The health behaviors differences among male and female school-age adolescents in the Middle East and North Africa region countries: a meta-analysis of the Global School-based Student Health Survey data.

Background: Understanding gender disparities in adolescent health behaviors is crucial for developing targeted health promotion strategies. This study uses data from the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) across 17 MENA countries to analyze gender differences in adolescent health behaviors, aiming to provide a comprehensive overview for both boys and girls. Methods: This meta-analysis incorporates data from recent years of the GSHS, covering 17 MENA countries. The objective was to assess and compare health behaviors between adolescent girls and boys. A random-effects model was employed to calculate odds ratios for gender comparisons in these behaviors. Statistical analyses and modeling were performed using JAMOVI software. Results: In most MENA countries, boys consumed more vegetables compared to girls. Girls were less likely to frequent fast food establishments (OR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.69-0.98) and generally exhibited better self-care behaviors. Boys reported a higher prevalence of physical altercations (OR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.88-2.51) and were more involved in fights (OR = 3.00, 95% CI: 2.46-3.67). Girls were more likely to miss school without permission and were consistently described as kinder and more helpful across various income levels. However, in some countries such as Oman and Tunisia, boys missed school more frequently. There were no significant gender differences in parental oversight of homework or knowledge of students' activities, but girls were reported to have stronger parental relationships and better parental understanding of their problems and free time, with exceptions in Morocco and the Palestinian Territory-Gaza. Boys were more likely to engage in smoking (OR = 3.57, 95% CI: 2.69-4.76) and other substance use. Conversely, girls reported higher levels of physical inactivity and loneliness, but also demonstrated greater kindness and helpfulness in school settings and stronger parental relationships. Conclusion: Policymakers in the MENA region should develop and implement gender-specific interventions targeting key areas such as hygiene practices, physical activity, and substance use. By focusing on these targeted strategies, they can address the distinct health behaviors and needs of both boys and girls. Effective interventions in these areas are crucial for improving overall health outcomes and promoting healthier lifestyles, thereby enhancing adolescent health and well-being across the region.

Temporal trends in lower extremity amputation in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: analysis of the GBD dataset 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Lower extremity amputations (LEAs) significantly contribute to mortality and morbidity, often resulting from peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus (DM). Traumatic injuries also account for many LEAs. Despite the global burden, the epidemiology of LEAs, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, remains underexplored. This study utilizes the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset to analyze temporal trends in LEAs in the MENA region from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: The study utilized the 2019 GBD dataset, which includes estimates for incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across 369 diseases. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for LEAs were extracted for 21 MENA countries. Trends were analyzed using percentage change calculations and Joinpoint regression to identify significant shifts in LEA rates over time. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, male LEA rates generally decreased, while female rates increased. Significant increases in LEA rates were observed in Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan, correlating with periods of conflict and instability. Conversely, countries like Iraq, Palestine, Sudan, Lebanon, Iran, and Kuwait saw marked decreases. The study highlighted a complex interplay of socio-political factors, natural disasters, and chronic diseases like DM in shaping LEA trends across the region. CONCLUSION: The study reveals variable LEA trends in the MENA region, influenced by conflicts, natural disasters, and chronic diseases. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health interventions, improved healthcare access, and robust data collection systems to reduce the burden of LEAs and improve patient outcomes in the MENA region.

The Worrying Phenomenon of COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Its Negative Impact on Pandemic Control Efforts: Common Themes that Emerged in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region.

