The refinery of the future.

Fossil fuels-coal, oil and gas-supply most of the world's energy and also form the basis of many products essential for everyday life. Their use is the largest contributor to the carbon dioxide emissions that drive global climate change, prompting joint efforts to find renewable alternatives that might enable a carbon-neutral society by as early as 2050. There are clear paths for renewable electricity to replace fossil-fuel-based energy, but the transport fuels and chemicals produced in oil refineries will still be needed. We can attempt to close the carbon cycle associated with their use by electrifying refinery processes and by changing the raw materials that go into a refinery from fossils fuels to carbon dioxide for making hydrocarbon fuels and to agricultural and municipal waste for making chemicals and polymers. We argue that, with sufficient long-term commitment and support, the science and technology for such a completely fossil-free refinery, delivering the products required after 2050 (less fuels, more chemicals), could be developed. This future refinery will require substantially larger areas and greater mineral resources than is the case at present and critically depends on the capacity to generate large amounts of renewable energy for hydrogen production and carbon dioxide capture.

China's Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Estimated Using Surface Observations of Coemitted NO2.

Accurate estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions are of great importance for climate prediction and mitigation regulations but remain a significant challenge for accounting methods relying on economic statistics and emission factors. In this study, we employed a regional data assimilation framework to assimilate in situ NO2 observations, allowing us to combine observation-constrained NOx emissions coemitted with FFCO2 and grid-specific CO2-to-NOx emission ratios to infer the daily FFCO2 emissions over China. The estimated national total for 2016 was 11.4 PgCO2·yr-1, with an uncertainty (1σ) of 1.5 PgCO2·yr-1 that accounted for errors associated with atmospheric transport, inversion framework parameters, and CO2-to-NOx emission ratios. Our findings indicated that widely used "bottom-up" emission inventories generally ignore numerous activity level statistics of FFCO2 related to energy industries and power plants in western China, whereas the inventories are significantly overestimated in developed regions and key urban areas owing to exaggerated emission factors and inexact spatial disaggregation. The optimized FFCO2 estimate exhibited more distinct seasonality with a significant increase in emissions in winter. These findings advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal regime of FFCO2 emissions in China.

Markov chain-based impact analysis of the pandemic Covid-19 outbreak on global primary energy consumption mix.

The historic evolution of global primary energy consumption (GPEC) mix, comprising of fossil (liquid petroleum, gaseous and coal fuels) and non-fossil (nuclear, hydro and other renewables) energy sources while highlighting the impact of the novel corona virus 2019 pandemic outbreak, has been examined through this study. GPEC data of 2005-2021 has been taken from the annually published reports by British Petroleum. The equilibrium state, a property of the classical predictive modeling based on Markov chain, is employed as an investigative tool. The pandemic outbreak has proved to be a blessing in disguise for global energy sector through, at least temporarily, reducing the burden on environment in terms of reducing demand for fossil energy sources. Some significant long term impacts of the pandemic occurred in second and third years (2021 and 2022) after its outbreak in 2019 rather than in first year (2020) like the penetration of other energy sources along with hydro and renewable ones in GPEC. Novelty of this research lies within the application of the equilibrium state feature of compositional Markov chain based prediction upon GPEC mix. The analysis into the past trends suggests the advancement towards a better global energy future comprising of cleaner fossil resources (mainly natural gas), along with nuclear, hydro and renewable ones in the long run.

Decarbonizing energy: Evaluating fossil fuel displacement by renewables in OECD countries.

Energy transition to greener systems has been a focal point in climate policy agendas across countries as the negative environmental impacts of fossil fuel technologies have become more evident Displacing fossil fuels with clean energy alternatives in this regard is essential for meeting global climate objectives. In this context, the study analyzes the role of disaggregated renewable energy sources on fossil fuel displacement in 36 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries in the period 2000-2020. The findings demonstrate a discernible trend in the displacement of fossil fuels by various forms of renewable energy sources. It is found that to effectively displace 1% of fossil fuels, it is necessary to achieve an average increase of 1.15% in renewable generation capacity. In addition, a one-to-one displacement of fossil fuels occurs with hydropower, demonstrating its higher level of competitiveness and effectiveness in displacing fossil fuels. Moreover, there is a partial displacement of fossil fuels by solar and wind power. These findings suggest that renewable energy sources are progressively advancing towards effectively displacing fossil fuels.

