National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2024.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2024 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2024 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2024 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2023, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 13.6% compared to 2022, for a total of $722.5 billion. Utilization (a 6.5% increase), new drugs (a 4.2% increase) and price (a 2.9% increase) drove this increase. Semaglutide was the top drug in 2023, followed by adalimumab and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.1 billion (a 1.1% decrease) and $135.7 billion (a 15.0% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, increased utilization drove growth, with a small impact from price and new products. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led the decrease in expenditures, with price and new drugs modestly contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2024. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2024, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 10.0% to 12.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate an 11.0% to 13.0% increase and a 0% to 2.0% increase, respectively, compared to 2023. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2023.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2023 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2023 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, diabetes medications, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2023 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2022, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 9.4% compared to 2021, for a total of $633.5 billion. Utilization (a 5.9% increase), price (a 1.7% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top-selling drug in 2022, followed by semaglutide and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.2 billion (a 5.9% decrease) and $116.9 billion (a 10.4% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with a small impact from price changes. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led to a decrease in expenditures, with price changes and new drugs contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending have been or are expected to be approved in 2023. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2023, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 6.0% to 8.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 8.0% to 10.0% and 1.0% to 3.0%, respectively, compared to 2022. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Impact of National Centralized Drug Procurement Policy on Antiviral Utilization and Expenditure for Hepatitis B in China.

Background and Aims: The National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) policy was launched in mainland China in April 2019, with entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) being included in the procurement list. We conducted the current study to investigate the impact of the NCDP policy on the utilization and expenditures of antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in China. Methods: Procurement records, including monthly purchase volume, expenditure, and price of nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs), were derived from the National Healthcare Security Administration from April 2018 to March 2021. The changes in volumes and expenditures of the first-line NAs and bid-winning products were calculated. The effects of price, volume, and structure related to drug expenditure were calculated by the Addis and Magrini (AM) Index System Analysis. Results: The purchase volume of NAs significantly increased from 134.3 to 318.3 million DDDs, whereas the expenditure sharply decreased from 1,623.41 to 490.43 million renminbi (RMB) or 241.94 to 73.09 million US dollars (USD). The proportions of first-line NAs rose from 72.51% (ETV: 69.00%, TDF: 3.51%) to 94.97% (ETV: 77.42%, TDF: 17.55%). AM analysis showed that the NCDP policy decreased the expenditure of all NAs (S=0.91) but increased that of the first-line NAs in the bid-winning list (S=1.13). Assuming the population size of CHB patients remains stable and a compliance rate of ≥75%, the proportion of CHB patients receiving first-line antiviral therapy would increase from 6.36-8.48% to 11.56-15.41%. Conclusions: The implementation of the NCDP policy significantly increased the utilization of first-line NAs for CHB patients at a lower expenditure. The findings provided evidence for optimizing antiviral therapy strategy and allocating medical resources in China.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2022.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2022 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2022 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2022 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2021, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 7.7% compared to 2020, for a total of $576.9 billion. Utilization (a 4.8% increase), price (a 1.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.1% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top drug in terms of overall expenditures in 2021, followed by apixaban and dulaglutide. Drug expenditures were $39.6 billion (a 8.4% increase) and $105.0 billion (a 7.7% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and in clinics, respectively. In clinics and hospitals, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with decreasing prices for both sectors acting as an expense restraint. Several new drugs that are likely to influence spending are expected to be approved in 2022. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2022, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7.0% to 9.0% and 3.0% to 5.0%, respectively, compared to 2021. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Impact of the National Centralized Drug Procurement Policy (4 + 7 policy) on the drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments in a large tertiary level-A hospital in China: A single centre, interrupted time series.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: Like many countries in the world, China is also facing growing drug expenditures year by year. In particular, the rising cost of prescription drugs has been one of the critical factors leading to the serious burden on health insurance programs. The high cost of prescription drugs not only threatens the health budget but also limits the nation's investment in other public sectors. China implemented the National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) policy, also known as the "4 + 7" policy, in tertiary hospitals in various provinces and cities across the country on 18 December 2019, aiming to lessen personal and national health insurance burdens by reducing drug procurement prices. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the implementation of the NCDP policy on the drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments and on national health insurance expenditures. METHODS: This study adopts interrupted time series (ITS) to evaluate the impact of China's implementation of the NCDP policy on the drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments in a tertiary hospital. The NCDP policy was officially implemented on 18 December 2019. A segmented regression model is utilized to analyse the average monthly drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments from January 2018 to June 2021, including the average monthly per-visit drug expenditures of all patients and the average monthly per-visit drug expenditures of patients who paid for drugs with health insurance and those who did not use health insurance. RESULTS: After the implementation of the NCDP policy, the overall average monthly per-visit drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments were immediately reduced by 233.954 CNY (p < 0.01). Compared with the continued downward trend for drug expenditures before the implementation of the NCDP policy, the long-term trend after policy implementation was not obvious (p = 0.051973>0.05). Similarly, the average monthly per-visit drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments who use health insurance to procure drugs also immediately decreased by 505.287 CNY (p < 0.01), but the long-term trends before (p = 0.469>0.05) and after policy implementation (p = 0.51>0.05) did not exhibit obvious change. For the average monthly per-visit drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments who did not use health insurance, the implementation of the NCDP policy did not produce an immediate reduction in drug expenditures (p = 0.3603>0.05). Although the average monthly per-visit drug expenditures decreased by 9.078 CNY (p < 0.01) before policy implementation, this trend ended after the policy was implemented (p = 0.0735>0.05), and no other changes were triggered. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: This study reviews the data for a period of time before and after the implementation of the NCDP policy. The policy is shown to significantly decrease the average monthly per-visit drug expenditures of patients treated in outpatient and emergency departments.

