Birds influence vegetation coverage and structure on sandy biogeomorphic islands in the Dutch Wadden Sea.

Small uninhabited islands form important roosting and breeding habitats for many coastal birds. Previous studies have demonstrated that guano can promote ecosystem productivity and functionality on island ecosystems. Here, we assess the role of external nutrient input by coastal birds on the vegetation structure and coverage on sandy biogeomorphic islands, where island-forming processes depend on vegetation-sedimentation feedbacks. As a first step, we investigated whether breeding birds affect vegetation productivity on sandy back-barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. Using a combination of bird observations and plant stable isotope (δ15N) analyses, we demonstrate that (i) breeding birds transport large quantities of nutrients via their faecal outputs to these islands annually and that (ii) this external nitrogen source influences vegetation development on these sandy, nutrient-limited, islands. Based on these results we discuss how this avian nutrient pump could impact island development and habitat suitability for coastal birds and discuss future directions for research. In general, we conclude that avian subsidies have the potential to affect both the ecological and biogeomorphic functioning of coastal soft-sediment systems. However, the strength and scale of especially these biogeomorphic interactions are not fully understood. For the conservation of both threatened coastal birds and sandy back-barrier islands and the design of appropriate management strategies, we argue that three-way interactions between birds, vegetation and sandy island morphodynamics need to be further elucidated.

Crop booms as regime shifts.

A crop boom is a sudden, nonlinear and intense expansion of a new crop. Despite their large impacts, boom-bust dynamics are not well understood; booms are largely unpredictable and difficult to steer once they unfold. Based on the striking resemblances between land regime shifts and crop booms, we apply complex systems theory, highlighting the potential for regime shifts, to provide new insights about crop boom dynamics. We analyse qualitative and quantitative data of rubber and banana plantation expansion in two forest frontier regions of northern Laos. We show that preconditions, including previous booms, explain the occurrence (why) of booms, and triggers like policy and market changes explain their timing (when). Yet, the most important features of booms, their intensity and nonlinearity (how), strongly depended on internal self-reinforcing feedbacks. We identify built-in feedbacks (neighbourhood effects and imitation) and emergent feedbacks (land rush) and show that they were social in nature, multi-scale from plot to region and subject to thresholds. We suggest that these are regular features of booms and propose a definition and causal-mechanistic explanation of crop booms, examining the overlap between booms and regime shifts and the role of frontiers. We then identify opportunities for management interventions before, during and after booms.

Two sub-annual timescales and coupling modes for terrestrial water and carbon cycles.

To bridge the knowledge gap between (a) our (instantaneous-to-seasonal-scale) process understanding of plants and water and (b) our projections of long-term coupled feedbacks between the terrestrial water and carbon cycles, we must uncover what the dominant dynamics are linking fluxes of water and carbon. This study uses the simplest empirical dynamical systems models-two-dimensional linear models-and observation-based data from satellites, eddy covariance towers, weather stations, and machine-learning-derived products to determine the dominant sub-annual timescales coupling carbon uptake and (normalized) evaporation fluxes. We find two dominant modes across the Contiguous United States: (1) a negative correlation timescale on the order of a few days during which landscapes dry after precipitation and plants increase their carbon uptake through photosynthetic upregulation. (2) A slow, seasonal-scale positive covariation through which landscape drying leads to decreased growth and carbon uptake. The slow (positively correlated) process dominates the joint distribution of local water and carbon variables, leading to similar behaviors across space, biomes, and climate regions. We propose that vegetation cover/leaf area variables link this behavior across space, leading to strong emergent spatial patterns of water/carbon coupling in the mean. The spatial pattern of local temporal dynamics-positively sloped tangent lines to a convex long-term mean-state curve-is surprisingly strong, and can serve as a benchmark for coupled Earth System Models. We show that many such models do not represent this emergent mean-state pattern, and hypothesize that this may be due to lack of water-carbon feedbacks at daily scales.

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change.

