Degree-day models for predicting adult Delia platura (Diptera: Anthomyiidae) spring flight and first emergence in New York State.

The seedcorn maggot, Delia platura (Meigen), is a pest affecting many crops, including corn. The early spring emergence of adults and belowground seed damage by maggots leave no room for rescue treatments during the short growing season in New York State. Degree-day (DD) models play a crucial role in predicting insect emergence and adult peak activity and are essential for effective pest management. The current D. platura DD model was launched on the Network for Environment and Weather Applications (NEWA) in 2022, using existing scientific literature from other North American regions. The NEWA model predicted adult D. platura first emergence at an average of 471 (39°F) DD in 2022. To gain an accurate and precise understanding of D. platura adult spring emergence and activity, we used interpolated temperature data to calculate the DD for each specific location where adults were captured in the field. DD calculations were performed using the average method, setting a biofix on January 1st and a base temperature of 39°F. In 2023, overwintering adults emerged at an average of 68 DD, and in 2022, adult activity was registered at an average of 282 DD. Accurately predicting the emergence of D. platura could contribute to informing integrated pest management strategies that incorporate timing and cultural practices over chemical solutions to protect crops and the environment.

Insecticide efficacy and emergence timing of the Douglas-fir twig weevil.

The Douglas-fir twig weevil (Cylindrocopturus furnissi Buchanan) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has recently emerged as a significant pest of Christmas trees grown in the Pacific Northwest United States. The larvae girdle and disfigure twigs, which adversely affects tree marketability. Trees produced for export are also routinely destroyed for phytosanitary reasons when C. furnissi is discovered at border crossings. Due to historically being a sporadic and benign pest on planted and natural Douglas-fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii), there is a lack of chemical management options. In laboratory experiments, we assessed the knockdown effects (ability to kill or incapacitate) of 4 insecticides commonly used on Christmas trees: one assay tested knockdown after direct contact for 24 h, and the other assay tested knockdown after being allowed to feed on treated twigs with 2 days, 7 days, and 14 days residuals. Concurrently, we monitored temperature and adult C. furnissi emergence at a noble fir bough farm for 2 years to estimate the ideal degree-day window for applying insecticides. Bifenthrin and esfenvalerate knocked down all weevils on contact within just 4 h, whereas chlorpyrifos and acephate failed to achieve 100% knockdown within 24 h. Only acephate failed to knock down more weevils than the control (water) after feeding on treated twigs, regardless of the insecticide residue age. Degree-day modeling revealed a variable emergence window between the 2 years but 50% of adult emergence occurred between approximately 1,000-1,100 degree days (1st January, 50 °F (10 °C), single sine). Future work should assess the resulting management recommendation: apply bifenthrin or esfenvalerate once annually just after 1,000 growing degree days for 2 or more years prior to harvest.

Impact of climate change on temperature variations and extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites in Chennai, India: implications for its disease transmission potential.

BACKGROUND: The global temperature has significantly risen in the past century. Studies have indicated that higher temperature intensifies malaria transmission in tropical and temperate countries. Temperature fluctuations will have a potential impact on parasite development in the vector Anopheles mosquito. METHODS: Year-long microclimate temperatures were recorded from a malaria-endemic area, Chennai, India, from September 2021 to August 2022. HOBO data loggers were placed in different vector resting sites including indoor and outdoor roof types. Downloaded temperatures were categorised by season, and the mean temperature was compared with data from the same study area recorded from November 2012 to October 2013. The extrinsic incubation period for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax was calculated from longitudinal temperatures recorded during both periods. Vector surveillance was also carried out in the area during the summer season. RESULTS: In general, temperature and daily temperature range (DTR) have increased significantly compared to the 2012-2013 data, especially the DTR of indoor asbestos structures, from 4.30 â„ƒ to 12.62 â„ƒ in 2021-2022, unlike the marginal increase observed in thatched and concrete structures. Likewise, the average DTR of outdoor asbestos structures increased from 5.02 â„ƒ (2012-2013) to 8.76 â„ƒ (2021-2022) although the increase was marginal in thatched structures and, surprisingly, showed no such changes in concrete structures. The key finding of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) is that a decreasing trend was observed in 2021-2022 compared to 2012-2013, mainly in indoor asbestos structures from 7.01 to 6.35 days, which negatively correlated with the current observation of an increase in temperature. Vector surveillance undertaken in the summer season revealed the presence of Anopheles breeding in various habitats. Anopheles stephensi could be collected using CDC light traps along with other mosquito species. CONCLUSION: The microclimate temperature has increased significantly over the years, and mosquitoes are gradually adapting to this rising temperature. Temperature negatively correlates with the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. As the temperature increases, the development of the parasite in An. stephensi will be faster because of a decrease in EIP, thus requiring relatively fewer days, posing a risk for disease transmission and a hindrance to malaria elimination efforts.

