Post-discharge mortality among patients hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection, Bangladesh, 2012-2019: a prospective observational study.

Background: Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models. Findings: Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5-48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1-1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2-23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7-3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4-2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9-14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths. Interpretation: Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients. Funding: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259].

Use of proxy indicators for automated surveillance of severe acute respiratory infection, the Netherlands, 2017 to 2023: a proof-of-concept study.

BackgroundEffective pandemic preparedness requires robust severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance. However, identifying SARI patients based on symptoms is time-consuming. Using the number of reverse transcription (RT)-PCR tests or contact and droplet precaution labels as a proxy for SARI could accurately reflect the epidemiology of patients presenting with SARI.AimWe aimed to compare the number of RT-PCR tests, contact and droplet precaution labels and SARI-related International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes and evaluate their use as surveillance indicators.MethodsPatients from all age groups hospitalised at Leiden University Medical Center between 1 January 2017 up to and including 30 April 2023 were eligible for inclusion. We used a clinical data collection tool to extract data from electronic medical records. For each surveillance indicator, we plotted the absolute count for each week, the incidence proportion per week and the correlation between the three surveillance indicators.ResultsWe included 117,404 hospital admissions. The three surveillance indicators generally followed a similar pattern before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The correlation was highest between contact and droplet precaution labels and ICD-10 diagnostic codes (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.84). There was a strong increase in the number of RT-PCR tests after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.DiscussionAll three surveillance indicators have advantages and disadvantages. ICD-10 diagnostic codes are suitable but are subject to reporting delays. Contact and droplet precaution labels are a feasible option for automated SARI surveillance, since these reflect trends in SARI incidence and may be available real-time.

Real-Time Enterovirus D68 Outbreak Detection through Hospital Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection, Senegal, 2023.

In December 2023, we observed through hospital-based surveillance a severe outbreak of enterovirus D68 infection in pediatric inpatients in Dakar, Senegal. Molecular characterization revealed that subclade B3, the dominant lineage in outbreaks worldwide, was responsible for the outbreak. Enhanced surveillance in inpatient settings, including among patients with neurologic illnesses, is needed.

Clinical Profile and Outcome of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) in Children Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:  Beginning in December 2019, COVID-19 rapidly emerged as a global pandemic. Though its severity in children was reported to be less than that in adults, data on its epidemiology in relation to severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) caused by other microbes needed to be generated. This study compares the clinical profile and outcome of children hospitalized with COVID-19-positive and negative SARI. METHODS:  This is a prospective observational analytical study involving children 1 month to 18 years old, hospitalized with COVID-19-positive and negative SARI during the pandemic. All eligible patients were enrolled after obtaining informed parental consent. Their clinical manifestations, investigations, and outcomes were documented on a predesigned case record form. A nasopharyngeal swab sample for COVID-19 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction was sent, and results were noted. RESULTS:  From May 2020 to July 2021, 267 children were hospitalized with a diagnosis of SARI. Out of these, 146 (54.7%) were boys and 78.7% were under five years of age. Other presentations included fever and cough, breathlessness, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, rash, seizures, and altered sensorium. Twenty-eight patients (10.5%) tested positive for COVID-19. COVID-19 patients were similar in terms of demographic characteristics and presenting symptoms to non-COVID-19 patients but had a lower absolute lymphocyte count (p = 0.019) and higher serum alanine transaminase levels (p = 0.013). Acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.8-10.0), shock (OR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.9-7.9), and need for intensive care unit admission (OR, 9.9; 95% CI, 6.9-14) were more common in COVID-19 SARI patients. Death occurred in 18% of COVID-19 and 9% of non-COVID-19 patients (p = 0.07). SARI nonsurvivors had significantly lower blood pH and platelet counts than survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Comparison of COVID-19-positive and negative SARI patients showed subtle differences between the two groups, with COVID-19-positive children having an increased severity of illness. Also, laboratory evidence of multiorgan dysfunction at admission was associated with higher mortality.

