mortality (0.887 vs. 0.737, P = 0.020). CONCLUSION: Promoter methylation levels of GSTM3 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells closely correlated with disease severity and could be used to predict prognosis of patients with ACHBLF.

Classification and regression tree analysis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: Seeing the forest for the trees.

At present, there is no ideal model for predicting the short-term outcome of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). This study aimed to establish and validate a prognostic model by using the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. A total of 1047 patients from two separate medical centres with suspected ACHBLF were screened in the study, which were recognized as derivation cohort and validation cohort, respectively. CART analysis was applied to predict the 3-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF. The accuracy of the CART model was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, which was compared with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and a new logistic regression model. CART analysis identified four variables as prognostic factors of ACHBLF: total bilirubin, age, serum sodium and INR, and three distinct risk groups: low risk (4.2%), intermediate risk (30.2%-53.2%) and high risk (81.4%-96.9%). The new logistic regression model was constructed with four independent factors, including age, total bilirubin, serum sodium and prothrombin activity by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performances of the CART model (0.896), similar to the logistic regression model (0.914, P=.382), exceeded that of MELD score (0.667, P<.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. We have developed and validated a novel CART model superior to MELD for predicting three-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF. Thus, the CART model could facilitate medical decision-making and provide clinicians with a validated practical bedside tool for ACHBLF risk stratification.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Determining individual risk of short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram for ACHBLF patients. METHODS: The nomogram was built to estimate the probability of 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 60-month survival based on an internal cohort of 246 patients with ACHBLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), comparing with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external cohort of 138 patients. Furthermore, we plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of nomogram. RESULTS: Independent factors derived from multivariable Cox analysis of training cohort to predict mortality were age, total bilirubin, serum sodium, and prothrombin activity, which were all assembled into nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomogram was higher than that of MELD score for predicting survival (30-day, 0.809 vs 0.717, P < 0.001; 60-day, 0.792 vs 0.685, P < 0.001; 90-day, 0.779 vs 0.678, P < 0.001; 6-month, 0.781 vs 0.677, P < 0.001). Additionally, tdROC and decision curves also showed that nomogram was superior to MELD score. The results were confirmed in validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic nomogram provided an individualized risk estimate of short-term survival in patients with ACHBLF, offering to clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis.

Up-regulation of A20 gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells is associated with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

Aberrant immunity contributes to the pathogenesis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF), and A20 is a newly identified negative regulatory molecule of the immune response. However, no data have been reported for the role of A20 in ACHBLF. This study aimed to investigate A20 mRNA expression in ACHBLF and to determine the potential of A20 as a biomarker for the prognosis of ACHBLF. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used to measure the mRNA expression of A20 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 137 ACHBLF patients, 105 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 35 healthy controls (HCs). A secondary cohort with 37 ACHBLF patients was set up as validation data set. The plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-6 and IL-10 were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the predictive value of A20 for the prognosis of ACHBLF patients. A20 mRNA expression in ACHBLF was significantly higher compared with CHB and HCs. In ACHBLF patients, A20 mRNA was closely associated with total bilirubin, albumin, international normalized ratio, prothrombin time activity and model for end-stage liver disease. Furthermore, A20 mRNA was significantly correlated with IL-6 and IL-10. An optimal cut-off value of 12.32 for A20 mRNA had significant power in discriminating survival or death in ACHBLF patients. In conclusion, our results suggest that the up-regulation of the A20 gene might contribute to the severity of ACHBLF and A20 mRNA level might be a potential predictor for the prognosis of ACHBLF.

Promoter methylation status and expression of PPAR-γ gene are associated with prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPAR-γ) has been demonstrated to be involved in anti-inflammatory reactions, but its role in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is unclear. Therefore, DNA methylation patterns and expression level of PPAR-γ gene were detected in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 81 patients with ACHBLF, 50 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and 30 healthy controls, and the possible role of PPAR-γ in ACHBLF was analyzed. RESULTS: We found that aberrant PPAR-γ promoter methylation was attenuated in ACHBLF patients compared with CHB patients and was responsible for the elevated PPAR-γ expression level, which was negatively correlated with total bilirubin and international normalized ratio. Plasma level of TNF-α and IL-6 in ACHBLF patients were higher than CHB patients and healthy controls and significantly reduced in unmethylated group. ACHBLF patients with PPAR-γ promoter methylation had poorer outcomes than those without. Correspondingly, PPAR-γ messenger RNA (mRNA) level was higher in survivors than non-survivors and gradually increased in survivors with time, while remained low level in non-survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Aberrant promoter methylation decline and PPAR-γ expression rebound occurred in ACHBLF compared with CHB and could improve prognosis of ACHBLF by negatively regulating cytokines.