Since the declaration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic, intensive measures were taken to mitigate its negative health, psychological, social, and economic impact. COVID-19 continues to pose serious threats globally, with vaccination as the central safe strategy to control the pandemic. However, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is a major concern, especially in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Concerns regarding vaccine safety, efficacy, and misinformation contribute to vaccine hesitancy. Addressing these concerns and providing accurate information is crucial for increasing COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake in this region, where the coverage is low. Variable rates of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy were found in the numerous studies conducted in the region. Complex factors contributed to vaccination hesitancy in the region including concerns about COVID-19 vaccine safety and efficacy, low trust in healthcare systems, complacency toward the risks of COVID-19, constraints hindering access to COVID-19 vaccination services, as well as the circulation of misinformation and conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 and its vaccination. Effective approaches to address COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the MENA region rely on developing evidence-based communication strategies that are recommended to build trust in vaccination, highlight the disease risks, and counter COVID-19 vaccine-related misinformation. Ensuring COVID-19 vaccine affordability is also necessary besides the cautious consideration of implementing COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Based on the preceding discussion, this chapter aims to identify the common themes of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the MENA region. In addition, the chapter highlights the importance of understanding the root causes of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy and its associated determinants to develop effective strategies for promoting COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake in the MENA region. To build community trust, promote community education and awareness, and counter misinformation for better COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the region, it is recommended to involve healthcare professionals and policymakers.

General and abdominal adiposity and hypertension in eight world regions: a pooled analysis of 837 population-based studies with 7·5 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Adiposity can be measured using BMI (which is based on weight and height) as well as indices of abdominal adiposity. We examined the association between BMI and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) within and across populations of different world regions and quantified how well these two metrics discriminate between people with and without hypertension. METHODS: We used data from studies carried out from 1990 to 2023 on BMI, WHtR and hypertension in people aged 20-64 years in representative samples of the general population in eight world regions. We graphically compared the regional distributions of BMI and WHtR, and calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients between BMI and WHtR within each region. We used mixed-effects linear regression to estimate the extent to which WHtR varies across regions at the same BMI. We graphically examined the prevalence of hypertension and the distribution of people who have hypertension both in relation to BMI and WHtR, and we assessed how closely BMI and WHtR discriminate between participants with and without hypertension using C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). FINDINGS: The correlation between BMI and WHtR ranged from 0·76 to 0·89 within different regions. After adjusting for age and BMI, mean WHtR was highest in south Asia for both sexes, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. Mean WHtR was lowest in central and eastern Europe for both sexes, in the high-income western region for women, and in Oceania for men. Conversely, to achieve an equivalent WHtR, the BMI of the population of south Asia would need to be, on average, 2·79 kg/m2 (95% CI 2·31-3·28) lower for women and 1·28 kg/m2 (1·02-1·54) lower for men than in the high-income western region. In every region, hypertension prevalence increased with both BMI and WHtR. Models with either of these two adiposity metrics had virtually identical C-statistics and NRIs for every region and sex, with C-statistics ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 and NRIs ranging from 0·34 to 0·57 in different region and sex combinations. When both BMI and WHtR were used, performance improved only slightly compared with using either adiposity measure alone. INTERPRETATION: BMI can distinguish young and middle-aged adults with higher versus lower amounts of abdominal adiposity with moderate-to-high accuracy, and both BMI and WHtR distinguish people with or without hypertension. However, at the same BMI level, people in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa, have higher WHtR than in the other regions. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK).

Waterborne Cryptosporidium species and Giardia duodenalis in resources of MENA: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

This review explores our understanding of Cryptosporidium species and Giardia duodenalis distribution in Middle East and North African (MENA) water resources. Results emphasize that Cryptosporidium species (sp.) and G. duodenalis (oo)cysts are present in distinct categories of water in ten MENA countries. Cryptosporidium sp. proportional prevalence in the MENA region was 24.5% (95% CI 16.3-33.8), while G. duodenalis prevalence was 37.7% (95% CI 21.9-55.1). Raw wastewater and surface water were the water categories most significantly impacted. Both parasites were reported in the various types of MENA drinking waters. The most frequent species/genotypes reported were C. hominis, C. parvum, and G. duodenalis assemblage A. Despite the high prevalence of (oo)cysts reported, we should consider the absence of waterborne outbreaks. This indicates significant underestimation and underreporting of both parasites in MENA. Stakeholders should apply water contamination legislation to eradicate Cryptosporidium sp. and G. duodenalis (oo)cysts from water resources/categories.

Epidemiology of Trichomonas vaginalis infection in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.