Noninvasive Ventilation in Critically Ill Patients With Severe Acute Respiratory Infections.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between noninvasive ventilation (NIV) compared with invasive ventilation and mortality in subjects with severe acute respiratory infection. METHODS: This was a retrospective multi-center study of subjects with severe acute respiratory infection treated with ventilatory support between September 2012 and June 2018. We compared the 90-d mortality of subjects managed initially with NIV (NIV group) with those managed with invasive ventilation only (invasive ventilation group), adjusting by propensity score. RESULTS: Of 383 subjects, 189 (49%) were in the NIV group and 194 (51%) were in the invasive ventilation group. Of the subjects initially treated with NIV, 117 (62%) were eventually intubated. Crude 90-d mortality was lower in the NIV group versus the invasive ventilation group (42 [22.2%] vs 77 [39.7%]; P < .001). After propensity score adjustment, NIV was associated with lower 90-d mortality than invasive ventilation (odds ratio 0.54, 95% CI 0.38-0.76; P < .001). The association of NIV with mortality compared with invasive ventilation was not different across the studied subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: In subjects with severe acute respiratory infection and acute respiratory failure, NIV was commonly used. NIV was associated with a lower 90-d mortality. The observed high failure rate suggests the need for further research to optimize patient selection and facilitate early recognition of NIV failure.

Effectiveness of cocoon strategy vaccination on prevention of influenza-like illness in young infants.

During the initial half-year of their existence, infants cannot receive the influenza vaccine, yet they face the greatest susceptibility to severe influenza complications. In this study, we seek to determine whether influenza vaccination of maternal and household contacts is associated with a reduced risk of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in infants. This work was prospectively conducted during the influenza season. A total of 206 infants were included in this study. The percentage of infants with only the mother vaccinated is 12.6% (n:26), and the percent of infants with all household contacts vaccinated is 16% (n:33). Among the infants with only the mother vaccinated, the effectiveness of influenza vaccine is estimated as 35.3% for ILI and 41.3% for SARI. Among infants with all household contacts vaccinated, the effectiveness is estimated as 48.9% for ILI and 76.9% for SARI. Based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, all-household vaccination is a protective factor against SARI (OR: 0.07 95% CI [0.01-0.56]), household size (OR: 1.75, 95% CI [1.24-2.48]) and presence of secondhand smoke (OR: 2.2, 95% CI [1.12-4.45]) significant risk factors for SARI in infants. The mother alone being vaccinated is not a statistically significant protective factor against ILI (OR: 0.46, 95% CI [0.19-1.18]) or SARI (OR: 0.3, 95% CI [0.11-1.21]). Along with the obtained results and analysis, this study provides clear evidence that influenza vaccination of all household contacts of infants aged 0-6 months is significantly associated with protecting infants from both ILI and SARI.

Risk factors and circulation pattern of respiratory syncytial virus in children under 2 years in Maputo, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low-resource settings is limited. In Mozambican children <2 y of age with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), we explored risk factors for RSV, described its seasonal variation and assessed associations between RSV and a life-threatening condition. METHODS: We retrospectively included participants presenting in 2017-2018 in two hospitals in Maputo. RSV was detected and subtyped using real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction on nasopharyngeal swabs. We used logistic regression and χ2 tests to assess associations and Spearman's correlation coefficient to assess the correlation between weather measurement and RSV positivity. RESULTS: RSV was detected in 23.1% (n=109) of 472 included children and in 50.0% (20/40) of those <3 months old. Being <3 months (vs >1 y) was associated with RSV (adjusted odds ratio 4.3 [95% confidence interval 2.1-8.5]). RSV status was not associated with experiencing a life-threatening condition. RSV A and B co-circulated during the study period, but one type predominated in each year. In 2017, the RSV positivity rate was correlated with monthly average temperature (r=0.793, p=0.002) and precipitation (r=0.596, p=0.041). CONCLUSIONS: In Mozambican children with SARI, RSV was prevalent, especially in neonates. However, RSV was not associated with a life-threatening condition.

Genetic characterization of pediatric SARI-associated human adenoviruses in eight Chinese provinces during 2017-2021.

