Revealing suitable habitats for Juniperus procera and Olea europaea tree species in the remnant dry Afromontane forests of Ethiopia: Insights from ensemble species distribution modeling approach.

Human activities and climate change pose a significant threat to the dry Afromontane forests in Ethiopia, which are essential for millions of people both economically and ecologically. In Ethiopia, trees are planted elsewhere even if they are not likely to be well suited to the area. This study aims to identify the suitable habitat for the most exploited Juniperus procera (J. procera) and Olea europaea (O. europaea) tree species in northern Ethiopia. As inputs, least correlated temperature, moisture, soil, and topographic variables were selected through a stepwise procedure. The study evaluated five individual and ensemble models using the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) values. The ensemble model outperformed with mean AUC of 0.95 and TSS of 0.78 for J. procera, while securing the second position for O. europaea with an AUC of 0.88 and TSS of 0.71. Climatic factors emerged as the most influential, followed by soil and topography. Suitable areas for both species were found when Isothermality (Bio3) values range from 52% to 62%, temperature seasonality (Bio4) of 16-29°C. Moreover, well drained soils with soil texture not heavier than sandy clay, and soil organic carbon ranging from 5 to 42 g kg-1 were found suitable. The optimal suitable altitude for J. procera and O. europaea was determined to be 2200-2600 and 2100-2500 m.a.s.l., respectively. The suitable areas for J. procera and O. europaea were estimated to be 3130 and 3946 km2, respectively. Furthermore, potential plantation areas were identified beyond Desa'a and Hugumbirda Grat-Kahsu protected forests, covering 2721 km2 (86.9%) for J. procera and 3576 km2 (90.6%) for O. europaea. These findings hold significance for the conservation and sustainable management of these valuable tree species in northern Ethiopia. We recommend implementing a similar approach for other locally restricted dry Afromontane tree species with wider potential distribution.

Potential impacts of climate change on cephalopods in a highly productive region (Northwest Pacific): Habitat suitability and management.

Cephalopods occupy a mid-trophic level in marine ecosystems and are vital both ecologically and as fishery resources. However, under the pressure of climate change and fishing, the sustainability of cephalopod resources requires reasonable management. This study aims to study climate change and fishing impacts on the common economic cephalopod species habitats using species distribution models. We take the northwest Pacific Ocean region as an example, which stands out as a significant region for cephalopod production around the world. Results found that the habitats of cephalopods are moving to higher latitudes or deeper waters (Bohai Sea, mid-bottom Yellow Sea, and the Okinawa Trough waters) under climate change. Additionally, these regions are currently under lower fishing pressure, which suggests that species migration might mitigate the effects of warming and fishing. This study provides the large-scale assessment of the distribution range of cephalopods affected by climate change coping with fishing pressure in the northwest Pacific Ocean. By identifying climate refuges and key fishing grounds, we underscore the importance of this information for managing cephalopod resources in the context of climate adaptation and sustainable fishing practices.

Machine learning algorithms for the evaluation of risk by tick-borne pathogens in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Tick-borne pathogens pose a major threat to human health worldwide. Understanding the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases to reduce their impact on human health requires models covering large geographic areas and considering both the abiotic traits that affect tick presence, as well as the vertebrates used as hosts, vegetation, and land use. Herein, we integrated the public information available for Europe regarding the variables that may affect habitat suitability for ticks and hosts and tested five machine learning algorithms (MLA) for predicting the distribution of four prominent tick species across Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A grid of cells 20 km in diameter was prepared to cover the entire territory, containing data on vegetation, points of water, habitat fragmentation, forest density, grass extension, or imperviousness, with information on temperature and water deficit. The distribution of the hosts (162 species) was modelled and included in the dataset. We used five MLA, namely, Random Forest, Neural Networks, Naive Bayes, Gradient Boosting, and AdaBoost, trained with reliable coordinates for Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Dermacentor marginatus, and Hyalomma marginatum in Europe. RESULTS: Both Random Forest and Gradient Boosting best predicted ticks and host environmental niches. Our results demonstrate that MLA can identify trait-matching combinations of environmental niches. The inclusion of land cover and land use variables has a superior capacity for predicting areas suitable for ticks, compared to classic methods based on the use of climate data alone. CONCLUSIONS: Flexible MLA-driven models may offer several advantages over traditional models. We anticipate that these results may be extrapolated to other regions and combinations of tick-vertebrates. These results highlight the potential of MLA for inference in ecology and provide a background for the evolution of a completely automatized tool to calculate the seasonality of ticks for early warning systems aimed at preventing tick-borne diseases.