Clean energy transition and climate vulnerabilities: A comparative analysis of European and non-European developed countries.

Currently, the world faces an existential threat of climate change, and every government across the globe is trying to come up with strategies to tackle the severity of climate change in every way possible. To this end, the use of clean energy rather than fossil fuel energy sources is critical, as it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and pave the way for carbon neutrality. This study examines the impact of the energy cleanability gap on four different climate vulnerabilities, such as ecosystem, food, health, and housing vulnerabilities, considering 47 European and non-European high-income countries. The study considers samples from 2002 to 2019. This study precedes the empirical analysis in the context of a quadratic relationship between the energy cleanability gap and climate vulnerability. The study uses system-generalized methods of the moment as the main technique, while panel quantile regression is a robustness analysis. Fixed effect and random effect models have also been incorporated. The study finds that the energy cleanability gap and all four climate vulnerabilities demonstrate a U-shaped relationship in both European and non-European countries, implying that when the energy cleanability gap increases, climate vulnerability decreases, but after reaching a certain threshold, it starts to increase. Development expenditure is found to be negatively affecting food and health vulnerabilities in European nations, while it increases food vulnerability and decreases health vulnerability in non-European nations. Regarding industrialization's impact on climate vulnerabilities, the study finds opposite effects for the European and non-European economies. On the other hand, for both groups, trade openness decreases climate vulnerabilities. Based on these results, the study recommends speeding up the energy transition process from fossil fuel energy resources towards clean energy resources to obtain carbon neutrality in both European and non-European groups.

Political factors, carbon emissions, and life expectancy in India: Implications for the Sustainable Development Goal 3.

This study examines the nexus among political factors, carbon emissions, and life expectancy between 1990 and 2020 in India. Data for this study was extracted from the World Bank Development indicators, after which it was subjected to econometrics analysis. The results showed that on averages, between 1990 and 2020, India experienced a life expectancy around 65 years. Fossil fuel energy consumption represents a small proportion of total energy consumption in India. However, carbon emissions and life expectancy have a positive and significant relationship. Fossil fuel usage and life expectancy possess a significantly positive relationship (FFEC = 0.044128, P-value = 0.0023) Moreover, government effectiveness and life expectancy have a significant direct relationship. Political stability and life expectancy have a significant negative relationship in the country. We conclude that policymakers in India should ensure that carbon emissions and fossil fuel usage in India do not pose a threat to life expectancy. Efforts should be put in place by policymakers in India to increase life expectancy , a strategic component of SDG 3- good health and well being for all at all ages, by ensuring stable political climate, good governance and efficient health enhanced public policies.

Cette étude examine le lien entre les facteurs politiques, les émissions de carbone et l'espérance de vie entre 1990 et 2020 en Inde. Les données de cette étude ont été extraites des indicateurs de développement de la Banque mondiale, après quoi elles ont été soumises à une analyse économétrique. Les résultats ont montré qu'en moyenne, entre 1990 et 2020, l'Inde a connu une espérance de vie d'environ 65 ans. La consommation d'énergie fossile représente une petite proportion de la consommation totale d'énergie en Inde. Cependant, les émissions de carbone et l'espérance de vie ont une relation positive et significative. L'utilisation de combustibles fossiles et l'espérance de vie possèdent une relation significativement positive (FFEC = 0,044128, valeur P = 0,0023). De plus, l'efficacité du gouvernement et l'espérance de vie ont une relation directe significative. La stabilité politique et l'espérance de vie ont une relation négative significative dans le pays. Nous concluons que les décideurs politiques indiens devraient veiller à ce que les émissions de carbone et l'utilisation de combustibles fossiles en Inde ne constituent pas une menace pour l'espérance de vie. Des efforts devraient être mis en place par les décideurs politiques indiens pour augmenter l'espérance de vie, une composante stratégique de l'ODD 3 - bonne santé et bien-être pour tous à tout âge, en garantissant un climat politique stable, une bonne gouvernance et des politiques publiques efficaces et améliorées en matière de santé.

Microbial biotechnology and beyond: A roadmap for sustainable development and climate mitigation in the transition from fossil fuels to green chemistry.