Human adenovirus (HAdV) is a significant viral pathogen causing severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) in children. To improve the understanding of type distribution and viral genetic characterization of HAdV in severe cases, this study enrolled 3404 pediatric SARI cases from eight provinces of China spanning 2017-2021, resulting in the acquisition of 112 HAdV strains. HAdV-type identification, based on three target genes (penton base, hexon, and fiber), confirmed the diversity of HAdV types in SARI cases. Twelve types were identified, including species B (HAdV-3, 7, 55), species C (HAdV-1, 2, 6, 89, 108, P89H5F5, Px1/Ps3H1F1, Px1/Ps3H5F5), and E (HAdV-4). Among these, HAdV-3 exhibited the highest detection rate (44.6%), followed by HAdV-7 (19.6%), HAdV-1 (12.5%), and HAdV-108 (9.8%). All HAdV-3, 7, 55, 4 in this study belonged to dominant lineages circulating worldwide, and the sequences of the three genes demonstrated significant conservation and stability. Concerning HAdV-C, excluding the novel type Px1/Ps3H1F1 found in this study, the other seven types were detected both in China and abroad, with HAdV-1 and HAdV-108 considered the two main types of HAdV-C prevalent in China. Two recombinant strains, including P89H5F5 and Px1/Ps3H1F1, could cause SARI as a single pathogen, warranting close monitoring and investigation for potential public health implications. In conclusion, 5 years of SARI surveillance in China provided crucial insights into HAdV-associated respiratory infections among hospitalized pediatric patients.

Characterization of human respiratory syncytial virus in children with severe acute respiratory infection before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objectives: Annual outbreaks of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) are caused by newly introduced and locally persistent strains. During the COVID-19 pandemic, global and local circulation of HRSV significantly decreased. This study was conducted to characterize HRSV in 2018-2022 and to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the evolution of HRSV. Design/methods: Combined oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from children hospitalized with severe acute respiratory infection at two hospitals in Zambia. The second hypervariable region of the attachment gene G was targeted for phylogenetic analysis. Results: Of 3113 specimens, 504 (16.2%) were positive for HRSV, of which 131 (26.0%) and 66 (13.1%) were identified as HRSVA and HRSVB, respectively. In early 2021, an increase in HRSV was detected, caused by multiple distinct clades of HRSVA and HRSVB. Some were newly introduced, whereas others resulted from local persistence. Conclusions: This study provides insights into the evolution of HRSV, driven by global and local circulation. The COVID-19 pandemic had a temporal impact on the evolution pattern of HRSV. Understanding the evolution of HRSV is vital for developing strategies for its control.

Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of 1266 patients with severe acute respiratory infection in central China, 2018-2020: a retrospective survey.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), a significant global health concern, imposes a substantial disease burden. In China, there is inadequate data concerning the monitoring of respiratory pathogens, particularly bacteria, among patients with SARI. Therefore, this study aims to delineate the demographic, epidemiological, and aetiological characteristics of hospitalised SARI patients in Central China between 2018 and 2020. METHODS: Eligible patients with SARI admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2020 were included in this retrospective study. Within the first 24 h of admission, respiratory (including sputum, nasal/throat swabs, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, thoracocentesis fluid, etc.), urine, and peripheral blood specimens were collected for viral and bacterial testing. A multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic approach was used to identify human influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, human bocavirus, human coronavirus, human metapneumovirus, and rhinovirus. Bacterial cultures of respiratory specimens were performed with a particular focus on pathogenic microorganisms, including S. pneumoniae, S. aureus, K. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosa, Strep A, H. influenzae, A. baumannii, and E. coli. In cases where bacterial culture results were negative, nucleic acid extraction was performed for PCR to assay for the above-mentioned eight bacteria, as well as L. pneumophila and M. pneumoniae. Additionally, urine specimens were exclusively used to detect Legionella antigens. Furthermore, epidemiological, demographic, and clinical data were obtained from electronic medical records. RESULTS: The study encompassed 1266 patients, with a mean age of 54 years, among whom 61.6% (780/1266) were males, 61.4% (778/1266) were farmers, and 88.8% (1124/1266) sought medical treatment in 2020. Moreover, 80.3% (1017/1266) were housed in general wards. The most common respiratory symptoms included fever (86.8%, 1122/1266) and cough (77.8%, 986/1266). Chest imaging anomalies were detected in 62.6% (792/1266) of cases, and 58.1% (736/1266) exhibited at least one respiratory pathogen, with 28.5% (361/1266) having multiple infections. Additionally, 95.7% (1212/1266) of the patients were from Henan Province, with the highest proportion (38.3%, 486/1266) falling in the 61-80 years age bracket, predominantly (79.8%, 1010/1266) seeking medical aid in summer and autumn. Bacterial detection rate (39.0%, 495/1266) was higher than viral detection rate (36.9%, 468/1266), with the primary pathogens being influenza virus (13.8%, 175/1266), K. pneumoniae (10.0%, 127/1266), S. pneumoniae (10.0%, 127/1266), adenovirus (8.2%, 105/1266), P. aeruginosa (8.2%, 105/1266), M. pneumoniae (7.8%, 100/1266), and respiratory syncytial virus (7.7%, 98/1266). During spring and winter, there was a significant prevalence of influenza virus and human coronavirus, contrasting with the dominance of parainfluenza viruses in summer and autumn. Respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus exhibited higher prevalence across spring, summer, and winter. P. aeruginosa, K. pneumoniae, and M. pneumoniae were identified at similar rates throughout all seasons without distinct spikes in prevalence. However, S. pneumoniae showed a distinctive pattern with a prevalence that doubled during summer and winter. Moreover, the positive detection rates of various other viruses and bacteria were lower, displaying a comparatively erratic prevalence trend. Among patients admitted to the intensive care unit, the predominant nosocomial bacteria were K. pneumoniae (17.2%, 43/249), A. baumannii (13.6%, 34/249), and P. aeruginosa (12.4%, 31/249). Conversely, in patients from general wards, predominant pathogens included influenza virus (14.8%, 151/1017), S. pneumoniae (10.4%, 106/1017), and adenovirus (9.3%, 95/1017). Additionally, paediatric patients exhibited significantly higher positive detection rates for influenza virus (23.9%, 11/46) and M. pneumoniae (32.6%, 15/46) compared to adults and the elderly. Furthermore, adenovirus (10.0%, 67/669) and rhinovirus (6.4%, 43/669) were the primary pathogens in adults, while K. pneumoniae (11.8%, 65/551) and A. baumannii (7.1%, 39/551) prevailed among the elderly, indicating significant differences among the three age groups. DISCUSSION: In Central China, among patients with SARI, the prevailing viruses included influenza virus, adenovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus. Among bacteria, K. pneumoniae, S. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosa, and M. pneumoniae were frequently identified, with multiple infections being very common. Additionally, there were substantial variations in the pathogen spectrum compositions concerning wards and age groups among patients. Consequently, this study holds promise in offering insights to the government for developing strategies aimed at preventing and managing respiratory infectious diseases effectively.

Study on Assessing Serum Lactate as an Early Prognostic Determinant in Sepsis Outcome.

BACKGROUND: Apart from being one of the main causes of death, sepsis has recently been considered a chronic critical illness. This has resulted in the implementation of standard treatment recommendations for management, with a focus on the initial phases of treatment. Early detection of sepsis and prognostic grading are now crucial for management. Despite the fact that sequential organ failure assessment score (SOFA), acute physiology, and chronic health evaluation II score (APACHE II) have been widely used in sepsis, there have been shortcomings such as feasibility and many lab parameters involved. As a result, this study was conducted to evaluate the role of serum lactate as an early marker and to compare it to current scoring systems for determining the outcome of sepsis. METHODS AND MATERIAL: This was an observational hospital-based study with 60 individuals recruited over a one-year period from July 2021 to June 2022. Serum lactate, as well as the other laboratory tests required for the computation of SOFA and APACHE II, were performed. The baseline data and the trend of lactate vs standard scores were examined in the first 48 hours, as well as their impact on outcomes in sepsis patients (as measured by mortality rates- patients were followed up for 28 days). The diagnostic accuracy of these scores was calculated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The study enrolled 60 people out of a total of 162 people who were screened. The mean age was 48.4 years, with the highest mortality occurring between the ages of 41 and 60 years. Of the total 60 participants, 34 (56.6%) were male, with the respiratory tract being the most common source of infection for sepsis (36.67%). In our study, 46 patients survived while 14 patients died. The mean lactate on admission was 3.1 mmol/L in survivors and 4 mmol/L in non-survivors, whereas APACHE II was 9 and 12.36, and SOFA was 3.63 and 7.79, respectively, in survivors and non-survivors. Serum lactate and prognosis scores were compared in the survivor and non-survivor groups, and the difference in diagnostic accuracy was found to be statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Serum lactate can be used as an early recognition marker in patients with a probability of sepsis and serial lactate monitoring has a similar diagnostic accuracy in predicting outcomes as the traditional prognostic scoring systems SOFA and APACHE II.