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

La viabilidad dinámica de resistir (R), aceptar (A) o dirigir (D) el cambio ecológico Resumen Las transformaciones ecológicas ocurren por el cambio climático, lo que representa un reto para los enfoques tradicionales para decidir en torno a la gestión de tierras. El marco resistir­aceptar­dirigir (RAD) ayuda a los gestores a considerar cómo responder a este reto. Analizamos cómo la viabilidad de las opciones para resistir, aceptar y dirigir cambia de manera compleja y dinámica con el tiempo. Consideramos cuatro tipos distintos de viabilidad: regulatoria, económica, pública y de organización. Nuestro comentario está basado en la revisión bibliográfica y los ejemplos que existen, pero por necesidad tiene elementos especulativos ya que la evidencia empírica sobre esta estrategia emergente de gestión es escasa. Esperamos que las estrategias de resistir se vuelvan menos viables con el tiempo conforme los gestores encuentren situaciones en las que resistir no es viable de forma ecológica, económica, pública o por regulación. Al igual esperamos que cada vez más los marcos regulatorios permitan su uso, si el costo disminuye, y si el público los acepta, los gestores verán cada vez más viables las estrategias de aceptar y dirigir que las que utilizan actualmente. La exploración de varios tipos de viabilidad a lo largo del tiempo permite considerar las trayectorias sociales y ecológicas del cambio en conjunto. Nuestra teoría sugiere que profundizar en el horizonte temporal de las decisiones permite que se analice con cuidado sobre cuando se deben adoptar enfoques diferentes y cómo combinarlos con el tiempo.

Quantifying stability and resilience of eco-social keystone species complexes for coastal marine ecosystems of the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific: applications in conservation and monitoring programmes.

The local stability and resilience of 13 eco-social keystone species complexes (eco-social KSCs)-considered as conservation and monitoring units-were quantified in coastal marine ecosystems located in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. Based on Routh-Hurwitz's criterion and Levins' criteria, the eco-social KSCs corresponding to Islas Marietas National Park (Mexico) emerged as the most locally stable and resilient ecosystem. To the contrary, the eco-social KSCs determined for Guala Guala Bay (Chile) and Xcalak Reef National Park (Caribbean) were the least stable and resilient, respectively. In terms of sensitivity, the eco-social KSCs corresponding to El Cobre Bay (Chile) presented the greatest number of sensitive components. The ecological section of the KSCs is formed by a tri-trophic network, dominating self-negative feedbacks. In the case of the socio-economic section, the fisher could exhibit the three types of self-feedbacks, and instead, the demand should be controlled. The identification of eco-social KSCs and the quantification of their stabilities and resiliences allow us to approach ecosystem-based fisheries management under a climate change context. Therefore, we suggest assessing and monitoring the persistence of the eco-social KSCs herein analysed over time, as a way to conserve the fundamental network structure of these ecosystems intervened by fishing.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

The interplay of facilitation and competition drives the emergence of multistability in dryland plant communities.

Within communities, species are wrapped in a set of feedbacks with each other and with their environment. When such feedbacks are strong enough they can generate alternative stable states. So far, research on alternative stable states has mostly focused on systems with a small number of species and a limited diversity of interaction types. Here, we analyze a spatial model of plant community dynamics in stressed ecosystems such as drylands, where each species is characterized by a strategy, and the different species interact through facilitation and competition for space and resources, such as water. We identify three different types of multistability emerging from the interplay of competition and facilitation. Under low-stress levels, plant communities organize in small groups of coexisting species, maintained by space, competition and facilitation ("cliques"). Under higher stress levels, positive feedback from facilitation lead to the dominance of a single facilitating species ("mutual exclusion states"). At the highest stress levels, the single facilitating species left in the system coexists with the desert state. By linking community ecology and alternative stable states theory using a spatial plant community model for stressed ecosystems, our study contributes to highlight the importance of positive feedback loops for the stability of ecological communities.

A common ericoid shrub modulates the diversity and structure of fungal communities across an arbuscular to ectomycorrhizal tree dominance gradient.