Phenology model development for Neodryinus typhlocybae: Evaluation of phenological synchrony with its host, Metcalfa pruinosa.

The invasive species Metcalfa pruinosa has inflicted significant economic losses in various European and Asian regions. To combat this pest, the parasitoid wasp Neodryinus typhlocybae has been effectively introduced in Europe. Despite its success, research on the field occurrence patterns of N. typhlocybae, particularly its phenology, remains scarce. This study aims to develop a degree-day model for predicting the adult emergence of N. typhlocybae from overwintering cocoons and to assess the phenological synchrony between N. typhlocybae adults and the nymphal stages of M. pruinosa in Korea. In this study, we estimated the thermal parameters of N. typhlocybae under field temperatures and six constant temperatures (13.92, 17.71, 18.53, 20.53, 22.78, and 24.03 °C) conditions. The lower developmental temperature was estimated using the values of the coefficient of variation for the cumulative degree days of emerged individual adults. The estimated lower developmental threshold temperature was 12.3 °C. With this developmental threshold, a degree-day model was developed, and this model well-predicted emergence in field conditions. By simulating this developed model with the actual occurrence of the nymphal stages of its host, M. pruinosa, adult wasp emergence was estimated to be 1.5 weeks later than the first instar nymph of the host but faster than other nymphal stages of M. pruinosa. Thus, the findings in this study would be helpful in determining the possibility of establishing N. typhlocybae and improving the management efficiency of M. pruinosa.

Development of a degree-day model to predict the growth of Anopheles stephensi (Diptera: Culicidae): implication for vector control management.

Anopheles stephensi is an efficient vector of malaria parasites in Iran. Despite its importance in malaria transmission, there is a scarcity of accurate predictive models of its rates of development at different temperatures. A laboratory colony of An. stephensi, collected from Bandar Abbas County, southern Iran, was established, and all its developmental stages were maintained in temperature-controlled incubators so that the water temperature set at 5, 8, 10, 12.5, 14, 28, 38, 39.5, 42, and 45(±0.2) °C for different treatments until subsequent adult emergence. The Lower and Upper Developmental Temperatures (LDT and UDT) and the growth degree-day (GDD) were calculated for each development stage. A 12-mo population dynamics survey of the larvae and adults of An. stephensi was performed in 3 malaria-endemic villages (Geno, Hormoodar, and Sarkhoon) of Bandar Abbas County, and the obtained data were matched with the constructed GDD model. Based on the field meteorological and dynamics data, the model was verified in the field and used to determine the appropriate date to start spraying. The LDT was determined to be 8.19, 9.74, 8.42, 5.6, 13.57, and 10.03 °C for egg hatching, first, second, and third ecdysis, pupation, and eclosion events, respectively. The UDT was 38 °C for all developmental stages. The thermal requirement for the development of all immature stages of An stephensi was determined to be 187.7 (±56.3) GDD above the LDT. Therefore, the appropriate date to start residual spraying is when the region's GDD reaches 187.7 (±56.3). Given the climatic conditions in Bandar Abbas County, it is expected that the first activity peak of adult An. stephensi would be in March. Field observations showed that An. stephensi activity starts in February and peaks in March. The GDD model can provide a good estimate for peak An. stephensi activity and indicate the optimal deployment time of residual spraying operations against the multiplication and development of malaria parasites inside the vector.

Field and Laboratory Observations on the Biology of Aceria angustifoliae with Emphasis on Emergence of Overwintering Mites.

Data on the life strategy of A. angustifoliae (population fluctuation in buds and on leaves, emergence and migration to the overwintering sites), as well as its temperature-dependent emergence from overwintering sites at constant temperatures, were determined. The eriophyid mite overwintered into buds and the density of active mites inside them from winter 2017 to spring 2018 was higher than that in winter 2018-spring 2019. In the second half of March 2018 and in winter 2018-spring 2019, the mite density inside the buds decreased gradually with a peak of emergence occurring at the beginning of plant blossoming. Population density on leaves increased in summer, reaching a higher and later peak in 2018, and gradually decreased in autumn with mites migrating to overwintering sites. A lower developmental threshold of 4.5 °C was calculated. About half of the mite population was estimated to emerge from the overwintering sites at an accumulation of degree days ranging, on average, between 85.5 (at 20 °C) and 104.4 (at 10 °C) degree days above the assessed threshold.