Detection of enterovirus D68 among children with severe acute respiratory infection in Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is an important reemerging pathogen that causes severe acute respiratory infection and acute flaccid paralysis, mainly in children. Since 2014, EV-D68 outbreaks have been reported in the United States, Europe, and east Asia; however, no outbreaks have been reported in southeast Asian countries, including Myanmar, during the previous 10 years. METHODS: EV-D68 was detected in nasopharyngeal swabs from children with acute lower respiratory infections in Myanmar. The samples were previously collected from children aged 1 month to 12 years who had been admitted to the Yankin Children Hospital in Yangon, Myanmar, between May 2017 and January 2019. EV-D68 was detected with a newly developed EV-D68-specific real-time PCR assay. The clade was identified by using a phylogenetic tree created with the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. RESULTS: During the study period, nasopharyngeal samples were collected from 570 patients. EV-D68 was detected in 42 samples (7.4 %)-11 samples from 2017 to 31 samples from 2018. The phylogenetic tree revealed that all strains belonged to clade B3, which has been the dominant clade worldwide since 2014. We estimate that ancestors of currently circulating genotypes emerged during the period 1980-2004. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first report of EV-D68 detection in children with acute lower respiratory infections in Yangon, Myanmar, in 2017-2018. Detection and detailed virologic analyses of EV-D68 in southeast Asia is an important aspect of worldwide surveillance and will likely be useful in better understanding the worldwide epidemiologic profile of EV-D68 infection.

Epidemiology of influenza in Nigeria: A secondary analysis of the sentinel surveillance data in Nigeria from 2010 - 2020.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Little is known of the true burden and epidemiology of influenza in Africa. Nigeria has a sentinel surveillance system for influenza virus (IFV). This study seeks to describe the epidemiological characteristics of influenza cases in Nigeria through secondary data analysis of the sentinel surveillance data from 2010 to 2020. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective secondary data analysis of data collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in the four Nigeria Influenza Sentinel Surveillance sites from January 2010 to December 2020. Data was cleaned and analyzed using Microsoft Excel and Epi info 7.2 for frequencies and proportions. The results of the analysis were summarized in tables and charts. RESULTS: A total of 13,828 suspected cases of influenza were recorded at the sentinel sites during the study period. About 10.3% (1421/13,828) of these tested positive for IFV of which 1243 (87.5%) were ILI patients, 175 (12.3%) SARI patients, and 3 (0.2%) novel H1N1 patients. Males accounted for 54.2% (770/1421) of the confirmed cases. The median age of confirmed cases was 3 years (range: <1month-97 years). Children 0-4 years accounted for 69.3% (985/1421) of all cases. The predominant subtypes were B lineage not determined (32.3%), A/H1N1 pdm09 (28.8%) and A/H3 (23.0%). There were periods of sustained transmission in most years with 2011 having the highest number of cases. Overall, there were more cases around January to March and August to November. Heart disease and chronic shortness of breath were the most common co-morbidities identified among confirmed cases. CONCLUSION: Influenza remains a significant cause of respiratory illness, especially among children aged less than 4 years. Influenza cases occur all year round with irregular seasonality in Nigeria. Children less than 4 years and those with co-morbidities should be prioritized for vaccination. Vaccine composition in the country should take cognizance of the prevailing strains which are type B (lineage not determined), A/H1N1 pdm09 and A/H3.

Effectiveness of Immunization Products Against Medically Attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: Generic Protocol for a Test-Negative Case-Control Study.

Monitoring the real-life effectiveness of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) products is of major public health importance. This generic protocol for a test-negative design study aims to address currently envisioned approaches for RSV prevention (monoclonal antibodies and vaccines) to study effectiveness of these products among target groups: children, older adults, and pregnant women. The generic protocol approach was chosen to allow for flexibility in adapting the protocol to a specific setting. This protocol includes severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and acute respiratory infection (ARI), both due to RSV, as end points. These end points can be applied to studies in hospitals, primarily targeting patients with more severe disease, but also to studies in general practitioner clinics targeting ARI.