Our planet, which operates as a closed system, is facing increasing entropy due to human activities such as the overexploitation of natural resources and fossil fuel use. The COP28 in Dubai emphasized the urgency to abandon fossil fuels, recognizing them as the primary cause of human-induced environmental changes, while highlighting the need to transition to renewable energies. We promote the crucial role of microbes for sustaining biogenic cycles to combat climate change and the economic potential of synthetic biology tools for producing diverse non-fossil fuels and chemicals, thus contributing to emission reduction in transport and industry. The shift to 'green chemistry' encounters challenges, derived from the availability of non-food residues and waste (mainly lignocellulosic) as raw material, the construction of cost-effective bioprocessing plants, product recovery from fermentation broths and the utilization of leftover lignin residues for synthesizing new chemicals, aligning with circular economy and sustainable development goals. To meet the Paris Agreement goals, an urgent global shift to low-carbon, renewable sources is imperative, ultimately leading to the cessation of our reliance on fossil fuels.

What is China's efficient power generation portfolio under carbon neutrality target? An empirical analysis considering flexibility and system cost.

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is the most promising form of primary generation under a carbon neutrality target due to its environmental benefits, incentive policy, and technological progress. However, the increasing proportion of VRE generation, such as solar and wind power, has sharply increased integration cost and reduced power grid stability. This study uses portfolio theory to investigate China's optimal power generation portfolio by 2050 considering flexibility constraint and system cost, including technical and integration costs. The results demonstrate that non-fossil-fuel power generation technologies have cost and emission reduction advantages over fossil-fuel-based technologies. VRE generation technologies must be developed in synergy with other forms of power generation when considering flexibility requirement and integration cost. A complete phase-out of fossil-fuel power generation technologies in China appears unlikely in the study period. Gas-fired and coal-fired power generation are the pillar forms of power generation to meet future flexibility needs.

Infectious Diseases in a Changing Climate.

This JAMA Insights in the Climate Change and Health series discusses the importance of clinicians having awareness of changes in the geographic range, seasonality, and intensity of transmission of infectious diseases to help them diagnose, treat, and prevent these diseases.

Do renewable energy sources perfectly displace non-renewable energy sources? Evidence from Asia-Pacific economies.

The existing scholarly discourse surrounding the energy transition has long operated on the assumption of perfect displacement of non-renewable energy. However, an evolving set of studies highlights an intricate web of inefficiencies and complexities that prevent the perfect displacement of fossil fuel energy with renewable energy production. Since this could carry serious implications for the environmental targets of several economies, it is crucial to accurately and continuously measure the actual extent of fossil fuel displacement. Within this framework, this study empirically investigates the extent of non-renewable energy displacement by renewable energy for a balanced panel of seven Asia-Pacific (APAC) countries between 1989 and 2015. The outcome function also controls for globalisation, real GDP per capita, and crude oil prices. After implementing the necessary diagnostics, the panel cointegration establishes a significant long-run relationship among the selected variables. The PMG-ARDL estimation indicates that renewable energy production and globalisation significantly reduce the fossil fuel energy production, whereas real GDP per capita and crude oil prices induce it positively. However, the coefficient of renewable energy production is only - 0.39, indicating that more than 2.5 units of renewable electricity are necessary to displace a unit of non-renewable energy. As such, this study concludes that the current energy transition in Asia-Pacific region is not perfect. These results are robust to the usage of the FGLS estimation technique. The study suggests the adoption of a new energy transition that allows greater displacement of fossil fuel energy as well as gradual reduction in overall energy use.

Think tanks and climate obstruction: Atlas affiliates in Canada.

This paper provides a longitudinal social network and content analysis of Canadian think tanks affiliated with the Atlas network, analyzing their efforts to obstruct climate action over the last two decades. Network analysis reveals extensive and deepening board interlocks and joint memberships between these think tanks and the fossil fuel industry, other policy-planning organizations within and beyond Canada, and academic institutions. Consistent with and rooted in network ties, Atlas members produce a large and growing volume of climate-related content, including content that denies the reality and impacts of climate change, promotes and defends the fossil fuel sector, and opposes climate policy and action. Atlas affiliates are argued to be at the core of a reactionary segment of Canada's elite policy-planning network opposed to virtually all forms of climate action, while the frames and campaigns they deploy are seen as a force obstructing progress on climate change.