Phenological Mapping of Invasive Insects: Decision Support for Surveillance and Management.

Readily accessible and easily understood forecasts of the phenology of invasive insects have the potential to support and improve strategic and tactical decisions for insect surveillance and management. However, most phenological modeling tools developed to date are site-based, meaning that they use data from a weather station to produce forecasts for that single site. Spatial forecasts of phenology, or phenological maps, are more useful for decision-making at area-wide scales, such as counties, states, or entire nations. In this review, we provide a brief history on the development of phenological mapping technologies with a focus on degree-day models and their use as decision support tools for invasive insect species. We compare three different types of phenological maps and provide examples using outputs of web-based platforms that are presently available for real-time mapping of invasive insects for the contiguous United States. Next, we summarize sources of climate data available for real-time mapping, applications of phenological maps, strategies for balancing model complexity and simplicity, data sources and methods for validating spatial phenology models, and potential sources of model error and uncertainty. Lastly, we make suggestions for future research that may improve the quality and utility of phenological maps for invasive insects.

Management Implications for the Nantucket Pine Tip Moth From Temperature-Induced Shifts in Phenology and Voltinism Attributed to Climate Change.

Forest insect pest phenology and infestation pressure may shift as temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, resulting in greater challenges for sustainable forest management . The Nantucket pine tip moth (NPTM) (Rhyacionia frustrana Comstock) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a native forest regeneration pest in the southeastern U.S. with multiple generations per year. Changes in NPTM voltinism may result from temperature-induced shifts in NPTM phenology. Degree-day models have been used to develop optimal spray dates (OSDs) for NPTM. The 2000 Spray Timing Model (STM), based on temperature data from 1960 to 2000, provided generation-specific 5-d OSDs to effectively time applications of contact insecticides. An updated degree-day model, the 2019 STM, is based on temperature data from 2000 to 2019 and was used to detect changes in voltinism as well as shifts in phenology and OSDs. Based on the model, increased voltinism occurred at 6 of the 28 study locations (21%). Changes in voltinism occurred in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Georgia, U.S., with shifts from three to four or four to five generations a year, depending on location. The OSDs from the 2019 STM were compared to the 2000 STM OSDs. Over half (57%) of the OSDs differed by 5-15 d, with the majority (66%) resulting in earlier spray dates. The 2019 STM will help growers adapt NPTM control tactics to temperature-induced phenology shifts. NPTM serves as an example of temperature-induced changes attributed to climate change in a forest insect pest with important implications to forest management.

Combining photoperiod and thermal responses to predict phenological mismatch for introduced insects.

A wide variety of organisms use the regular seasonal changes in photoperiod as a cue to align their life cycles with favorable conditions. Yet the phenological consequences of photoperiodism for organisms exposed to new climates are often overlooked. We present a conceptual approach and phenology model that maps voltinism (generations per year) and the degree of phenological mismatch that can arise when organisms with a short-day diapause response are introduced to new regions or are otherwise exposed to new climates. Our degree-day-based model combines continent-wide spatialized daily climate data, calculated date-specific and latitude-specific day lengths, and experimentally determined developmental responses to both photoperiod and temperature. Using the case of the knotweed psyllid Aphalara itadori, a new biological control agent being introduced from Japan to North America and Europe to control an invasive weed, we show how incorporating a short-day diapause response will result in geographic patterns of attempted voltinism that are strikingly different from the potential number of generations based on degree-days alone. The difference between the attempted and potential generations represents a quantitative measure of phenological mismatch between diapause timing and the end of the growing season. We conclude that insects moved from lower to higher latitudes (or to cooler climates) will tend to diapause too late, potentially resulting in high mortality from inclement weather, and those moved from higher to lower latitude (to warmer climates) may be prone to diapausing too early, therefore not fully exploiting the growing season and/or suffering from insufficient reserves for the longer duration in diapause. Mapped output reveals a central region with good phenology match that shifts north or south depending on the geographic source of the insect and its corresponding critical photoperiod for diapause. These results have direct relevance for efforts to establish populations of classical biocontrol agents. More generally, our approach and model could be applied to a wide variety of photoperiod- and temperature-sensitive organisms that are exposed to changes in climate, including resident and invasive agricultural pests and species of conservation concern.

