Multi-trajectories of body mass index, waist circumference, gut microbiota, and incident dyslipidemia: a 27-year prospective study.

Background: Evidence is insufficient to establish a longitudinal association between combined trajectories of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and dyslipidemia. Our study aimed to explore the association between multi-trajectories of BMI and WC and incident dyslipidemia and identify microbiota and metabolite signatures of these trajectories. Methods: Stratified by sex, we used a group-based trajectory modeling approach to identify distinct multi-trajectories of BMI and WC among 10,678 participants from the China Health and Nutrition Survey over a 24-year period. For each sex, we examined the associations between these multi-trajectories (1991-2015) and the onset dyslipidemia (2018) using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyles factors. We characterized the gut microbial composition and performed LASSO and logistic regression to identify gut microbial signatures associated with these multi-trajectories in males and females, respectively. Results: We identified four multi-trajectories of BMI and WC among both males and females: Normal (Group 1), BMI&WC normal increasing (Group 2), BMI&WC overweight increasing (Group 3), and BMI&WC obesity increasing (Group 4). Among males, Group 2 (OR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.28-3.46), Group 3 (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.56-4.63) and Group 4 (OR: 3.56, 95% CI: 1.85-6.83) had higher odds of developing dyslipidemia. However, among females, only those in Group 2 (OR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03-2.30) were more likely to develop dyslipidemia. In males, compared with Group 1, we observed lower alpha-diversity within Groups 2,3, and 4, and significant beta-diversity differences within Groups 3 and 4 (p 0.001). We also identified 3, 8, and 4 characteristic bacterial genera in male Groups 2, 3 and 4, and 2 genera in female Group 2. A total of 23, 25 and 10 differential metabolites were significantly associated with the above genera, except for Group 2 in males. Conclusions: The ascending combined trajectories of BMI and WC are associated with a higher risk of dyslipidemia, even with normal baseline levels, especially in males. Shared and unique gut microbial and metabolic signatures among these high-risk trajectories could enhance our understanding of the mechanisms connecting obesity to dyslipidemia.

The association between multiple trajectories of macronutrient intake and the risk of new-onset diabetes in Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: The association between macronutrient intake and diabetes is unclear. We used data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey to explore the association between macronutrient intake trajectories and diabetes risk in this study. METHODS: We included 6755 participants who did not have diabetes at baseline and participated in at least three surveys. The energy supply ratio of carbohydrate, protein, and fat was further calculated from dietary data; different macronutrient trajectories were determined using multitrajectory models; and multiple Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between these trajectories and diabetes. RESULTS: We found three multitrajectories: decreased low carbohydrate-increased moderate protein-increased high fat (DLC-IMP-IHF), decreased high carbohydrate-moderate protein-increased low fat (DHC-MP-ILF), and balanced-macronutrients (BM). Compared to the BM trajectory, DHC-MP-ILF trajectories were significantly associated with increased risk of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.228, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.571-6.632), whereas no association between DLC-IMP-IHF trajectories and diabetes was found in our study (HR: 0.699, 95% CI: 0.351-1.392). CONCLUSIONS: The downward trend of high carbohydrate and the increasing trend of low fat increased the risk of diabetes in Chinese adults.

Association between longitudinal dietary patterns and changes in obesity: a population-based cohort study.

Introduction: Research on the trajectory of dietary patterns and changes in obesity has been inconclusive. Methods: This study described the dietary intake and adiposity trajectories of Chinese adults and assessed the association between dietary trajectories and changes in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). We used data from 3, 643 adults who participated in the China Health and Nutrition Survey from 1997 to 2015. Detailed dietary data were collected by conducting three consecutive 24-h recalls. Multitrajectories of diet scores were identified by a group-based multitrajectory method. We described the change in BMI and WHR using group-based trajectory modeling. We assessed the associations between dietary trajectories and changes in people with obesity using a logistic regression model. Results: Our study revealed four trajectories of low-carbohydrate (LCD) and low-fat diet (LFD) scores. Three adiposity trajectories were identified according to the baseline level and developmental trend of BMI and WHR. Compared with the reference group, which was characterized by sustained healthy dietary habits with healthy diet scores at baseline and sustained maintenance of healthy diet scores, the other three diet trajectories had a higher risk of falling into the adverse adiposity trajectory. Discussion: Maintaining a healthy LCD and LFD can markedly decrease the risk of adiposity.