BACKGROUND: Trichomoniasis, caused by the parasite Trichomonas vaginalis (TV), remains an underappreciated sexually transmitted infection (STI), primarily due to inadequate understanding of its epidemiology and public health implications. This study aimed to characterize TV epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). METHODS: Systematic review and analysis of evidence sourced from international, regional, and national databases were conducted. Findings were reported following PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed to determine pooled mean prevalence, investigate associations with prevalence, and identify sources of between-study heterogeneity. FINDINGS: The review identified 263 relevant publications, encompassing 462 TV prevalence measures. The pooled mean TV prevalence was estimated as follows: 4.7% (95% CI: 3.9-5.6%) in the general population of women, 17.2% (95% CI: 5.4-33.6%) among intermediate-risk populations, 10.3% (95% CI: 6.2-15.3%) among female sex workers, 13.9% (95% CI: 12.3-15.6%) among symptomatic women, 7.4% (95% CI: 1.9-15.5%) among infertility clinic attendees, 2.3% (95% CI: 0.1-6.3%) among women with miscarriages or ectopic pregnancies, and 1.6% (95% CI: 0.8-2.7%) among STI clinic attendees. Limited data were found for men. Multivariable meta-regressions explained >40% of the prevalence variation, unveiling a hierarchical prevalence pattern by population type, an inverse correlation with national income, and a prevalence decline at a rate of 1% per calendar year. INTERPRETATION: Despite conservative sexual norms, MENA has a substantial TV prevalence, comparable to the global TV prevalence. The unexpectedly high prevalence of this curable infection may, in part, be attributed to limited access to and underutilization of STI screening and treatment services. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Qatar Research, Development, and Innovation Council [ARG01-0522-230273] and by the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar.

The burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Middle East and North Africa region and its associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation and flutter (AFF) are the most common cardiac arrhythmias globally, contributing to substantial morbidity and mortality. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region face unique challenges in managing cardiovascular diseases, including AFF, due to diverse sociodemographic factors and healthcare infrastructure variability. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the burden of AFF in MENA from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, a comprehensive source incorporating diverse data inputs. The study collected global, regional, and national Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR), and Age-Standardized Disability-Adjusted Rate (ASDR), Mortality across sex, age groups, and years. LOESS regression was employed to determine the relationship between age-standardized rates attributed to AFF and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). RESULTS: The study found minimal change in ASIR of AFF in MENA from 1990 to 2019, with a slight increase observed in ASMR and ASDR during the same period. Notably, AFF burden was consistently higher in females compared to males, with age showing a direct positive relationship with AFF burden. Iraq, Iran, and Turkey exhibited the highest ASIR, while Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman had the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. Conversely, Kuwait, Libya, and Turkey displayed the lowest ASMR and ASDR rates. CONCLUSION: This study underscores the persistent burden of AFF in MENA and identifies significant disparities across countries. High systolic blood pressure emerged as a prominent risk factor for mortality in AFF patients. Findings provide crucial insights for policy-making efforts, resource allocation, and intervention strategies aimed at reducing the burden of cardiovascular diseases in the MENA region.

The indirect costs of vaccine-preventable cancer mortality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

BACKGROUND: Infections are responsible for ∼13% of cancer cases worldwide, with human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B (HBV) among the infections associated with cancer for which vaccines are available. The aim of this study was to estimate the indirect cost of premature mortality related to cancers caused by HPV and HBV in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. METHODS: The number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 2019 from four HPV-related cancers: cervical cancer, oral cavity cancer, laryngeal cancer, and oropharynx cancer, as well as HBV-related liver cancer were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease database. HPV-attributable fractions were applied to deaths and YLL. The human capital approach was used to measure productivity loss, through value of YLL (VYLL), and estimated using gross domestic product per capita (World Bank; in USD). Seventeen countries in the MENA region were included. Four countries in the region were not included due to data availability. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 11,645 potentially vaccine-preventable cancer-related deaths across the MENA region. This resulted in an indirect cost of $1,688,821,605, with 76.1% of this accrued in the Middle East ($1,284,923,633). The number of deaths in the Middle East (5,986) were similar to Northern Africa (5,659) but YLL were higher in Northern Africa (179,425) compared to the Middle East (169,207). The highest indirect cost per death occurred in Qatar ($1,378,991), compared to $14,962 in Sudan. Oral cavity cancer had the highest VYLL per death ($186,084). CONCLUSIONS: There is a high burden of premature mortality and indirect costs of potentially vaccine-preventable cancer-related deaths in the MENA region. Improved vaccination program implementation, increased vaccine coverage of HPV and HBV vaccinations, and continued prioritization of public health measures, such as screening, could effectively reduce premature mortality and associated costs.