Mapping threatened Thai bovids provides opportunities for improved conservation outcomes in Asia.

Wild bovids provide important ecosystem functions as seed dispersers and vegetation modifiers. Five wild bovids remain in Thailand: gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), wild water buffalo (Bubalus arnee), mainland serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus). Their populations and habitats have declined substantially and become fragmented by land-use change. We use ecological niche models to quantify how much potential suitable habitat for these species remains within protected areas in Asia and then specifically Thailand. We combined species occurrence data from several sources (e.g. mainly camera traps and direct observation) with environmental variables and species-specific and single, large accessible areas in ensemble models to generate suitability maps, using out-of-sample predictions to validate model performance against new independent data. Gaur, banteng and buffalo models showed reasonable model accuracy throughout the entire distribution (greater than or equal to 62%) and in Thailand (greater than or equal to 80%), whereas serow and goral models performed poorly for the entire distribution and in Thailand, though 5 km movement buffers markedly improved the performance for serow. Large suitable areas were identified in Thailand and India for gaur, Cambodia and Thailand for banteng and India for buffalo. Over 50% of suitable habitat is located outside protected areas, highlighting the need for habitat management and conflict mitigation outside protected areas.

Transformation trajectory of wetland and suitability of migratory water bird habitat in the moribund Ganges delta.

Wetland is a suitable habitat for water birds, and it enhances cultural ecosystem services. But the rapid transformation of such habitat, especially in floodplain environments, is an emerging crisis. Wetland reclamation and fragmentation are two major issues leading to poor habitat and landscape. The present paper aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the suitability of wetland bird habitat, wetland landscape pattern, and the connection between them. Two wetlands, including a wetland of national importance, were taken as cases for this study. Time series Landsat and Sentinel images were taken for developing modeling parameters and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) for the years 2016 and 2020. The first transformation of wetland was accounted from the LULC maps of both years. Machine learning algorithm-based spatial models were developed for mapping the poor landscape condition of the existing wetland parts. Finally, semi-subjective analytic hierarchy approach (AHP)-based models were developed for assessing waterbird habitat suitability. Results demarcated more than 48% area belonging primarily to edges and tiny patches of wetlands under a poor state in 2020. Although the total wetland area was reduced between 2016 and 2020, the wetland area found to be highly suitable habitat increased from 25.5 to 59.44% of the total area during that period. The suitability of edge-preferring bird habitat showed a 10% increase. The increasing poverty of the landscape was caused by declining edge-preferring bird habitat suitability. From 1990 to 2020, 27% of wetlands were converted to single-cropped lands, and 5% were converted to multi-cropped agricultural land. Since the study spatially identified the potential suitable area and trend of wetland habitat transformation, this could help policymakers define suitable planning for the restoration and conservation of such promising bird habitat.

Redistribution of vocal snapping shrimps under climate change.

A variety of marine organisms can produce sounds that are important components of the marine soundscape and play a critical role in maintaining marine biodiversity. Climate change has greatly altered the geographical ranges of many marine species, including sound-producing organisms. However, the direction and the magnitude of the potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of sound-producing marine organisms in future remain largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we selected snapping shrimp, one of the most well-known marine sound-producing organisms, as a model species and explored their redistribution under climate change via species distribution models. We aimed to predict the redistribution of snapping shrimps under climate change and identify the influencing factors, which have important implications for marine conservation. Our models exhibited good discrimination abilities and identified maximum temperature as the most influential predictor of snapping shrimp distribution. Model predictions suggested that species richness is higher in tropical and temperate coastal waters and peaks in the Indo-Pacific region. The majority of snapping shrimp species are expected to respond to the changing climate by shifting their geographical ranges to deeper waters and higher latitudes. Our results showed that, in the future, high-latitude species were more likely to experience range expansion, whereas low-latitude species might experience range contraction. Moreover, the Central Indo-Pacific are predicted to suffer the biggest decline in species richness, whereas areas such as the coastal waters of southern Australia and northern China might serve as climate refuges for snapping shrimps in the future. In summary, this study highlights the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of sound-producing snapping shrimps, which may result in cascading effects on marine ecosystems.

Distribution of habitat suitability for Suaeda salsa in the Liaohe River Estuary and its relationship with carbon storage.