Multi-trajectories of lipid indices with incident cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and all-cause mortality: 23 years follow-up of two US cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the distinct patterns (trajectories) of variation in blood lipid levels before diagnosing cardiovascular disease (CVD) might carry important implications for improving disease prevention or treatment. METHODS: We investigated 14,373 participants (45.5% men) aged 45-84 from two large US prospective cohort studies with a median of 23 years follow-up. First, we jointly estimated developmental trajectories of lipid indices, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride (TG) concentrations using group-based multi-trajectory modeling. Then, the association of identified multi-trajectories with incident CVD, heart failure, and all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Seven distinct multi-trajectories were identified. The majority of participants (approximately 80%) exhibited decreasing LDL-C but rising TG levels and relatively stable HDL-C levels. Compared to the individuals with healthy and stable LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG levels, those in other groups were at significant risk of incident CVD after adjusting for other conventional risk factors. Individuals with the highest but decreasing LDL-C and borderline high and rising TG levels over time were at the highest risk than those in other groups with a 2.22-fold risk of CVD. Also, those with the highest and increased triglyceride levels over time, over optimal and decreasing LDL-C levels, and the lowest HDL-C profile had a nearly 1.84 times CVD risk. Even individuals in the multi-trajectory group with the highest HDL-C, optimal LDL-C, and optimal TG levels had a significant risk (HR, 1.45; 95% CI 1.02-2.08). Furthermore, only those with the highest HDL-C profile increased the risk of heart failure by 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.07-2.06). CONCLUSIONS: The trajectories and risk of CVD identified in this study demonstrated that despite a decline in LDL-C over time, a significant amount of residual risk for CVD remains. These findings suggest the impact of the increasing trend of TG on CVD risk and emphasize the importance of assessing the lipid levels at each visit and undertaking potential interventions that lower triglyceride concentrations to reduce the residual risk of CVD, even among those with the optimal LDL-C level.

Cognitive, physical and disability trajectories in community-dwelling elderly people.

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Health trajectories in aging, rather than single time-point assessments, could be early indicators of the onset of conditions such as dementia. The aim of this study was to identify different aging trajectories and to investigate their influence on the cumulative incidence of dementia. METHODS: We evaluated data referring to 993 elders from the InveCe.Ab study cohort. All subjects were free from dementia at baseline and re-assessed on at least one other occasion thereafter. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), physical function using the Walking Speed Test (WST), and disability on the basis of the Activities of Daily Living (ADL) score. To describe the different courses of the three outcomes combined, the Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM) method was applied. We looked for differences in age, gender, education, ApoE-e4 carrier status and obesity, and then investigated the influence of the observed trajectories on the incidence of dementia. RESULTS: Three trajectories were identified: a "good" scenario was observed in 703 (70.2%) individuals, who showed substantially stable cognitive and physical function and no disability; an "intermediate" scenario in 248 subjects (25.5%), who recorded a longer walking time, lower MMSE score, and a one-point higher ADL score; and a "severe" scenario in 42 elders (4.3%), who recorded declines in all the outcomes. Female gender, obesity and low education were most represented in the "severe" group. ApoE-e4 carrier status showed no difference between groups. The estimated cumulative incidence of dementia was higher in the "severe" (37%) than in the "intermediate" (7%) and "good" (< 1%) scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Using simple measurements, we built different aging trajectories, and observed that the worst performers had the highest incidence of dementia. Better knowledge of trajectories of aging would be useful for preventive interventions aimed at promoting healthier aging.

Multi-Trajectories of Macronutrient Intake and Their Associations with Obesity among Chinese Adults from 1991 to 2018: A Prospective Study.

Studies on macronutrient intake and obesity have been inconclusive. This study examined the associations between multi-trajectories of macronutrients and the risk of obesity in China. We used data from 7914 adults who participated in the China Health and Nutrition Survey at least three times from 1991 to 2018. We collected detailed dietary data by conducting three 24 h dietary recalls and weighing foods and condiments in household inventories. We identified multi-trajectories using group-based multi-trajectory models and examined their associations with the risk of obesity with multiple Cox regression models. We found four multi-trajectories in rural areas: balanced macronutrient intake (BM), moderate protein, increasing low fat, and decreasing high carbohydrate (MP&ILF&DHC); decreasing moderate protein, decreasing high fat, and increasing moderate carbohydrate (DMP&DHF&IMC); increasing moderate protein, increasing high fat, and decreasing low carbohydrate (IMP&IHF&DLC)-35.1%, 21.3%, 20.1%, and 23.5% of our rural participant population, respectively. Compared with the BM trajectory, the hazard ratios of obesity in the DMP&DHF&IMC and the IMP&IHF&DLC groups were 0.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27-0.95) and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.28-0.83), respectively, in rural participants. Relatively low carbohydrate and high fat intakes with complementary dynamic trends are associated with a lower risk of obesity in rural Chinese adults.