Differences between arbuscular (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) trees strongly influence forest ecosystem processes, in part through their impact on saprotrophic fungal communities. Ericoid mycorrhizal (ErM) shrubs likely also impact saprotrophic communities given that they can shape nutrient cycling by slowing decomposition rates and intensifying nitrogen limitation. We investigated the depth distributions of saprotrophic and EcM fungal communities in paired subplots with and without a common understory ErM shrub, mountain laurel (Kalmia latifolia L.), across an AM to EcM tree dominance gradient in a temperate forest by analyzing soils from the organic, upper mineral (0-10 cm), and lower mineral (cumulative depth of 30 cm) horizons. The presence of K. latifolia was strongly associated with the taxonomic and functional composition of saprotrophic and EcM communities. Saprotrophic richness was consistently lower in the Oa horizon when this ErM shrub species was present. However, in AM tree-dominated plots, the presence of the ErM shrub was associated with a higher relative abundance of saprotrophs. Given that EcM trees suppress both the diversity and relative abundance of saprotrophic communities, our results suggest that separate consideration of ErM shrubs and EcM trees may be necessary when assessing the impacts of plant mycorrhizal associations on belowground communities.

Designing eco-evolutionary experiments for restoration projects: Opportunities and constraints revealed during stickleback introductions.

Eco-evolutionary experiments are typically conducted in semi-unnatural controlled settings, such as mesocosms; yet inferences about how evolution and ecology interact in the real world would surely benefit from experiments in natural uncontrolled settings. Opportunities for such experiments are rare but do arise in the context of restoration ecology-where different "types" of a given species can be introduced into different "replicate" locations. Designing such experiments requires wrestling with consequential questions. (Q1) Which specific "types" of a focal species should be introduced to the restoration location? (Q2) How many sources of each type should be used-and should they be mixed together? (Q3) Which specific source populations should be used? (Q4) Which type(s) or population(s) should be introduced into which restoration sites? We recently grappled with these questions when designing an eco-evolutionary experiment with threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) introduced into nine small lakes and ponds on the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska that required restoration. After considering the options at length, we decided to use benthic versus limnetic ecotypes (Q1) to create a mixed group of colonists from four source populations of each ecotype (Q2), where ecotypes were identified based on trophic morphology (Q3), and were then introduced into nine restoration lakes scaled by lake size (Q4). We hope that outlining the alternatives and resulting choices will make the rationales clear for future studies leveraging our experiment, while also proving useful for investigators considering similar experiments in the future.

Geo-evolutionary feedbacks: integrating rapid evolution and landscape change.

We develop a conceptual framework for geo-evolutionary feedbacks which describes the mutual interplay between landscape change and the evolution of traits of organisms residing on the landscape, with an emphasis on contemporary timeframes. Geo-evolutionary feedbacks can be realized via the direct evolution of geomorphic engineering traits or can be mediated by the evolution of trait variation that affects the population size and distribution of the specific geomorphic engineering organisms involved. Organisms that modify their local environments provide the basis for patch-scale geo-evolutionary feedbacks, whereas spatial self-organization provides a mechanism for geo-evolutionary feedbacks at the landscape scale. Understanding these likely prevalent geo-evolutionary feedbacks, that occur at timescales similar to anthropogenic climate change, will be essential to better predict landscape adaptive capacity and change.

Distinct effects of phyllosphere and rhizosphere microbes on invader Ageratina adenophora during its early life stages.

Microbes strongly affect invasive plant growth. However, how phyllosphere and rhizosphere soil microbes distinctively affect seedling mortality and growth of invaders across ontogeny under varying soil nutrient levels remains unclear. In this study, we used the invader Ageratina adenophora to evaluate these effects. We found that higher proportions of potential pathogens were detected in core microbial taxa in leaf litter than rhizosphere soil and thus leaf inoculation had more adverse effects on seed germination and seedling survival than soil inoculation. Microbial inoculation at different growth stages altered the microbial community and functions of seedlings, and earlier inoculation had a more adverse effect on seedling survival and growth. The soil nutrient level did not affect microbe-mediated seedling growth and the relative abundance of the microbial community and functions involved in seedling growth. The effects of some microbial genera on seedling survival are distinct from those on growth. Moreover, the A. adenophora seedling-killing effects of fungal strains isolated from dead seedlings by non-sterile leaf inoculation exhibited significant phylogenetic signals, by which strains of Allophoma and Alternaria generally caused high seedling mortality. Our study stresses the essential role of A. adenophora litter microbes in population establishment by regulating seedling density and growth.

