The intricacies of vegetation responses to changing moisture conditions.

A long-standing debate looks at whether air or soil dryness is more limiting to vegetation water use and productivity. The answer has large implications for future ecosystem functioning, as atmospheric dryness is predicted to increase globally while changes in soil moisture are predicted to be far more variable. Here, I review the complexities that contribute to this debate, including the strong coupling between atmospheric and soil dryness, and the widespread heterogeneity in vegetation hydraulic traits, acclimations, and adaptations to water stress. I discuss solutions to improve understanding and modeling of vegetation sensitivity to dryness, including how different types of observational data can be used together to gain insight into vegetation response to water stress across spatial and temporal scales.

Eddy covariance measurements reveal a decreased carbon sequestration strength 2010-2022 in an African semiarid savanna.

Monitoring the changes of ecosystem functioning is pivotal for understanding the global carbon cycle. Despite its size and contribution to the global carbon cycle, Africa is largely understudied in regard to ongoing changes of its ecosystem functioning and their responses to climate change. One of the reasons is the lack of long-term in situ data. Here, we use eddy covariance to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components-gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) for years 2010-2022 for a Sahelian semiarid savanna to study trends in the fluxes. Significant negative trends were found for NEE (12.7 ± 2.8 g C m2 year-1), GPP (39.6 ± 7.9 g C m2 year-1), and Reco (32.2 ± 8.9 g C m2 year-1). We found that NEE decreased by 60% over the study period, and this decrease was mainly caused by stronger negative trends in rainy season GPP than in Reco. Additionally, we observed strong increasing trends in vapor pressure deficit, but no trends in rainfall or soil water content. Thus, a proposed explanation for the decrease in carbon sink strength is increasing atmospheric dryness. The warming climate in the Sahel, coupled with increasing evaporative demand, may thus lead to decreased GPP levels across this biome, and lowering its CO2 sequestration.

Compound hot-dry events greatly prolong the recovery time of dryland ecosystems.

Compound hot-dry events cause more severe impacts on terrestrial ecosystems than dry events, while the differences in recovery time (ΔRT) between hot-dry and dry events and their contributing factors remain unclear. Both remote sensing observations and eddy covariance measurements reveal that hot-dry events prolong the recovery time compared with dry events, with greater prolongation of recovery time in drylands than in humid regions. Random forest regression modeling demonstrates that the difference in vapor pressure deficit between hot-dry and dry events, with an importance score of 35%, is the major factor contributing to ΔRT. The severity of stomatal restriction exceeds that of non-stomatal limitation, which restricts the vegetation productivity that is necessary for the recovery process. These results emphasize the negative effect of vapor pressure deficit on vegetation recovery during hot-dry events and project an extension of drought recovery time considering elevated vapor pressure deficit in a warming world.

Different model assumptions about plant hydraulics and photosynthetic temperature acclimation yield diverging implications for tropical forest gross primary production under warming.

Tropical forest photosynthesis can decline at high temperatures due to (1) biochemical responses to increasing temperature and (2) stomatal responses to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is associated with increasing temperature. It is challenging to disentangle the influence of these two mechanisms on photosynthesis in observations, because temperature and VPD are tightly correlated in tropical forests. Nonetheless, quantifying the relative strength of these two mechanisms is essential for understanding how tropical gross primary production (GPP) will respond to climate change, because increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration may partially offset VPD-driven stomatal responses, but is not expected to mitigate the effects of temperature-driven biochemical responses. We used two terrestrial biosphere models to quantify how physiological process assumptions (photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulic stress) and functional traits (e.g., maximum xylem conductivity) influence the relative strength of modeled temperature versus VPD effects on light-saturated GPP at an Amazonian forest site, a seasonally dry tropical forest site, and an experimental tropical forest mesocosm. By simulating idealized climate change scenarios, we quantified the divergence in GPP predictions under model configurations with stronger VPD effects compared with stronger direct temperature effects. Assumptions consistent with stronger direct temperature effects resulted in larger GPP declines under warming, while assumptions consistent with stronger VPD effects resulted in more resilient GPP under warming. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the role of direct temperature and indirect VPD effects for projecting the resilience of tropical forests in the future, and demonstrate that the relative strength of temperature versus VPD effects in models is highly sensitive to plant functional parameters and structural assumptions about photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulics.

Comparative analysis of water-use strategies in three subtropical mangrove species: a study of sap flow and gas exchange monitoring.