Evaluation of Academic Detailing to Impact Pharmacists' Compliance with an Outpatient Pharmacy Partial Fill Policy.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacists' compliance with a medication partial fill policy at a Veterans Affairs healthcare system has been underwhelming. Academic detailing, an educational outreach approach conducted by trained health care professionals to improve patient care, is an attractive method for improving pharmacists' compliance with the policy. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of academic detailing on pharmacists' compliance with the partial fill policy. METHODS: A pre-post analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of academic detailing outreach visits on pharmacists' compliance with the partial fill policy. Data collection included all partial fill medication orders verified during the study duration. Student's t-test was used to analyze the change in the day supply of partial fills following the academic detailing intervention. Total partial fill drug expense during the pre- and post-intervention phases was calculated as drug cost plus material cost for each partial fill. RESULTS: A total of 36 (97.3%) pharmacists received an academic detailing outreach visit. Total percentage of partial fills limited to a 7-day supply was significantly increased following academic detailing outreach visits (49.2% pre-intervention vs. 84.2% post-intervention, p-value <0.001). Total partial fill drug expense decreased from $12,144.42 to $9,713.50. Percentage of partial fills limited to a 7-day supply remained significant during the 6-month follow-up period (p-value = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Academic detailing is an effective method for improving pharmacists' compliance with an outpatient pharmacy partial fill policy and decreasing total partial fill drug expense for the pharmacy department.

The Impacts of National Centralized Drug Procurement Policy on Drug Utilization and Drug Expenditures: The Case of Shenzhen, China.

In 2019, the Chinese government implemented the first round of the National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) pilot (so-called "4 + 7" policy) in mainland China, in which 25 drugs were included. We conducted this study to examine the impacts of NCDP policy on drug utilization and expenditures, and to clarify the main factors contributing to drug expenditure changes. This study used drug purchasing order data from the Centralized Drug Procurement Survey in Shenzhen 2019. Drugs related to the "4 + 7" policy were selected as study samples, including 23 "4 + 7" policy-related varieties and 15 basic alternative drugs. Driving factors for drug expenditures changes were analyzed using A.M. index system analysis (Addis A. & Magrini N.' method). After the implementation of the NCDP policy, the volume of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties increased by 73.8%, among which winning products jumped by 1638.2% and non-winning products dropped by 70.8%; the expenditures of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties decreased by 36.9%. Structure effects (0.47) and price effects (0.78) negatively contributed to the increase in drug expenditures of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties, while volume effects (1.73) had positive influence. NCDP policy successfully decreased drug expenditures of "4 + 7" policy-related varieties with structure effects playing a leading role. However, total drug expenditures were not effectively controlled due to the increasing use of alternative drugs.

It's Time to Finally Kill the Zombies Comment on "Universal Pharmacare in Canada".

The movement for a national pharmacare plan in Canada is growing, but at the same time the multinational pharmaceutical companies and their supporters are critical of such a move. The three major arguments that they make are that all that is needed is to "fill in the gaps," ie, cover those who currently are uninsured or underinsured, that private drug plans are superior to public ones because they cover a larger number of drugs and that Canada cannot afford pharmacare. This commentary examines each of these arguments and makes the case that none of them is valid and that it is time to get on with implementing pharmacare.