Multiple sclerosis: economic burden, therapeutic advances, and future forecasts in the Middle East and North Africa region.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a persistent condition characterized by immune-mediated processes in the central nervous system, affecting around 2.8 million individuals globally. While historically less prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, recent trends mirror the global rise in MS. AREA COVERED: The impact of MS is substantial, particularly in the MENA region, with costs per patient surpassing nominal GDP per capita in certain countries. Disease-modifying therapies aim to alleviate MS effects, but challenges persist, especially in managing progressive MS as it shifts from inflammatory to neurodegenerative phases. Limited resources in the MENA region hinder care delivery, though awareness initiatives and multidisciplinary centers are emerging. Contrary to global projections of a decline in the MS market, the MENA region is poised for growth due to increased prevalence, healthcare expenditures, and infrastructure investments. EXPERT OPINION: This review underscores the urgent necessity for effective treatments, robust disease management, and early diagnosis in tackling MS's repercussions in the MENA region. Bolstering resources tailored to MS patients and elevating the quality of care stand as pivotal strategies for enhancing health outcomes in this context. Taking decisive action holds the key to enhancing the overall well-being of individuals grappling with MS.

A review of oral health promotion programmes in Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Background: Oral health conditions, such as dental caries, periodontal disease, tooth loss, dental fluorosis, dental trauma, and oral cancer, are prevalent in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region. However, there has been no systematic review of oral health promotion interventions in the region. Aims: To review existing literature on oral health promotion programmes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and recommend improvements for the future. Method: We reviewed on PubMed and Google Scholar 61 articles published in the Eastern Mediterranean Region between 2010 and 2023. Quality assessment of included studies was performed using established criteria. We used the content analysis approach to create appropriate themes from the studies and to document meaningful conclusions about oral health promotion. Results: Majority of the studies were cross-sectional, a few were randomized controlled, quasi-experimental, longitudinal studies, or reviews. Oral health problems identified included poor oral health knowledge, dental caries, periodontal disease, tooth loss, dental fluorosis, and oral cancer. Although oral disorders were common in most of the countries, very few have implemented oral health promotion programmes. Conclusion: We recommend prioritization of oral health promotion programmes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region to tackle the diverse oral health challenges. To be effective, such programmes should be region- and context-specific. More studies on oral health promotion are needed in the region.

Kidney cancer in the Middle East and North Africa region: a 30-year analysis (1990-2019).

Kidney cancer, a type of urogenital cancer, imposes a high burden on patients. Despite this, no recent research has evaluated the burden of this type of cancer in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study explored the burden of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2019 according to age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI). The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data was utilized to estimate the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by kidney cancer. These estimates were reported as counts and as age-standardised rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The estimated age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of kidney cancer in 2019 were 3.2 (2.8-3.6), 1.4 (1.2-1.6), and 37.2 (32.0-42.6) per 100,000, respectively. Over the period from 1990 to 2019, these rates have increased by 98.0%, 48.9%, and 37.7%, respectively. In 2019, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Lebanon had the largest age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates. The smallest age-standardised incidence rates were seen in Yemen, Afghanistan, and the Syrian Arab Republic. Additionally, the smallest age-standardised mortality and DALY rates were observed in the Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen, and Morocco. The highest incidence rates were found among individuals aged 75-79 in both males and females. In 2019, the MENA/Global DALY ratio exceeded one for females aged 5-19 age and males aged 5-14, compared to 1990age groups in males. The burden of kidney cancer consistently rose with increasing SDI levels from 1990 to 2019. The increasing burden of kidney cancer highlights the urgent need for interventions aimed at improving early diagnosis and treatment in the region.