Suaeda salsa acts as a natural barrier between land and sea in estuarine wetlands while also serving as a significant source of carbon storage. Understanding the synergistic relationship between the spatial distribution of Suaeda salsa habitat suitability and its carbon storage capabilities is essential for guiding ecological restoration and bolstering the carbon sequestration potential of wetlands. Drawing on field survey data from the Liaohe River Estuary wetlands collected in 2021 and 2022, we applied the Maxent model to delineate the spatial distribution of Suaeda salsa habitat suitability. The findings indicate that the principal environmental determinants for the Suaeda salsa community are elevation, soil phosphorus, and sand and soil salt content. Habitats can be divided from into four classes with increasing suitability index: I, II, III, and IV. As the most favorable habitat, class IV spanned 33.07 km2 and constituted 22.37 % of the area. By integrating remote sensing and ground survey data, a carbon storage evaluation model for Suaeda salsa was developed. This model revealed that the carbon storage within the Liaohe River Estuary reached 8238.18 and 16,194.08 tons in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis of habitat suitability distribution and carbon storage revealed that an increase in habitat suitability led to an increase in carbon storage in Suaeda salsa, which was also influenced by the surrounding land use types. This work demonstrates a significant positive correlation between habitat suitability and carbon sequestration capacity. In the future, we suggest that ecological restoration projects in the Liaohe Estuary region focus on areas with higher habitat suitability. This study supports the sustainable management of the Suaeda salsa community and provides a theoretical basis for enhancing the carbon sequestration capacity of estuarine wetlands.

"Two zones and three centers" distribution and suitable areas shift of an evergreen oak in subtropical China under climate scenarios.

Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. Quercus oxyphylla, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high-density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for Q. oxyphylla under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) Q. oxyphylla showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region (IVA): Qinling-Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone (IVAii) and the mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest zone (IVAi). (2) The temperature-related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, Q. oxyphylla's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IVAi was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IVAii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.

Habitat suitability and protected area coverage for an expanding cougar Puma concolor population in Canada.

Successful conservation of expanding large carnivore populations and management of human-wildlife conflict to promote coexistence requires sufficient spatiotemporal knowledge to inform appropriate action. In Canada, cougars (Puma concolor) are expanding their range eastwards and little research is available for use in decision making by land managers and conservation planners. To inform proactive management regarding expanding populations of cougars in Canada, we utilized open-source cougar presence and land-cover data in a maximum entropy habitat suitability model to determine potentially suitable habitat for cougars across the country. We then used a gap analysis to determine the effectiveness of existing formal protected areas to protect potential cougar habitat. Suitable habitat exists for range-expanding cougars dispersing eastwards through the central and eastern provinces to the Atlantic coast. While the habitat is highly fragmented, the highest suitability occurs in areas of medium road density, indicating that the potential for new human-cougar conflict will likely involve residents of exurban and rural areas. Protected areas offered 16% coverage of suitable habitat, although most protected areas that overlap predicted cougar habitat are not large enough to effectively conserve the large home range requirements of cougars. Synthesis and Applications: High fragmentation of suitable habitat and the potential for human-wildlife conflict requires proactive management to ensure appropriately sized and connected areas are maintained for the establishment of expanding cougar populations. Many of the management actions intended to aid in the conservation of cougars and their habitat can also serve to mitigate potential human-cougar conflict arising as a consequence of an expanding population, such as highway wildlife crossing structures and formal habitat protection.

Using spatial distribution modeling of commercial species to inform management of small-scale fisheries in a Mediterranean marine protected area.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) make an essential contribution to the spatial management of critical areas, the conservation of coastal species exploited by human activities, and the sustainable use of marine resources. Within MPAs, fishing closure areas are among the most used small-scale fishery management tools, even though their effectiveness largely remains untested or controversial. To reduce the impact of small-scale fisheries on marine resources, a seasonal fishing closure area (SFCA) was established beginning in 2022 in autumn-winter season inside the Capo Caccia-Isola Piana MPA (Sardinia, northwestern Mediterranean Sea). Here, we assessed a posteriori whether the areas of higher habitat suitability for eight species/taxa of relevant ecological value and economic interest to small-scale fisheries were included in the established SFCA, adequately meeting the ecological objectives of the MPA. Thus, landing data (from 2019 to 2023) were used as occurrence records to develop MaxEnt distribution models for the eight target species/taxa. The model outputs allow us to draw important insights about the spatial adequacy of the SFCA established within the MPA aimed to protect the most exploited marine resources. Furthermore, the modeling exercises were useful for understanding the local processes influencing species' habitat selection and to identify essential areas for the target species that could remain unrevealed in larger-scale investigations.