Impact of 'Chief-Pharmacist System' on drug expenditures and rational drug use.

Background Over the last few years, pharmacists in China have been searching for effective strategies to expand their roles in pharmaceutical care. In September 2012, the Beijing Chaoyang Hospital was the first in China to establish the Chief-Pharmacist System aimed to let pharmacists be a responsible part of the multi-disciplinary care team. Objective To describe the Chief-Pharmacist System and explore its impact on drug expenditures and rational drug use. Setting A tertiary hospital in Beijing, China. Method Chief-Pharmacist System oriented specific measures were implemented and evaluated. Data on medical services quantity, quality and drug expenses during the periods of pre-implementation (from September 1, 2011 to August 31, 2012) and post implementation (from September 1, 2012 to August 31, 2016) were collected. Main outcome measure Healthcare quality indicators, drug expenditures, selected drug use indicators of outpatient and antibiotic use. Results With the implementation of the Chief-Pharmacist System and the participation of pharmacists in pharmaceutical care, drug expenses were reduced significantly. The total drug expenses, outpatient drug expenses per visit and inpatient drug expenses per admission decreased by an average of US $34.3 million, US $8.9 and US $ 303.9, respectively, compared to the pre-implementation period. Meanwhile, selected drug use indicators in post-implementation period were significantly improved. All results were achieved without sacrificing clinical quality and quantity. Conclusion The study illustrates that the Chief-Pharmacist System achieves substantial reductions in drug expenditures and promotion of rational drug use. It provides a model for other hospitals in China and other low- and middle-income countries.

Financial incentives and physician prescription behavior: Evidence from dispensing regulations.

In many health care markets, physicians can respond to changes in reimbursement schemes by changing the volume (volume response) and the composition of services provided (substitution response). We examine the relative importance of these two behavioral responses in the context of physician drug dispensing in Switzerland. We find that dispensing increases drug costs by 52% for general practitioners and 56% for specialists. This increase is mainly due to a volume increase. The substitution response is negative on average, but not significantly different from zero for large parts of the distribution. In addition, our results reveal substantial effect heterogeneity.

Easy cuts, easy rebound: Drug expenditures with massive price cuts in Korea.

BACKGROUNDS: Since 2012, the Korean government has introduced 46.5% price cut for off-patent medicines in order to reign everescalating drug expenditure. This study sought to appraise the impact of the price cut measure (in the context of Korean National Health Insurance system). METHODS: We employed Korean National Health Insurance database from January 2007 until December 2016 for 120 month period. An interrupted time series analysis with segmented regression analysis was conducted to estimate the impact of price cut on overall drug spending. RESULTS: Drug spending significantly dropped with the price cut by 186.22 billlion Korean Won (KRW) (p < 0.0001) and the trend after the price cut has also significantly decreased by 1.33 billion KRW (p = 0.002). However, it was predicted that total expenditures showed an increasing trend and bounced back to the original level. Quantity prescribed had no significance with the price cut. Unit price had a substantial drop (ß = -41.68, p < 0.0001) with the price-cut, but the trend after the intervention has increased (ß = 0.16, p = 0.656) with no significance. CONCLUSIONS: Although the price cut has successfully countered the everescalating pharmaceutical expenditures in Korea, the impact was temporary. A lack of demand-side measures resulted in an ineffectiveness and unsustainability of policy effect. Thus, more aggressive demand-side measures should be introduced in the Korean context,and both the demand and supply-sides should be balanced.

Expenditures on Oncology Drugs and Cancer Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio in Central and Eastern Europe.

BACKGROUND: There is a steady decline in cancer mortality in Western Europe (WE), but this trend is not so obvious in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). One of the largest discrepancies between WE and CEE is the level of investment in cancer care. The objective of our analysis was to examine the correlation between mortality-to-incidence (M/I) ratio and expenditures on oncology drugs in CEE and WE. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis was done on publicly available data. Data on expenditures for oncology drugs were obtained from QuintilesIMS, and data on M/I ratio from Globocan. The main outcome was mortality-to-incidence ratio, and the primary analysis was performed by Spearman's rank correlation. RESULTS: There is a large discrepancy in expenditure on oncology drugs per cancer case between WE and CEE, and within CEE. Average expenditure on oncology drugs per capita as well as per new cancer case was 2.5 times higher in WE than in CEE. Availability of oncology drugs was highest in Germany (100%), relatively similar in WE (average of 91%), but in CEE it ranged from 37% to 86%, with an average of 70%. Annual expenditures on all oncology drugs per new cancer case was significantly negatively correlated with the M/I ratio (Spearman's ρ = -0.90, p < .001). CONCLUSION: There is a financial threshold for oncology drugs per cancer case needed to increase survival. Based on significantly lower expenditures for oncology drugs in CEE in comparison with WE, more investment for drugs as well as better, more organized, value- oriented consumption is needed. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Cancer is not treated equally successfully in Western Europe (WE) and in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This study showed that success in treatment of cancer is associated with the amount of money invested in oncology drugs. CEE countries spend on average 2.5 times less than WE countries for oncology drugs per new cancer case. These findings should be used by health care providers and oncologists struggling for more resources and better, more organized, evidence-based allocation of these resources as well as better oncology outcomes.