Machine learning in predicting severe acute respiratory infection outbreaks / Aprendizado de máquina na previsão de surtos de síndrome respiratória aguda grave / Aprendizaje automático en la predicción de brotes de síndrome respiratorio agudo grave

Abstract: Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) outbreaks occur annually, with seasonal peaks varying among geographic regions. Case notification is important to prepare healthcare networks for patient attendance and hospitalization. Thus, health managers need adequate resource planning tools for SARI seasons. This study aims to predict SARI outbreaks based on models generated with machine learning using SARI hospitalization notification data. In this study, data from the reporting of SARI hospitalization cases in Brazil from 2013 to 2020 were used, excluding SARI cases caused by COVID-19. These data were prepared to feed a neural network configured to generate predictive models for time series. The neural network was implemented with a pipeline tool. Models were generated for the five Brazilian regions and validated for different years of SARI outbreaks. By using neural networks, it was possible to generate predictive models for SARI peaks, volume of cases per season, and for the beginning of the pre-epidemic period, with good weekly incidence correlation (R2 = 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95-0.98, for the 2019 season in the Southeastern Brazil). The predictive models achieved a good prediction of the volume of reported cases of SARI; accordingly, 9,936 cases were observed in 2019 in Southern Brazil, and the prediction made by the models showed a median of 9,405 (95%CI: 9,105-9,738). The identification of the period of occurrence of a SARI outbreak is possible using predictive models generated with neural networks and algorithms that employ time series.

Resumo: Surtos de síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) ocorrem anualmente, com picos sazonais variando entre regiões geográficas. A notificação dos casos é importante para preparar as redes de atenção à saúde para o atendimento e internação dos pacientes. Portanto, os gestores de saúde precisam ter ferramentas adequadas de planejamento de recursos para as temporadas de SRAG. Este estudo tem como objetivo prever surtos de SRAG com base em modelos gerados com aprendizado de máquina usando dados de internação por SRAG. Foram incluídos dados sobre casos de hospitalização por SRAG no Brasil de 2013 a 2020, excluindo os casos causados pela COVID-19. Estes dados foram preparados para alimentar uma rede neural configurada para gerar modelos preditivos para séries temporais. A rede neural foi implementada com uma ferramenta de pipeline. Os modelos foram gerados para as cinco regiões brasileiras e validados para diferentes anos de surtos de SRAG. Com o uso de redes neurais, foi possível gerar modelos preditivos para picos de SRAG, volume de casos por temporada e para o início do período pré-epidêmico, com boa correlação de incidência semanal (R2 = 0,97; IC95%: 0,95-0,98, para a temporada de 2019 na Região Sudeste). Os modelos preditivos obtiveram uma boa previsão do volume de casos notificados de SRAG; dessa forma, foram observados 9.936 casos em 2019 na Região Sul, e a previsão feita pelos modelos mostrou uma mediana de 9.405 (IC95%: 9.105-9.738). A identificação do período de ocorrência de um surto de SRAG é possível por meio de modelos preditivos gerados com o uso de redes neurais e algoritmos que aplicam séries temporais.

Resumen: Brotes de síndrome respiratorio agudo grave (SRAG) ocurren todos los años, con picos estacionales que varían entre regiones geográficas. La notificación de los casos es importante para preparar las redes de atención a la salud para el cuidado y hospitalización de los pacientes. Por lo tanto, los gestores de salud deben tener herramientas adecuadas de planificación de recursos para las temporadas de SRAG. Este estudio tiene el objetivo de predecir brotes de SRAG con base en modelos generados con aprendizaje automático utilizando datos de hospitalización por SRAG. Se incluyeron datos sobre casos de hospitalización por SRAG en Brasil desde 2013 hasta 2020, salvo los casos causados por la COVID-19. Se prepararon estos datos para alimentar una red neural configurada para generar modelos predictivos para series temporales. Se implementó la red neural con una herramienta de canalización. Se generaron los modelos para las cinco regiones brasileñas y se validaron para diferentes años de brotes de SRAG. Con el uso de redes neurales, se pudo generar modelos predictivos para los picos de SRAG, el volumen de casos por temporada y para el inicio del periodo pre-epidémico, con una buena correlación de incidencia semanal (R2 = 0,97; IC95%: 0,95-0,98, para la temporada de 2019 en la Región Sudeste). Los modelos predictivos tuvieron una buena predicción del volumen de casos notificados de SRAG; así, se observaron 9.936 casos en 2019 en la Región Sur, y la predicción de los modelos mostró una mediana de 9.405 (IC95%: 9.105-9.738). La identificación del periodo de ocurrencia de un brote de SRAG es posible a través de modelos predictivos generados con el uso de redes neurales y algoritmos que aplican series temporales.