Burden of diseases due to high systolic blood pressure in the Middle East and North Africa region from 1990 to 2019.

High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is associated with several metabolic and non-metabolic disorders. This research aimed to document the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to HSBP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, underlying cause and socio-demographic index (SDI). We used the methodological framework and data drawn from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 to identify the burden of diseases attributable to HSBP, from 1990 to 2019, in the MENA region. The estimates reported were presented as counts, population-attributable fractions, and age-standardised rates (per 100,000), along with 95% uncertainty intervals. In 2019, 803.6 thousand (687.1 to 923.8) deaths were attributed to HSBP in MENA, which accounted for 25.9% (22.9-28.6%) of all deaths. The number of regional DALYs caused by HSBP in 2019 was 19.0 million (16.3-21.9 million), which accounted for 11.6% (10.1-13.3%) of all DALYs, and was 23.4% (15.9-31.5%) lower than in 1990. The highest age-standardised DALY rate for 2019 was observed in Afghanistan, with the lowest in Kuwait. Additionally, the DALY rate in MENA rose with age for both sexs. Furthermore, a negative linear relationship was found between SDI and the age-standardised DALY rates. The region has a substantial HSBP-related burden. Policymakers and healthcare professionals should prioritize interventions that effectively promote the early detection of HSBP, access to quality healthcare, and lifestyle modifications to mitigate the HSBP burden in the MENA countries.

The Atrial FibriLlatiOn (FLOW-AF) Registry in the Middle East and North Africa: Patient Characteristics, Treatment Patterns and Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Limited data on atrial fibrillation (AF) are available from the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). The aim of the FLOW-AF registry was to evaluate the characteristics, treatment patterns, and clinical and economic outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in MENA. METHODS: This multi-center, prospective, observational study (the FLOW-AF registry) enrolled patients newly diagnosed with NVAF across Egypt, Lebanon, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. The data collection occurred at enrollment (baseline) and after 6- and 12-months (follow-up). Baseline data included demographics, AF characteristics, medical history, and anti-thrombotic treatment patterns. Clinical events, healthcare resource utilization, and direct costs were collected at follow-up. RESULTS: The study enrolled a total of 1418 patients (52.7% males and 47.3% females). The mean age of the patients was 64.5 years and 90.6% were white. The mean (standard deviation) CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores were 2.7 (1.6) and 1.6 (1.2), respectively. Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants, antiplatelet therapy, and vitamin K antagonists were prescribed to 65.8%, 16.4%, and 12.9% patients, respectively. During follow-up, the following rates of clinical outcomes were observed: bleeding events (1.7%), transient ischemic attack (1.7%), all-cause mortality (1.7%), stroke (0.6%), myocardial infarction (0.2%), and systemic embolism (0.08%). CONCLUSIONS: This MENA patient population was younger and had lower mean baseline CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. The rates of clinical outcomes over 1-year in this study were low. Longer follow-up is required to comprehensively assess clinical outcomes in this patient population.

Infective Endocarditis in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990‒2019: Updates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Infective endocarditis (IE), a severe and economically impactful condition, lacks substantial epidemiological data in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. This study focused on analyzing the trends and burden of IE in NAME from 1990 to 2019, taking into account factors like age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI). METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease data from 1990 to 2019 was retrieved from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized rates (ASR) for IE incidence increased by 59%, and prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) rose by 12% and 9%, respectively, while the ASRs for deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLLs) saw reductions of 22%, 34%, and 34% in the NAME region. Death rates among children under five declined by 72%. Gender and the SDI did not significantly influence these changes. Saudi Arabia witnessed the most significant increase in ASR of IE incidence since 1990, while Turkey had the highest rates in 2019. The year 2019 also saw the highest death rate among those aged 70 and over, with over 91000 DALYs from IE. DALYs decreased by 71.5% for children under five from 1990 to 2019 but remained stable for individuals in their seventies. Jordan showed the most notable decrease in ASRs for deaths, DALYs, and YLLs among children under five. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the changing epidemiology of IE in the NAME region, recommending the establishment of multidisciplinary IE registries, antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines for healthcare-associated IE, and strategies to control antimicrobial resistance as key mitigation measures.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. METHODS: In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023. RESULTS: The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration.