Predicting the Risk of Tart Cherry (Prunus cerasus) Infestation by Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae).

Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura, 1931) (Diptera: Drosophilidae) is a vinegar fly native to East Asia that has rapidly expanded its range to become a pest of sweet cherry (Prunus avium, L. 1753 [Rosales: Rosaceae]) and tart cherry (P. cerasus, L. 1753) in North America and Europe. The goal of the research presented herein was to improve the decision-making process for managing D. suzukii in tart cherry. Knowing that D. suzukii females are attracted to ripening fruit, we measured fruit infestation by D. suzukii as it relates to an existing fruit development model that uses full bloom as a biofix, calculating accumulated growing degree days (GDD) with a lower threshold of 4°C. Increasing larval infestation was highly correlated with fruit development expressed as GDD post-bloom with very few larvae developing in fruit subjected to no-choice assays prior to 530 GDD (base 4°C) and no larvae detected in naturally infested fruit prior to 800 GDD. Our findings provide the first quantification of the relationship between fruit development and D. suzukii infestation that allows for pinpointing the timing of fruit susceptibility and that could be used as the basis for a more sustainable management program for this pest in tart cherry orchards.

Development of Azalea Lace Bug, Stephanitis pyrioides, on Susceptible and Resistant Rhododendron species in Western Washington.

The invasive azalea lace bug, Stephanitis pyrioides (Scott) (Tingidae: Hemiptera), is an important pest of Rhododendron (L.) (Ericales: Ericaceae). Feeding by nymphs and adults removes chlorophyll, reduces rates of photosynthesis and transpiration, and causes leaf stippling, which reduces the aesthetic value of infested plants. Rhododendron spp. are a major component of landscapes in the Pacific Northwest. Previous studies on the seasonality of S. pyrioides in North America are largely from the southeastern United States, which could have limited applicability in the Pacific Northwest. To quantify S. pyrioides seasonality in western Washington, we sampled ~200 leaves from 18 Rhododendron plants 1-2 times per wk from April to October over 2 yr, and microscopically counted the number of eggs, early instars, late instars, and adults. We developed a degree-day model for first generation S. pyrioides, which we used to estimate that S. pyrioides undergoes two full and a partial third generation in western Washington. Our model estimates 5 and 50% early instar occurrence, after hatching from overwintering eggs, at 69 and 171 accumulated degree-days from 1 January, respectively, when using a base threshold of 10.2°, which can be used to optimize the timing of management decisions. We also observed faster development and adult emergence when S. pyrioides nymphs feed on susceptible host plants relative to more resistant host plants, which may influence the timing of management decisions and potentially increase the probability of a full third generation. This research enhances our knowledge of an emerging invasive species in the Pacific Northwest.

Dynamic simulation of nutrient distribution in lakes during ice cover growth and ablation.

Nutrient transport in seasonally ice-covered lakes is an important factor affecting spring algal blooms in eutrophic waters; because phase changes during the ice growth process redistribute the nutrients. In this study, nutrient transport under static conditions was simulated by using two ice thickness models in combination with an indoor freezing experiment under different segregation coefficient conditions for nutrients. A real-time prediction model for nutrient and pollutant concentrations in ice-covered lakes was established to explore the impact of the ice-on period in eutrophic shallow lakes. The results demonstrated that the empirical degree-day model and the high-resolution thermodynamic snow and sea-ice model (HIGHTSI) could both be used to simulate lake ice thickness. The empirical degree-day model performed better at predicting the maximum ice thickness (measured thickness 0.22-0.55 m; simulated thickness 0.48 m), whereas the HIGHTSI model was more accurate when estimating the mean thickness (5-6% error). When simulating ice growth, the HIGHTSI model considered more meteorological factors impacting ice cover ablation; hence, it performed better during the ablation stage relative to the empirical degree-day model. Two non-dynamic nutrient transport models were developed by combining the segregation coefficient model and the ice thickness prediction model. The HIGHTSI nutrient transport model can be used to predict real-time changes in nutrient concentrations under ice cover, and the degree-day model can be used to predict changes in the lake water ecosystem.

The hotter the better? Climate change and voltinism of Spodoptera eridania estimated with different methods.