Growth of diabetes drug expenditure decomposed-A nationwide analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to quantify different factors underlying the growth of diabetes drug expenditure in Finland. METHODS: Data representing purchases of antidiabetic agents between 2003 and 2015 were extracted from a nationwide prescription register. By using Fisher's Ideal Indexes, the per capita expenditure growth for both insulins and non-insulin antidiabetic agents was decomposed into six different determinants: purchase volume, purchase size, switches between therapeutic classes, switches within therapeutic classes, unit costs and switches to generic alternatives. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2015, the per capita expenditure on insulins increased by €8.64 and on non-insulins by €13.73. For insulins, holding other factors constant, change in the number of purchases represented a €4.67 increase in expenditure, change in the size of purchases a €4.33 increase and switches between therapeutic classes a €4.07 increase. For non-insulins, change in the number of purchases represented a €10.22 increase in expenditure and switches between therapeutic classes, a €10.17 increase. Changes in purchase size increased the non-insulin per capita expenditure by €1.48. For both insulins and non-insulins, changes in prices and product level switches had decreasing effects on expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: The main drivers of the growth in diabetes drug expenditure were volume growth and switches to newer and more expensive drugs. Price changes, however, had a decreasing effect on the overall diabetes drug expenditure.

Reference pricing with endogenous generic entry.

Reference pricing intends to reduce pharmaceutical expenditures by increasing demand elasticity and stimulating generic competition. We develop a novel model where a brand-name producer competes in prices with several generics producers in a market with brand-biased and brand-neutral consumers. Comparing with coinsurance, we show that reference pricing, contrary to policy makers' intentions, discourages generic entry, as it induces the brand-name producer to price more aggressively. Thus, the net effect of reference pricing on drug prices is ambiguous, implying that reference pricing can be counterproductive in reducing expenditures. However, under price regulation, we show that reference pricing may stimulate generic entry, since a binding price cap weakens the aggressive price response by the brand-name producer. This may explain mixed empirical results on the competitive effects of reference pricing. Finally, we show that reference pricing may be welfare improving when accounting for brand preferences despite its adverse effects on entry and prices.

Does Physician Dispensing Increase Drug Expenditures? Empirical Evidence from Switzerland.

This paper analyzes whether the opportunity for physicians to dispense drugs increases healthcare expenditures. We study the case of Switzerland, where dispensing physicians face financial incentives to overprescribe and sell more expensive pharmaceuticals. Using comprehensive physician-level data, we exploit the regional variation in the dispensing regime to estimate causal effects. The empirical strategy consists of a doubly-robust estimation that combines inverse probability weighting with regression. Our main finding suggests that dispensing leads to higher drug costs on the order of 34% per patient.

Effects of pharmaceutical cost containment policies on doctors' prescribing behavior: Focus on antibiotics.

OBJECTIVES: We analyzed the effect of the outpatient prescription incentive program and price cuts of listed medicines in South Korea on prescription drug expenditures and prescription behaviors, focusing on antibiotics for the most common infectious diseases. METHODS: We used the National Health Insurance claims data from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2012. For 1625 primary clinics randomly sampled, we included all claims with principal diagnoses of acute upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs, J00-J06), acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs, J20-J22), or otitis media (H65, H66). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Pharmaceutical spending per claim dropped immediately after the outpatient prescription incentive program only for otitis media (adults), but the secular trend shifted downward after the incentive program for all target diseases. The incentive program lowered the trend of antibiotic prescribing rate in otitis media (adults). The program was associated with an increase of the number of antibiotics prescribed in URTI (adults) and LRTI (children) and decrease in otitis media (adults). The broad markdown of drug prices reduced pharmaceutical expenditures immediately for all diseases, but without lasting effect. CONCLUSION: The direct financial incentives to physicians to reduce in prescription spending had the intended effect over time and can be an important tool to improve pharmaceutical spending management.