Water-use strategies play a crucial role in the adaptive capabilities of mangroves to the saline intertidal conditions, yet the intricacies of daily water-use patterns in mangrove species, which are pivotal for maintaining water balance, remain poorly understood. In this comprehensive study, we aimed to clarify the water use strategies of three co-occurring mangrove species, Avicennia marina, Aegiceras corniculatum and Kandelia obovata, through stem sap flow monitoring, leaf gas exchange and stem diameter change measurements. Our findings revealed that the daily sap flow density of Avicennia and Aegiceras reached the peak about 1 h earlier than that of Kandelia. When transpiration was strong, Kandelia and Aegiceras used stem storage to meet water demand, while Avicennia synchronized stem water storage. These three mangrove species adopted cross-peak water used and unique stem water storage to regulate their water balance. In Kandelia, the daily sap flow in per sapwood area was significantly lower, while water-use efficiency was significantly higher than those of Avicennia and Aegiceras, indicating that Kandelia adopted a more conservative and efficient water-use strategy. Sap flow in Avicennia was the most sensitive to environmental changes, while Kandelia limited water dissipation by tightly controlling stomata. Meteorological factors (photosynthetically active radiation, vapor pressure deficit and air temperature) were the main driving factors of sap flow. The increase of soil temperature can promote the water use of mangrove species, while the increase of salinity resulted in more conservative water use. Our results highlight the diversity of daily water-use strategies among the three co-occurring mangrove species, pinpointing Kandelia as the most adaptive at navigating the changing conditions of intertidal habitats in the future climate. In conclusion, our findings provide a mesoscale perspective on water-use characteristics of mangroves and also provides theoretical basis for mangroves afforestation and ecological restoration.

Simulating atmospheric drought: Silica gel packets dehumidify mesocosm microclimates.

As global temperatures rise, droughts are becoming more frequent and severe. To predict how drought might affect plant communities, ecologists have traditionally designed drought experiments with controlled watering regimes and rainout shelters. Both treatments have proven effective for simulating soil drought. However, neither are designed to directly modify atmospheric drought. Here, we detail the efficacy of a silica gel atmospheric drought treatment in outdoor mesocosms with and without a co-occurring soil drought treatment. At California State University, Los Angeles, we monitored relative humidity, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit every 10 min for 5 months in bare-ground, open-top mesocosms treated with soil drought (reduced watering) and/or atmospheric drought (silica dehumidification packets suspended 12 cm above soil). We found that silica packets dehumidified these mesocosm microclimates most effectively (-5% RH) when combined with reduced soil water, regardless of the ambient humidity levels of the surrounding air. Further, packets increased microclimate vapor pressure deficit most effectively (+0.4 kPa) when combined with reduced soil water and ambient air temperatures above 20°C. Finally, packets simulated atmospheric drought most consistently when replaced within 3 days of deployment. Our results demonstrate the use of silica packets as effective dehumidification agents in outdoor drought experiments. We emphasize that incorporating atmospheric drought in existing soil drought experiments can improve our understandings of the ecological impacts of drought.

Forest plant indicator values for moisture reflect atmospheric vapour pressure deficit rather than soil water content.

Soil moisture shapes ecological patterns and processes, but it is difficult to continuously measure soil moisture variability across the landscape. To overcome these limitations, soil moisture is often bioindicated using community-weighted means of the Ellenberg indicator values of vascular plant species. However, the ecology and distribution of plant species reflect soil water supply as well as atmospheric water demand. Therefore, we hypothesized that Ellenberg moisture values can also reflect atmospheric water demand expressed as a vapour pressure deficit (VPD). To test this hypothesis, we disentangled the relationships among soil water content, atmospheric vapour pressure deficit, and Ellenberg moisture values in the understory plant communities of temperate broadleaved forests in central Europe. Ellenberg moisture values reflected atmospheric VPD rather than soil water content consistently across local, landscape, and regional spatial scales, regardless of vegetation plot size, depth as well as method of soil moisture measurement. Using in situ microclimate measurements, we discovered that forest plant indicator values for moisture reflect an atmospheric VPD rather than soil water content. Many ecological patterns and processes correlated with Ellenberg moisture values and previously attributed to soil water supply are thus more likely driven by atmospheric water demand.

Preserving isohydricity: vertical environmental variability explains Amazon forest water-use strategies.