Phylogenetic characteristics and recombination analysis of echovirus 5 associated with severe acute respiratory infection in China.

IMPORTANCE: This study is the first report of echovirus 5 (E5) associated with severe acute respiratory infection and obtained the first E5 whole-genome sequence in China. Combined with the sequences available in the GenBank database, the first genotyping, phylogenetic characteristics, recombination, and genetic evolutionary analysis of E5 was performed in this study. Our findings providing valuable information on global E5 molecular epidemiology.

Implementation of a Surveillance System for Severe Acute Respiratory Infections at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Austria: Protocol for a Retrospective Longitudinal Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of a large number of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases emerging is a global concern. SARI can overwhelm the health care capacity and cause several deaths. Therefore, the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety will explore the feasibility of implementing an automatic electronically based SARI surveillance system at a tertiary care hospital in Austria as part of the hospital network, initiated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. OBJECTIVE: We aim to investigate the availability of routinely collected health record data pertaining to respiratory infections and the optimal approach to use such available data for systematic surveillance of SARI in a real-world setting, describe the characteristics of patients with SARI before and after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, and investigate the feasibility of identifying the risk factors for a severe outcome (intensive care unit admission or death) in patients with SARI. METHODS: We will test the feasibility of a surveillance system, as part of a large European network, at a tertiary care hospital in the province of Lower Austria (called Regional Hospital Wiener Neustadt). It will be a cross-sectional study for the inventory of the electronic data records and implementation of automatic data retrieval for the period of January 2019 through the end of December 2022. The analysis will include an exploration of the database structure, descriptive analysis of the general characteristics of the patients with SARI, estimation of the SARI incidence rate, and assessment of the risk factors and different levels of severity of patients with SARI using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: This will be the first study to assess the feasibility of SARI surveillance at a large 800-bed tertiary care hospital in Austria. It will provide a general overview of the potential for establishing a hospital-based surveillance system for SARI. In addition, if successful, the electronic surveillance will be able to improve the response to early warning signs of new SARI, which will better inform policy makers in strengthening the surveillance system. CONCLUSIONS: The findings will support the expansion of the SARI hospital-based surveillance system to other hospitals in Austria. This network will be of use to Austria in preparing for future pandemics. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/47547.

Clinical characterization of human bocavirus 1 infection in infants hospitalized in an intensive care unit for severe acute respiratory tract disease.

Acute respiratory infections represent the leading cause of morbimortality in children and viruses are the main etiological agents. Here we describe the clinical characteristics and evolution of infants admitted to intensive care unit with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) due to Human Bocavirus 1 mono-infection in patients without previous comorbidity. We also compared them with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases. Of 141 cases included (age 5.43 ± 4.54 months, 52% male), 80% had at least 1 virus detected. RSV was the most frequent in the series (71.6%) followed by HBoV1 (28%). Five cases of HBoV1 mono-detection were identified. Pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome was present in both groups, HBoV1 and RSV. The clinical presentation and evolution of HBoV1 single infection was similar to RSV. HBoV1 should be included among the agents investigated in cases of SARI in infants.

An in-depth appraisal of clinico-biochemical and radiological findings of COVID-19 patients during the COVID-19 pandemic in a dedicated COVID Care Hospital in Eastern India and its outcome in relation to the COVAXIN vaccination status: A 2-year study.