Why are graminoid species more dominant? Trait-mediated plant-soil feedbacks shape community composition.

Species traits may determine plant interactions along with soil microbiome, further shaping plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs). However, how plant traits modulate PSFs and, consequently, the dominance of plant functional groups remains unclear. We used a combination of field surveys and a two-phase PSF experiment to investigate whether forbs and graminoids differed in PSFs and in their trait-PSF associations. When grown in forb-conditioned soils, forbs experienced stronger negative feedbacks, while graminoids experienced positive feedbacks. Graminoid-conditioned soil resulted in neutral PSFs for both functional types. Forbs with thin roots and small seeds showed more-negative PSFs than those with thick roots and large seeds. Conversely, graminoids with acquisitive root and leaf traits (i.e., thin roots and thin leaves) demonstrated greater positive PSFs than graminoids with thick roots and tough leaves. By distinguishing overall and soil biota-mediated PSFs, we found that the associations between plant traits and PSFs within both functional groups were mainly mediated by soil biota. A simulation model demonstrated that such differences in PSFs could lead to a dominance of graminoids over forbs in natural plant communities, which might explain why graminoids dominate in grasslands. Our study provides new insights into the differentiation and adaptation of plant life-history strategies under selection pressures imposed by soil biota.

The effects of bathymetry on the long-term carbon cycle and CCD.

The shape of the ocean floor (bathymetry) and the overlaying sediments provide the largest carbon sink throughout Earth's history, supporting ~one to two orders of magnitude more carbon storage than the oceans and atmosphere combined. While accumulation and erosion of these sediments are bathymetry dependent (e.g., due to pressure, temperature, salinity, ion concentration, and available productivity), no systemic study has quantified how global and basin scale bathymetry, controlled by the evolution of tectonics and mantle convection, affects the long-term carbon cycle. We reconstruct bathymetry spanning the last 80 Myr to describe steady-state changes in ocean chemistry within the Earth system model LOSCAR. We find that both bathymetry reconstructions and representative synthetic tests show that ocean alkalinity, calcite saturation state, and the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) are strongly dependent on changes in shallow bathymetry (ocean floor ≤600 m) and on the distribution of the deep marine regions (>1,000 m). Limiting Cenozoic evolution to bathymetry alone leads to predicted CCD variations spanning 500 m, 33 to 50% of the total observed variations in the paleoproxy records. Our results suggest that neglecting bathymetric changes leads to significant misattribution to uncertain carbon cycle parameters (e.g., atmospheric CO2 and water column temperature) and processes (e.g., biological pump efficiency and silicate-carbonate riverine flux). To illustrate this point, we use our updated bathymetry for an Early Paleogene C cycle case study. We obtain carbonate riverine flux estimates that suggest a reversal of the weathering trend with respect to present-day, contrasting with previous studies, but consistent with proxy records and tectonic reconstructions.

Depth-dependent responses of soil organic carbon under nitrogen deposition.

Emerging evidence points out that the responses of soil organic carbon (SOC) to nitrogen (N) addition differ along the soil profile, highlighting the importance of synthesizing results from different soil layers. Here, using a global meta-analysis, we found that N addition significantly enhanced topsoil (0-30 cm) SOC by 3.7% (±1.4%) in forests and grasslands. In contrast, SOC in the subsoil (30-100 cm) initially increased with N addition but decreased over time. The model selection analysis revealed that experimental duration and vegetation type are among the most important predictors across a wide range of climatic, environmental, and edaphic variables. The contrasting responses of SOC to N addition indicate the importance of considering deep soil layers, particularly for long-term continuous N deposition. Finally, the lack of depth-dependent SOC responses to N addition in experimental and modeling frameworks has likely resulted in the overestimation of changes in SOC storage under enhanced N deposition.

A positive feedback to climate change: The effect of temperature on the respiration of key wood-decomposing fungi does not decline with time.