Increases in hydrological extremes, including drought, are expected for Amazon forests. A fundamental challenge for predicting forest responses lies in identifying ecological strategies which underlie such responses. Characterization of species-specific hydraulic strategies for regulating water-use, thought to be arrayed along an 'isohydric-anisohydric' spectrum, is a widely used approach. However, recent studies have questioned the usefulness of this classification scheme, because its metrics are strongly influenced by environments, and hence can lead to divergent classifications even within the same species. Here, we propose an alternative approach positing that individual hydraulic regulation strategies emerge from the interaction of environments with traits. Specifically, we hypothesize that the vertical forest profile represents a key gradient in drought-related environments (atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, soil water availability) that drives divergent tree water-use strategies for coordinated regulation of stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf water potentials (ΨL) with tree rooting depth, a proxy for water availability. Testing this hypothesis in a seasonal eastern Amazon forest in Brazil, we found that hydraulic strategies indeed depend on height-associated environments. Upper canopy trees, experiencing high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), but stable soil water access through deep rooting, exhibited isohydric strategies, defined by little seasonal change in the diurnal pattern of gs and steady seasonal minimum ΨL. In contrast, understory trees, exposed to less variable VPD but highly variable soil water availability, exhibited anisohydric strategies, with fluctuations in diurnal gs that increased in the dry season along with increasing variation in ΨL. Our finding that canopy height structures the coordination between drought-related environmental stressors and hydraulic traits provides a basis for preserving the applicability of the isohydric-to-anisohydric spectrum, which we show here may consistently emerge from environmental context. Our work highlights the importance of understanding how environmental heterogeneity structures forest responses to climate change, providing a mechanistic basis for improving models of tropical ecosystems.

Characteristics and drivers of vegetation productivity sensitivity to increasing CO2 at Northern Middle and High Latitudes.

Understanding and accurately predicting how the sensitivity of terrestrial vegetation productivity to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (ß) is crucial for assessing carbon sink dynamics. However, the temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of ß remain uncertain. Here, observational and CMIP6 modeling evidence suggest a decreasing trend in ß at the Northern Middle and High Latitudes during the historical period of 1982-2015 (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1). This decreasing trend is projected to persist until the end of the 21st century (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP370 and -0.166 ± 0.006% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP585). The declining ß indicates a weakening capacity of vegetation to mitigate warming climates, posing challenges for achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The rise in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), that triggers stomata closure and weakens photosynthesis, is considered as the dominated factor contributing to the historical and future decline in ß, accounting for 62.3%-75.2% of the effect. Nutrient availability and water availability contribute 15.7%-21.4% and 8.5%-16.3%, respectively. These findings underscore the significant role of VPD in shaping terrestrial carbon sink dynamics, an aspect that is currently insufficiently considered in many climate and ecological models.

Atmospheric drought dominates changes in global water use efficiency.

Water use efficiency (defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity to plant transpiration, WUET) describes the tradeoff between ecosystem carbon uptake and water loss. However, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of soil and atmospheric moisture deficits on WUET across large regions remains incomplete. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) serves as an effective signal for measuring both terrestrial vegetation photosynthesis and transpiration, thereby enabling a rapid response to changes in the physiological status of plants under water stress. The objectives of this study were to: 1) mechanistically calculate WUET using top-of-canopy SIF data and meteorological information by using the revised mechanistic light response model and the Penman-Monteith equation; 2) analyze the effects of atmospheric and soil water deficits on SIF-based WUET by using decoupled soil water content (SWC) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD); 3) evaluate estimated SIF-based WUET against data from 28 eddy covariance (EC) flux sites representing eight different vegetation types. Results indicated that the model performed well in ecosystems with dense canopies, explaining 56 % of the daily variability in EC tower-based WUET. For the years 2019-2020, the global average WUET derived from SIF was 3.49 g C/kg H2O. Notably, this value exceeded 4 g C/kg H2O in tropical rainforest regions near the equator and went beyond 5 g C/kg H2O in the high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. We found that SIF-based WUET was primarily influenced by VPD rather than SWC in over 90 % of the global vegetated area. The model used in this study increased our ability to mechanistically estimate WUET with SIF at the global scale, thereby highlighting the significance of the global response of SIF-based WUET to water stress, and also enhancing our understanding of the water­carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems.

The stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit drives the apparent temperature response of photosynthesis in tropical forests.

