Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF-RCM.

This study assessed the projected near-surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20 km), known as WRF-CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985-2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF-CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under high shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF-CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st-century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution.

Surface Wind Speed Changes and Their Potential Impact on Wind Energy Resources Across China During 1961-2021.

Enabling the rational use of energy and the realization of the "dual carbon goals" across China will require systematic analysis of temporal and spatial changes in surface wind speed (SWS), determination of key factors influencing SWS, and quantification of wind energy resources. We investigated changes of SWS and their potential impact on wind energy resources using daily SWS data from meteorological observations and based on wind power density (WPD) across China during 1961-2021. The SWS changes were related to atmospheric circulation, surface friction (urbanization and vegetation changes), aerosol emissions and the replacement of observation instruments. The increase of SWS after 2015 was closely related to changes of atmospheric circulation that were reflected by changes of Asian Meridional Circulation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation. Compared with the mean SWS, the extreme SWS exhibited a more obvious downward trend and earlier abrupt change. The annual mean SWS decreased by 16.80% in the last six decades, resulting in a decrease of 47.78% in wind energy potential. Regions with annual WPD more than 100 W · m-2 were mainly in western China, northeastern China, northwestern China and some coastal areas. The WPD decreased mainly in northeastern China, northern China, and some coastal areas during the last six decades; it increased mainly in western China. Regions with annual WPD more than 100 W · m-2 and robust coefficient of variation less than 0.5 are high-quality wind energy resource areas and were found mainly in western China, northern China, northeast China, and coastal areas.

Evaluation of global terrestrial near-surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections.

We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near-surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well. Based on projections of CESM2, the global NSWS will decrease from 2021 to 2100 under all three SSPs. The projected NSWS declines significantly over the north of 20°N, especially across North America, Europe, and the mid-to-high latitudes of Asia; meanwhile, it increases over the south of 20°N. Under SSP585, there would be more light-windy days and fewer strong-windy days than those under SSP245, which leads to a significant global NSWS decline. Robust hemispheric-asymmetric changes in the NSWS could be due to the temperature gradient in the two hemispheres under global warming, with -1.2%, -3.5%, and -4.1% in the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, for the near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060), and long-term (2081-2100), respectively.

Urbanization Effects on Surface Wind in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Using a Fan-Sector Method.

Surface wind directly affects human life, wind energy utilization, the atmospheric environment, and many other aspects. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) megalopolis is experiencing an accelerated progress of urbanization, which may result in the change in surface roughness and atmospheric characteristics. In this study, urbanization effects on surface wind speed (SWS) in the GBA megalopolis, particularly Zhuhai, is investigated by using long-term automatic meteorological measurements, ERA5 reanalysis, and nighttime light data. Results of the analysis show that the averaged SWS has decreased significantly at a rate of -0.53 m s-1 per decade over the past decades. With the help of observation-minus-reanalysis (OMR) method, which excludes the atmospheric circulation effects, we found that the decrease in SWS is mainly contributed by the increase in surface roughness, which may account for as much as 75.5% of the decrease. In other words, it is the rapid development of urbanization, rather than the change in large-scale circulation, that could be mainly responsible for the decrease over the GBA in the context of the increasing global SWS since 2010. In addition, a fan-sector method is established to quantitatively analyze the correspondences between urbanization and roughness changes. It is shown that the decrease in wind speed due to surface roughness change is significantly related to the increase in the nighttime light index (NLI) averaged over the 3 km upstream fan-sectors. Moreover, their correlation reaches to 0.36 (negative) when only accounting for the samples of NLI greater than 10. In general, the fan-sector method offers an additional option for assessing the urbanization effects on SWS.

Meteorological factors affecting refueling of European Robin (Erithacus rubecula) during migrations.

Weather ultimately affects avian migration. The significance of meteorological variables is relatively well known for flights of migrants and for departure/landing decisions at stopover sites. Success of migration greatly depends on storage of fat and body mass gain at stopovers; however, the influence of weather on refueling at stopovers is surprisingly poorly studied. We tested the hypothesis that body mass change of European Robins during their migratory stopovers is affected by meteorological factors (air temperature, precipitations, surface wind speed), along with other ecological variables. We used data on body mass change in 9743 individuals (5147in spring and 4587 in the fall) captured and recaptured within the same day on the Courish Spit of the Baltic Sea in 1994-2003. Fuel deposition rate in Robins was positively associated with air temperature and with higher amount of precipitation. Wind speed did not influence the refueling efficiency of our study species. Also, fuel deposition rate of Robins was affected by age (higher in adults than in first-year birds), negatively influenced by the number of conspecifics at stopover, influenced by the progress of the season (negatively in spring and positively in fall), and negatively influenced by initial energy reserves of migrants, when birds in poor energy condition were more likely to gain weight than birds with large fuel stores. This study shows that refueling of Robins on migration stopovers is substantially affected by meteorological factors that should be taken in to account for comprehensive understanding of stopover ecology and migration strategy of songbird migrants.