Heterotrophic soil microorganisms are responsible for ~50% of the carbon dioxide released by respiration from the terrestrial biosphere each year. The respiratory response of soil microbial communities to warming, and the control mechanisms, remains uncertain, yet is critical to understanding the future land carbon (C)-climate feedback. Individuals of nine species of fungi decomposing wood were exposed to 90 days of cooling to evaluate the medium-term effect of temperature on respiration. Overall, the effect of temperature on respiration increased in the medium term, with no evidence of compensation. However, the increasing effect of temperature on respiration was lost after correcting for changes in biomass. These results indicate that C loss through respiration of wood-decomposing fungi will increase beyond the direct effects of temperature on respiration, potentially promoting greater C losses from terrestrial ecosystems and a positive feedback to climate change.

Genotype diversity enhances invasion resistance of native plants via soil biotic feedbacks.

Although native species diversity is frequently reported to enhance invasion resistance, within-species diversity of native plants can also moderate invasions. While the positive diversity-invasion resistance relationship is often attributed to competition, indirect effects mediated through plant-soil feedbacks can also influence the relationship. We manipulated the genotypic diversity of an endemic species, Scirpus mariqueter, and evaluated the effects of abiotic versus biotic feedbacks on the performance of a global invader, Spartina alterniflora. We found that invader performance on live soils decreased non-additively with genotypic diversity of the native plant that trained the soils, but this reversed when soils were sterilized to eliminate feedbacks through soil biota. The influence of soil biota on the feedback was primarily associated with increased levels of microbial biomass and fungal diversity in soils trained by multiple-genotype populations. Our findings highlight the importance of plant-soil feedbacks mediating the positive relationship between genotypic diversity and invasion resistance.

Long-term drought promotes invasive species by reducing wildfire severity.

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system. We measured community composition before and after the 2020 Silverado wildfire in plots with three rainfall treatments. Drought reduced fuel load and vegetation cover, which reduced fire severity. Native shrubs had greater prefire cover in added water plots compared to reduced water plots. Native cover was lower and invasive cover was higher in postfire reduced water plots compared to postfire added and ambient water plots. Our results demonstrate the importance of fuel load on fire severity and plant community composition on an ecosystem scale. Management should focus on reducing fire frequency and removing invasive species to maintain the resilience of coastal sage scrub communities facing drought. In these communities, controlled burns are not recommended as they promote invasive plants.

Evolution of delayed dispersal with group size effect and population dynamics.

Individuals delay natal dispersal for many reasons. There may be no place to disperse to; immediate dispersal or reproduction may be too costly; immediate dispersal may mean that the individual and their relatives miss the benefits of group living. Understanding the factors that lead to the evolution of delayed dispersal is important because delayed dispersal sets the stage for complex social groups and social behavior. Here, we study the evolution of delayed dispersal when the quality of the local environment is improved by greater numbers of individuals (e.g., safety in numbers). We assume that individuals who delay natal dispersal also expect to delay personal reproduction. In addition, we assume that improved environmental quality benefits manifest as changes to fecundity and survival. We are interested in how do the changes in these life-history features affect delayed dispersal. We use a model that ties evolution to population dynamics. We also aim to understand the relationship between levels of delayed dispersal and the probability of establishing as an independent breeder (a population-level feature) in response to changes in life-history details. Our model emphasizes kin selection and considers a sexual organism, which allows us to study parent-offspring conflict over delayed dispersal. At evolutionary equilibrium, fecundity and survival benefits of group size or quality promote higher levels of delayed dispersal over a larger set of life histories with one exception. The exception is for benefits of increased group size or quality reaped by the individuals who delay dispersal. There, the increased benefit does not change the life histories supporting delay dispersal. Next, in contrast to previous predictions, we find that a low probability of establishing in a new location is not always associated with a higher incidence of delayed dispersal. Finally, we find that increased personal benefits of delayed dispersal exacerbate the conflict between parents and their offspring. We discuss our findings in relation to previous theoretical and empirical work, especially work related to cooperative breeding.

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems.

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH4 fluxes (FCH4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH4 , with increases in FCH4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981-1989 to 2010-2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10-40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

Field to Greenhouse: How Stable Is the Soil Microbiome after Removal from the Field?