As temperature rises, net carbon uptake in tropical forests decreases, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. High temperatures can limit photosynthesis directly, for example by reducing biochemical capacity, or indirectly through rising vapor pressure deficit (VPD) causing stomatal closure. To explore the independent effects of temperature and VPD on photosynthesis we analyzed photosynthesis data from the upper canopies of two tropical forests in Panama with Generalized Additive Models. Stomatal conductance and photosynthesis consistently decreased with increasing VPD, and statistically accounting for VPD increased the optimum temperature of photosynthesis (Topt) of trees from a VPD-confounded apparent Topt of c. 30-31°C to a VPD-independent Topt of c. 33-36°C, while for lianas no VPD-independent Topt was reached within the measured temperature range. Trees and lianas exhibited similar temperature and VPD responses in both forests, despite 1500 mm difference in mean annual rainfall. Over ecologically relevant temperature ranges, photosynthesis in tropical forests is largely limited by indirect effects of warming, through changes in VPD, not by direct warming effects of photosynthetic biochemistry. Failing to account for VPD when determining Topt misattributes the underlying causal mechanism and thereby hinders the advancement of mechanistic understanding of global warming effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics.

A medida que aumenta la temperatura, disminuye la absorción neta de carbono en los bosques tropicales, sin embargo, aún no se conocen bien los mecanismos que la subyacen. Las altas temperaturas pueden limitar la fotosíntesis directamente, por ejemplo, reduciendo la eficiencia de los procesos bioquímicos, pero también de forma indirecta a través del aumento del déficit de presión de vapor (DPV) que resulta en el cierre estomático. Para explorar los efectos independientes de la temperatura y el DPV en la fotosíntesis, analizamos datos de la absorción neta de carbono del dosel de dos bosques tropicales en Panamá utilizando modelos aditivos generalizados. La conductancia estomática y la fotosíntesis disminuyó consistentemente con el aumento de DPV, y considerando el DPV en modelas estadísticas, la temperatura óptima de la fotosíntesis (Topt) aumentó, de un Topt aparente influida por la DVP de c. 30­31°C a un Topt independiente del DPV de c. 33­36°C. Los árboles y las lianas mostraron respuestas similares a la temperatura y a la DVP en ambos bosques, a pesar de la diferencia de 1500 mm en la precipitación media anual. La fotosíntesis en los bosques tropicales está limitada en gran medida por los efectos indirectos del aumento de la temperatura, a través de cambios en el DPV y no por los efectos directos en los procesos bioquímicos. Si no se tiene en cuenta el DPV al determinar el Topt, se atribuye erróneamente el mecanismo causal subyacente y, por lo tanto, se obstaculiza el avance en la comprensión de los efectos del calentamiento global en la dinámica del carbono.

Large-scale remote sensing analysis reveals an increasing coupling of grassland vitality to atmospheric water demand.

Grasslands provide important ecosystem services to society, including biodiversity, water security, erosion control, and forage production. Grasslands are also vulnerable to droughts, rendering their future vitality under climate change uncertain. Yet, the grassland response to drought is not well understood, especially for heterogeneous Central European grasslands. We here fill this gap by quantifying the spatiotemporal sensitivity of grasslands to drought using a novel remote sensing dataset from Landsat/Sentinel-2 paired with climate re-analysis data. Specifically, we quantified annual grassland vitality at fine spatial scale and national extent (Germany) from 1985 to 2021. We analyzed grassland sensitivity to drought by testing for statistically robust links between grassland vitality and common drought indices. We furthermore explored the spatiotemporal variability of drought sensitivity for 12 grassland habitat types given their different biotic and abiotic features. Grassland vitality maps revealed a large-scale reduction of grassland vitality during past droughts. The unprecedented drought of 2018-2019 stood out as the largest multi-year vitality decline since the mid-1980s. Grassland vitality was consistently coupled to drought (R2 = .09-.22) with Vapor Pressure Deficit explaining vitality best. This suggests that high atmospheric water demand, as observed during recent compounding drought and heatwave events, has major impacts on grassland vitality in Central Europe. We found a significant increase in drought sensitivity over time with highest sensitivities detected in periods of extremely high atmospheric water demand, suggesting that drought impacts on grasslands are becoming more severe with ongoing climate change. The spatial variability of grassland drought sensitivity was linked to different habitat types, with declining sensitivity from dry and mesic to wet habitats. Our study provides the first large-scale, long-term, and spatially explicit evidence of increasing drought sensitivities of Central European grasslands. With rising compound droughts and heatwaves under climate change, large-scale grassland vitality loss, as in 2018-2019, will thus become more likely in the future.

Microrefugia and microclimate: Unraveling decoupling potential and resistance to heatwaves.