Substantial increases in global temperature are projected for the coming decades due to climate change. Considering that temperature has a strong influence on insect voltinism (i.e., number of generations per year), climate change may affect the population growth of insects, with potential consequences for food production. The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a multivoltine species native to the American tropics that causes severe damage to several crops. In this context, this study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the voltinism of S. eridania in southern Brazil. Current and future daily temperature data were combined with non-linear and degree-day models to estimate the voltinism of this pest. Under current climate conditions, the voltinism of S. eridania ranged from 2.9 to 9.2 generations, with fewer cohorts in colder regions and more in warmer ones. A higher number of generations was predicted for the future climate scenarios evaluated, reaching up to 12.1 annual generations in certain regions by 2070. Most of the variation in voltinism was explained by location (87.7%) and by the interaction between location and mathematical model (3.0%). The degree-day model estimated an increase in the number of generations in the entire study area, while the non-linear model predicted a decrease in voltinism in the warmer regions under future climate change scenarios. Given these differences between the predictions provided by degree-day and non-linear models, the selection of the best method to be used in climate change studies should be carried out carefully, considering how species respond to temperature. A considerable increase in the number of generations of S. eridania was projected for most of the study area under the climate change scenarios evaluated, suggesting a possible rise in pest incidence levels in the coming decades.

Timing the Implementation of Cultural Practices for Spissistilus festinus (Hemiptera: Membracidae) in California Vineyards Using a Stage-Structured Degree-Day Model.

The three-cornered alfalfa hopper, Spissistilus festinus (Say), was shown to transmit Grapevine red blotch virus (GRBV), the causative agent for Grapevine red blotch disease, in a greenhouse study on grapes. GRBV is a major concern of wine grape growers due to its economic impact on wine quality. Plants in the family Fabaceae are preferred hosts of S. festinus and are commonly planted as cover crops or present in a vineyard's native vegetation. In late winter, during grapevine dormancy, S. festinus migrate into vineyards to feed and reproduce on these cover crop and weed hosts. Tilling vineyard floor vegetation provides growers an opportunity to disrupt the life cycle of early instars that are relatively immobile, reducing the S. festinus first-generation population. Nymphal presence is difficult to detect. First through third instars were not detected in sweep net samples in a 2-yr weekly sampling study, whereas fourth and fifth instars were first found on the same sample date as emerging adults. A degree-day model was developed and successfully predicted when early S. festinus instars are present in the vineyard to aid in exploiting the time period when S. festinus is most susceptible to cultural control measures.

Effects of Temperatures on Immature Development and Survival of the Invasive Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae).

Bagrada hilaris (Burmeister) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) is a non-native stink bug that feeds primarily on cole crops and wild mustards. Its invasion into desert agriculture in California and Arizona presents a conundrum between rapid pest development at warm temperatures and severe damage to cool season crops. In this study, the development and survival of B. hilaris were determined at nine constant temperatures (ranging from 20-42°C) when reared on organically grown broccoli florets. Egg hatching was greatly delayed at 20°C, and first instar nymphs did not survive at this temperature. No eggs hatched at 42°C. The highest survival rates (70.0-86.7%) of B. hilaris were observed at temperatures ranging from 24 to 35°C. The total developmental rate of B. hilaris from egg to adult increased from 0.027 to 0.066/d from 24 to 35°C, and then slightly dropped to 0.064/d at 39°C. Based on the linear model, B. hilaris requires 285.4 degree-days to complete its development. The Briere 1 model predicted the lower and upper temperature thresholds as 16.7 and 42.7°C, respectively. The optimal temperature for development (TOpt) was estimated as 36°C. According to the results, B. hilaris is well adapted to warm conditions, and temperatures of 33-39°C are well suited for B. hilaris development. Information from this study helps explain the rapid range expansion of B. hilaris across the southern United States and will be instrumental in predicting future expansion across the rest of the country and in other parts of the world. The relationship between thermal thresholds and invasion dynamics of this pest are discussed.

Life History of Parthenolecanium spp. (Hemiptera: Coccidae) in Urban Landscapes of the Southeastern United States.