Plant-soil feedback (PSF) processes impact plant productivity and ecosystem function, but they are poorly understood because PSFs vary significantly with plant and soil type, plant growth stage, and environmental conditions. Controlled greenhouse studies are essential to unravel the mechanisms associating PSFs with plant productivity; however, successful implementation of these controlled experiments is constrained by our understanding of the persistence of the soil microbiome during the transition from field to greenhouse. This study evaluates the preservation potential of a field soil microbiome when stored in the laboratory under field temperature and moisture levels. Soil microbial diversity, taxonomic composition, and functional potential were evaluated via amplicon sequencing at the start of storage (W0), week 3 (W3), week 6 (W6), and week 9 (W9) to determine the effect of storage time on soil microbiome integrity. Though microbial richness remained stable, Shannon diversity indices decreased significantly at W6 for bacteria/archaea and W3 for fungi. Bacterial/archaeal community composition also remained stable, whereas the fungal community changed significantly during the first 3 weeks. Functional predictions revealed increased capacity for chemoheterotrophy for bacteria/archaea and decreased relative proportions of arbuscular mycorrhizal and ectomycorrhizal fungi. We show that preservation of the field soil microbiome must be a fundamental component of experimental design. Either greenhouse experiments should be initiated within 3 weeks of field soil collection, or a preliminary incubation study should be conducted to determine the time and storage conditions required to sustain the integrity of the specific field soil microbiome being studied.

Land-use change from market responses to oil palm intensification in Indonesia.

Oil palm is a major driver of tropical deforestation. A key intervention proposed to reduce the footprint of oil palm is intensifying production to free up spare land for nature, yet the indirect land-use implications of intensification through market forces are poorly understood. We used a spatially explicit land-rent modeling framework to characterize the supply and demand of oil palm in Indonesia under multiple yield improvement and demand elasticity scenarios and explored how shifts in market equilibria alter projections of crop expansion. Oil palm supply was sensitive to crop prices and yield improvements. Across all our scenarios, intensification raised agricultural rents and lowered the effectiveness of reductions in crop expansion. Increased yields lowered oil palm prices, but these price-drops were not sufficient to prevent further cropland expansion from increased agricultural rents under a range of price elasticities of demand. Crucially, we found that agricultural intensification might only result in land being spared when the demand relationship was highly inelastic and crop prices were very low (i.e., a 70% price reduction). Under this scenario, the extent of land spared (∼0.32 million ha) was countered by the continued establishment of new plantations (∼1.04 million ha). Oil palm intensification in Indonesia could exacerbate current pressures on its imperiled biodiversity and should be deployed with stronger spatial planning and enforcement to prevent further cropland expansion.

Cambios en el uso de suelo causados por la reacción del mercado a la intensificación de la palma aceitera en Indonesia Resumen La palma aceitera es una de las principales causas de la deforestación. Una intervención importante propuesta para reducir la huella de esta palma es la intensificación de la producción para que el suelo sobrante sea usado por la naturaleza, pero se sabe muy poco sobre las implicaciones del uso indirecto de suelo de la intensificación a través de las fuerzas del mercado. Usamos un marco de modelos de renta de suelo espacialmente explícito para caracterizar la oferta y demanda de la palma aceitera en Indonesia bajo varios escenarios de mejoras en la producción y elasticidad de demandas y exploramos cómo los cambios en el equilibrio del mercado alteran las proyecciones de la expansión agrícola. La oferta de palma aceitera fue susceptible a los precios de los cultivos y a las mejoras en la producción. La intensificación elevó la renta agrícola y redujo la efectividad de la reducción de la expansión agrícola en todos nuestros escenarios. El aumento en la producción bajó los precios de la palma, pero estas caídas no fueron suficientes para evitar la expansión agrícola a partir de las rentas agrícolas elevadas bajo un rango de elasticidad de precios de demanda. Más importante, descubrimos que la intensificación agrícola puede sólo resultar en que sobre el suelo cuando la relación de demanda casi no sea elástica y los precios de las cosechas sean muy bajos (una reducción del 70% en los precios). Bajo este escenario, la extensión de suelo sobrante (∼0.32 millones de ha) fue contrarrestado por el establecimiento continuo de nuevos sembradíos (∼1.04 millones de ha). La intensificación de la palma aceitera en Indonesia podría agravar las presiones existentes sobre su biodiversidad en peligro y debería implementarse con una mayor planeación espacial y aplicación para prevenir una expansión agrícola superior.