The burden of schizophrenia in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019.

Schizophrenia ranks as the third-most common cause of disability among mental disorders globally. This study presents findings on the prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) as a result of schizophrenia in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), stratified by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI). We collected publicly accessible data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. This study reports the burden of schizophrenia, from 1990 to 2019, for the 21 countries that comprise MENA. In 2019, MENA exhibited an age-standardised point prevalence of 248.2, an incidence rate of 14.7 and an YLD rate of 158.7 per 100,000, which have not changed substantially between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, the age-standardised YLD rate was highest in Qatar and lowest in Afghanistan. No MENA countries demonstrated noteworthy changes in the burden of schizophrenia from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, in 2019, the highest number of prevalent cases and the point prevalence were observed among those aged 35-39, with a higher prevalence among males in almost all age categories. Additionally, in 2019, the age-standardised YLD rates in MENA were below the worldwide average. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the burden of schizophrenia and the SDI from 1990 to 2019. The disease burden of schizophrenia has remained relatively stable over the past thirty years. Nevertheless, as the regional life-expectancy continues to increase, the burden of schizophrenia is also expected to rise. Therefore, early planning for the increase in the burden of the disease is urgently needed in the region.

Public Health Responses to CBRN Terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa.

OBJECTIVE: Escalating global challenges (such as disasters, conflict, and climate change) underline the importance of addressing Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) terrorism for sustainable public health strategies. This study aims to provide a comprehensive epidemiological analysis of CBRN incidents in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, emphasizing the necessity of sustainable responses to safeguard healthcare infrastructures. METHOD: Utilizing a retrospective approach, this research analyzes data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) covering the period from 2003 to 2020. The study focuses on examining the frequency, characteristics, and consequences of CBRN incidents in the MENA region to identify patterns and trends that pose significant challenges to public health systems. RESULTS: The analysis revealed a significant clustering of CBRN incidents in Iraq and Syria, with a predominant involvement of chemical agents. These findings indicate the extensive impact of CBRN terrorism on healthcare infrastructures, highlighting the challenges in providing immediate health responses and the necessity for long-term recovery strategies. CONCLUSIONS: The study underscores the need for improved healthcare preparedness, robust emergency response systems, and the development of sustainable public health policies. Advocating for international collaboration, the research contributes to the strategic adaptation of healthcare systems to mitigate the impacts of CBRN terrorism, ensuring preparedness for future incidents in the MENA region and beyond.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making. METHODS: In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled. INTERPRETATION: The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in the Middle East and Northern Africa: A population-based cancer registry study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 2nd most common cancer and 3rd most common cause of death in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. We aimed to explore CRC stage at diagnosis data from population-based cancer registries in MENA countries. In 2021, we launched a Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (GICR) survey on staging practices and breast and CRC stage distributions in MENA. According to the survey results, population-based data on TNM stage for CRC were available from six registries in five countries (Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Türkiye, UAE). The proportion of cases with unknown TNM stage ranged from 14% in Oman to 47% in Casablanca, Morocco. The distribution of CRC cases with known stage showed TNM stage IV proportions of 26-45%, while the proportions of stage I cancers were lowest in Morocco (≤7%), and highest (19%) in Izmir, Türkiye. Summary extent of disease data was available from six additional registries and four additional countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar). In summary, the proportions of CRC diagnosed with distant metastases in Oman, Bahrain and UAE were lower than other MENA countries in our study, but higher than in European and the US populations. Harmonising the use of staging systems and focusing stage data collection efforts on major cancers, such as CRC, is needed to monitor and evaluate progress in CRC control in the region.