Conditional survival estimate of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: a dynamic prediction based on a multicenter cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Counseling patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) on their individual risk of short-term mortality is challenging. This study aimed to develop a conditional survival estimate (CSE) for predicting individualized mortality risk in ACHBLF patients. METHODS: We performed a large prospective cohort study of 278 ACHBLF patients from December 2010 to December 2013 at three participating medical centers. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative overall survival (OS). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the risk factors associated with OS. 4-week CSE at "X" week after diagnostic established were calculated as CS4 = OS(X+4)/OS(X). RESULTS: The actual OS at 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 weeks were 80.5%, 71.8%, 69.3%, 66.0% and 63.7%, respectively. Using CSE, the probability of surviving an additional 4 weeks, given that the patient had survived for 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 weeks was 74%, 86%, 92%, 93%, 97%, respectively. Patients with worse prognostic feathers, including MELD > 25, Child grade C, age > 45, HE, INR > 2.5, demonstrated the greatest increase in CSE over time, when compared with the "favorable" one (Δ36% vs. Δ10%; Δ28% vs. Δ16%; Δ29% vs. Δ15%; Δ60% vs. Δ12%; Δ33% vs. Δ12%; all P < 0.001; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This easy-to-use CSE can accurately predict the changing probability of survival over time. It may facilitate risk communication between patients and physicians.

Serum wnt5a is a predictor for the prognosis of acute on chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

OBJECTIVES: To find a biomarker to predict the prognosis of acute on chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). METHODS: Expression gene profiles in wnt pathway were determined in serum from 63 patients with ACHBLF, 60 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy controls (HCs). RESULTS: Serum wnt5a concentration of 1.553 ng/ml showed a poor prognosis with a sensitivity of 69.23% and a specificity of 83.33% in ACHBLF patients. CONCLUSIONS: Serum wnt5a gene expression might be a potential biomarker for predicting the prognosis of ACHBLF.

Aberrant DNA methylation of G-protein-coupled bile acid receptor Gpbar1 predicts prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

The G-protein-coupled bile acid receptor Gpbar1 (TGR5) has been demonstrated to be able to negatively regulate hepatic inflammatory response. In this study, we aimed to determine the methylation status of TGR5 promoter in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) and its predictive value for prognosis. We enrolled 76 consecutive ACHBLF patients, 80 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and 30 healthy controls (HCs). Methylation status of TGR5 promoter in peripheral mononuclear cell (PBMC) was detected by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction (MSP). The mRNA level of TGR5 was determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). We found that the frequency of TGR5 promoter methylation was significantly higher in ACHBLF (35/76, 46.05%) than CHB patients (5/80, 6.25%; χ(2) = 32.38, P < 0.01) and HCs (1/30, 3.33%; χ(2) = 17.50, P < 0.01). TGR5 mRNA level was significantly lower (Z = -9.12, P < 0.01) in participants with aberrant methylation than those without. TGR5 methylation showed a sensitivity of 46.05% (35/76), specificity of 93.75% (75/80), positive predictive value (PPV) of 87.5% (35/40) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 64.66% (75/116) in discriminating ACHBLF from CHB patients. ACHBLF patients with methylated TGR5 showed significantly poor survival than those without (P < 0.01). When used to predict 3-month mortality of ACHBLF, TGR5 methylation [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.75] performed significantly better than model for end-stage liver diseases (MELD) score (AUC = 0.65; P < 0.05). Therefore, our study demonstrated that aberrant TGR5 promoter methylation occurred in ACHBLF and might be a potential prognostic marker for the disease.