This study was conducted to better understand the life history of Parthenolecanium corni (Bouché) and Parthenolecanium quercifex (Fitch) (Hemiptera: Coccidae), and to develop degree-day models for crawler emergence of the two soft scale species in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Both species were univoltine in the southeastern United States. In South Carolina, eggs hatched from mid-April to early June; second instars began to appear in September and migrated to twigs to overwinter in October; and third instars and adults appeared in mid-March to early April. Each parthenogenetic female produced on average 1,026 ± 52 eggs. Fecundity was positively correlated to the fresh weight, length, width, and height of gravid females. Gross reproductive rate (GRR) was 695.98 ± 79.34 ♀/♀, net reproductive rate (Rº) was 126.36 ± 19.03 ♀/♀, mean generation time (TG) was 52.61 ± 0.05 wk, intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.04 ♀/♀/wk, and finite rate of increase (λ) was 1.04 times per week. Crawlers first occurred across Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia in 2011-2013 when 524-596 Celsius-degree-days (DDC) had been accumulated with the single sine estimation method, or 411-479 DDC with the simple average method, at the base temperature of 12.8 °C and the start date of 1 January. These regional models accurately predicted the date of crawler emergence within 1 wk of the actual emergence in 2014.

Phenology of brown marmorated stink bug described using female reproductive development.

Temperature-based degree-day models describe insect seasonality and to predict key phenological events. We expand on the use of a temperature-based process defining timing of reproduction through the incorporation of female reproductive physiology for the invasive pentatomid species Halyomorpha halys, the brown marmorated stink bug. A five-stage ranking system based on ovary development was able to distinguish between the reproductive statuses of field-collected females. Application of this ranking method described aspects of H. halys' seasonality, overwintering biology, and phenology across geographic locations. Female H. halys were collected in the US from NJ, WV, NC, OR, and two sites in PA in 2006-2008 (Allentown, PA only) and 2012-2014. Results identify that H. halys enters reproductive diapause in temperate locations in the fall and that a delay occurs in developmental maturity after diapause termination in the spring. Modification of the Snyder method to identify biofix determined 12.7-hr photoperiod as the best fit to define initiation of reproduction in the spring. Applying the biofix, we demonstrated significant differences between locations for the rate at which the overwintering generation transition into reproductive status and the factors contributing to this difference require further study. For example, after including abiotic variables influencing development such as temperature and photoperiod (critical diapause cue), reproduction occurred earlier in OR and for an extended period in NJ. This data describe a method to investigate insect seasonality by incorporating physiological development across multiple regions that can clarify phenology for insects with overlapping generations.

A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (p<0.001; R2=0.71) was found indicating the model was effective for New Zealand. A linear regression for risk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (p<0.05) than all other regions with Northland ranked second highest. Notable predicted changes in F. hepatica infection risk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change.

What Azure blues occur in Canada? A re-assessment of Celastrina Tutt species (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae).

The identity of Celastrina species in eastern Canada is reviewed based on larval host plants, phenology, adult phenotypes, mtDNA barcodes and re-assessment of published data. The status of the Cherry Gall Azure (Celastrina serotina Pavulaan & Wright) as a distinct species in Canada is not supported by any dataset, and is removed from the Canadian fauna. Previous records of this taxon are re-identified as Celastrina lucia (Kirby) and Celastrina neglecta (Edwards). Evidence is presented that both Celastrina lucia and Celastrina neglecta have a second, summer-flying generation in parts of Canada. The summer generation of Celastrina lucia has previously been misidentified as Celastrina neglecta, which differs in phenology, adult phenotype and larval hosts from summer Celastrina lucia. DNA barcodes are highly conserved among at least three North American Celastrina species, and provide no taxonomic information. Celastrina neglecta has a Canadian distribution restricted to southern Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and easternmost Alberta. The discovery of museum specimens of Celastrina ladon (Cramer) from southernmost Ontario represents a new species for the Canadian butterfly fauna, which is in need of conservation status assessment.

Temperature-Mediated Growth Thresholds of Acrobasis vaccinii (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae).

Degree-day models link ambient temperature to the development of insects, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by quantifying and predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis vaccinii Riley (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Control of this species is often complicated by the fact that the larvae feed entirely within the fruit. Timing of control tactics, therefore, is critical and generally targets the adult and egg stages. However, the commencement of oviposition and egg hatch are extremely difficult to track empirically, forcing pest management strategies to rely on proxy events that are more apparent but less informative as indicators of cranberry fruitworm egg presence. This research provides the upper and lower temperature-mediated growth thresholds of this pest, which represents the first steps toward the creation of a degree-day model. Using field-collected A. vaccinii, we reared the larvae within cranberry fruit and monitored larval growth at nine different constant temperatures. We determined the average growth rate at each temperature and modeled growth rates as a function of temperature. We then calculated the precise upper and lower developmental temperature thresholds of this species. Future work will be able to use these thresholds to generate degree-day accumulations that correspond to phenological events in the field, providing a powerful predictive tool for pest management in cranberry production.