Microrefugia, defined as small areas maintaining populations of species outside their range margins during environmental extremes, are increasingly recognized for their role in conserving species in the face of climate change. Understanding their microclimatic dynamics becomes crucial with global warming leading to severe temperature and precipitation changes. This study investigates the phenomenon of short-term climatic decoupling within microrefugia and its implications for plant persistence in the Mediterranean region of southeastern France. We focus on microrefugia's ability to climatically disconnect from macroclimatic trends, examining temperature and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) dynamics in microrefugia, adjacent control plots, and weather stations. Our study encompasses both "normal" conditions and heatwave episodes to explore the role of microrefugia as thermal and moisture insulators during extreme events. Landscape attributes such as relative elevation, solar radiation, distance to streams, and vegetation height are investigated for their contribution to short-term decoupling. Our results demonstrate that microrefugia exhibit notable decoupling from macroclimatic trends. This effect is maintained during heatwaves, underscoring microrefugia's vital role in responding to climatic extremes. Importantly, microrefugia maintain lower VPD levels than their surroundings outside and during heatwaves, potentially mitigating water stress for plants. This study advances our understanding of microclimate dynamics within microrefugia and underscores their ecological importance for plant persistence in a changing climate. As heatwaves become more frequent and severe, our findings provide insights into the role of microrefugia in buffering but also decoupling against extreme climatic events and, more generally, against climate warming. This knowledge emphasizes the need to detect and protect existing microrefugia, as they can be integrated into conservation strategies and climate change adaptation plans.

Effects of meteorological factors and groundwater depths on sap flow density of Populus euphratica in a desert oasis, Taklamakan Desert, China.

Accurate estimation of desert vegetation transpiration is key to regulating desert water resources of desert ecosystems. Sap flow density (SFD) can indirectly reflect a tree's transpiration consumption, and it has been affected by climate warming and groundwater depths in desert ecosystems. Sap flow responses to meteorological conditions and groundwater depths are further affected by tree of different sizes. However, how meteorological factors and groundwater depths affects tree sap flow among tree sizes remains poorly understand. In this study, a 50 × 50 m P. euphratica stand was selected as a sample plot in the hinterland of the Taklamakan Desert, and the SFD of P. euphratica of different sizes was measured continuously using the thermal diffusion technique from May to October of 2021 and 2022. The results showed that SFD of large P. euphratica was consistently higher than that of small P. euphratica in 2021 and 2022. and the SFD of P. euphratica was significantly and positively correlated with solar radiation (Rad) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and the correlation was higher than that of the air temperature (Ta) and relative humidity (RH), and also showed a strong non-linear relationship. Analysis of the hour-by-hour relationship between P. euphratica SFD and VPD and Rad showed a strong hysteresis. Throughout the growing season, there was no significant relationship between SFD of P. euphratica and groundwater depth, VPD and Rad were still the main controlling factors of SFD in different groundwater depths. However, during the period of relative groundwater deficit, the effect of groundwater depth on the SFD of P. euphratica increased, and the small P. euphratica was more sensitive, indicating that the small P. euphratica was more susceptible to groundwater changes. This study emphasized that Rad and VPD were the main drivers of SFD during the growing season, as well as differences in the response of different sizes of P. euphratica to groundwater changes. The results of the study provide a scientific basis for future modeling of transpiration consumption in P. euphratica forests in desert oases, as well as the regulation and allocation of water resources.

Atmospheric drying and soil drying: Differential effects on grass community composition.

Global surface temperatures are projected to increase in the future; this will modify regional precipitation regimes and increase global atmospheric drying. Despite many drought studies examining the consequences of reduced precipitation, there are few experimental studies exploring plant responses to atmospheric drying via relative humidity and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We examined eight native California perennial grass species grown in pots in a greenhouse in Los Angeles, California for 34 weeks. All pots were well-watered for 21 weeks, at which point we reduced watering to zero and recorded daily growth and dormancy for 3 weeks. We used this information to better understand the drought tolerance of our species in a larger soil drying × atmospheric drying experiment. In this larger experiment, we grew all eight species together in outdoor mesocosms and measured changes in community composition after 4 years of growth. Soil drying in our small pot experiment mirrored compositional shifts in the larger experiment. Namely, our most drought-tolerant species in our pot experiment was Poa secunda, due to a summer dormancy strategy. Similarly, the grass community shifted toward P. secunda in the driest soils as P. secunda was mostly unaffected by either soil drying or atmospheric drying. We found that some species responded strongly to soil drying (Elymus glaucus, Festuca idahoensis, and Hordeum b. californicum), while others responded strongly to atmospheric drying (Bromus carinatus and Stipa cernua). As result, community composition shifted in different and interacting ways in response to soil drying, atmospheric drying, and their combination. Further study of community responses to increasing atmospheric aridity is an essential next step to predicting the future consequences of climate change.