Introduction: COVID-19 pandemic hit Odisha province from April 2020 to December 2020, then from April 2021 to August 2021 and from February 2022 to April 2022 as the first, second, and third waves, respectively, with the most severe form witnessed during the second wave. Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences hospital in Odisha was declared a Dedicated COVID Hospital (DCH) during those three waves and witnessed 9485 cases of admissions among which there were 1214 deaths. COVAXIN vaccination of the vulnerable population was launched in February 2021 onwards. This study has been done to know the clinic-biochemical profiles, radiologic findings of COVID-19 admitted patients, the predictors of mortality in the second wave, and clinical outcomes in the three waves in relation to COVAXIN vaccination status. Material and Methods: This was a serial three-round retrospective study from the electronic medical records using multistage random sampling where we collected and critically analyzed the demographic, and all the relevant possible health data of the cases that consist of 514 cases admitted in three waves. The data from death certificates among the 555 cases in the second wave have been analyzed to conclude predictors of mortality. Results: Mortality increased with age, male gender, comorbidities, and raised C-reactive protein level. High NL ratio, extent of pulmonary involvement. There was a wide variation in incidence and spectrum of illness starting from 79% incidence of mild symptomatic in the initial and third wave, but remained in the range of 35-65% in the second wave, respectively, and the most noticeable symptomatic illness was that of the upper respiratory tract. In fulminant cases, the mode of presentations was severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Males were more sufferers than females. Children had better outcomes compared to adults. COVID-associated coagulopathy had a normal platelet count. Subsequently, in 2021 year onwards vaccination of the vulnerable population was launched in a phased manner that changed the dynamics of the disease outcome by better survival chances despite intercurrent COVID infection by induction of herd immunity. On the contrary, there was a higher prevalence of serious illness among non-vaccinated individuals. While the cases continued during the second wave of the pandemic, long COVID became a clinical entity of symptomatic that persisted or recurred among the COVID illness recovered cases after reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction results for COVID-19 became negative. The symptoms consisted of fatigue, cough, dyspnea as pulmonary manifestations and extra-pulmonary involvement of the cardiac, renal, and central nervous systems and the pulmonary imaging features consisted of interstitial pneumonia, consolidation, cavity pattern, and prone to microbial infection. These events lead to morbidity and admission. Coinciding with the vaccination of all population of Odisha province with the first dose of the vaccine by around the period of the first quarter of 2022, there was a new variant named Omicron responsible in the third wave, in which the majority of the admitted cases had.mild upper respiratory illness. This was not as lethal as its predecessors due to its lower propensity to invade the lungs and blood vessels. Conclusion: Immune dysregulation plays a central role in the pathogenesis of the manifestations. Vaccine-induced protection and the induction of herd immunity played a proactive role in the waning of the severity of clinical presentations.

Establishing severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance in a sentinel hospital, Ireland, 2021 to 2022.

BackgroundIn 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) accelerated development of European-level severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance.AimWe aimed to establish SARI surveillance in one Irish hospital as part of a European network E-SARI-NET.MethodsWe used routine emergency department records to identify cases in one adult acute hospital. The SARI case definition was adapted from the ECDC clinical criteria for a possible COVID-19 case. Clinical data were collected using an online questionnaire. Cases were tested for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), including whole genome sequencing (WGS) on SARS-CoV-2 RNA-positive samples and viral characterisation/sequencing on influenza RNA-positive samples. Descriptive analysis was conducted for SARI cases hospitalised between July 2021 and April 2022.ResultsOverall, we identified 437 SARI cases, the incidence ranged from two to 28 cases per week (0.7-9.2/100,000 hospital catchment population). Of 431 cases tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, 226 (52%) were positive. Of 349 (80%) cases tested for influenza and RSV RNA, 15 (4.3%) were positive for influenza and eight (2.3%) for RSV. Using WGS, we identified Delta- and Omicron-dominant periods. The resource-intensive nature of manual clinical data collection, specimen management and laboratory supply shortages for influenza and RSV testing were challenging.ConclusionWe successfully established SARI surveillance as part of E-SARI-NET. Expansion to additional sentinel sites is planned following formal evaluation of the existing system. SARI surveillance requires multidisciplinary collaboration, automated data collection where possible, and dedicated personnel resources, including for specimen management.