Cet article propose une analyse longitudinale des réseaux sociaux et du contenu des groupes de réflexion canadiens affiliés au réseau Atlas, en analysant leurs efforts d'obstruction à l'action climatique au cours des deux dernières décennies. L'analyse des réseaux révèle des liens étendus et de plus en plus profonds entre les conseils d'administration et les membres conjoints de ces groupes de réflexion et l'industrie des combustibles fossiles, d'autres organisations de planification politique au Canada et à l'étranger, ainsi que des institutions universitaires. En accord avec les liens du réseau et enracinés dans ceux­ci, les membres de l'Atlas produisent un volume important et croissant de contenus liés au climat, y compris des contenus qui nient la réalité et les impacts du changement climatique, promeuvent et défendent le secteur des combustibles fossiles et s'opposent aux politiques et actions climatiques. Les affiliés d'Atlas sont considérés comme étant au cœur d'un segment réactionnaire du réseau d'élite de planification politique du Canada opposé à pratiquement toutes les formes d'action climatique, tandis que les cadres et les campagnes qu'ils déploient sont perçus comme une force qui entrave les progrès en matière de changement climatique.

First recorded presence of anthropogenic fly-ash particles in coral skeletons.

Fly-ash particles formed during industrial fossil-fuel combustion show a globally observed rapid increase in concentration within natural archives post-1950 and have been proposed as a marker for the Anthropocene Epoch. Here, we present the first record of fly-ash particles incorporated into coral skeletons. Particles are present in Mediterranean corals between CE 1957 and 1992 at concentrations of 8-30 g-1 coral, mirroring the period of increased industrial activity in the area, and corroborating with spheroidal carbonaceous particle (SCP) records globally. The findings have important implications for the use of SCPs as markers in natural archives. With the exception of microplastics, this is the first evidence of particulate contamination in corals collected from natural environments. Further research is needed to understand incorporation pathways into coral skeletons, any subsequent ecotoxicological impact of contaminants, and the influence on overall coral health globally.

Asymmetric impact of patents on green technologies on Algeria's Ecological Future.

This study examines how patents on green technologies impact Algeria's ecological footprint from 1990 to 2022 while controlling for economic growth and energy consumption. The objectives are to analyze the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks in these drivers on ecological footprint and provide policy insights on leveraging innovations and growth while minimizing environmental harm. Given recent major structural shifts in Algeria's economy, time series data exhibits nonlinear dynamics. To accommodate this nonlinearity, the study employs an innovative nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach. The findings indicate that an upsurge in green technologies (termed as a positive shock) significantly reduces the ecological footprint, thereby enhancing ecological sustainability. Interestingly, a decline in green technologies (termed as a negative shock) also contributes to reducing the ecological footprint. This highlights the crucial role of clean technologies in mitigating ecological damage in both scenarios. Conversely, a positive shock in economic growth increases ecological footprint, underscoring the imperative for environmentally friendly policies in tandem with economic expansion. Negative shocks, however, have minimal impact. In a similar vein, positive shock in energy consumption increases ecological footprint, underlining the importance of transitioning towards cleaner energy sources. Negative shock has a smaller but still noticeable effect. The results confirm asymmetric impacts, with positive and negative changes in the drivers affecting Algeria's ecological footprint differently. To ensure long-term economic and ecological stability, Algeria should prioritize eco-innovation and green technology development. This will reduce dependence on fossil fuels and create new, sustainable industries.

Do renewable energy and human capital facilitate the improvement of environmental quality in the United States? A new perspective on environmental issues with the load capacity factor.

Recently, countries have been making intensive efforts to alleviate the burden on the environment and to make environmental conditions sustainable. In this context, our study aims to investigate the long-term impact of renewable energy consumption (REC) and human capital (HC) by considering the load capacity factor (LCF). We also investigate the long-term impact of economic growth (Y) and non-renewable energy consumption (NREC) on the LCF. In this context, we analyze annual data for the U.S. for the period 1965-2018 using the newly developed augmented ARDL (AARDL) approach. The long-term empirical results show the following. i) Increases in Y negatively affect LCF and deteriorate environmental quality. ii) Increases in NREC negatively affect LCF and accelerate the deterioration of environmental quality. iii) REC has no significant impact on environmental quality. iv) Increases in HC support the improvement of environmental quality. The empirical results show that contrary to expectations, renewable energy consumption does not have a significant impact on environmental quality in the U.S., whereas human capital is an important factor in improving environmental quality. In this context, US policymakers should pave the way for more investment in eco-friendly renewable energy investments and human capital to establish sustainable environmental quality. Policymakers should also take steps to reduce the use of fossil fuels.