Contrasting impact of extreme soil and atmospheric dryness on the functioning of trees and forests.

Recent studies indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme compound dryness days (days with both extreme soil AND air dryness) across central Europe in the future, with little information on their impact on the functioning of trees and forests. This study aims to quantify and assess the impact of extreme soil dryness, extreme air dryness, and extreme compound dryness on the functioning of trees and forests. For this, >15 years of ecosystem-level (carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes) and 6-10 years of tree-level measurements (transpiration and growth) each from a montane mixed deciduous forest (CH-Lae) and a subalpine evergreen coniferous forest (CH-Dav) in Switzerland, is used. The results showed extreme air dryness limitation on CO2 fluxes and extreme soil dryness limitations on water vapor fluxes. Additionally, CH-Dav was mainly affected by extreme air dryness whereas CH-Lae was affected by both extreme soil dryness and extreme air dryness. The impact of extreme compound dryness on net CO2 uptake (about 75 % decrease) was more due to higher increased ecosystem respiration (40 % and 70 % increase at CH-Dav and CH-Lae, respectively) than decreased gross primary productivity (10 % and 40 % decrease at CH-Dav and CH-Lae, respectively). A significant negative impact on evapotranspiration and transpiration was only observed at CH-Lae during extreme soil and compound dryness (about 25 % decrease). Furthermore, with some differences, the tree-level impact on tree water deficit, transpiration, and growth were consistent with the ecosystem-level impact on carbon uptake and evapotranspiration. Finally, the impact of extreme dryness showed no significant relationship with tree allometry (diameter and height) but across different tree species. The projected future is likely to expose these forest areas to more extreme and frequent dryness conditions, thus compromising the functioning of trees and forests, thereby calling for management interventions to increase the adaptive capacity and resistance of these forests.

Geospatial patterns in runoff projections using random forest based forecasting of time-series data for the mid-Atlantic region of the United States.

This research explores the geospatial patterns of historical runoff for the period 1958-2021 in the Mid-Atlantic region and uses these time-series data plus nine external climatic and hydrologic variables to predict future runoff for the period 2022-2031. Gridded, average monthly climatic water balance data were obtained from the TerraClimate dataset. A cluster analysis of the long term (1958-2021) historical runoff found 13 significant temporal trends, which tend to form large contiguous regions associated with climate gradients and topographic patterns. The runoff time-series clusters, and the associated time-series of 9 TerraClimate variables, were used to generate random forest based forecast models to predict future (2022-2031) runoff. The random forest-based forecast with the greatest accuracy included inputs of actual evapotranspiration, climate water deficit, minimum, average, and maximum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. The final model predicted significantly increasing runoff in nine of the 13 clusters.

Simulating atmospheric drought: Silica gel packets dehumidify mesocosm microclimates.

1. As global temperatures rise, droughts are becoming more frequent and severe. To predict how drought might affect plant communities, ecologists have traditionally designed experiments with controlled watering regimes and rainout shelters. Both treatments have proven effective for simulating soil drought. However, neither are designed to directly modify atmospheric drought. 2. Here, we detail the efficacy of a silica gel atmospheric drought treatment in outdoor mesocosms with and without a cooccurring soil drought treatment. At California State University, Los Angeles, we monitored relative humidity (RH), temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) every 10 minutes for five months in a bare-ground experiment featuring mesocosms treated with soil drought (reduced watering) and/or atmospheric drought (silica packets suspended 12 cm above soil). 3. We found that silica packets dehumidified these microclimates most effectively (-5% RH) when combined with reduced soil water, regardless of the ambient humidity levels of the surrounding air. Further, packets increased microclimate VPD most effectively (+0.4 kPa) when combined with reduced soil water and ambient air temperatures above 20°C. Finally, packets simulated atmospheric drought most consistently when replaced within three days of deployment. 4. Our results demonstrate the use of silica packets as effective dehumidification agents in outdoor drought experiments. We emphasize that incorporating atmospheric drought in existing soil drought experiments can improve our understandings of the ecological impacts of drought.