Novel Prediction Score for Arterial-Esophageal Fistula in Patients with Esophageal Cancer Bleeding: A Multicenter Study.

PURPOSE: To develop and internally validate a novel prediction score to predict the occurrence of arterial-esophageal fistula (AEF) in esophageal cancer bleeding. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with esophageal cancer bleeding in the emergency department. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of AEF. The patients were randomly divided into a derivation group and a validation group. In the derivation stage, a predictive model was developed using logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, internal validation of the model was conducted in the validation cohort during the validation stage to assess its discrimination ability. RESULTS: A total of 257 patients were enrolled in this study. All participants were randomized to a derivation cohort (n = 155) and a validation cohort (n = 102). AEF occurred in 22 patients (14.2%) in the derivation group and 14 patients (13.7%) in the validation group. A predictive model (HEARTS-Score) comprising five variables (hematemesis, active bleeding, serum creatinine level >1.2 mg/dL, prothrombin time >13 s, and previous stent implantation) was established. The HEARTS-Score demonstrated a high discriminative ability in both the derivation and validation cohorts, with c-statistics of 0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.72-0.92), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: By employing this novel prediction score, clinicians can make more objective risk assessments, optimizing diagnostic strategies and tailoring treatment approaches.

The presence of an asymptomatic aberrant right subclavian artery: A potential risk factor in esophageal surgery?

Bleeding of an aberrant right subclavian artery following transthoracic en bloc esophagectomy and intrathoracic gastric reconstruction is a rare but severe complication in esophageal surgery. Preoperative diagnosis can be achieved by computed tomography or magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). Various treatment options are available; thus, the treatment can be challenging and should be adjusted to the severity of the symptoms. Bleeding of an aberrant right subclavian artery can result from perioperative vascular injury or various postoperative complications. We report about a case of a patient with esophageal cancer and an asymptomatic, simultaneously existing aberrant right subclavian artery. The patient underwent a successful conventional Ivor-Lewis esophageal resection without any life-threatening bleeding. Early detection and intraoperative identification was of major importance for successful surgery.